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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #481
  • Edited Jan 27, 2022 12:15am Jan 26, 2022 2:05pm | Edited Jan 27, 2022 12:15am
Quoting gepards
{quote} this is awesome! because if you know how you cant win then do oposite and will win I saw this idea already somewhere here in ff... do not pretend to be an inventor. But here it is: We all who code EAs know that over-optimization is bad. Strategy is simple - develop stupid EAs, overoptimize and run with reverse logic. Here I made one such dumb EA - when price run n pips open reversal deal. fixed SL and TP. Here optimized 2019 - 2020 - best-overoptimized setup (looks promising, right? ): {image} Ok try to forward test this...
What happens in the past, stay in the past. The past doesn't influence the future. It's only the NOW that influence the future. Once now becomes a then, it then becomes irrelevant.

Entropy always increases.

da/DT>=0

S = K log W

Universal laws that can't be changed.

Do everything you can while you're still alive to influence your future and for your love ones because once you're in a grave, you're done.

How is this different from the charts or back testing an EA?

Data gets irrelevant by every second that passes
  • #482
  • Jan 26, 2022 2:44pm Jan 26, 2022 2:44pm
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} What happens in the past, stay in the past. The past doesn't influence the future. It's only the NOW that influence the future. Once now becomes a then, it then becomes irrelevant. Antropy always increases. da/DT>=0 S = K log W Universal laws that can't be changed. Do everything you can while you're still alive to influence your future and for your love ones because once you're in a grave, you're done. How is this different from the charts or back testing an EA? Data gets irrelevant by every second that passes

Is "Antropy" a real word and if so what does it mean?
  • #483
  • Jan 26, 2022 9:07pm Jan 26, 2022 9:07pm
Quoting edge540
{quote} Is "Antropy" a real word and if so what does it mean?
I think his meant Entropy.
  • #484
  • Jan 26, 2022 11:08pm Jan 26, 2022 11:08pm
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} What happens in the past, stay in the past. The past doesn't influence the future. It's only the NOW that influence the future. Once now becomes a then, it then becomes irrelevant.
Buy cheeaper sell when more expensive. Nothing more in trading.

How do you know when it is "cheeaper" or "more expensive"? You compare.

What you compare? NOW with what? PAST.

To make decision about future action (buy or sell) you rely on the past. Therefore past is very relevant and it influence your future.
  • #485
  • Jan 27, 2022 12:14am Jan 27, 2022 12:14am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Buy cheeaper sell when more expensive. Nothing more in trading. How do you know when it is "cheeaper" or "more expensive"? You compare. What you compare? NOW with what? PAST. To make decision about future action (buy or sell) you rely on the past. Therefore past is very relevant and it influence your future.
Except that Currencies are not assets, you see...

Currencies have no intrinsic or standalone value by itself. For example, we can assess whether the stock market is over or undervalued by using fundamental economic data embedded in the equity market. Corporate earnings, profit margins, P/E multiples, dividend yields and the like can all be measured and assessed to determine if the stock market is rich or cheap.

Not so with currencies. We cannot say whether the US Dollar is overvalued or undervalued on a standalone basis. We can only make this determination relative to another currency. For example, we can say that the USD is expensive compared to the Euro or cheap compared to the British Pound. Currencies are not an asset class and there is no long-term risk premium to capture. Instead, they are merely a relative trade compared to another currency.

And that is not 'beliefs' but facts!

It's just a utility.
  • #486
  • Jan 27, 2022 12:25am Jan 27, 2022 12:25am
Want to know what's misleading and stupid? The lie we've all been told growing up. "Son, I want you to go to school and study hard. Get your degree, then get a nice secure job with benefits and you're set for life. When you retire the job and the government would take care of you". Bull. Soon the middle class would disappear and there would just remain 2, the rich and poor. Everyone with one source of income isn't going to make it. So excuse me while I chase my dream and find an exit from the trap of life.
Play the hand you were dealt.
  • #487
  • Jan 27, 2022 12:36am Jan 27, 2022 12:36am
My last Post and conclusion.

Retail trading is no different than playing roulette in a casino.

It's a probabilistic game of gambling.

Focus on probabilities and risk management. Cause that's all there is to it.

Yes every education that's out there about retail trading is useless and it's only purpose is to get you to trade. Commissions, commissions

No one takes your Money, your money just lose value. Market makers love retail traders because they are all blind folded. It's like taking candy from a baby. Market makers sell candy to babies for £1 then minute later buy it back from baby for £0.5! 98% of the time. Easy money

And these babies have no fucken clue what's even going on. They don't even know what their stop loss means. They don't know that it's just a pending order to sell/buy the currency they are holding

They think a stoploss is supposed to just stay there untouched? Of course if someone find your stoplosses to be great offers, then they'll take it!

Good luck to you all, I hope your 'levels' make you great riches

The EA should be available on mql5 free market by first week of February.

Profits to you all
  • #488
  • Jan 27, 2022 1:53am Jan 27, 2022 1:53am
Quoting captalTrader
My last Post and conclusion. Retail trading is no different than playing roulette in a casino. It's a probabilistic game of gambling. Focus on probabilities and risk management. Cause that's all there is to it. Yes every education that's out there about retail trading is useless and it's only purpose is to get you to trade. Commissions, commissions No one takes your Money, your money just lose value. Market makers love retail traders because they are all blind folded. It's like taking candy from a baby....
is the thread finished?or you will post new reply?
  • #489
  • Jan 27, 2022 2:25am Jan 27, 2022 2:25am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Except that Currencies are not assets, you see... Currencies have no intrinsic or standalone value by itself. For example, we can assess whether the stock market is over or undervalued by using fundamental economic data embedded in the equity market. Corporate earnings, profit margins, P/E multiples, dividend yields and the like can all be measured and assessed to determine if the stock market is rich or cheap. Not so with currencies. We cannot say whether the US Dollar is overvalued or undervalued on a standalone basis. We can only make...
Quote
Financial assets derive value from a claim on future cash flows (e.g., stocks and bonds). ... Conversely, if the U.S. government were to lose all credibility overnight, the U.S. dollar, a financial asset, would become instantly worthless.

When you decide to go short on EURUSD you decide that USD will get more expensive and/or EUR will get cheaper. Compared to what? To the past...

The analysis of historical data is a must-have skill in trading to calculate risks and probabilities. And you are right - trading is all about risks and probabilities. Pure math. Like insurance businesses... they also work with risks/probabilities to calculate insurance policies premiums.
  • #490
  • Jan 27, 2022 3:40am Jan 27, 2022 3:40am
Quoting tetis
{quote} is the thread finished?or you will post new reply?
The thread is currently not going in the direction I started it for. All I do is come here hoping for new insights but all I do is argue. Every day it's a new guy.

Check last comment for example. Now I have to argue why past data doesn't affect Currencies like it does on the stock market. I'll have to explain to him that Stocks Vs currencies is two different animal species.

Everyone who interested on my idea and taking part in testing it in the next coming 3 months, you're welcomed to join me on on telegram. I'll share the channel just now
  • #491
  • Jan 27, 2022 3:49am Jan 27, 2022 3:49am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} The thread is currently not going in the direction I started it for. All I do is come here hoping for new insights but all I do is argue. Every day it's a new guy. Check last comment for example. Now I have to argue why past data doesn't affect Currencies like it does on the stock market. I'll have to explain to him that Stocks Vs currencies is two different animal species. Everyone who interested on my idea and taking part in testing it in the next coming 3 months, you're welcomed to join me on on telegram. I'll share the channel...
dont argue then

admit that past is important and that's it, but you here try to pretend like guru, advertise your guru telegram.. yes much better for you to invite newbies in telegram because nobody else would see what you speak to them.. here someone can check what you speak and point to misleading issues.
  • #492
  • Jan 27, 2022 4:10am Jan 27, 2022 4:10am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} What happens in the past, stay in the past. The past doesn't influence the future. It's only the NOW that influence the future. Once now becomes a then, it then becomes irrelevant. Entropy always increases. da/DT>=0 S = K log W Universal laws that can't be changed. Do everything you can while you're still alive to influence your future and for your love ones because once you're in a grave, you're done. How is this different from the charts or back testing an EA? Data gets irrelevant by every second that passes
If past is irrelevant why you show your EA trading history in MQL5 web site? That is past...it is irrelevant according to you
  • #493
  • Jan 27, 2022 4:19am Jan 27, 2022 4:19am
OMG is this thread turning into a commercial one?
  • #494
  • Jan 27, 2022 4:32am Jan 27, 2022 4:32am
Quoting tommydoginti
OMG is this thread turning into a commercial one?
How ?
  • #495
  • Jan 27, 2022 4:53am Jan 27, 2022 4:53am
Quoting gepards
{quote} If past is irrelevant why you show your EA trading history in MQL5 web site? That is past...it is irrelevant according to you
Are you arguing or you genuinely want to know?

The standard disclaimer 'Past performance does not guarantee future results' is familiar to anyone with a passing interest in investing.

It was going to be so stupid of me, coming telling people what they've been doing so long is WRONG without showing the correct or almost correct way.

Being critical without solutions is whining.

I came and suggested guys...

Look what if everyone focused on probabilities than the nonsense y'all been doing and failed 98% of the time!

I have tried it, look how's it's doing, looks like it's working doesn't?

In hope that someone will say aaaaaaah I think you got something here, what if you did this and that, it can be even better.

And before I know... Forex factory is full off probalistic strategies that actually make logical sense!!!

Oh well, that was just a dream Continue y'all, I'm really sorry I questioned your way of life. I had no right. I'm really sorry.

I'll continue writing my programs for now

No more telegram channel. Sorry to those who were interested.

I'm really hurt by that Guru reference. I hate Forex Gurus with all my heart, and here I'm being mistaken for being a Guru I really didn't mean to.

I will not be teaching anyone anything. I will not sell anything to anyone. I was merely putting a different idea out there. I really hope this discussion or argument will just end here now
  • #496
  • Jan 27, 2022 4:55am Jan 27, 2022 4:55am
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  • #497
  • Jan 27, 2022 5:05am Jan 27, 2022 5:05am
Quoting kette
{image}
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Stay green!!!
  • #498
  • Jan 27, 2022 5:14am Jan 27, 2022 5:14am
Quoting Froggy
{quote} {image}
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  • #499
  • Jan 27, 2022 5:18am Jan 27, 2022 5:18am
This was actually an interesting thread for me! Open minded exploring possibilities.

@captalTrader all the best and don't give up because of the negative comments.
  • #500
  • Jan 27, 2022 5:45am Jan 27, 2022 5:45am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Are you arguing or you genuinely want to know? The standard disclaimer 'Past performance does not guarantee future results' is familiar to anyone with a passing interest in investing. It was going to be so stupid of me, coming telling people what they've been doing so long is WRONG without showing the correct or almost correct way.
you just talking like guru who neglects his own logic. when you state "past means nothing" then why build EA which calculates past data to get probabilities? why publish results if past is done and gone and means nothing? see that was illogical and that I pointed out

regarding your EA results - indeed looks good 0.56 lots for 200usd account might be too much but ok SL is 5 pips, so the risk for 1 deal is 13% of the account here. Then I see when smaller lots size then SL in pips more - for example 12 pips. Good approach. This might work out maybe.

This 0.56 lots is a martingale approach - opened immediately on previous deal loss as we see here:

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I dont mind using martingale because using it myself with SL - and I see you use SL as well. and only 1 level. good

Your know-how is how to make a series of lot sizes - for now seems "random" for me but should be some math behind that - you mentioned this so it is ok. Need more time to understand how you set lots size for deals. Entries maybe done with some indicator.. does not matter i think.

keep doing - all good so far
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