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EURUSD only

Closed above 1280, barely, Interesting, some bulls action. Sold again here 1280 !
If I don't mention SL and TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
Hi at afternoon,

I now opened long ( last was closed on SL) at 1.1279, b3acuse i see we starting "milling" on this area and also I see GBP started to rise, so suppose EUR will follow and also 10y USBonds again fall ( are buying).
My SlL is 1.1251, and TP open ( first target: 1.1330 )

Have a nice evening!
Everyone makes mistakes, but only few use equity management.
Sold here 12856 for 10 pips, 11 pips SL. Correction, not for 10 pips. TP open. Depends on 10min prior to daily close. Significant close coming up !
If I don't mention SL and TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
Waiting on the sidelines until tomorrow, with 2 plans.
1st one to follow my bias, and catch a short entry after fomc spike up. Plan 2
IF THERE IS NO SPIKE UP. WAIT 30 MINS TO SEE IF THE MOVE DOWN WILL RECEDE AND FORM A BOTTOM TO BUY.

Expecting scenario 1 specially after todays aproach move. We will probably get stophunts at 1.1332 maybe even 1.1352 and down eitherway i plan to wait this one out its january, may aswell dictate direction for next 6 months tomorrow
Can you share why you think there could be a spike up? Thanks!

Quoting Windstrown
Waiting on the sidelines until tomorrow, with 2 plans. 1st one to follow my bias, and catch a short entry after fomc spike up. Plan 2 IF THERE IS NO SPIKE UP. WAIT 30 MINS TO SEE IF THE MOVE DOWN WILL RECEDE AND FORM A BOTTOM TO BUY. Expecting scenario 1 specially after todays aproach move. We will probably get stophunts at 1.1332 maybe even 1.1352 and down eitherway i plan to wait this one out its january, may aswell dictate direction for next 6 months tomorrow
Typically there is either movement for both sides, wirh both sides trying to figure out directions and stops getting triggered. But if there were to be a direction south, since we are close to the monthly base created in november and december, for the move to go south with impact it would need to take some of the safe stops placed by the market. And with the last 2 days most shorts moved their shorts a bit above 1.1332 demand area some safer might have them at 1.1362. Spike up take those out, gain liquidity and boom shoot down. But thats just a scenario to be honest ill just to see, if it does this ill enter short. If it doesnt ill wait 30 mins for confirmation
Parabolic Reversal
EUR USD
Is it possible for the image on the left to be repeated for the image on the right?
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Quoting Erkat
EUR USD Is it possible for the image on the left to be repeated for the image on the right? {image}

I think so. All the rhetoric is that US might raise rates at the meeting tomorrow. The US indices were trying to show the Feds what will happen if they do raise rates with the massive sell-off. But there is a near-zero chance of that. Once they release the rates, the DXY should dump, I'm looking for the 95.106 area on that. So I don't think it will go as high as the last move, but anything is possible. I'll be fading out of my long position once we get close. 1.14 would be fabulous 1.145 would be a GIFT from the forex gods. Just be ready to go the other way. DXY won't stay down for long most likely. Rate hikes coming in March. Traders will be loading up on USD in expectation for bigger hikes than 25 basis points for March. I'll be watching for some massive volume candles on the 1hr chart to confirm the reversal.
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} I think so. All the rhetoric is that US might raise rates at the meeting tomorrow. The US indices were trying to show the Feds what will happen if they do raise rates with the massive sell-off. But there is a near-zero chance of that. Once they release the rates, the DXY should dump, I'm looking for the 95.106 area on that. So I don't think it will go as high as the last move, but anything is possible. I'll be fading out of my long position once we get close. 1.14 would be fabulous 1.145 would be a GIFT from the forex gods. Just...
To the average joe inflation is the #1 issue in the economy NOT Wall Street.
Quoting mtako
{quote} You are fine and I think the Gods prefer to ignore me like always, and just range it now... P.S bewwwware the return to 1267, where I scalp for 12. Sell stop 12782
Out at 1.1300 - thank you mtako for removing your forex curse!
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} I think so. All the rhetoric is that US might raise rates at the meeting tomorrow. The US indices were trying to show the Feds what will happen if they do raise rates with the massive sell-off. But there is a near-zero chance of that. Once they release the rates, the DXY should dump, I'm looking for the 95.106 area on that. So I don't think it will go as high as the last move, but anything is possible. I'll be fading out of my long position once we get close. 1.14 would be fabulous 1.145 would be a GIFT from the forex gods. Just...
Hey Marv,

With all respect I highly doubt that the US dollar is going to fall after the FOMC and this is MY reasoning: Powell (FED Chairman) used the term "transitory inflation" way too much and too long. He suddenly pivoted and removed the transitory when discussing inflation. In addition EVERYONE is talking about inflation as well. Powell has previously indicated that bond purchases would end in February and that March would mark the first of 4 rate increases. Since then people have mentioned 5-6 rate increases and I've even heard mention of a 0.5% increase to start!!!!

The last 2 days of the USA stock market mean NOTHING to the FED. That is NOT their mandate and Powell is more concerned about people believing the FED then how the stock market reacts, therefore Powell will maintain his HAWKISH view and announce that rates will increase in March. (My opinion)

What would ROCK the markets is this - a 0.25% SURPRISE rate hike! This would have been a possibility in the past with Greenspan or Bernake but Powell won't rock the boat - the man is very transparent and wants to be taken seriously so fun to discuss but ZERO chance of happening.

The HAWKISH statement will shock the markets but what the stock market is really waiting to find out is this - when will the FED trim their balance sheets? THAT IS WHAT THE MARKETS FEAR!!! Let's face it from 0.25 to 1.0% interest means NOTHING! The world functioned in the 1970's with 10-15% interest rates in the USA and with inflation currently running at an annual rate of 7% raising rates will shock WALL STREET but MAIN STREET USA won't blink.

So I expect DXY to continue to rise and EU falling - but I've been know to be wrong in the past.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Cheers!
Sell limit @ 1.13154
Sl 60 pips

Target @ 1.12495
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
For FOMC, the plan is simple,

sell @ 1.13328

Sl 60 pips

Target is 1.12010 - 1.11883.

Once price touches 1.11883, I won't be using the sell button for a while except on some special cases or for scalps.
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
So nice everyone! Amazing shares yesterday, apart from my own !

Quoting fxsport
{quote} Out at 1.1300 - thank you mtako for removing your forex curse!
Its my deepest pleasure mate ! Worked hard at convincing them, reverse psychology worked even on Gods (see my trades) Buy kidding aside, very well done with your trade by the way and it was nice to have this interaction, truly!

For me, price now at probable ranging high levels of the day, OR going for .14 or .11. So, yes it is time again, aggressive trading time ! I am getting back in after a good good nap and am glad we are at crossroads. Should be interesting. I will not share my ranging plan(too complex), only my plan in case of a determined direction :

Shorting : Sell stop 13061 SL1325(protective stop for all my shorts now is at 1367), and will sell every open-2ticks of every single 15min candle. Each SL after 13061 position is the high of last 1 hour previous to each entry, Each stop loss at BE after 13 pips gain. No wicks time probable!

Longing : same thing but in reverse of course, and after buy stop 1325 triggered
.
If price gets back to 13061, I will have to close all old unshared longs, as well as my
Quoting mtako
.. Closed short and bought 13467 {quote}
My remaining shared shorts, even older ones still exists but probably not for long, like :
Quoting mtako
...we could be in for the much awaited bulls 1400s surprise ! .14s would be natural weekly reaches, given the weekly trend and factoring in momentum (I have anold .1418 sell limit still in effect)..
and
Quoting mtako
Selling time here 1306..
and
Quoting mtako
... Selling here 1321, 8H setup
Among many other unshared.

I used to be better at choosing which set of setups to share. I'll think of a better way in the coming days. Now I still just randomly share and I remember certain periods where my shares were more pleasing because I actually set out to share only certain setups.

Cant wait to share my months sharing update especially with my million losses ! If I survive it that is ! Kidding, I'm doing much better than is seems...

Take good care everyone and trade safe as always, not crazy like MTako!!

Me, all automated now and alarms are configured, so back to reading after a bit of exercise.
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If I don't mention SL and TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Hey Marv, With all respect I highly doubt that the US dollar is going to fall after the FOMC and this is MY reasoning: Powell (FED Chairman) used the term "transitory inflation" way too much and too long. He suddenly pivoted and removed the transitory when discussing inflation. In addition EVERYONE is talking about inflation as well. Powell has previously indicated that bond purchases would end in February and that March would mark the first of 4 rate increases. Since then people have mentioned 5-6 rate increases and I've even heard mention...
I think we are essentially saying the same thing here.

Let me clarify:
-I believe the FOMC will release their rates @ <.25 again @2pm NY time. So, nothing changes with rates, this will cause DXY to drop to and I think the FLOOR on dxy will be 95.106. OR ~1.14 on EURUSD. TBH, I think the max is going to be in the 1.137 area. And I said 1.145 would be a gift from the Forex gods (or market makers shaking out positions). I'm just looking for some good volume to confirm my sell order. HOWEVER, if rates increase, it will go the other way QUICKLY. That would be a surprise, and yes very possible.
-Fed Powell doesn't speak until 30 minutes after this release. Plenty of time for USD to sell off waiting for his announcement if rates stay unchanged. This is the time I will be looking for my SHORT position. So I agree that EURUSD is heading south.
-Powell helped get the US market to this WAY overbought status. Near-zero interest rates have fueled this beast, and raising rates would absolutely turn the markets south. I'm sure you know the market is funded with TONS of borrowed money. When rates increase, it's not so cheap to keep those long positions on borrowed money.


I've been wrong before, MANY times. I just try to be right more times than I am wrong, that's how we all pay our bills right?

Cheers!
If today, daily and most importantly weekly closes above 1.1350,then it's bulls turn. It tested 1.1280, it's highly likely it will provide a medium term support for euro.

But keep in mind it's still under 1.1350 and DXY exactly on the top of R 96.25. A break above we can literally say bye to euro and say hello to 1.10.
Quoting MarvOli
{quote} I think we are essentially saying the same thing here. Let me clarify: -I believe the FOMC will release their rates @ <.25 again @2pm NY time. So, nothing changes with rates, this will cause DXY to drop to and I think the FLOOR on dxy will be 95.106. OR ~1.14 on EURUSD. TBH, I think the max is going to be in the 1.137 area. And I said 1.145 would be a gift from the Forex gods (or market makers shaking out positions). I'm just looking for some good volume to confirm my sell order. HOWEVER, if rates increase, it will go the other way QUICKLY....
I believe the rate hike was signalled for March and not today. So you might be correct. But for me if this breaks out, I will not even get in a short till after today. I don't trust Powell. I don't trust the market makers. I don't trust the banks. I don't even trust the charts. Hahahaha... just joking there.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Went short @ 1.1299 by PA triggering my sell stop. TP 1.1250 or lower (actually open now). Trade safe, guys!
Today the only H1 question is: Can bulls keep candles above 1.1284... Tough day... Happy FOMC trading to all
Be a seer, not a looker!
Ata's Trend Hunter V1.0 All Time Return: 22.6%
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