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vsa with Malcolm

  • #35,401
  • Jan 20, 2022 1:42am Jan 20, 2022 1:42am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Be careful for sure, buyers are stepping in.
There was too much strength on AUD.

Today's UT wasn't able to overcome two days worth of accumulation, on AUDUSD price just bounced off the high of a widespread down bar from Jan 18th.
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  • #35,402
  • Jan 20, 2022 10:28am Jan 20, 2022 10:28am
EURUSD

Price had retraced into yesterdays H1 HVZ/gotcha bar.

London opened with an M30 upthrust showing weakness.

After breaking down through the open range we had a test bar on M5 which failed, with entry at the low of the test.
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  • #35,403
  • Jan 20, 2022 10:06pm Jan 20, 2022 10:06pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
EURUSD Price had retraced into yesterdays H1 HVZ/gotcha bar. London opened with an M30 upthrust showing weakness. After breaking down through the open range we had a test bar on M5 which failed, with entry at the low of the test. {image} {image}
Nice trade, you did a great job managing it.
  • #35,404
  • Edited 8:30am Jan 21, 2022 7:54am | Edited 8:30am
My two cents. Correct me if I'm wrong Anotan

In Asia start there was a high volume compared to the previous volume, bar ( expansion Bar) was bearish closed on low, next bar seemed as tow bar reversal. following that a failed test test at HVC. The trend is Bearish.

I'm not
sure if this can be applied to 15 Min chart, as you always show your analysis on 1H chart.
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USDJPY --
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Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #35,405
  • Jan 21, 2022 9:03am Jan 21, 2022 9:03am
Quoting PranithR
My two cents. Correct me if I'm wrong Anotan In Asia start there was a high volume compared to the previous volume, bar ( expansion Bar) was bearish closed on low, next bar seemed as tow bar reversal. following that a failed test test at HVC. The trend is Bearish. I'm not sure if this can be applied to 15 Min chart, as you always show your analysis on 1H chart. {image} USDJPY -- {image}{image}
When it comes to the Asian session, I ignore the bar at 01:00. The 00:00 bar is a dead zone, so obviously there will be a big jump in volume at 01:00, which IMO doesn't tell us much. Also I only draw trigger numbers on H1 chart, I have before.. but very rarely draw them on M15.

USDJPY

On Jan 20th the expansion volume, gave us a clue that yesterday's volume was bearish. Price didn't even attempt to touch the high of the expansion bar. You can see though that if you had drawn a line at the close of the expansion bar, price was marking straight through it, so the close isn't much use. However today in Asia at 01:00 price respected the close on yesterday's highest volume, giving us an idea its significant.

Looking at Bar A, we see that its rejecting the close from the highest volume bar during UJ's home session giving us an idea that the pair was bullish. Drop down to a smaller timeframe and look for price reacting to strength and failing to react to weakness and then you can find longs.

Price approached yesterday's HVC, we have an idea yesterday's volume is bearish due to failing to touch the high of the expansion volume, coupled with a failed test would've been an easy short.

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  • #35,406
  • Jan 21, 2022 10:01am Jan 21, 2022 10:01am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} When it comes to the Asian session, I ignore the bar at 01:00. The 00:00 bar is a dead zone, so obviously there will be a big jump in volume at 01:00, which IMO doesn't tell us much. Also I only draw trigger numbers on H1 chart, I have before.. but very rarely draw them on M15. USDJPY On Jan 20th the expansion volume, gave us a clue that yesterday's volume was bearish. Price didn't even attempt to touch the high of the expansion bar. You can see though that if you had drawn a line at the close of the expansion bar, price was marking straight...


Why this cant be an Expansion volume bar.
Pardon my ignorance. Just curious to know
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Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #35,407
  • Jan 21, 2022 10:30am Jan 21, 2022 10:30am
Quoting PranithR
{quote} Why this cant be an Expansion volume bar. Pardon my ignorance. Just curious to know {image}
Expansion volume is a huge increase in volume, but the next bar has higher total volume than the expansion volume.

That bar you marked I would just call it high volume because the next bar's volume is lower. Expansion volume is just a term I came up with to distinguish bars with a huge increases in volume, but aren't necessarily the highest volume bar of the day or session.

Something that you have to understand is that, big traders.. The traders with 100s of millions of dollars don't trade with charts. They trade with order books and they watch specific price levels and the orders that come in at those price levels. So because of that highs / lows / 50% / closes all kinda line up.

Back to the UJ chart, marking off the close, because that high volume bar did occur during UJ's home session, its even clearer that bears were in control.
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  • #35,408
  • Jan 24, 2022 4:57am Jan 24, 2022 4:57am
GBPUSD

London open finished as a trap-up move which closed below Fridays HVZ. Trend Alignment from H1 down.

After the London OR I moved down to M5 where I noticed we broke below the Asian lows and looked for an entry. I noticed an EVR/Squat bar so I placed a sell stop at the recent low, and was triggered in on the next gotcha bar.
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  • #35,409
  • Jan 24, 2022 7:45am Jan 24, 2022 7:45am
Quoting Paulscaff1
GBPUSD London open finished as a trap-up move which closed below Fridays HVZ. Trend Alignment from H1 down. After the London OR I moved down to M5 where I noticed we broke below the Asian lows and looked for an entry. I noticed an EVR/Squat bar so I placed a sell stop at the recent low, and was triggered in on the next gotcha bar. {image} {image}
Very nice.

Just adding the M15.........

One of the highest probability signals: an Up Thrust in a down trend.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #35,410
  • Jan 24, 2022 9:04am Jan 24, 2022 9:04am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Very nice. Just adding the M15......... One of the highest probability signals: an Up Thrust in a down trend. {image}
Nice one mate, that looked like a better entry to be fair
  • #35,411
  • Jan 24, 2022 9:47am Jan 24, 2022 9:47am
Quoting Paulscaff1
GBPUSD London open finished as a trap-up move which closed below Fridays HVZ. Trend Alignment from H1 down.
You've read Philip Friston's book right? I'm about halfway through & his definitions overlap Tom's and the rest of his disciples, but it feels like he has additional layers in his explanations of the background that make it easier to track somehow.
  • #35,412
  • Jan 24, 2022 10:40am Jan 24, 2022 10:40am
Quoting Macallik
{quote} You've read Philip Friston's book right? I'm about halfway through & his definitions overlap Tom's and the rest of his disciples, but it feels like he has additional layers in his explanations of the background that make it easier to track somehow.
Aye mate its good eh!

I feel its shows a bit more of how to apply vsa, and how you can come up with a strategy around it.

Ive been through it twice now.
  • #35,413
  • Jan 24, 2022 7:30pm Jan 24, 2022 7:30pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Aye mate its good eh! I feel its shows a bit more of how to apply vsa, and how you can come up with a strategy around it. Ive been through it twice now.
Hi paul. could you share pdf here.
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #35,414
  • Jan 24, 2022 7:37pm Jan 24, 2022 7:37pm
Quoting PranithR
{quote} Hi paul. could you share pdf here.
Its too big to upload here mate, you can find it in the vsa telegram channel.
  • #35,415
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:50am Jan 25, 2022 3:50am
Quoting Anotan
I've been watching AJ, but this chart is AU just because its a little more straight forward. A lot of volume on May 4th, and the highest volume is on the low of the day which made me really bullish. Then today we had the announcement about China suspending trades with AUD and created Bar A. Normally that is a bearish bar because of the rally on May5th. Technically you want to see strength on a down bar in fresh new low ground. Bar A is anything but, fresh new low ground. We starting to see some more weakness at Point B, but personally I couldn't...
Hi, I've been mucking around with VSA for a while now. From time to time I see the phrase, "fresh new low ground". Does anyone have a definition for this ? Does it mean ever, one year, three years, 500 bars, 1000 bars or maybe until I get bored of going back in the chart ?
TIA
  • #35,416
  • Edited 8:10am Jan 25, 2022 5:06am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting ChesFX
{quote} Hi, I've been mucking around with VSA for a while now. From time to time I see the phrase, "fresh new low ground". Does anyone have a definition for this ? Does it mean ever, one year, three years, 500 bars, 1000 bars or maybe until I get bored of going back in the chart ? TIA
10 years minimum, otherwise......no trade.

Joking. I just look for a significant high/low be ran personally.

Maybe the high low of the range your in close to your timeframe.

Or even a wide space on your chart, where price hasnt been in a while. Like GBPUSD H1
  • #35,417
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:07am Jan 25, 2022 9:07am
Quoting ChesFX
{quote} "fresh new low ground". Does anyone have a definition for this ?
Don't overthink it, just look to your immediate left on the chart that you're watching. Fresh new low ground tends to have better setups, if nothing is to the left and you see a surge in volume or volume steadily dries up there is a very good chance that price will turn bullish. But keep in mind you still need to see price prove itself, making new highs/ failing to respond to further weakness etc..

VSA really doesn't like to nail down definitions, which can be a pain to learn. But also it helps with being able to adapt to changing market conditions.
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  • #35,418
  • Jan 25, 2022 7:38pm Jan 25, 2022 7:38pm
Quoting ChesFX
{quote} Hi, I've been mucking around with VSA for a while now. From time to time I see the phrase, "fresh new low ground". Does anyone have a definition for this ? Does it mean ever, one year, three years, 500 bars, 1000 bars or maybe until I get bored of going back in the chart ? TIA
What Anotan said holds, but if you really need a number, then from the book "Trading in the shadow of the Smart Money", it says:

"A genuine 'Buying Climax' as described by Wyckoff, should be into fresh new ground, meaning that there is no price action in the same area for at least 500 bars or more in any timeframe."
  • #35,419
  • Edited Jan 27, 2022 8:36am Jan 26, 2022 11:03pm | Edited Jan 27, 2022 8:36am
Hey all. Curious if someone can weigh in for bar #4 and anything else that looks out of place.

The story I see is a background of weakness with distribution from November -> January, as well as support-turned-likely-resistance @ $450.

A. No Demand signaling the end of distribution and the beginning of markdown

  1. Demand coming in - Increase in volume + decrease in spread compared to prior bars
  2. Shakeout bar closing on the highs = bullish
  3. Test bar
  4. I see two ways to interpret the price action:

    1. Failed Test/Trap Up Move after a test as a SoW. Bulls should've taken advantage of PA but did not
    2. Down bar on increased volume with nothing to show for it as a SoW SoS



Generally, when it comes to background, I have an issue knowing when to pay attention to a shorter-term SoS (#2) versus the long-term SoW (Distribution from Nov->Jan). Does anyone have any tips there as well?

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  • #35,420
  • Jan 27, 2022 12:28am Jan 27, 2022 12:28am
#2 is climactic action and stopping volume, market is changing

3 and 4 are normal reactions to these .. not ready to move up yet

Setting up for a SOS6 .. see elsewhere in this thread for a picture of what this looks like

Too early for long entry ... wait till it tests after Bar 4 and holds the price level on much smaller volume and narrower range

Then you move in with a stop under the lows of #2

HTH
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