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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

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  • Post #441
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  • Jan 25, 2022 3:24am Jan 25, 2022 3:24am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Quoting moodybot
Disliked
{quote} All good, no probs. I saw that you were getting some stick which I disagreed with. Your charts were spot on.
Ignored
I normally share charts before things happen to give people a little of hope in trading.
 
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  • Post #442
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:55am Jan 25, 2022 3:26am | Edited at 3:55am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Next OB is a high prob one. However, prices are still going up, no reason to consider a reversal so far.

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[Edit #1]
There was here a pic with my short with the SL at breakeven. The lot size was visible by mistake and I do not like sharing my lot sizes. It was 0.98 lots anyways.
Should I take partials or not?

[Edit #3]
Should I reenter or not?
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[edit #4]
Is this a breakout or a fake-out?
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  • Post #443
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  • Edited at 4:32am Jan 25, 2022 3:29am | Edited at 4:32am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
EURGBP seems really bearish too.

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[edit #1]
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The fact is if one is able to make a profit from this or not.

[edit #2]
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[edit #3]
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[edit #4]
Lines are good. They live in flatland.
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[Edit #5]
Being there at the right time is important. Lines are just drawings.
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  • Post #444
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  • Jan 25, 2022 3:58am Jan 25, 2022 3:58am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
With the series of pictures above I have shared, I just want to show that trading is not about learning a few concepts.

A lot of practice and money are required for trading and one needs to have that business mindset. Lazy traders or freeloaders, they do not have a place in this industry.

That is why people fail. The effort and money investment required are very high.

Sharing these charts here during trading hours has costed me good money. Forget about an easy way to trading. Prepare your pockets and be ready to sweat and for the pain you will have to face over the next years.
 
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  • Post #445
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  • Jan 25, 2022 4:02am Jan 25, 2022 4:02am
  •  tetis
  • Joined Sep 2007 | Status: LION HEART | 869 Posts
thread is gong from trading discussion to trading journal!
 
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  • Post #446
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  • Edited at 5:02am Jan 25, 2022 4:15am | Edited at 5:02am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Do you think this m5 bullish ob will hold under the line?

I do not know to be honest.

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Decision making: Buy or wait. Or maybe sell.
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Should I take partials or not?
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Should I move my SL to BE or lower or higher or just leave it as it was at the beginning?
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Here comes the sun (maybe)
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  • Post #447
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  • Jan 25, 2022 4:41am Jan 25, 2022 4:41am
  •  moodybot
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 2,641 Posts
Quoting tetis
Disliked
thread is gong from trading discussion to trading journal!
Ignored
Thread is going from market is random to market can be traded.
 
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  • Post #448
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  • Jan 25, 2022 4:58am Jan 25, 2022 4:58am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Quoting moodybot
Disliked
{quote} Thread is going from market is random to market can be traded.
Ignored
In fact, roulette and blackjack are random and casinos live from them consistently making profits.

Could anyone draw a roulette pattern other than a circle? Nope. It is just about probability.
 
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  • Post #449
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  • Jan 25, 2022 5:10am Jan 25, 2022 5:10am
  •  sowona
  • | Joined Jun 2021 | Status: Member | 15 Posts
Quoting scherzi
Disliked
{quote} In fact, roulette and blackjack are random and casinos live from them consistently making profits. Could anyone draw a roulette pattern other than a circle? Nope. It is just about probability.
Ignored
Not sure this is a good analogy to trading. We all know that casinos have an advantage when it comes to these games and these advantages come into many shape and forms.

Maybe the analogy with trading are:

  1. HFT: Advantage of Speed of analysis and execution
  2. Big Players: Advantages in the ability of planning and structuring, herd advantage when big money work together
  3. Retail Trader: Advantage is discovering the gaps / reading the planning/structuring of the big players

It's all a matter of perspective at the end

Thanks! Good luck with all your trading. Serge.
 
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  • Post #450
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:46am Jan 25, 2022 7:29am | Edited at 7:46am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Guess what I am thinking.

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Do not forget to check if there are news to be released today.
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  • Post #451
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  • Edited Jan 26, 2022 5:51am Jan 25, 2022 7:47am | Edited Jan 26, 2022 5:51am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Imbalance ahead, the odds are these.

Remember, price does not move on a straight line.

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Each timeframe offers a different perspective. None is wrong nor right. You will never be right when choosing your timeframe.

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Reality vs prediction.
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  • Post #452
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  • Jan 25, 2022 7:54am Jan 25, 2022 7:54am
  •  scherzi
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
What if...

I have a dream (not a crystal ball).
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  • Post #453
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  • Jan 25, 2022 9:19am Jan 25, 2022 9:19am
  •  captalTrader
  • Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Quoting scherzi
Disliked
What if... I have a dream (not a crystal ball). {image}
Ignored
What is your end game with your charts? Are you trying to prove that you can predict the future?

If so, just post stats of how accurate you've been for the last 90 days. Easily post a link to your monitoring account would have saved you a lot of screenshoting and uploading photos.

Helps to keep this thread about discussions. We don't want to turn it to a journal now or even worse... A trading strategy thread, argh!

Work smart not hard

Stop with the chart posting
 
4
  • Post #454
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:23am Jan 25, 2022 9:23am
  •  FourBarsBack
  • | Joined Nov 2021 | Status: Member | 89 Posts
Agree, too many charts. Too many levels. Too much information.
Focus on what DIDN'T happen
 
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  • Post #455
  • Quote
  • Edited at 9:38am Jan 25, 2022 9:24am | Edited at 9:38am
  •  captalTrader
  • Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
I'm not going to try and argue with believers anymore.

You just can't win!!!!

If you argue with what I'm saying about the Forex market, and If you say your levels or whatever you use to BE PROFITABLE works. Just post a link to your 90 days worth of data. That's all and you win!!!

Stop posting your 'strategies' here please or long beliefs about the market, try to stick to facts I beg
 
1
  • Post #456
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:33am Jan 25, 2022 9:33am
  •  ElmPie
  • | Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Member | 25 Posts
Why do ICT people always speak in riddles. Is there a mathematical system in this or a clear method or gut feeling?

@capitalTrader : looking forward for your article on mql5!
 
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  • Post #457
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:00am Jan 25, 2022 10:00am
  •  tommydoginti
  • Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Member | 2,265 Posts
I do believe the market being chaotic means the footprint can be traced and traded with statistical edge.

I just think the knowledge is so valuable no one would teach it in detail. However the truth is when generalizing the detail strategy to something comfortable to be shared, the content becomes so generic, therefore seemingly the "education" is misleading to be trivial and easy, but not really wrong or lie. (I do not rule out possibility of presence of scammers, theirs are all lies)

Dunno if you have learnt any specialty skills. But say driving, a new learner may find driving coaches BS with rigid and unrealistic instructions ("look at rear mirror twice, direction light, speed up and cut line"). Eventually you find a comfortable way to do it in your opinion, and may find the instructor was actually telling all truth. my 2 cents.

Since beginning of 2021
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  • Post #458
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:10am Jan 25, 2022 10:10am
  •  captalTrader
  • Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Quoting tommydoginti
Disliked
I do believe the market being chaotic means the footprint can be traced and traded with statistical edge. I just think the knowledge is so valuable no one would teach it in detail. However the truth is when generalizing the detail strategy to something comfortable to be shared, the content becomes so generic, therefore seemingly the "education" is misleading to be trivial and easy, but not really wrong or lie. (I do not rule out possibility of presence of scammers, theirs are all lies) Dunno if you have learnt any specialty skills. But say driving,...
Ignored
This screenshot says 85% win rate!!!!

Wait your average loss is bigger than your average win

Show me the equity Vs balance
 
 
  • Post #459
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:17am Jan 25, 2022 10:17am
  •  tommydoginti
  • Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Member | 2,265 Posts
Quoting captalTrader
Disliked
{quote} This screenshot says 85% win rate!!!! Wait your average loss is bigger than your average win Show me the equity Vs balance
Ignored
coz my trades have got a lot of BE
 
 
  • Post #460
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:38am Jan 25, 2022 10:38am
  •  tommydoginti
  • Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Member | 2,265 Posts
Quoting captalTrader
Disliked
{quote} This screenshot says 85% win rate!!!! Wait your average loss is bigger than your average win Show me the equity Vs balance
Ignored
This is not very surprising when look at statistics.

Been recording my entries and mapped out potentials of the trades, i.e. projecting R:R ratio and find out if the trade would have won/lost. Limitation being only set-and-forget SLTP is modelled (I don't believe hindsight adjust of SL)
The inverse correlation of average R:R and win rate is pretty solid.

Now add in trade management that will set exits (either TP/SL) at BE+ (e.g. 1 pip). That trade would be a "win" defined by myfxbook, but profit is minimal. Result is the actual rate vs RR curve is shifted left.

Just statistics is my favorite approach to trading as a number game

*In this graph, 100% means all of the profitable trades.
Attached Image
 
 
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