Disliked{quote} In other word you mean Corn is correlated to the mexican peso ?Ignored
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
~vix (#spx #ndx) market correction not over yet ?
You don't want to sell the vix, or buy stock market when short side of assets managers are still very loaded #just saying
Meanwhile....check the hedge funds (money managers). Looks like their strategy is to buy #vix now. Everytime it happened we have a rise, with a fall of stocks
You don't want to sell the vix, or buy stock market when short side of assets managers are still very loaded #just saying
Meanwhile....check the hedge funds (money managers). Looks like their strategy is to buy #vix now. Everytime it happened we have a rise, with a fall of stocks
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
{quote} To me Smart money is clearly loading some good longs {image} Even Hedge funds are starting to buy the current bottom... {image}
Everytime jpy long dealers have had such strong positions...jpy rallied between 400-600pts
Imagine the help of dollar bears and you'll see usdjpy back to 99/104 #just saying
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
#dxy #usd more drop ?
If you want to buy usd, i'd suggest to wait for a drop in the positionning of the assets managers. Being loaded this way usually lead to more unload
If you want to buy usd, i'd suggest to wait for a drop in the positionning of the assets managers. Being loaded this way usually lead to more unload
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
{quote} #jpy is ready for more upside ? {image} Everytime jpy long dealers have had such strong positions...jpy rallied between 400-600pts Imagine the help of dollar bears and you'll see usdjpy back to 99/104 #just saying
You don't know to be in front of the train when dealers starts unloading
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
#dxy #usd more drop ? If you want to buy usd, i'd suggest to wait for a drop in the positionning of the assets managers. Being loaded this way usually lead to more unload {image}
Assets managers start to unload their big longs
I'd need more unloading from their part to buy #usd again
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
Just when you think Dumb money can't go deeper....they do! They are going almost -40% short, all in shorts {image}
Perfect scenario, dips are still bought until AM goes long (or close to it)
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
Big 10 years long always preceded a drop in equities {image}
10 years dealers are now short...But small. Possible bounce, its still better to short rallies so far as i'd wait for the dealers to be net short at least 2%+
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
~spx ndx equities
Quick chart to see the current situation
Dealers (blue chart) are now very shorts markets, but in the past they were too (dec 2018 failed, they were short at bottom)
Now if we look at the AM (green chart) we see the difference comes from them :
-In dec 2018 we were at a big dip
-AM were not loaded, they loaded as price rose
Now ? dealers very short, AM still very long, same as pre COVID drop.
Does it mean more and more downside ?
Quick chart to see the current situation
Dealers (blue chart) are now very shorts markets, but in the past they were too (dec 2018 failed, they were short at bottom)
Now if we look at the AM (green chart) we see the difference comes from them :
-In dec 2018 we were at a big dip
-AM were not loaded, they loaded as price rose
Now ? dealers very short, AM still very long, same as pre COVID drop.
Does it mean more and more downside ?
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
#cocoa #usd
One my favorite (for now) indicator of the dollar move
Cocoa traders know it all...
One my favorite (for now) indicator of the dollar move
Cocoa traders know it all...
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
#lumber #copper #spx #ndx #dxy
risk off coming ?
risk off coming ?
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
{quote} Could you share for Soybeans ?
Money managers are still very long, and its been a while they haven't been net short, it could come this year really, as MM long above 15/20% trigger selling
This chart looks a more relevant, comparing producers with MM longs. It had a failure, else its pretty relevant on the long run.
It seems upside pressure is decreasing
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
{quote} #gbp see how they are unloading their big shorts ? Perfect scenario, dips are still bought until AM goes long (or close to it) {image}
Quick look at the long side of the dealers.
Dips are still being bought, lets follow them
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
{quote} Drop happened in equities as expected 10 years dealers are now short...But small. Possible bounce, its still better to short rallies so far as i'd wait for the dealers to be net short at least 2%+ {image}
10 years dealers getting close to 3% short, where spx could reverse
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- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 17,483 Posts
{quote} Its going as "planned" Assets managers start to unload their big longs I'd need more unloading from their part to buy #usd again {image}
You can be a dollar bear or dollar bull....but seeing short dealers 80%+ short won't be making me a bull at all
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