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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #381
  • Jan 21, 2022 6:22am Jan 21, 2022 6:22am
@CapitalTrader,

Thank you for starting this thread.
I really liked you first post and was expecting some sort of revelation. I always keen on trying new approaches to the market.
After 19 pages of arguing on what the market it or should be, I'm still waiting for some new information.

I think I'm one of those retail trader who believe in everything they are being taught . risk=opportunity.
I'll try and test any idea as long as I can program it.

You said the following in your first post
Quote
It’s not all gloom and doom though because we have Probability mathematics! We can examine the chains of non-overlapping events that follow each other. Probability trees and hypotheses, we can calculate entries based on market processes using fractal-probability chains, e.g. С(n,k) = n! / ( k! * ( n - k )! )
Basically everything in the universe is fractal, so we can use math to calculate defined fractals given that the forex market is random. We currently do this with weather forecasting.

Have...

Please can you share what you are testing, idea ... ? I'm happy to support the best I could you in your research.
Thanks! Good luck with all your trading. Serge.
  • #382
  • Jan 21, 2022 7:00am Jan 21, 2022 7:00am
Quoting sowona
@CapitalTrader, Thank you for starting this thread. I really liked you first post and was expecting some sort of revelation. I always keen on trying new approaches to the market. After 19 pages of arguing on what the market it or should be, I'm still waiting for some new information. I think I'm one of those retail trader who believe in everything they are being taught . risk=opportunity. I'll try and test any idea as long as I can program it. You said the following in your first post {quote} Please can you share what you are testing,...
I have posted the free EA on MQL5, currently waiting for moderation. Everything will explained on the EAs discription

In simple terms what the EA do is calculate probabilities of next 100 ticks to be above this X sum over being below y sum. Then workout if it's worth it to take the chances, if it's worth it, changes are taken in direction of higher probability. With expected outcome of 1:1 nothing else.

Currently I have a problem with calculating accurate lot sizes. Seems like MQL5 limitation but I expecting it to be solved by a community I'm hoping I'll put together there by telegram once the program is published.

I'll announce here when it's publish so you guys can test it and we can improve it together. I'll also post the telegram channel. Still not sure if I have time for it as yet.

For now you can analyse it's performance, link is the first page.

I'm no longer interested in arguing how the markets work
  • #383
  • Jan 21, 2022 7:22am Jan 21, 2022 7:22am
The EA algorithm is working impressively after 90 days even though it have bug. It should be doing even better. Lot calculations are not accurate, it should be profitable with only 51% profitability. Currently It's at 56% which is great, but it doesn't show on the results because of a slightest bug on accuracy of calculations of about a tenth or so... That's math for you

I'm really desperate on fixing this, if someone might know what I'm talking about, please shout.

It's easy to see there's a bug if you analyse the performance numbers. Worse trade should be less than Best trade at all times, never higher. Simple things like this determine positive results from negative over a period.

https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/1350...e#!tab=account
  • #384
  • Jan 21, 2022 7:40am Jan 21, 2022 7:40am
Here's a math problem for those who like puzzles

This Algorithm have taken 69 trades/chances, in exactly 40 days. It risk 5% to gain 5% each trade. Total gained after 40 days is 82%.

We will ignore the lot calculation bug for now and assume it is really 5% for 5%.

How much it will would have gained in 80 days?


Go!

It's not 164% you lazy.... Do some math!
  • #385
  • Jan 21, 2022 7:47am Jan 21, 2022 7:47am
Quoting captalTrader
Here's a math problem for those who like puzzles This Algorithm have taken 69 trades/chances, in exactly 40 days. It risk 5% to gain 5% each trade. Total gained after 40 days is 82%. We will ignore the lot calculation bug for now and assume it is really 5% for 5%. How much it will would have gained in 80 days? Go! It's not 164% you lazy.... Do some math!
0.56 lot size of 350$ equity is 5% risk?
You are good
Observer effect
  • #386
  • Jan 21, 2022 7:54am Jan 21, 2022 7:54am
Hi and thank you!

Quote
In simple terms what the EA do is calculate probabilities of next 100 ticks to be above this X sum over being below y sum. Then workout if it's worth it to take the chances, if it's worth it, changes are taken in direction of higher probability. With expected outcome of 1:1 nothing else.

I did look at the published paper and the conclusion is interesting but not surprising. I really like playing with probabilities and I think it's one of the tool that can be leveraged to develop some sort of edge.

I understand that you won't exchange on the specifics of your EA on a public forum. But maybe you could share the main concepts you are leveraging to calculate your probabilities of the price being above level X or being below Level Y.
Thanks! Good luck with all your trading. Serge.
  • #387
  • Jan 21, 2022 7:54am Jan 21, 2022 7:54am
The math say if the lot size calculation was accurate from trade number 1, today growth would be 234%


How do I make these lot sizes accurate?????? Is it a limitation?

I have thought about this. If the numbers says the lot size should be 0.0546788 for example, mql5 will round up to 0.05 lot.

After 69 trades those little 0.0046788 would add up to be 0.3228372!!!!

Can someone please show me the wisdom. What I'm missing? Maybe there is a simple way to solve this problem

Where are EA programmers? Where do they camp around this Forum? Someone please point me to them
  • #388
  • Jan 21, 2022 7:56am Jan 21, 2022 7:56am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} 0.56 lot size of 350$ equity is 5% risk? You are good
Whether your answer somewhere there, or you're asking a question in a sarcastic manner

Either way I'm lost sir.
  • #389
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:01am Jan 21, 2022 8:01am
Quoting sowona
Hi and thank you! {quote} I did look at the published paper and the conclusion is interesting but not surprising. I really like playing with probabilities and I think it's one of the tool that can be leveraged to develop some sort of edge. I understand that you won't exchange on the specifics of your EA on a public forum. But maybe you could share the main concepts you are leveraging to calculate your probabilities of the price being above level X or being below Level Y.
It's not levels but sum of ticks.

It's a whole article.

I'll have to copy and paste then edit the context of describing a published EA for mql5 audience so that this forums reader will understand.

It's a job I'm not willing to do again right now

Every detail is there, just wait for it to be published.
  • #390
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:09am Jan 21, 2022 8:09am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} 0.56 lot size of 350$ equity is 5% risk? You are good
Ok maybe you're pointing out the fact that total lots of 0.56 are too big for a 350 equity size?

Well I understand where you're coming from. You're an expert on nonsense like, risk 0.01 lots 1000$ is safe risk?

You can even use 0.000001 lots on a $20k and still be a loser if your profit factor is less than 1.

Your lot size Vs Equity risk assessment doesn't make sense according to my calculations.

Please help me with calculating accurate lot sizes and stop this thing of wanting to argue with me always.

You could have simply asked if it's not an issue or advice me me why and how it's an issue... But no!!! You want to win imaginary arguements
  • #391
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:21am Jan 21, 2022 8:21am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Whether your answer somewhere there, or you're asking a question in a sarcastic manner Either way I'm lost sir.
I think he's being sarcastic .

on the MQL5 website, your equity is $350
5% risk of your equity is $17.5

Assuming your want to trade EURUSD with a leverage of 1:100, $350 will give you about $350,000 margin. And 5% risk of your equity is $17.5. With leverage you could afford risk about $1750. In lot size that's about $1750/€1M about 0.00175 Lot or 1.7 microlots. note: converting to the base currency...

1 Lot is 100,000 x 1000 Euros --> €1M

To trade 0.56Lots of EUR/USD you'll need 0.56x€1M --> €560,000 assuming a leverage of 1:100 you should have a balance of at least €5,600. To avoid margin call as soon as you'll open such order, you should have around €50,000.

Rather thinking lot, you could use micro-lot or nano-lot depending of what your broker allows you to.

Hope the precision help!!!
Thanks! Good luck with all your trading. Serge.
  • #392
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:32am Jan 21, 2022 8:32am
Quoting sowona
{quote} I think he's being sarcastic . on the MQL5 website, your equity is $350 5% risk of your equity is $17.5 Assuming your want to trade EURUSD with a leverage of 1:100, $350 will give you about $350,000 margin. And 5% risk of your equity is $17.5. With leverage you could afford risk about $1750. In lot size that's about $1750/€1M about 0.00175 Lot or 1.7 microlots. note: converting to the base currency... 1 Lot is 100,000 x 1000 Euros --> €1M To trade 0.56Lots of EUR/USD you'll need 0.56x€1M --> €560,000 assuming a leverage of 1:100 you should...
I understand all that, the problem is that I never opened a 0.56 lot.

I assumed maybe he calculated the total of all lots ever opened I don't have energy to confirm that nonsense.

The account you 1:500 leverage by the way.

Every trade risk is 5% or so if the lots we're accurate. That's all I care about
  • #393
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:33am Jan 21, 2022 8:33am
Quoting captalTrader
it risk 5% to gain 5% each trade.
Quoting captalTrader
Ok maybe you're pointing out the fact that total lots of 0.56 are too big for a 350 equity size?
I don't know is it too big or not. But it is definitely more than 5%
Observer effect
  • #394
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:45am Jan 21, 2022 8:45am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote} I don't know is it too big or not. But it is definitely more than 5%

Show me!
  • #395
  • Edited 9:02am Jan 21, 2022 8:52am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting sowona
{quote} I think he's being sarcastic . on the MQL5 website, your equity is $350 5% risk of your equity is $17.5 Assuming your want to trade EURUSD with a leverage of 1:100, $350 will give you about $350,000 margin. And 5% risk of your equity is $17.5. With leverage you could afford risk about $1750. In lot size that's about $1750/€1M about 0.00175 Lot or 1.7 microlots. note: converting to the base currency... 1 Lot is 100,000 x 1000 Euros --> €1M To trade 0.56Lots of EUR/USD you'll need 0.56x€1M --> €560,000 assuming a leverage of 1:100 you should...

I even missed the point of your reply I'm sorry.

Your 17.5 = 5% of 350 is correct however, that's now how I calculate risk.

There's two other variables missing on your equation. Stoploss and take profit values are also aknown.

Your calculations are perfect for people Who have constant values for TP & SL

On my side though, they vary.
  • #396
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:56am Jan 21, 2022 8:56am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote} I don't know is it too big or not. But it is definitely more than 5%
Here let me help you.

How are those trades outcomes greater than 5%?

I'm really looking forward to this!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2022_0121_165405.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #397
  • Jan 21, 2022 8:59am Jan 21, 2022 8:59am
I'm helping you to the best of my knowledge making assumptions based on the information you are sharing.

I just attached your history from the MQL5 site. They are on excel and you should be able to analyse it all the way you want...

If you are truly looking for help share what you are trying to achieve and I'm sure many here will be happy to help. You could also PM me you want...

On this happy trading!
Attached File(s)
File Type: csv 1350281.positions.csv   5 KB | 187 downloads
Thanks! Good luck with all your trading. Serge.
  • #398
  • Jan 21, 2022 9:11am Jan 21, 2022 9:11am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2022_0121_165405.jpg Size: 90 KB

Quoting sowona
I'm helping you to the best of my knowledge making assumptions based on the information you are sharing. If you are truly looking for help share what you are trying to achieve and I'm sure many here will be happy to help. You could also PM me you want... On this happy trading!
I saw that and I appreciate it

Please check the screenshot, you see, the trade results should be exactly -5% or +5% but they vary... And that's is because of the lot size calculations. I figured it out after almost flying to Russia and break doors in MetaQuotes offices, that it's the rounding and it make sense.

Imagine the algorithm calculations says the lot size should be 0.0065734 for this trade outcome to result in a -5% or +5%... You see where is the problem? Exactly we don't have 0.0065734 lots, thefore it's rounded to 0.01.

0.01 will not results in a -5% +5%, it might be more or less but not accurately.

And this is enough to make profitable statistics to unprofitable.

Now I'm asking for possible solutions to this problem.
  • #399
  • Jan 21, 2022 9:23am Jan 21, 2022 9:23am
Quote
Imagine the algorithm calculations says the lot size should be 0.0065734 for this trade outcome to result in a -5% or +5%... You see where is the problem? Exactly we don't have 0.0065734 lots, thefore it's rounded to 0.01.


What type of lot are you trading? lots, micro-lots,nano-lots?

You need to make sure you algo round your order quantity according to the type of lot size you are trading. You also need to make sure you are within the and the min/max lot amount of the given the traded currency pair.

What type of solution are you expecting ? code example?
Thanks! Good luck with all your trading. Serge.
  • #400
  • Jan 21, 2022 9:35am Jan 21, 2022 9:35am
Quoting sowona
{quote} What type of lot are you trading? lots, micro-lots,nano-lots? You need to make sure you algo round your order quantity according to the type of lot size you are trading. You also need to make sure you are within the and the min/max lot amount of the given the traded currency pair. What type of solution are you expecting ? code example?
What lot as in 0.01 is micro 1.0 is standard lot?

I trade anything from micro and up. The next trade can be 1.0 lot, I have no idea. Lot sizes vary as does TP & SL levels, what netter is the outcome size relative to equity.

At this point I don't even know how this can be solved or what I'm looking for. But the problem is still there
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