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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #361
  • Jan 19, 2022 4:06am Jan 19, 2022 4:06am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Everything you said make sense. Your last point, why would Goldman Sachs risk 4.5B just to take out retailers? If retailers say we're to abstain for a day. No patterns of 'stop hunt' will be observable on the charts? So let's say there's a obvious Support level and most of retailers buy EURUSD and their stoploss is below this Support level. Their stoploss simply mean they are offering to buy USD at this particular price. If Goldman Sachs see these USD offers and they do have USDs to sell and are interested to sell them at that offered price...
I would say the necessary volume to move the market would be less than 4.5B, just enough to tilt the current balance of Buy/Sell. I don't think we need a 100% sentiment for price to move up or down.

I just put Goldman Sach as an example. There are many of them and many have bigger capital, for example
AUM of HSBC: 620Billion
AUM of Prudential: 1.71 Trillion
Fx reserve of US: 130Billion
Fx reserve of HK gov: 500 Billion (It is very high because for holding USD/HKD)
Fx reserve of China: 3.1 Trillion

As joke, they don't even need to use leverage or contracts to trade forex, they can use cash and still able to make volume of 5B pretty easily.

My second hypothesis is the big players' trading actions will leave a footprint, for example the value zones being the actual betting ground between them. The patterns can be interpreted as S/R etc because it is the currency values being decision points. So sometimes they work when retail traders find them

What I think is the big player have incentive to minimize loss while market go where they wish to be, just as retail traders (I don't use PROFIT, because like governments may not profit in the FX transaction but for greater potential revenue in economy as whole, e.g. HKD vs USD). In order to do that they need to chip in capital to create orders. Since liquidity is needed to fill the orders, to BUY, either accept a gradually higher price as order being filled, or a SELL to next value zone before it ("Stop hunt") and able to buy at lower cost. And it is likely to be more apparent a Stop Hunt when the value zones are no longer a betting place and only the retail traders placing their tiny orders.
  • #362
  • Jan 19, 2022 10:17am Jan 19, 2022 10:17am
Quoting gepards
For all my heiters... Your time is NOW!!! Got to myfxbook and monitor how first-time SL might be hit for my famous and everywhere posted in n threads EA screenshots which trade MSFT using averaging/martingale. So you see that I do use SL! {image}
It is done - SL hit
  • #363
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:02pm Jan 19, 2022 1:02pm
Hello,


Stock,index trading is better in my opinion , companies have for example : P/E value and the performance of companies and countries can be analyzed better than foreign exchange .Markets are very complex and so are trades, with different strategies working in different market situations.It's very important who you learn from, what you learn from, what strategies, what kind of money management is at the heart of it all and position building .

Bye
  • #364
  • Jan 19, 2022 2:46pm Jan 19, 2022 2:46pm
Honestly babyips has and says a lot about the basics for free. from there you're gonna have to learn on your own or in small groups with a mutual goal of making money in the markets. the rest is test and retest. backtest a little walk it forward way more and keep notes of the bad trades. sometimes you can avoid a lot of them. but you'll never avoid all of them.

id stay away from all it it especially when they give ANY kind of win rate. you dont know if you'll have the same win rate as that person especially if its discretionary rules for entering.
  • #365
  • Edited Jan 20, 2022 5:22am Jan 19, 2022 8:20pm | Edited Jan 20, 2022 5:22am
Quoting captalTrader
Introduction I am a programmer; I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the mql5 market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing...
I would be happy to share my system of trading index using statistics for probability, using outliers to look for distribution wave, using EA for scalping of profitable sizes derived from statistics, using economic calendar before settling down to work, only to know the auction bidding tactics that will be used, use common sense to understand how to humour market makers and make them partners for scalp trading , using patience to skip unremunerative (based on trading costs) compressed range trading and avoid getting fatigued.

I am an Excel novice, and mentor a few retirees free of cost to take small risks to make part-time money. Purely trading on the strength of probability studies facilitated by negligible number of generous programmers occasionally posting the spreadsheets or csv file generators on forums like FF. I have no skills to construct study tools, though I do have ideas on which areas to explore .

I believe forex trading can be conducted in a similar way . If you can spend some time on programming data sets using ExcelRTD , pulling real time data from Excel RTD API servers of brokers like Interactive Brokers . I will be happy to share the client Excel workbook having codes to pull the data in real-time as well as an IB paper trading account to use it for pulling data free of cost.

Inserted Video


I am willing to share my 20 years of online experience in a quest to find automated trading system for all kinds of financial instruments that could really help people make part time income by spending not more than 30 minutes a day.I strongly believe in learning, doing, making part-time income - doing all on a daily basis - because it has worked for me.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #366
  • Jan 20, 2022 4:33am Jan 20, 2022 4:33am
False expectations can lead to great disappointments. Some people want to make millions in the financial markets overnight, but this is not how it works. Trading is a profession where you need to be patient and able to sacrifice for earning small amounts. If it were possible, everyone could make millions overnight.
  • #367
  • Jan 20, 2022 9:45am Jan 20, 2022 9:45am
Quoting simnz
{quote} I would be happy to share my system of trading index using statistics for probability, using outliers to look for distribution wave, using EA for scalping of profitable sizes derived from statistics, using economic calendar before settling down to work, only to know the auction bidding tactics that will be used, use common sense to understand how to humour market makers and make them partners for scalp trading , using patience to skip unremunerative (based on trading costs) compressed range trading and avoid getting fatigued. I am an Excel...
Hi.

I have a small team devoted to programming and Maths applied to trading. If you want to exchange knowledge, I would be glad to do it.
  • #368
  • Jan 20, 2022 9:52am Jan 20, 2022 9:52am
Quoting protradingma
Hello, Stock,index trading is better in my opinion , companies have for example : P/E value and the performance of companies and countries can be analyzed better than foreign exchange .Markets are very complex and so are trades, with different strategies working in different market situations.It's very important who you learn from, what you learn from, what strategies, what kind of money management is at the heart of it all and position building . Bye
Indices are easier to trade, but FX is also a good option.

When you are a scalper, the fundamentals are of no importance to you.

Besides, FX is not driven by fundamentals as you have already noticed.
  • #369
  • Edited 10:23am Jan 20, 2022 9:58am | Edited 10:23am
Yes, forex education is misleading because most of it is created by non-traders - or worse, failed traders - and designed for beginners/"hobby" traders who have no real clue of the actual business they're stepping into (i.e.: how to make money trading v.s. their expectations from baggage accumulated watching movies, reading newspapers, talking to friends, hanging on forums, etc.).

That being said, it is not necessarily with bad intentions, but not necessarily with good intentions either. For example, investopedia seems to be held together by a lot of different people, some of which (most) may or may never have taken a trade in their entire life and most likely never will. The site content ranges from full-blown descriptions of trading strategies (which to be honest might work as a starting ground) to investing advices and anything related to economy broadly. They are content creators, a whole different line of business capitalizing on ad revenue and data hoarding. So to be fair, they don't care what the material is, as long as it drives traffic inside the domain.

In the end, most traders who have a way of navigating the markets successfully don't really have any remaining motive to create educational material to sell. They'll most likely do it for free or not at all. (Not to the masses but to whoever will listen and take it seriously and not ask stupid questions like what is your pnl; because honestly if you're having any skepticism at all about the possibility of achiving success in this business, why even bother? Just walk away and focus on something else in your life that will be more in line with what you think is possible to achieve).

So, yes, the educational marketplace is filled with people who don't trade for a living, and it is misleading to the extent that trading is a solitary endeavor that you develop after spending hours upon hours hammering on your craft. There's simply a big schism between how a professional may think about trading and how the people in the content creation business think about trading.

The educational marketplace is open to every possible kind of person, but mainly the monetary incentive is probably the strognest in this business. The fact that professionals have, for many reasons, no incentive to write or talk openly about their trading operation, leaves the educational marketplace in the hands of non-traders.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #370
  • Jan 20, 2022 1:06pm Jan 20, 2022 1:06pm
Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

In short, YES.

No great mystery here, 99% of you will be cannon fodder for the algos and wiz kids from institutional side. 1% will survive, learn and adapt.
Dues will be payed, nerves will be broken, money will be collected.

Good luck and god bless you!
Help to be helped.
  • #371
  • Jan 20, 2022 1:16pm Jan 20, 2022 1:16pm
Quoting Jaymantos
Yes, forex education is misleading because most of it is created by non-traders - or worse, failed traders - and designed for beginners/"hobby" traders who have no real clue of the actual business they're stepping into (i.e.: how to make money trading v.s. their expectations from baggage accumulated watching movies, reading newspapers, talking to friends, hanging on forums, etc.). That being said, it is not necessarily with bad intentions, but not necessarily with good intentions either. For example, investopedia seems to be held together by a lot...
Regarding traders. I always say the same.

You can easily get 10K-20K bucks per month with a few subscribers to your mentorship just through recurring fees.

Why would you do it for free if you like money? It is like if you are a doctor in medicine and you do not get paid by your classes at the faculty.

I mean, if you could have 5K bucks per month just by sharing a few things with people, why doing it for for free? To me, it makes no sense.

It does not mean you will charge for everything you do in your life, but why being a trader would imply working for free for others or giving away your knowledge. That is absurd in my opinion.
  • #372
  • Jan 20, 2022 1:24pm Jan 20, 2022 1:24pm
Quoting Lazar83
Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid? In short, YES. No great mystery here, 99% of you will be cannon fodder for the algos and wiz kids from institutional side. 1% will survive, learn and adapt. Dues will be payed, nerves will be broken, money will be collected. Good luck and god bless you!
Most people are not really going to learn this ever. The average individual has a limited curiosity and trading requires such level of engament that the average individual simply cannot overcome it.

Maybe if education would be correctly organized, but all the main sources of trading education are bullshit. ALL. And that kills the limited time and effort the average individual is disposed to devote to this.

It is so simple:
- Do not put real money till you are able to multiply by 100 your demo account consistently.

And even doing it, you will lose consistently when you switch to real trading. So be prepared for a hard journey.
  • #373
  • Jan 20, 2022 2:49pm Jan 20, 2022 2:49pm
CapitalTrader - Coming from a point of simplicity, I've wondered if Forex pricing is primarily built around the concept of quarter, halves, and wholes? We see an item priced for a retail sale at $9.99, knowing that if the price goes above the $10.00 mark, the price will quickly escalate to $10.25 upward towards $10.50. If the item won't sell at this price, the price will eventually go back under the ten-dollar mark to the $9.75 and lower. I can't help but wonder if there is a correlation between the concept of retail pricing and values placed on currencies. This is trading at the 'end of the chart' trading quarter points without any consideration of indicators, S&R or anything else. I know this is nothing new, but I don't know if it has been considered in depth. Could it really be that simple?
  • #374
  • Edited 4:08pm Jan 20, 2022 3:58pm | Edited 4:08pm
Today's 800 demoLot USDJPY from big guru Aussi
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussi800.jpg Size: 6 KB
  • #375
  • Jan 20, 2022 10:25pm Jan 20, 2022 10:25pm
Quoting Lest
Today's 800 demoLot USDJPY from big guru Aussi {image}
buy the Dip....

Focus on what DIDN'T happen
  • #376
  • Jan 20, 2022 10:56pm Jan 20, 2022 10:56pm
Quoting FrenchCuff
Coming from a point of simplicity.... Could it really be that simple?
So you think that big players make their trading decisions not because of calculations and analysis, not because of liquidity needed and guarantees but because they just want to buy at 9.99$ and sell at 10.25$?
Observer effect
  • #377
  • Jan 20, 2022 11:57pm Jan 20, 2022 11:57pm
Quoting captalTrader
After 8 months of coding I reached the following conclusions · Not a single popular pattern is profitable, not even one! · 90% indicators are moving averages. Pointless to combine them, they do the same thing! I didn't know there was a research paper published on this point, I wasted so much time on this thanks to user No such thing as Naked or Price action strategy, it’s a joke because candlesticks are momentum indicators! Duh! · Forex is a utilitarian market, Retail trading account for only 10% of the $6.6 trillion per day traded volume....
No lies detected. There is a world of profitability to be discovered trading the (mostly) random FX market though. Once you stop wasting time with traditional forex education and methods and start working with probabilities, there is a whole new world to be discovered. Just because quant methods can't detect patterns (or take advantage of them before they vanish) doesn't mean quantitative methods cannot be profitable.
  • #378
  • Jan 21, 2022 2:18am Jan 21, 2022 2:18am
Hey, I've read post until page 3, then I stopped, because my opinion is: The demand and supply of currencies is not driven by technical analysis or any of candlestick patterns. There are underlying assets with flows between countries. At certain time in a day they must be cleared out.
Maybe technical could be some kind possible prediction on crypto, because there is nothing there but trading for some 0 and 1 written in electronic world with no practical use (yet - and probably in the near future)
I hope I wrote it in understandable way.

P.S. I'm observing the Forex market for 3 years, not profitable yet...
  • #379
  • Edited 2:52am Jan 21, 2022 2:36am | Edited 2:52am
Personally, I say simplify your method. Simplify your analysis. Cut away the fat. Get rid of the garbage. That should be your focus. Pretty sure its true of all things in life. At least thats my approach. Try it out, cant hurt.
Focus on what DIDN'T happen
  • #380
  • Jan 21, 2022 4:36am Jan 21, 2022 4:36am
and for crying out loud, you don't have to trade every day.....

Please...don't fall for it...
Focus on what DIDN'T happen
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