DislikedAs the saying goes, those tt cant do - teach. Which is very true, why would any profitable/experienced traders teach anyone.Ignored
Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?
- #342
- Jan 18, 2022 5:55pm Jan 18, 2022 5:55pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} You blow my mind{IMO regression can reflect the “force” of transaction size} Which transaction will be reflected, the ones that bought or the ones that sold at this particular second I'm trying this? {while simple patterns work is probably because the vast number of retail traders are referring to them, so the transaction size that can make the pattern work is not as strong ie not that high probability} Lost lost lost
Shouldn't the simple pattern work since the majority refer to them? Why...
Regression model is something I use because my thesis is as price move further in a swing, the more orders are against its direction, including the Big Players (remember they have slight power to manipulate, so it is of their incentive to sell as price go up).
And since human including those program the algo do not perform random decisions (also support why market is not random), there will be patterns that can generate >50% probability and caused by sentiment. But I doubt it is simple patterns (Actuaries in banks probably not using them)
Some retail price patterns work as of self-fulfilling prophecy. Traders in A-book brokers, when they accumulate a sizeable BUY order at a so-called support, price do bounce there. But it is not comparable to overall sentiment and big players so not working as good as some other approaches
So it is down to mathematics and statistics and better adjust to current volatility. Therefore the regression models.
One regression model tool I still use
- #343
- Jan 18, 2022 6:30pm Jan 18, 2022 6:30pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
Introduction I am a programmer; I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the mql5 market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing...
May I add my opinion to your conclusions
· Not a single popular pattern is profitable, not even one!
I agree with you on this, backed by a research paper
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...et_Eurusd_Case
· 90% indicators are moving averages. Pointless to combine them, they do the same thing!
Yes but depends on their equations they tell you different aspect of the price history, so traders better understand what aspect he needs and pick the correct ones. And not so good an idea to combine indicators for same aspect, eg MACD + Stoch
· No such thing as Naked or Price action strategy, it’s a joke because candlesticks are momentum indicators! Duh!
Actually I think it is closest to my thesis of trading based on chaotic sentiment. Momentum is very important IMO
· Forex is a utilitarian market, Retail trading account for only 10% of the $6.6 trillion per day traded volume.
I don’t have comment on that
· Most retail trading income comes from Marketing, Yep! The gurus, telegram/Instagram signals and EAs. Almost no one makes money from actual trading. Why?
Some are scams. But also reasonable for a profitable trader to translate his risky but valuable asset into more consistent ones. The success rate of 5% as many believe also means there are profitable traders
· Stock Market and Forex market is apple and oranges, nothing in common. So why use candlesticks that were designed for Stocks on Forex?
I partially agree because simple patterns work better at smaller cap markets but still work (slightly) in Fx
· Forex Market is random. RANDOM (I replace Random with Chaotic)
- #344
- Jan 18, 2022 8:42pm Jan 18, 2022 8:42pm
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Trader/Coder | 1,929 Posts
Forex Market is random. RANDOM (I replace Random with Chaotic)
Liquidity is the fuel for the market. Stops are liquidity and 100% guarantee of liquidity. Limit orders too, but much to a lesser extent, because they can be moved/removed/modified, also because of its nature (must match the opposite).
The problem of most traders is that they "learn" all, but not what is really needed. Ask them about order types and what is the difference between them. Ask about mechanics. Ask how orderbook works. And you will hear poker face discussion about trillion markets, manipulations, moving average lags, rsi oversold and other bullshit. But never hear real and important information.
Observer effect
{quote} May I add my opinion to your conclusions · Not a single popular pattern is profitable, not even one! I agree with you on this, backed by a research paper https://www.researchgate.net/publica...et_Eurusd_Case · 90% indicators are moving averages. Pointless to combine them, they do the same thing! Yes but depends on their equations they tell you different aspect of the price history, so traders better understand what aspect he needs and pick the correct ones....
Sir why are you don't have a comment on the most important fact there
I'm hurt for you to partially agreeing to that other fact too (are you here just to hurt my feelings sir
)Kudos for reading that humble piece of mine with understanding and not come as defensive
I appreciate it
{quote} When I was learning Price Action I came across a few traders on Youtube aligning of my perspective towards Fx market. To avoid any misunderstanding and conflict, I only name one that has been around for 3 years and still at least in her Youtube Video I don't see any selling incurred, but sharing of her own trading as general references for others (I only watched a few of her videos, I don't see her disclosing her exact strategy too). https://www.youtube.com/c/HANNAHFOREX/videos
Still no one can prove she actually makes money doing what she tell people about, the price action and what's not. We can say she's a Guru...making her money through marketing, yes?
- #351
- Jan 18, 2022 11:15pm Jan 18, 2022 11:15pm
{quote} She's not sharing the exact strategy for a reason. She's not selling anything of course, her business is "Numbers" too the more people she attract to her video the more Money she make. She even have her own broker
- #354
- Edited Jan 19, 2022 12:05am Jan 18, 2022 11:38pm | Edited Jan 19, 2022 12:05am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
- #355
- Jan 18, 2022 11:47pm Jan 18, 2022 11:47pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} She's not sharing the exact strategy for a reason. She's not selling anything of course, her business is "Numbers" too the more people she attract to her video the more Money she make. She even have her own broker
Just out of curiosity, I looked up the calculation.
Her channel is 3 years old, has 77 videos, many in their 20-30k total view, a couple >100k. Roughly 4.6Million total view.
Say 4.6 Million total view in 3 year, give it higher 1.7 Mil/ year. Also say every single view is engaged 100% = Play through the whole video without quitting.
My advice to her would be, Just get a job
Just For Fun.
I watched Aussie trading in the morning. Demo guru Aussie has doubled the volume, posted screenshots back a few minutes later when trades are profitable. The number of ignored is growing fast, there are already 88.
https://www.metalsmine.com/thread/po...7#post13862697
https://www.metalsmine.com/thread/po...7#post13862697
{quote} I am not sure and not familiar with income via Youtube. Just out of curiosity, I looked up the calculation. Her channel is 3 years old, has 77 videos, many in their 20-30k total view, a couple >100k. Roughly 4.6Million total view. Say 4.6 Million total view in 3 year, give it higher 1.7 Mil/ year. Also say every single view is engaged 100% = Play through the whole video without quitting. My advice to her would be, Just get a job
but as long as she doesn't take monies from poor folks.
{quote} Hi CaptalTrader, "Big players will often play against the Retail traders, since they the big players now Retail traders patterns, when retail traders are expected to buy e.g Support patterns, big players will do the opposite?" I leans on the main game is between the big players. For some examples, government wants to depreciate its currency to stimulate export of goods. HK, for example, uses it reserve to maintain the "targeted currency correlation" with USD. For private sector, Banks needs to mobilize its capital across border and need...
Everything you said make sense. Your last point, why would Goldman Sachs risk 4.5B just to take out retailers?
If retailers say we're to abstain for a day. No patterns of 'stop hunt' will be observable on the charts?
So let's say there's a obvious Support level and most of retailers buy EURUSD and their stoploss is below this Support level.
Their stoploss simply mean they are offering to buy USD at this particular price. If Goldman Sachs see these USD offers and they do have USDs to sell and are interested to sell them at that offered price or prices which would be similar or close together since theoritically every retailer is doing the same trade setup and stoploss.
Do we say Goldman Sachs hunted this poor trades's Stoploss or they were just doing their business?
Remember Forex market quotes are just last recorded deals done. Say EURUSD is quoted at 1.1342, retailers see this as Support, buy it put stoploss at range 1.1302. And now quotes just straight to 1.1302 hit their stops and jumps back up to 1.1342 and up. This simply means their sell offers (stoploss) were taken and then there was another offers made above 1.1342 so trading was done there too
I hope I'm making sense
{quote} Everything you said make sense. Your last point, why would Goldman Sachs risk 4.5B just to take out retailers? If retailers say we're to abstain for a day. No patterns of 'stop hunt' will be observable on the charts? So let's say there's a obvious Support level and most of retailers buy EURUSD and their stoploss is below this Support level. Their stoploss simply mean they are offering to buy USD at this particular price. If Goldman Sachs see these USD offers and they do have USDs to sell and are interested to sell them at that offered price...
- #360
- Jan 19, 2022 2:00am Jan 19, 2022 2:00am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,318 Posts
{quote} I'm enjoying myself very much Thank you {image}
It never gets easier, you just get better