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The Long and Winding Road of Trading Journey

  • #181
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:07pm Jan 18, 2022 9:07pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} though i still have not got rid of the gbpusd losses, i managed to increase the return. {image}
od still there.
reached my target of 20% per month.
now i have 4.2% of equity to play with in case of a loss.
i use all time (started 27dec21) because i was locked out of server for more than a week.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #182
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:22pm Jan 18, 2022 9:22pm
i had just read from ICT to look for high low of the week to form between monday and wednesday new york open.
so we have until then to know where the low for gold is.
or ...... could i interpret that if the trend keeps going south, then the high already formed on monday?
anyway, it's just a guide.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #183
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:47pm Jan 18, 2022 9:47pm
interesting from us news yesterday. what will london session say?
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #184
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:44am Jan 19, 2022 1:44am
gold 5m, liq grabbed (Asia high) followed by bos.
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  • #185
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:52am Jan 19, 2022 1:52am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} {quote} {quote} i don't know whether you notice these or not. you like to trade counter trend. i used to do that because of the excitement of able to catch the top and bottom. this is something you have to seriously look into. one trades both sides long and short if a range has been spotted. if you notice, i had been shorting all week long ............ i consider long if price has done a 5 or 7 or 9 waves run, when it exhaust itself. counter trend may be one of the main reasons why traders are losing and then blaming on the system or the...

Thanks. A lot of ppl say, always go with trend, ive heard it a billion times, but when i ask them, they can never define properly how to determine trend. Which trend to follow? H1? H4? D? W? M? its all so subjective. Then if i see more than 1 TF, they tend to contradict each other. THen do what? Lol. THen how to determine trend, some say ADX, i tested, its lagging. Some use Trendline, i try to draw, always come out different. What do you do to define trend and on which TF bro? Thanks!
  • #186
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:54am Jan 19, 2022 1:54am
SO far today seems messy. I could only spot this on XAU and even so it seems messy
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  • #187
  • Edited 2:39am Jan 19, 2022 2:00am | Edited 2:39am
Quoting Chrissk
gold 5m, liq grabbed (Asia high) followed by bos. {image}
gold 1m, closing quick scalp since few minutes before London open and price reacted off to OB.
Still in a tight squeezing range and in the middle of previous day NY low & high.
Waiting for retracement to either yesterdays NY low/high before considering more entries, right now sitting in the middle still.

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  • #188
  • Edited 2:41am Jan 19, 2022 2:02am | Edited 2:41am
Quoting benjamintoh8
SO far today seems messy. I could only spot this on XAU and even so it seems messy {image} {image}
Yesterdays news caused a lot of volatility followed by lower period volatility.
Good idea to patiently keep waiting right now I think, so much undecision.
  • #189
  • Edited 3:31am Jan 19, 2022 2:24am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting benjamintoh8
{quote} Thanks. A lot of ppl say, always go with trend, ive heard it a billion times, but when i ask them, they can never define properly how to determine trend. Which trend to follow? H1? H4? D? W? M? its all so subjective. Then if i see more than 1 TF, they tend to contradict each other. THen do what? Lol. THen how to determine trend, some say ADX, i tested, its lagging. Some use Trendline, i try to draw, always come out different. What do you do to define trend and on which TF bro? Thanks!
Id start out with a simple approach - daily, 4h & 1h higher highs (uptrend) and lower lows (downtrend) thats what is considered a trend in my opinion.

If You cant get them all to agree with eachother then its also fine. I also like to/more advanced approach is to trade retracements/have some idea of higher timeframes (4h,daily,weekly) after approaching key level aka support/resistance, cause retracements/pullbacks are most likely to come. If You can see they have gotten liquidity/price approached support/resistance and reacted off strongly (HTF wicks/dojis) followed by lower timeframe starts presuring on opposite side (impulsive move + compression back to ob/LTF quasimodo) in confluence with session opens & previous session/day/week/month liquidity grabs etc then theres also a really good trade opportunites. It can also be a HTF (4h/1h) quasimodo approaching weekly/daily level/OB like gbpjpy or gold for example did last week(s).

The most important thing is to know when to stay away and having patience to keep waiting for a near ideal/perfect setup -
You want the highest probabilities be in Your favor still.

Also develop Your own system/way of looking into market, maybe take something from others but - Youre gonna be the one whos trading it in the end, gain experience, practise, forwardtest & backtest it really is a long journey and constant battle with Yourself psychologically especially when starting out. You need to have some kind of idea what Youre looking for, how many pips? How long You plan to be in trade? Wheres the potential TP? If LTF structure changes - higher highs now lower lows, do You breakeven or wait till SL gets hit? etc etc.. Look market from both perspectives.
Price action is the king still, indicators dont move the market, mostly they are just lagging and confusing and just telling You what have happened already. Trendlines can help to spot trend ascent change/upcoming shift in market structure, can also act as a channel or dynamic S/R or bait You into SL. Its just a one confluence, when taking trade You should have atleast few high probability confluences.

Good luck & good trading!
  • #190
  • Jan 19, 2022 5:29am Jan 19, 2022 5:29am
Quoting Inthebox
don't like the compression. how will it turn out? will there be a repeat of the pattern like the previous box? not trading much today. have to go out. having a scalp going short. hope it won't bounce up. {image}
I see that You use similar idea.
Thats the way how to trade gold!

Though Im using it a bit differently, last few hours of Asia session im looking to get some kind of contraction (low volatility) with stops sitting below and above - usually around 15-20 pip contraction/compression box range @ gold and then either manipulation to the opposite side along with Asia high/low liquidity grab + bos into my HTF bias side & retest of OB/BB (basically LTF QM). Frankfurt/early London seems to be making the golden zone OTE usually for me. If most or atleast the last part, few hours of Asia is not ranging then not a ideal setup for me and will look more forward into NY. Taking advantage of low volatility followed by high volatility expansions.

Today was looking to target Asia lows into previous day NY OB but got caught in manipulation "phase 2", sometimes makes 2 "bigger" phases after SL hunt to get both early sellers and buyers out, but quickly realised this with wick reactions and closed trade into untested OB. Still managed to get few pips in and protect rest of the equity. Work in progress still, thats just the idea Im working with for Frankfurt/London session right now only to capture the first big portion of daily move, backtesting + forwardtesting alot to perfect the system but looks really promising since thats one of the ways how the market "intraday algo" plays around. Alot of similar scenarios are there from last weeks gold chart as well, some of them being really beautifully lined up and also posted here too, alot of similar ideas to work with/review. : )

Contraction-manipulation-trend /
Accumulation-manipulation-distribution

Todays example
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  • #191
  • Jan 19, 2022 5:53am Jan 19, 2022 5:53am
Quoting Chrissk
{quote} I see that You use similar idea. Thats the way how to trade gold! Though Im using it a bit differently, last few hours of Asia session im looking to get some kind of contraction (low volatility) with stops sitting below and above - usually around 15-20 pip contraction/compression box range @ gold and then either manipulation to the opposite side along with Asia high/low liquidity grab + bos into my HTF bias side & retest of OB/BB (basically LTF QM). Frankfurt/early London seems to be making the golden zone OTE usually for me. If most or...
Actual reason why my first idea didnt play out as expected and I was in the wrong side - previous day (double bottom $$) liquidity was grabbed already by Asia to fuel the run to the upside. Another possibility/look to the market. Didnt see it at first glance but now figured it out - learning from mistakes!

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  • #192
  • Jan 19, 2022 5:55am Jan 19, 2022 5:55am
Quoting Inthebox
don't like the compression. how will it turn out? will there be a repeat of the pattern like the previous box? not trading much today. have to go out. having a scalp going short. hope it won't bounce up. {image}
the long turned out to be so with trend line and round number.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #193
  • Jan 19, 2022 6:03am Jan 19, 2022 6:03am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} the long turned out to be so. {image}
NY can still make suprises and form a reversal.
Orders started coming in @ 1807-1808 yesterday, makes sense if they visit this area again.

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  • #194
  • Edited 7:13am Jan 19, 2022 6:39am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting benjamintoh8
{quote} Thanks. A lot of ppl say, always go with trend, ive heard it a billion times, but when i ask them, they can never define properly how to determine trend. Which trend to follow? H1? H4? D? W? M? its all so subjective. Then if i see more than 1 TF, they tend to contradict each other. THen do what? Lol. THen how to determine trend, some say ADX, i tested, its lagging. Some use Trendline, i try to draw, always come out different. What do you do to define trend and on which TF bro? Thanks!
people say this is trend, that is trend, all were said relative to themselves, according to their own experiences.
you see that is the problem. one is using others experiences to define something for oneself.
but the important point is what is trend relative to yourself? how do you define your own trend?
you have to do all the researches, testings, trials and errors for yourself in order to find out.
then you set your own rules.

i can only speak for myself and may not apply to others.
as a short term / day trader, i use h1 and h4 fractals, trend lines to define trend.
you would already know that the higher time frame, the more reliable it is.
if your trade is based on a lower time frame, then you should know what kind of risk you are taking.

in the chart you can see 4 fractals in h4, making lower high, lower low. it is for a medium term out look. then i can draw a downward sloping trend line.
this means that if price is below the h4 upward sloping and downward sloping trend lines, one should only short.

now you have the option to use or not to use h1 similarly to trade. it is for a short term out look.
if you decide to use h1, then know that it is more risky.
you have a few options:
1. short when price retraces near to h4 trend lines.
2. short when price is below h1 upward sloping trend line.

if you want to use further smaller time frames, that is really entirely up to your own judgement.
for example, whether using m5 for 20 pips tp as relative to the the time frame used or 60 pips ............

that is the gist of my idea.

trading is not a precise science, it is an art.
the art of knowing when to trade, when not to trade, the art of knowing risk management, the art of knowing trade management.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #195
  • Jan 19, 2022 7:41am Jan 19, 2022 7:41am
Quoting Chrissk
{quote} NY can still make suprises and form a reversal. Orders started coming in @ 1807-1808 yesterday, makes sense if they visit this area again. {image}
For a moment it looked alright but eventually got stopped out like nothing, had a chance to BE based on candlestick closes but wasnt infront of charts.
RR wise would have been amazing trade, so always worth to give it a shot with some nice confluences since NY is a famous reversal maker.
Trying tomorrow again if something nice occurs. ^^

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  • #196
  • Jan 19, 2022 7:52am Jan 19, 2022 7:52am
Quoting Chrissk
{quote} For a moment it looked alright but eventually got stopped out like nothing, had a chance to BE based on candlestick closes but wasnt infront of charts. RR wise would have been amazing trade, so always worth to give it a shot with some nice confluences since NY is a famous reversal maker. Trying tomorrow again if something nice occurs. ^^ {image}
my view is that they took the anticipation of the us news as an opportunity to up the price above 17/18 jan high.
liquidity pool may be above there. let's see will price close above 1825.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #197
  • Jan 19, 2022 8:07am Jan 19, 2022 8:07am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} my view is that they took the anticipation of the us news as an opportunity to up the price above 17/18 jan high. liquidity pool may be above there. let's see will price close above 1825.
Can be, I will patiently wait right now and watch, cant touch anything today anymore just to not invalidate my max daily loss/risk parameters.
1830 could be a intresting area/turning point also where alot of orders might be sitting.
Will determine next trade tomorrow morning (EU time- before Asia close) based on what Asia and NY did.
Fraknfurt/London open hoping to catch some nice moves tomorrow.
Also DXY seems to be gearing up for next leg up.
  • #198
  • Jan 19, 2022 9:18am Jan 19, 2022 9:18am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} my view is that they took the anticipation of the us news as an opportunity to up the price above 17/18 jan high. liquidity pool may be above there. let's see will price close above 1825.
broke up. not even a retest of broken h4 trend line.
but we are now filling up a h4 liquidity void.
try for a short 1836.16.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #199
  • Jan 19, 2022 7:37pm Jan 19, 2022 7:37pm
sr flip with liq void.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #200
  • Edited 10:32pm Jan 19, 2022 10:10pm | Edited 10:32pm
extracts from ICT Mentorship 2022 Introduction.

only you yourself can validate whether this is true of yourself or not.

"some of you absolutely will fail. in 2016 i started a paid mentorship and i had students from that time period that are still trying to find their way and they cannot make this thing work for themselves. i had other students form 2016 that are absolutely having mind blowing results. so it's not a short coming of what has been taught, it's just individual unique experience. some of you simply will not do things i asked you to do. you will not do them effectively and you try to short cut certain things and you think that you don't need to do these and not do that. and your results will be reduced because of that."

=====================================================

"you don't need to be highly precisive about your entries. but you need to be precise about direction wise and where it is going."
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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