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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #301
  • Edited 8:48am Jan 18, 2022 8:23am | Edited 8:48am
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I don't know to quote multiple times

wrap everything you want to quote inside these brackets [quote^] [/quote^] *but remove the "^"

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If you're a smat and knowledgeable business, you'd know about hedge funds before investing in a foreign markets to avoid have to risk your profits being affected by exchange rates. What a headache having to deal with after working so much for those profits. So maybe there're recless businesses like that but I don't think they're that many

i'm not talking about using forex as profit center like sales or as a hedge fund would. i'm talking about reading the market and attempting to mitigate small losses by being proactive instead of always letting the market happen to you. this is not theory, companies do this every day in the real world with materials and currencies. sometimes they use derivatives or options instead of directly holding inventory. but it is effectively the same.

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There's no herd mentality on Forex market so there won't be any meaningful trends or S/R levels.
sure there is. but you have to rearrange the definition. when market news comes out why does price move? because all the large entities respond in the same way to the news. That's herd moving in the same direction at the same time. if interest rates double in america i guarantee you price will move and there will be a lot of one sided market pressure.

if you don't believe S/R levels are real it only means you haven't studied the charts enough. That does not mean that you know what will happen at these levels, but S/R levels are 1000% an indication of interest and activity at a given price range. if you're creative enough you can use that to your advantage. S/R only means large entities like price and that they have remaining orders at that price. it's real phenomena. you'd best figure it out lol

Same thing about trends, you haven't looked at the charts hard enough. Economic forces cause entities all over the globe to desire one currency over another. these forces create trends that can last for weeks/months/years.

Quote
Yes forex charts do have a lot of info on WHAT HAD HAPPENED. Not useful so much though for speculation hence so many lose so much
yes. charts only tell what happened. but if i know that price went up, and i know that markets are mean reverting, then what do you know will happen???
i know that price will go down at some point in the future. again, you have to reorganize the way you are internalizing you thoughts on speculation and what the charts are telling you. the charts/price give you actionable data, maybe not definitive predictive data, but it is actionable.

i really think you have to adjust your thought process.
  • #302
  • Edited 8:50am Jan 18, 2022 8:30am | Edited 8:50am
Quote
So tell me, taking this 50/50 chance logic, is chart analysis that important in Forex markets to be profitable?

this. now your brain is working. what if you changed your mind about trends?(because they do exist) what if you were able to win 50/50, but you then improved your ability to take advantage of a trend? you could make money right? i beg you to challenge your own thought process. it's what it is holding you back.

you can take quick glance at the weekly chart and develop an opinion on the current trend of a currency pair. ask yourself "is this pair trending up, down, or sideways?" "what are the odds that this trend will end the moment i get into the trade?" "how can i take advantage of trends like this over the next 100 trades?"

yes chart analysis is important, but you don't need fibs and nautilus shells to do it. you just need to buy low, sell high, and trade small enough to give yourself time to be right.


Quote
I want to sell that data

fine i'll vote lol
  • #303
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:19am Jan 18, 2022 9:19am
Quoting beastwork
{quote} wrap everything you want to quote inside these brackets [quote^] [/quote^] *but remove the "^" {quote} i'm not talking about using forex as profit center like sales as a hedge fund would. i'm talking about reading the market and attempting to mitigate small losses by being proactive instead of always letting the market happen to you. this is not theory, companies do this every day in the real world with materials and currencies. sometimes they use derivatives or options instead of directly holding inventory. but it is effectively the same....
Businesses use hedge funds to hedge their foreign investments or I should say Foreign exchange brokers or Money brokers. Money brokers then deal with the exchange risks. Personally I never knew there's a mining company out there with currency technical analysis division. We learn everyday

Imagine If news hype or herd activity would last for at least 2 hours, just imagine that!

You explained so lovely how news move prices but when it came to S/R you decided to insult my creativity, telling me to work hard, okay you sound like a motivational speaker now.

I know trends last for weeks I know what causes them, I know supply and demand. I was hoping you'd tell me the logic behind the S/R. Tell me how do you know WHEN the trend will end, WHEN it will start. Because Charts can show the trends OK but can I get on it now charts? Won't it end as I enter?

You see I'm not here telling you to stop using your charts, I never questioned your thinking and where did I say I have a problem?

Why are you instructing me what I should do now? Weird.
  • #304
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:29am Jan 18, 2022 9:29am
Quoting beastwork
{quote} this. now your brain is working. what if you changed your mind about trends?(because they do exist) what if you were able to win 50/50, but you then improved your ability to take advantage of a trend? you could make money right? i beg you to challenge your own thought process. it's what it is holding you back. you can take quick glance at the weekly chart and develop an opinion on the current trend of a currency pair. ask yourself "is this pair trending up, down, or sideways?" "what are the odds that this trend will end the moment i get...
Insulting me as you begin to make your argument won't make me change my point of view since we're now arguing no longer sharing ideas

Holding me back where????

I know why the pair went sideways. I don't know if it will continue going sideways!!!!

The odds are 50/50

When is High? When is Low. Remember I know the past too, I'm asking WHEN???

You came as a open minded guy at first. You're just another part of the 2% profitable class go away!!
  • #305
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:33am Jan 18, 2022 9:33am
Quote
Personally I never knew there's a mining company out there with currency technical analysis division. We learn everyday

i didn't say this. you're twisting my words. don't get cute ;-). companies hedge against commodity and currency prices...this a fact. they each have their own methods. large enough companies have entire treasury departments dedicated to exactly this sort of thing. i doubt they use hocus pocus technical analysis. they use market research, MA etc.

i'm not insulting you. just challenging you. do not take what i'm saying personally. i am highlighting flaws/disagreements in what you've said. that is all. sorry for offending you, it was not my intent. hopefully we can get back to friendly conversation.

you can't know when a trend will begin or end. that is calling tops and bottoms and no one can do this. the charts can't tell you this. HOWEVER S/R holds up in hindsight. again, it is a real phenomena. there are creative ways to take advantage of this.

stick around. gonna share some charts later today.
  • #306
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:38am Jan 18, 2022 9:38am
Quoting beastwork
{quote} i didn't say this. you're twisting my words. don't get cute ;-). companies hedge against commodity and currency prices...this a fact. they each have their own methods. large enough companies have entire treasury departments dedicated to exactly this sort of thing. i doubt they use hocus pocus technical analysis. they use market research, MA etc. i'm not insulting you. just challenging you. do not take what i'm saying personally. i am highlighting flaws/disagreements in what you've said. that is all. sorry for offending you, it was not my...
Just explain your S/R using my Herd mentality logic that's all

I didn't say they don't exist, I only said they don't make sense. All you have to do is point me to the correct numbers. Go!

Why do you think showing me your charts that I know 100% how they work will convince me that S/R works?

Show me the logic behind the S/R and pretty sure I wouldn't have a problem seeing them on the charts or using them

About hedge funds and companies, you just prove my point! I wonder how we got to discuss it to begin with
  • #307
  • Jan 18, 2022 10:10am Jan 18, 2022 10:10am
I hope anyone who would come and challenge my thinking would see this comment.

Stock market, there's herd activity hence chart patterns have meaning and logic behind.

Forex market, no herd activity hence chart patterns have no meaning and logic behind.

Is this my opinion? No it's a fact.

Fact number 1: More than 90% of Forex moves are influenced by business transactions. Businesses don't look at chart patterns first to exchange. They do for many different reasons.

Fact number 2: Stock market is for speculation, speculators want to do the same thing, PROFIT. Every transaction on the stock market is influenced by profits. People do same things, influence similar outcome!

To tell me about charts, patterns or any other indicators, you first have to dispute fact number 1.

Notebook ready, try to be nice, remember we're not arguing just exchanging ideas

Go!!
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  • #308
  • Jan 18, 2022 10:31am Jan 18, 2022 10:31am
Quoting captalTrader
Is this my opinion? No it's a fact.
You have made up your mind already, so whats the point to argue with you or educate you.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #309
  • Jan 18, 2022 10:43am Jan 18, 2022 10:43am
If one believes herd mentality is a force, a trend is a thing that can be taken advantage of.

The market is not random. It’s chaotic (chaotic system: if you know all variables, such as the actual amount of transactions, who exactly when place a Buy/sell at what size, in the FX decentralised market, then the price movement is certain)

Random and Chaotic are completely different terms that better not to confuse
  • #310
  • Jan 18, 2022 10:43am Jan 18, 2022 10:43am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} You have made up your mind already, so whats the point to argue with you or educate you. {image}
No sir I have not made up my mind. It's only the facts Infront of me, maybe there's alternative facts you never know.

Or better, maybe it's my interpretation that's wrong

If no one comes up and show me the alternative interpretation maybe we will go ahead and conclude that yes, Forex aducation is indeed misleading.

Then we will begin to discuss alternative ways to solve this problem. It cannot be that we will have the same problems for ages! All millions of us? Noway. Something is completely wrong! Big way!
  • #311
  • Jan 18, 2022 10:54am Jan 18, 2022 10:54am
Quoting tommydoginti
If one believes herd mentality is a force, a trend is a thing that can be taken advantage of. The market is not random. It’s chaotic (chaotic system: if you know all variables, such as the actual amount of transactions, who exactly when place a Buy/sell at what size, in the FX decentralised market, then the price movement is certain)
I have stopped using the word RANDOM, sorry about that.

Chaotic seems fitting because chaos means there's no order, there's the single goal, there's no herd!

Now can we agree that no one can know this information or the variables? Yes? Since indeed the Forex market is decentralised.

I mean it's not impossible to try and get much of this information as you can by colluding with your competitors, example, Banks sharing their customers orders data but that would be illegal.

But now we're here now not in fantasy world. Can we as individuals predict chaotic events? If yes how?

I want to know your Charts opinion too. We agree that chart are plotted by chaotic data. Now is it possible to predict future chaos uses past chaos data?
  • #312
  • Jan 18, 2022 11:25am Jan 18, 2022 11:25am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} I have stopped using the word RANDOM, sorry about that. Chaotic seems fitting because chaos means there's no order, there's the single goal, there's no herd! Now can we agree that no one can know this information or the variables? Yes? Since indeed the Forex market is decentralised. I mean it's not impossible to try and get much of this information as you can by colluding with your competitors, example, Banks sharing their customers orders data but that would be illegal. But now we're here now not in fantasy world. Can we as individuals...
This thread belongs in the Rookie Talk Section.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #313
  • Jan 18, 2022 11:32am Jan 18, 2022 11:32am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} I have stopped using the word RANDOM, sorry about that. Chaotic seems fitting because chaos means there's no order, there's the single goal, there's no herd! Now can we agree that no one can know this information or the variables? Yes? Since indeed the Forex market is decentralised. I mean it's not impossible to try and get much of this information as you can by colluding with your competitors, example, Banks sharing their customers orders data but that would be illegal. But now we're here now not in fantasy world. Can we as individuals...

If it is chaotic then the so called edge is possible.

it also means the big players can manipulate the market, either top down as sendiment management, to simply placing huge order to manipulate price, because the market is chaotic but driven by transactions. But it also means those transactions can leave a footprint on the price history that is possible to be evaluated statistically and be used as strategy.

Chaotic events cannot be predicted, but it has repeatable patterns. “Trade what we see not what we think” is a very good guide to develop trading strategies that is targeting higher probability repeatable patterns, and the chance is not 50/50.

And I would suggest to go to higher level pattern recognition like regression models, not just simple candlestick patterns. IMO regression can reflect the “force” of transaction size, while simple patterns work is probably because the vast number of retail traders are referring to them, so the transaction size that can make the pattern work is not as strong ie not that high probability
  • #314
  • Jan 18, 2022 11:49am Jan 18, 2022 11:49am
Clarification Points (Point that every consistent trader knows I mean these who are profitable and consistent)
-There is no such thing called random market ( market move in swings)
what differentiates winners from losers???
•Trading with the trend
•Trading With Price Action Using reliable chart patterns and candlestick
•Trading using Support and resistance levels.
patterns.
•Trading in larger timeframes
•Making your winners larger than your losing trades
•Waiting patiently for the right trade setups and not chasing trades hey...this stuffs become little bit different for fundermental news traders but it's a good way to consistency

WHAT DOES NOT EXIST????
a perfect trading tool , Ea ,Robot or whatever does exist without a reliable good strategy which are derived from price action anyway.....(all winning strategy that can be coded into Robot or whatever are the one that give winning tool, agree with me or not they are derived from price action anyway).......A bitter truth huh yes it is!!
Don't go around looking for "miracles robot or system" to trade for you because if there is no Good strategy behind it ,it will never be consistent tool to profit ,,and that good strategy are derived from price action.

WHO ARE THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS
it's very good to know who you are dealing with
it's very easy to know how Big sharks swim in the ocean because every trade in forex are being traded over the Counter (OTC)
Here it's a screenshot to see the difference on how stock market and forex market are traded
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These are some few stones you can use to parley in the market because for one thing that I know every Profitable and consistent trader here in FF will likely tell you the same things am not taking about these traders who are making hundreds $$ today and loose thousands $$ tomorrow am talking about consistent traders & profitable ones
Best of luck to everyone
I live in the future
  • #315
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:16pm Jan 18, 2022 1:16pm
Quote
Forex market, no herd activity hence chart patterns have no meaning and logic behind.
like many conversations, semantics get in the way of moving the debate forward. when you say herd activity i'm thinking news has come out and now a currency is in high demand from everyone. PRiCE climbs higher. call it herd mentality, call supply and demand. call it whatever you want. the fact is that enough institutions have decided it's smart to buy that currency therefore price goes up. yes? again, don't worry about semantics.

Quote
Fact number 1: More than 90% of Forex moves are influenced by business transactions. Businesses don't look at chart patterns first to exchange. They do for many different reasons.
agree that 90%+ of moves in forex are driven by large institutions for whatever reason. they do not look for chart patterns. however institutions with savvy treasury departments DO attempt to hedge against losses on exchange rates. FACT! those hedges eventually find their way into the forex rates that we see.

my thoughts on support resistance.
1. institutions have price ranges that they try to buy at. these are the S/R levels that you can see all over the charts. it's really that simple. i have $1M EUR bill to pay. i need to buy EUR to pay this bill. i will do my best to acquire the EUR at a price that i have decided is the best based on my analysis. a company doing a multimillion EUR deal is not just exchanging their currency at whatever spot rate the market says they should pay. that's what you do at the airport on holiday, it's not how sophisticated businesses work. the same is true on the sell side.
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Look at this chart. i opened the failed trade on Jan 13 based on my rules. my rules had zero to do with S/R. however after following the trade for a few hours i added the S/R lines you see, just as a curiosity.

Here's what i see. support that became resistance 2 times. and a 3rd time that caused my trade to fail. i see a downward trend between jun and december. i see a possible trend reversal starting in december. or maybe its just pull back that will continue downward. let me be clear. i do not know where price will go, even after what i've said. HOWEVER i can see a way to profit off the patterns in front of us.

learning about S/R is not really about predicting the future with certainty. it's more about understanding the underpinnings of what price is showing you so that you can develop strategies. no one knows where price will go, but if you can understand price action you can place some pretty good bets. your mindset towards this is needs an adjustment, just my opinion. you're stuck on narrow views of words and concepts. let your creativity run wild and solutions will come to you. this is the part that gurus can not give you. there are people who rob the banks daily using the charts and S/R. you haven't figured it out yet so you say it's not real. i assure you for some it is very real.

Everything successful i've done in stocks, forex, real estate etc. has ultimately come down to one thing. TREND! if you trade with the trend you will win. if you trade against the trend it becomes difficult to win. S/R, chart patterns, TA can be used to help "improve" your profitability. But TREND is King, queen and jack.

but you already said you don't believe in trend so there may be no saving you. :-)
  • #316
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:25pm Jan 18, 2022 1:25pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} If it is chaotic then the so called edge is possible. it also means the big players can manipulate the market, either top down as sendiment management, to simply placing huge order to manipulate price, because the market is chaotic but driven by transactions. But it also means those transactions can leave a footprint on the price history that is possible to be evaluated statistically and be used as strategy. Chaotic events cannot be predicted, but it has repeatable patterns. “Trade what we see not what we think” is a very good guide to develop...
You blow my mind

{IMO regression can reflect the “force” of transaction size}

Which transaction will be reflected, the ones that bought or the ones that sold at this particular second I'm trying this?

{while simple patterns work is probably because the vast number of retail traders are referring to them, so the transaction size that can make the pattern work is not as strong ie not that high probability}

Lost lost lost

Shouldn't the simple pattern work since the majority refer to them? Why it's not working?

The vast majority of retail traders don't even make 5% if the market apparently

Ok I didn't get you there I'll try read again. I need coffee
  • #317
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:27pm Jan 18, 2022 1:27pm
Quoting TonyTepeli
Clarification Points (Point that every consistent trader knows I mean these who are profitable and consistent) -There is no such thing called random market ( market move in swings) what differentiates winners from losers??? •Trading with the trend •Trading With Price Action Using reliable chart patterns and candlestick •Trading using Support and resistance levels. patterns. •Trading in larger timeframes •Making your winners larger than your losing trades •Waiting patiently for the right trade setups and not chasing trades hey...this stuffs become...

Blah blah blah what you said there is nothing new, you just copied and pasted from your course didn't you?
  • #318
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:34pm Jan 18, 2022 1:34pm
Quoting beastwork
{quote} like many conversations, semantics get in the way of moving the debate forward. when you say herd activity i'm thinking news has come out and now a currency is in high demand from everyone. PRiCE climbs higher. call it herd mentality, call supply and demand. call it whatever you want. the fact is that enough institutions have decided it's smart to buy that currency therefore price goes up. yes? again, don't worry about semantics. {quote} agree that 90%+ of moves in forex are driven by large institutions for whatever reason. they do not look...

I'm not here to asking to be saved. Getting that point of the way.

You say you agree that 90%+ of moves in forex are driven by large institutions for whatever reason. they do not look for chart patterns.

Then what percentage is these institutions with savvy treasury departments?
  • #319
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:41pm Jan 18, 2022 1:41pm
Well, trading is an irrational activity, it is an art form. That's why the 'education' does not work. It is for the right half of the brain, not for the left. You are working on some magic EA - I know what will happen in a year - you will still be working on EA, maybe the same one or maybe on a different one. That is a road to nowhere, unless your goal is to just keep working on EAs, of course. Then you will succeed.
  • #320
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:42pm Jan 18, 2022 1:42pm
you're asking the wrong questions. it's pointless to speculate on such things, and i'm really not here to argue. institutions are involved in forex for different reasons than retail investors.

institutions use whatever market analysis they choose "including" current and historical price. when analyzing ANY kind of data historical trend analysis is the ALWAYS the first step. only once you make sense of historicals can you begin to conduct predictive analysis. i'm not sure why you're stuck on this. i'm not sure you really grasp the historicals.
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