Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 3012 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #60,221
  • Jan 17, 2022 5:18am Jan 17, 2022 5:18am
Quoting Lawnman
{quote} Moving slow and a Holiday here in the states today (Martin Luther King Day). I'll be closing up in a couple hours.

you are probably wise doing that.
I still reckon we will have movement though.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,222
  • Jan 17, 2022 6:49am Jan 17, 2022 6:49am
Quoting billytt
{quote} you are probably wise doing that. I still reckon we will have movement though.
Looks like you got the movement! Unfortunately, I wasn't on the train.
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Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #60,223
  • Jan 17, 2022 6:58am Jan 17, 2022 6:58am
Quoting Lawnman
{quote} Looks like you got the movement! Unfortunately, I wasn't on the train. {image}
correct lol.....
the bad thing was..... i did go long off a high break, i even had the inside bar break the mother bar from Friday . but that is sorted.
i trusted the drop, or it could of been vice versa.
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edit. 1 = mother bar of the 4 hour inside bars.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,224
  • Jan 17, 2022 10:09am Jan 17, 2022 10:09am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hello, and welcome. I use 70 range as an area to focus on. It is not a calculation. I could easily use a 60 range. I use what is called Frequency Distribution Stats. With trades. 70 range has nothing to do with it. Lol. Example, if daily range over 5 days is 100..110..80..90..60.. FD stats will show that every day made 60 pips or more. So if your trigger range bar is 40. You can enter a trade knowing you have good odds to make 20 profit. But I would make better odds of taking 10. 5 days stats is not enough. This is an example. Once we have...

quote, so far it has moved 53 lol, we still have hope,lol. plus its a holiday in USA, i thought it was just an ordinary day.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,225
  • Jan 17, 2022 10:23am Jan 17, 2022 10:23am
Quoting billytt
{quote} quote, so far it has moved 53 lol, we still have hope,lol. plus its a holiday in USA, i thought it was just an ordinary day.
Hope and patience!
  • #60,226
  • Jan 17, 2022 10:33am Jan 17, 2022 10:33am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Hope and patience!
my last post, i was getting at this lol
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i normally would of said 70, but i dropped it to 60, never thought about the holiday, but 60 would still be no problem.

i stopped trading for the day age and ages ago.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,227
  • Jan 17, 2022 3:53pm Jan 17, 2022 3:53pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} quote, so far it has moved 53 lol, we still have hope,lol. plus its a holiday in USA, i thought it was just an ordinary day.
Still 53 here Looks like a calm day. My play on the 1H 08:00 bar would have still worked out for the -15/+15 Pips. Unfortunately I didn't have the time to trade this morning or even look at the chart.
  • #60,228
  • Jan 18, 2022 12:38am Jan 18, 2022 12:38am
t 06-35.
cable chart copied a few minutes ago.
i have already placed my 2 black line imaginary 70 range on the highest high,,lowest low
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at this moment in time, it looks like i will be trading off the 04-00 4 hour bar.
time now 06-38

edit, i meant to say, that 1st red candle is the 00-00 4 hour candle,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,229
  • Jan 18, 2022 12:41am Jan 18, 2022 12:41am
Quoting billytt
{quote} my last post, i was getting at this lol {image} i normally would of said 70, but i dropped it to 60, never thought about the holiday, but 60 would still be no problem. i stopped trading for the day age and ages ago.

the range yesterday did end on 53, look what happened with the next bar,,,, up then drop.

when i say there is tomorrow, this is what i am getting at. lol
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,230
  • Jan 18, 2022 2:35am Jan 18, 2022 2:35am
Quoting billytt
{quote} the range yesterday did end on 53, look what happened with the next bar,,,, up then drop. when i say there is tomorrow, this is what i am getting at. lol Trade well all.
I can see it now, fact is that range has to be made at some point in time. I'm rubbish at back testing but have collected enough stats to form a plan.
It's interesting to me because I traded very well pre covid trading back into daily ranges on EU so it's refreshing to be on the other side... and breakouts are way more interesting!

I'll start looking at red news days and the stats on that but I think I already know the results...

Trade well it's going to be a sunny day today
  • #60,231
  • Jan 18, 2022 2:49am Jan 18, 2022 2:49am
Worth making a mental note..

"With U.K. inflation heading for a 30-year high of 6%, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a hike on Feb. 3. However, the BOE has wrong footed investors before, most recently late last year."
  • #60,232
  • Edited 4:26am Jan 18, 2022 4:12am | Edited 4:26am
My break would have been good for +13 so far. Looks like -15/+15 once again is going to work out but let's wait.

Very slow movement again today. No holiday and I got a range of +40 so far. I remember when I started trading the BillyBar in 2020 we already had 70-80 Pips range made at this time of the day.

Probably everyone has shifted their money into the crypto space, that's where things at least are moving.

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Edit. +15 now made and the daily range extended to 42 Pips..

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  • #60,233
  • Jan 18, 2022 4:54am Jan 18, 2022 4:54am
t 10-54 i am here,but fixing cable trade. lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,234
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:40am Jan 18, 2022 5:40am
Quoting billytt
t 10-54 i am here, but fixing cable trade. lol
Good luck! It looks like to me that price is likely to travel further down for today but who knows. NY is about to open in 2 hours and this is often good for even a complete reversal of any movement that happened earlier in the day. Regarding to my broker we now have established a range of 51 Pips.

Sadly these days where price is breaking at one line and then keeps going at least for some min. amount of x is more like rare than the regular case. We all know my trouble with that by now. I still have no idea how to really handle this but accept probably nobody has a real clue either and can help me with that.

I therefor decided to not hedge/counter my orders anymore, placing a fixed stop loss order for every entry and somehow trying to work with a better risk/reward.

So I am now operating with a fixed 1:1 R/R at least where the win rate looks to be at least a little better than a coin flip, so >50%. I still haven't done any longer term backtest and collected some more data over it. For the last month it came out at a win rate of >65% resulted into +7% net profit. Remember, trading both sides of the break, not just the first. Right now I will be interested in what January will going to look like doing this simple plan that I build so far.

I believe it's a little improvement instead of having risked $30/Pip at the BillyBar while hedging a failed entry at -30 Pips away while trying to take profit at +5 Pips not having any real plan then of how to come out of such mess. I mean I even did that at $100/Pip on some days. Just a crazy gamble and luckily I haven't blown my account and even trippled it. Still a 5k i started with turned into 15k won't change my life at all. I could have actually done that in a much faster way simply placing some sport bets and my "edge" on that probably would have been even better lol.

I suppose your fixing part like you describe it is more like an instinct based scalping instead of following some clear rule based recovery plan that you know in advance of what you gonna do next if your first entry for the day would be lost/fail.

Anyway. I have to leave for today. Wish everyone good luck for today.

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  • #60,235
  • Jan 18, 2022 6:01am Jan 18, 2022 6:01am
I actually know what i am doing.
I've been doing this for a long time.

Just lately the markets have been acting differently to some degree.
With Cable, we are not having those easy big range to play with, but we have enough range to trade off.

If it moves up we long, if it drops we short, we just need the trigger.
We will always have movement , even a 70 range is more than enough.

We need belief and the need not to think.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,236
  • Jan 18, 2022 6:24am Jan 18, 2022 6:24am
Quoting billytt
I actually know what i am doing. I've been doing this for a long time. Just lately the markets have been acting differently to some degree. With Cable, we are not having those easy big range to play with, but we have enough range to trade off. If it moves up we long, if it drops we short, we just need the trigger. We will always have movement , even a 70 range is more than enough. We need belief and the need not to think.
70 range reached...incredibile ;-)

your work here since years is really an enrichment and has given me even more orientation, thank you for your indomitable and persistent way of teaching.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #60,237
  • Edited 7:54am Jan 18, 2022 7:40am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting billytt
I actually know what i am doing. I've been doing this for a long time. Just lately the markets have been acting differently to some degree. With Cable, we are not having those easy big range to play with, but we have enough range to trade off. If it moves up we long, if it drops we short, we just need the trigger. We will always have movement , even a 70 range is more than enough. We need belief and the need not to think.
And Bingo! Target achieved

new nickname = BingoBilly
  • #60,238
  • Jan 18, 2022 8:20am Jan 18, 2022 8:20am
Quoting billytt
I actually know what i am doing. I've been doing this for a long time. Just lately the markets have been acting differently to some degree. With Cable, we are not having those easy big range to play with, but we have enough range to trade off. If it moves up we long, if it drops we short, we just need the trigger. We will always have movement , even a 70 range is more than enough. We need belief and the need not to think.
Markets change. In my understanding if you want to trade a single currency pair for a living you need a robust trading plan that works in all kind of potential situations all the time and not just periodically while something is moving smooth as expected.

A potential min. range of price movement is great to know but still isn't going to make you any money over the long run when you don't have a plan of how many times you will execute an order for any given day and how much percentage of risk of your account's balance that represents, in the hope to end up at x % after a total series of x orders placed having executed such plan over x period of time.

Say you have entered wrong at 15 Pips SL on your first order placed, you are down -15 Pips, say you entered twice wrong at -15 Pips you are down -30 Pips. That is reality you can bank as a fixed loss to your account or hedge/counter and don't accept it, it doesn't change the fact.

So what you can do then? You can either stop trading for the day and end at a -30 Pips which you have lost over the two entries placed or you can keep on trading and enter x more time at x more risk for the day. I hope this makes sense.

Maybe you or anyone else could help how I could perhaps improve my little plan I got so far. I thought of applying some kind of trailing stop or similar. So maybe it would be better not to use a fixed take profit target and instead trying to get out as much as profit you can on days like today where it then would keep on moving in the trade entry's favored direction. Not sure how I would then still secure profits for say 4 out of 5 days where price would at least retrace once against me, even if then keep going my way. Using a fixed -15 Pips trailing stop once I am +30 otherwise but then risk getting stopped out at -15 after it only went +29...

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  • #60,239
  • Jan 18, 2022 8:21am Jan 18, 2022 8:21am
t 14-17
Cable chart just copied.

First red bar is the 00-00 4 hour bar, the R on chart is the 04-00 4 hour bar range.

i have adjusted the imaginary 70 range black line , so both high and low are almost parallel.
about 80 range has been made, i was out of it ages ago, i did have a long go bad but the drop took care of it plus profit.
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Trade well all. lets do it again tomorrow.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #60,240
  • Jan 18, 2022 8:22am Jan 18, 2022 8:22am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} And Bingo! Target achieved new nickname = BingoBilly
Nice one bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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