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Rearden's Journal

  • #721
  • Dec 22, 2021 5:30pm Dec 22, 2021 5:30pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} You've been adding quite a few things and mentioning things in your analysis, but I am not sure they are serving you yet. Just stick with the basic chart and basic questions. Open of week... long had lowest risk, bias short. Don't match, so where do I want to be short from? Maybe the moving average or maybe the top of the range or come back tomorrow. Yesterday... short bias, long has lowest absolute risk, but neither great. Doesn't match. Anywhere that is interesting to try short? How about that area where it held yesterday. Low risk try....
Yes. Thank you G. Sometimes, I tend to look at more things than the basic rules of exercise trying to make my analysis and trade perfect. I think that is because I try to progress faster and as a result I miss to notice basic trades which comply with the rules of the exercise.

For this week, didn't rush to enter on 20th and I saw the low risk entry on 21 Dec from 1.1300 on the retest of 20th high. But somehow I was waiting for a PA candle to enter. I don't know why.

I think, the two real improvements that I have to make is to slow down and also try not to be perfect.

Thanks again.
  • #722
  • Dec 22, 2021 5:50pm Dec 22, 2021 5:50pm
23 Dec 2021 short bias down move

The price is still in a down move and a short bias week. The MA is going up. The price is at the top of the channel. But still 50+ pips away from the white line. The last candle before the the close reacted at the yesterday high and pulled a little. As per the rules, its short bias and down move and price is above the MA. I have to enter immediate. Since the MA is going up, I will see if it fails to break the yesterday high and then short from there if it doesn't, targeting the 1305-10 area for a quick 20 pips.
  • #723
  • Dec 22, 2021 6:33pm Dec 22, 2021 6:33pm
Quoting Rearden
23 Dec 2021 short bias down move The price is still in a down move and a short bias week. The MA is going up. The price is at the top of the channel. But still 50+ pips away from the white line. The last candle before the the close reacted at the yesterday high and pulled a little. As per the rules, its short bias and down move and price is above the MA. I have to enter immediate. Since the MA is going up, I will see if it fails to break the yesterday high and then short from there if it doesn't, targeting the 1305-10 area for a quick 20 pips.
You aren't in the first months of the exercise, so you don't have to enter immediate. That's the lesson of those early months, taking those is supposed to build the sense of waiting for something better. Look for the sign of failure or wait for the average of price to support what you want to do.
Be bullish on you.
  • #724
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:06pm Dec 23, 2021 6:06pm
24 Dec Short bias down move

I missed the entry at the top yesterday since I was away from the computer yesterday. The market went down to the MA but didn't hold below it and came back up. I felt bad that I missed it. The MA is moving up . The optimal entry for a short is near yesterday highs. I will see if there is a PA from the top for a short back to MA. Since I didn't take any trades this week, I will be very careful and not force a short to compensate for the missed opportunities. I will just leave the week as it is with no trades and come back back next week.
  • #725
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:08pm Dec 23, 2021 7:08pm
Quoting Rearden
24 Dec Short bias down move I missed the entry at the top yesterday since I was away from the computer yesterday. The market went down to the MA but didn't hold below it and came back up. I felt bad that I missed it. The MA is moving up . The optimal entry for a short is near yesterday highs. I will see if there is a PA from the top for a short back to MA. Since I didn't take any trades this week, I will be very careful and not force a short to compensate for the missed opportunities. I will just leave the week as it is with no trades and come back...
Take a break until the new year, you've earned it. You saw the trade, knew how to handle it, and that's half the battle.
Be bullish on you.
  • #726
  • Dec 25, 2021 7:09am Dec 25, 2021 7:09am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Take a break until the new year, you've earned it. You saw the trade, knew how to handle it, and that's half the battle.
Thank you G. I will take a week off and resume trading in the New Year.
  • #727
  • Edited 8:13pm Jan 2, 2022 8:01pm | Edited 8:13pm
03 Jan 2022 No Bias UP move

The price had held above my 1382 line last week. So now the price is in an up move in a No bias week. I was slightly late to the chart and placed a Long PO at the pivot and MA. The MA is going up.

Even though the price has held above the 1382 line, I dont think it has broken out of the range yet. So I am not sure if the price will drop down from where it is. Anyway if the price holds below the MA and breaks down further I will exit the trade and look for reentry when price is near the low of the Big range.
  • #728
  • Jan 3, 2022 4:43pm Jan 3, 2022 4:43pm
Quoting Rearden
03 Jan 2022 No Bias UP move The price had held above my 1382 line last week. So now the price is in an up move in a No bias week. I was slightly late to the chart and placed a Long PO at the pivot and MA. The MA is going up. Even though the price has held above the 1382 line, I dont think it has broken out of the range yet. So I am not sure if the price will drop down from where it is. Anyway if the price holds below the MA and breaks down further I will exit the trade and look for reentry when price is near the low of the Big range.
when I saw the market falling below the MA, I exit the trade for -37(pivot) and -17(MA) pips. The white line is at 1220. Since the Price is below the MA and pivot and also the price is at the Middle of the range. I will wait and see what action it gives today.
  • #729
  • Jan 4, 2022 5:47pm Jan 4, 2022 5:47pm
05 Jan 2022

Nothing much changed today. My white line was at 1382 and it closed just above that, but refused to go above the 1385. It dropped from there. Technically the market is in an up move and I will wait for a long opportunity from a low risk location.

For today, The MA is still down and I will wait for the price to capture the pivot or the MA before I place any long trade.
  • #730
  • Jan 5, 2022 5:31pm Jan 5, 2022 5:31pm
06 Jan 2022

No Bias UP move

Price recaptured the MA and also went above the 1.13 BRN. The MA is up. I went long with target at the swing high.
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  • #731
  • Jan 6, 2022 5:25pm Jan 6, 2022 5:25pm
07 Jan No bias up move

The market came down, went up and came down again. The MA is still up. I had placed a PO lower than the MA. But it was not triggered. Since the price came lower and is below the MA but still at the lower area of the mini range, I entered long.
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  • #732
  • Jan 9, 2022 6:32pm Jan 9, 2022 6:32pm
Weekly Summary

There were no surprises this week. My first two entries were on the upper half of the range. There were a number of opportunities from the previous week low area. My POs were not triggered. The trades ended my positive by the end of the week. But I exited the trades due to NFP.
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  • #733
  • Jan 9, 2022 6:49pm Jan 9, 2022 6:49pm
10 Jan 2022

No Bias week. UP move

The price is at the 1350 area around the upper half of the range like last week. The price may go up from here. But I will wait to see if it retrace to the pivot or MA before going up. Also, it gives better RR to the top of the range.

Seeing the bullish move, towards end of Friday, I am not sure if the price will retrace a lot to the downside. Anyway I will wait to see if the price comes down to give a favorable entry.
  • #734
  • Jan 10, 2022 5:01pm Jan 10, 2022 5:01pm
11 Jan No Bias UP move

I had placed 2 POs at the 1293 and 1286 yesterday, but then removed it seeing the bearish move. There is no logical reason for removing it. both were Entries from lowest risk locations. I could have removed the trades if it closed below the lows. Didnt do it.

I entered a trade when the price recaptured the MA. Placed another PO further down at 1306. I will close both these if it breaks lower and holds below the 1272 area
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  • #735
  • Jan 11, 2022 6:15pm Jan 11, 2022 6:15pm
12 Jan No Bias UP move

The price went up and I closed the trade at the swing high area which is also the weekly open area for 22 pips. The price is approaching the previous swing high area around 1.1382. I will see if the price retraces to the pivot and go up or retest the highs and fail and come down from the top of the range.
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  • #736
  • Jan 12, 2022 7:39am Jan 12, 2022 7:39am
Quoting Rearden
11 Jan No Bias UP move I had placed 2 POs at the 1293 and 1286 yesterday, but then removed it seeing the bearish move. There is no logical reason for removing it... {image}
Best post yet. Now you are on to something.
Be bullish on you.
  • #737
  • Jan 13, 2022 5:15pm Jan 13, 2022 5:15pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Best post yet. Now you are on to something.
Thank you G. I think, Now I can see the charts, but sometimes I still overthink and don't do the right thing.
  • #738
  • Jan 13, 2022 5:34pm Jan 13, 2022 5:34pm
14 Jan No bias up move

I didn't get time to post yesterday. But the price moved consistently with my assessment on the day before. It retraced to the Pivot/weekly open area, gave a double bottom and then went up. Yesterday, very less likelihood for a deep retracement given the momentum and breakout that happened before. I was not part of the breakout since I already had a positive trade for the week. I didn't feel bad because I am not in breakout and didn't feel I missed the move since that was a conscious decision. But I don't feel good that I removed the PO that I placed on Monday. I don't feel bad that I missed a big up move and I don't think I should have caught that if I didnt remove the PA etc....but I feel bad because I removed the PO for no reason after seeing the down move and long bearish candles.

For today, I will watch the market to see how the price closes for the week. The price has poked the high and came down but have opened below the pivot. The MA is still UP.
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  • #739
  • Jan 16, 2022 5:11pm Jan 16, 2022 5:11pm
Weekly summary 10 Jan to 14 Jan

The lesson for this week is summarised in post 738. I dont have anything more to add to this.
  • #740
  • Jan 16, 2022 5:23pm Jan 16, 2022 5:23pm
17 Jan No Bias down move

The price has broken out of the range last week and is going down to retest the area which it broke out from. On Friday, it broke down the white line and held below and is in a down move. Since the price broke out from the range to the upside, I am not sure if its going to go up after retesting the Friday low or the breakout area(1385 area) or if its going to go down since its in down move. The MA has turned to the down side. I will take entries only as per the rules and stick to the short side as long as the move is down. To reduce the risk, I will wait for the price to retrace to MA and also further up to the white line. Seeing the momentum on Friday, I am not sure if it will retrace that much before making the next down move. If it doesn't, I will wait to see what it does for today and then adjust my entries tommorow. I do not want to rush an entry today at this location. hence the retrace entries.
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