Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid? | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Forex Education 78 replies

forex education 24 replies

Education IRA (forex)? 2 replies

Just finished forex education, what should be my next path? 12 replies

Stocks vs Forex - Is everyone suited for forex? 18 replies

Attachments: Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?
Exit Attachments

Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #101
  • Jan 15, 2022 2:14am Jan 15, 2022 2:14am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Sure. Because it is impossible to earn >5% daily with the bullshit "strategy" he use. For example RickM can earn more than 5% for sure. But Profitfarmer never. It is just impossible not because of person but because of mathematics. If you are trading long-term you just can't open many trades and each trade last longer. So even if your winrate is 100% there will be no time to earn such a big percentage. Peter and Aussi are just scammers selling PDF to the newbies. Check how Aussi open 500+ lot size trades. Nothing to discuss, just scam.

Mathematics is lovely isn't? It can predict almost anything because numbers never! I mean never ever lie.

But they numbers can't predict stock market because it's irrational (random)

And before I get attacked again, no that's not my opinion...that math you know... can't predict... Stock market...you know? It's kinda like a fact... Yeah it sucks
  • #102
  • Jan 15, 2022 2:34am Jan 15, 2022 2:34am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} I don't understand, are you saying you exchanged USDs for Euro's with the market maker and now USD is going up in value you're now in profit of course since the market maker will have to buy back(if he decides to) those USDs of yours with higher price than what he sold them to you for. And yes he will be on the losing side. Well it's a risky business . Luckily for him most of you sell those USDs back to him with loss almost 98% of the time so their rewards greatly surpass...
i thank you for this information
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #103
  • Jan 15, 2022 2:38am Jan 15, 2022 2:38am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Sure. Because it is impossible to earn >5% daily with the bullshit "strategy" he use. For example RickM can earn more than 5% for sure. But Profitfarmer never. It is just impossible not because of person but because of mathematics. If you are trading long-term you just can't open many trades and each trade last longer. So even if your winrate is 100% there will be no time to earn such a big percentage. Peter and Aussi are just scammers selling PDF to the newbies. Check how Aussi open 500+ lot size trades. Nothing to discuss, just scam.
please show me the pdf you talk about your all talk, blubbering every time you do a trade because your broker is getting his bonus off you
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #104
  • Jan 15, 2022 2:48am Jan 15, 2022 2:48am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Mathematics is lovely isn't? It can predict almost anything because numbers never! I mean never ever lie. But they numbers can't predict stock market because it's irrational (random) And before I get attacked again, no that's not my opinion...that math you know... can't predict... Stock market...you know? It's kinda like a fact... Yeah it sucks
love it
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #105
  • Jan 15, 2022 3:03am Jan 15, 2022 3:03am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: popcorn-drama.gif Size: 163 KB
  • #106
  • Jan 15, 2022 3:14am Jan 15, 2022 3:14am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{image}
Be careful there ChubbyWookie... Popcorn and fats Not entirely a healthy snack
  • #107
  • Jan 15, 2022 4:24am Jan 15, 2022 4:24am
Quoting RickM
{quote} A EA won't help - the best minds in the world couldn't make them work either so they just did something else - and now almost never lose. Please don't waste your next five years building EA's unless you can find enough stupid traders to sell them to. Cheers
I thought you are EA trader...... Have you changed your strategy??
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #108
  • Jan 15, 2022 4:51am Jan 15, 2022 4:51am
It looks you are making things overly complicated. Market is NOT random. The following chart is daily Natural Gas futures chart. It religiously respects 50 and 200 EMA. How can this be random?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2022-01-15_19-44-05.png Size: 484 KB

If it's random, how the following guy could have made profit consistently for more than 5 years? This guy is ranked to Top in fundseeder.com (similar to myfxbook.com). This is verified performance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2022-01-15_19-41-34.png Size: 606 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2022-01-15_19-41-58.png Size: 255 KB

Most people fail because they play with Forex or stock indices. Read the following post from someone else:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2019-11-09_20-51-59.png Size: 352 KB

Try energy or grains futures, either outright or spread. You will find they are much easier. They are really driven by supply and demand.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #109
  • Jan 15, 2022 5:03am Jan 15, 2022 5:03am
Quoting captalTrader
Your 0.01 lot sell trade on EURUSD pair means there’s 0.01 units of USD taken off the market, so EURUSD quotes must be adjusted, so is GBPUSD, so is USDJPY, EURGBP and all other pairs! Your little trade on EURUSD will affect all other pairs! .
If you trade less than one lot (10,000 unit of currency), your counter party is always your broker.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #110
  • Jan 15, 2022 5:07am Jan 15, 2022 5:07am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} What I'm working on if you're interested doesn't use charts, not even a bit, instead I calculate every tick that comes and make probalistic decisions based on them and it's working fine and profitable. Can it be improved? Absolutely yes, it is why I came here to share the idea so that perhaps I'll find like minds that will help to develop it even more or even come up with a completely different idea altogether.
Hello captalTrader,

sorry for being a bit off-topic with this reaction. But I must admire that I like seeing someone at FF trying a different approach, instead of endless looking at historical price charts and looking for patterns.

You said that you could elaborate on your "probabilistic tick system" in different thread, if so, please do it and ignore this message, I'll reply there, so we do not spam it here.

Anyway, few years ago, I tried to use the tick data predict future price movements in FX. I used similar approach on cryptocurrency market back in 2018, however, instead of using tick data, I scraped the real volume traded, predictions were good for lower TFs, but this "edge" decreased quickly in time. So, I was thinking about the same on forex market, while using tick count as a proxy to volume. Knowing that, every tick is a result of limit order cancelation or that the respective limit order was paired with incoming market order. Further assuming (otherwise it would not make a sense) that order cancellation is a minor cause of a tick event (proved as a totally wrong assumption by Brogaard et al. (2019)). Nevertheless, I downloaded the tick data form Dukascopy and tried some basic directional classification of the ticks and run my models. It showed very promising results for predictions of 1-minute ahead candles, 5-minute ahead was too bad in most of the cases, which made it insignificant on this and higher timeframes. Due to the 1-minute ahead promising results, I continued my work and started scraping tick data from different brokerages (assuming they are connected to different liquidity providers data feeds). Some correlated, some did not. One of my findings (for someone who knows a lot about MT4 probably already a basic knowledge) was that MT4 cannot process many tick data. Thus, this will always make any real-time trading based on tick-count decisions impossible. And so, when I re-run the predictive models with the historical tick data obtained via MT4 -> only noise, no signal. At the chart below, you can see the tick count difference of historical tick data downloaded from Dukascopy (which had some signal in it) vs the real-time downloaded tick data from Dukascopy MT4 (which was just a noise in my models). The difference, at some times, it tremendous.

Based on above written, my question is, how do you get tick data? Did you somehow cope with this problem? Or does it not bother your strategy, if it does not, why?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 56 KB
  • #111
  • Edited 6:30am Jan 15, 2022 5:08am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Sure. Because it is impossible to earn >5% daily with the bullshit "strategy" he use. For example RickM can earn more than 5% for sure. But Profitfarmer never. It is just impossible not because of person but because of mathematics. If you are trading long-term you just can't open many trades and each trade last longer. So even if your winrate is 100% there will be no time to earn such a big percentage. Peter and Aussi are just scammers selling PDF to the newbies. Check how Aussi open 500+ lot size trades. Nothing to discuss, just scam.
The number of orders Aussi (455... ) comes from the ICMarkets demo account so you can afford it open 500+ lot size.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussi.jpg Size: 7 KB
  • #112
  • Jan 15, 2022 5:08am Jan 15, 2022 5:08am
Quoting heispark
it religiously respects 50 and 200 EMA. How can this be random?
Great example. 100% fit the topic question.

1. User joined 2011. 10+ years of "trading".
2. Still can't understand what moving averages are.
3. Still post same forex fairy tale about "respecting" the random line on the chart.

What you are all are talking about? One is making >5% daily, second can open 500+ lot size trades, third think that price respect moving average, fourth is completely sure that the RSI shows overbought, because it is written on the broker's website, the fifth is very strong in calculating how many billions of dollars are traded daily in forex...

Observer effect
  • #113
  • Jan 15, 2022 5:15am Jan 15, 2022 5:15am
Quoting heispark
It looks you are making things overly complicated. Market is NOT random. The following chart is daily Natural Gas futures chart. It religiously respects 50 and 200 EMA. How can this be random? {image} If it's random, how the following guy could have made profit consistently for more than 5 years? This guy is ranked to Top in fundseeder.com (similar to myfxbook.com). This is verified performance. {image}{image} Most people fail because they play with Forex or stock indices. Read the following post from someone else: {image} Try energy or grains futures,...
Our friend has a bit to learn, the sad part is I'm not sure he'll appreciate your information; and that's because of pride...he is going about his discourse like everyone is stupid . I'm not saying he has nothing to offer, but it does take a bit of maturity and actual technical understanding to see the value in different market paradigms.
  • #114
  • Edited 7:31am Jan 15, 2022 7:14am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Great example. 100% fit the topic question. 1. User joined 2011. 10+ years of "trading". 2. Still can't understand what moving averages are. 3. Still post same forex fairy tale about "respecting" the random line on the chart. What you are all are talking about? One is making >5% daily, second can open 500+ lot size trades, third think that price respect moving average, fourth is completely sure that the RSI shows overbought, because it is written on the broker's website, the fifth is very strong in calculating...
Why do you yourself use 'random line' then? Let me guess, you are a net loser and fake guru posting only hindsight charts. Where is your live TE? Anyone can post hindsight winning trades. Also, I've never seen any serious traders trade cryptos. That's for only gamblers.
Read how RJ post his live calls: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-by-realjumper
Then go back to your own thread and post several live calls just like RJ did. Oh, don't try typical excuses. If you can post live calls, then I will admit you are a REAL guru. If you do, I will do the same. Deal?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #115
  • Jan 15, 2022 7:46am Jan 15, 2022 7:46am
Quoting heispark
It looks you are making things overly complicated. Market is NOT random. The following chart is daily Natural Gas futures chart. It religiously respects 50 and 200 EMA. How can this be random? {image} If it's random, how the following guy could have made profit consistently for more than 5 years? This guy is ranked to Top in fundseeder.com (similar to myfxbook.com). This is verified performance. {image}{image} Most people fail because they play with Forex or stock indices. Read the following post from someone else: {image} Try energy or grains futures,...
I think CaptalTrader wasn't meaning commodity trading, but I do agree with you commodities are much more lucrative as they trend over time in quite a predictable fashon, particularly the Ags. Here in the UK we have Contracts For Difference (CFDs), which makes trading them much easier than Futures.
Forget the spot FX market and look at the Ags and other commodities like Oil and Natural Gas, and maybe Bonds
  • #116
  • Jan 15, 2022 7:48am Jan 15, 2022 7:48am
Quoting hazelj80
best answer Ive seen here about market randomness https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...13#post3390413
The only smart comment here.
Anything above the line is an uptrend, below the line is a downtrend.
  • #117
  • Jan 15, 2022 7:50am Jan 15, 2022 7:50am
Pay more attention to the fundamentals and be more discretionary with entries.
  • #118
  • Jan 15, 2022 7:59am Jan 15, 2022 7:59am
Quoting captalTrader
Forex Market is random. RANDOM Okay these are a facts you won’t find .
There was nothing random about the USD declining this week and breaking below an 8 week range. It was driven by news and data. Mechanical systems only work when the user knows which market conditions will provide that system with an edge.

Forex is not random when you understand the underlying fundamentals.
  • #119
  • Jan 15, 2022 8:07am Jan 15, 2022 8:07am
Quoting heispark
{quote} I thought you are EA trader...... Have you changed your strategy??
Hi Heispark

I still trade EA's but they don't provide me my main source of trading income. They are far too time consuming to build and test with less than 1% of them ever obtaining any decent long term profitability. Therefore in takes 10,000 hours of work testing EA's 24/7 just to find one EA that's even acceptable to trade.
Life is short, there are better ways to be profitable.

Honestly trading the New York open for a rwo hour period looking for trades in an NOT random spikes in a market designed to look random is far more profitable then any EA can ever be. Imagine a rubber band that can never break because its joined by a chain to its edge when its stretched far from its opposite edge. We will know when its limit is reached 99% of ocassions so a single large trade now (and there's nothing a big player can do to stop you) will destroy the profits of 100 trades made by a EA.

Liquidity is just a rubberband than thins out as its stretched - it can't break into the "thin liquidity zone" so therefore rejection of price is bankable and highly profitable.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #120
  • Jan 15, 2022 8:22am Jan 15, 2022 8:22am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Heispark I still trade EA's but they don't provide me my main source of trading income. They are far too time consuming to build and test with less than 1% of them ever obtaining any decent long term profitability. Therefore in takes 10,000 hours of work testing EA's 24/7 just to find one EA that's even acceptable to trade. Life is short, there are better ways to be profitable. Honestly trading the New York open for a rwo hour period looking for trades in an NOT random spikes in a market designed to look random is far more profitable...
Hi, Rick
Thank you for details. It's somewhat different what you've told about EA so far in TMS thread. You've developed EA strategy for such a long time and how come you suddenly change to orderflow trader? How can this work? By the way, many professionals in Elitetrader.com say orderflow is loser's toy. Be careful. Let me be honest. I remember you have posted a live TE only once long ago and it miserably failed as far as I know. I read your excuse about it so don't need to repeat this. After reading your changing strategy and business class ticket for New York bla bla stuff, now I am less confident if you are a real guru..... Anyway, who cares.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
1 trader viewing now