Going forward, this thread will be updated on a weekly basis
My bio:
3 Years in a row of profits
Cumulative: +457.71%
YTD: +87.46%
(Last Update 27th December)
https://www.etoro.com/people/smurftrading
My 4 pillars - Intraday Trading, Swing Trading, Value Investing & Crypto
You can see my journey via Youtube, where I live stream how I intraday trade US market on a daily basis.
https://www.youtube.com/c/SmurfTrading
I do multiple trades per month. I leverage on my ability to see charts in a different light.
27Dec'21 update
As mentioned previously https://etoro.tw/2ZhSOry ,
Halloween Effect = Strong Bull
Past track records have shown that end Oct to Dec period has seasonality bull effect on both BTC and the market $NSDQ100 $TSLA . As long as BTC & S&P500 price is above 200MA, this would apply.
Let's investigate past S&P Halloween Effect,
2020 (From 30Oct, Lasted till 26Jan) +19.71%
2019 (From 31Oct, Lasted till 24Jan) +10.63%
2018 (China-US trade war, S&P below 200MA, hence not applicable)
2017 (From 31Oct, Lasted till 29Jan) +12.00%
2016 (From 31Oct, Lasted till 26Jan) +8.60%
Bearing in mind that both crypto and equity markets have been going sideways since end Nov to mid Dec period, it is a sign of accumulation by the institutions and shaking off weak holders. Bull rally going into 2022 could be a more sustainable one to make up for the sideway movement.
2021 (From 1Nov to date 24Dec) +3.12% only.
2021 (From 1Nov, Lasted till ???) +??%
As patterns tend to repeat themselves due to the natural workings of society, I won't be surprised that going into end Jan, S&P will hit 5000. Note that even if S&P reached 5000, it is merely 8.8% gain for post Halloween Effect, which is still below the historical average.
And also, I'm aware that current context is different due to the high inflation rate, Omicron virus, impending tapering by the Feds and increased in interest rate in future. All these have already been taken into account in my analysis. However, in view of other factors https://etoro.tw/3pm1nMl , an impending crash is not a pressing concern at this pt of writing.
For my copiers, I will take profit for my SPX position along the way. Will add on when opportunities arise and hedge when crash is near.
10x Challenge
I have decided to break up the BTC Prize Pool into
1st - 70%
2nd - 20%
3rd - 10%
Currently $xxxx+. Starting in 4 hours time
Swing Trading Activity
Current open position:
SPX500 +10.51%
Recent closed positions:
CM - 2.74%
OTIS + 9.22%
OTIS + 5.33%
IBN - 8.82%
IBN -4.24%
T +0.08%
SPX500 +4.78%
SPX500 +4.99%
Value Investing Activity
Position remained unchanged, with majority of our investment in Tencent, Meta , 9988 and BABA, with weightage of 14.01%, 14.44%, 20.20% and 5.76% respectively.
Risk of Alibaba Delisting? https://etoro.tw/329Dmis
You might be asking me, why don't I diversify into more companies?
https://etoro.tw/3h580yb
For last detailed update about Alibaba, go to https://etoro.tw/31CMr3a
How long does it take for Alibaba's price to recover to its intrinsic value?
Honestly, no one knows. Could be 1month, 2months, or few years. Personally I give myself a 2 years holding horizon. Bearing in mind of its current >50% discounted share price value, 100% gain in 2 years is still a good 50% annual Return of Investment! Worst case scenario, even if it takes 4 years, it is still a decent 25% annual ROI, better than S&P average of returns of 9.2%.
Crypto Activity
As of date, $BTC is still holding the 60SMA. In addition, the GOAT TA support at 39585.55 is still holding its fort as a backup level to support.
The flash crash on 4th Dec'21 has effectively flushed out $5.4 billion in contracts. This is similar to 19th May'21 flushed. So what happened after 19th May'21 flushed? Bitcoin price rebound +132% in half a year.
In view of all the factors including both SmurfTrading's watchlist, fundamentals, technical and on-chain analysis, we have high assurance that we are still far from this cycle peak. Based on math and risk reward analysis, holding at this juncture still yield the highest EV in the long run.
In the event if factors were to change, I will make adjustment to this thesis and act accordingly for my copiers.
For a more detailed status checklist based on SmurfTrading's signs, refer to telegram for regularly updated link. This link could only be accessed via telegram group. (t.me/Smurftrading) Exclusive for my eToro and YouTube regulars only.
Why am I still holding onto Doge despite the big drawdown?
https://etoro.tw/382sdzv
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" - Warren Buffet
Same for eToro copying function. As I said, minimum copy period is 1 year to reap the reward. Drawdown is inevitable along this journey. For every upwave, market need to take a breath before another upwave. Be patient and you will be like my longest copier.
https://www.etoro.com/people/kjavier/portfolio
Hope all have a great Christmas season thus far.
My bio:
3 Years in a row of profits
Cumulative: +457.71%
YTD: +87.46%
(Last Update 27th December)
https://www.etoro.com/people/smurftrading
My 4 pillars - Intraday Trading, Swing Trading, Value Investing & Crypto
You can see my journey via Youtube, where I live stream how I intraday trade US market on a daily basis.
https://www.youtube.com/c/SmurfTrading
I do multiple trades per month. I leverage on my ability to see charts in a different light.
27Dec'21 update
As mentioned previously https://etoro.tw/2ZhSOry ,
Halloween Effect = Strong Bull
Past track records have shown that end Oct to Dec period has seasonality bull effect on both BTC and the market $NSDQ100 $TSLA . As long as BTC & S&P500 price is above 200MA, this would apply.
Let's investigate past S&P Halloween Effect,
2020 (From 30Oct, Lasted till 26Jan) +19.71%
2019 (From 31Oct, Lasted till 24Jan) +10.63%
2018 (China-US trade war, S&P below 200MA, hence not applicable)
2017 (From 31Oct, Lasted till 29Jan) +12.00%
2016 (From 31Oct, Lasted till 26Jan) +8.60%
Bearing in mind that both crypto and equity markets have been going sideways since end Nov to mid Dec period, it is a sign of accumulation by the institutions and shaking off weak holders. Bull rally going into 2022 could be a more sustainable one to make up for the sideway movement.
2021 (From 1Nov to date 24Dec) +3.12% only.
2021 (From 1Nov, Lasted till ???) +??%
As patterns tend to repeat themselves due to the natural workings of society, I won't be surprised that going into end Jan, S&P will hit 5000. Note that even if S&P reached 5000, it is merely 8.8% gain for post Halloween Effect, which is still below the historical average.
And also, I'm aware that current context is different due to the high inflation rate, Omicron virus, impending tapering by the Feds and increased in interest rate in future. All these have already been taken into account in my analysis. However, in view of other factors https://etoro.tw/3pm1nMl , an impending crash is not a pressing concern at this pt of writing.
For my copiers, I will take profit for my SPX position along the way. Will add on when opportunities arise and hedge when crash is near.
10x ChallengeI have decided to break up the BTC Prize Pool into
1st - 70%
2nd - 20%
3rd - 10%
Currently $xxxx+. Starting in 4 hours time
Inserted Video
Swing Trading Activity Current open position:
SPX500 +10.51%
Recent closed positions:
CM - 2.74%
OTIS + 9.22%
OTIS + 5.33%
IBN - 8.82%
IBN -4.24%
T +0.08%
SPX500 +4.78%
SPX500 +4.99%
Value Investing Activity Position remained unchanged, with majority of our investment in Tencent, Meta , 9988 and BABA, with weightage of 14.01%, 14.44%, 20.20% and 5.76% respectively.
Risk of Alibaba Delisting? https://etoro.tw/329Dmis
You might be asking me, why don't I diversify into more companies?
https://etoro.tw/3h580yb
For last detailed update about Alibaba, go to https://etoro.tw/31CMr3a
How long does it take for Alibaba's price to recover to its intrinsic value?
Honestly, no one knows. Could be 1month, 2months, or few years. Personally I give myself a 2 years holding horizon. Bearing in mind of its current >50% discounted share price value, 100% gain in 2 years is still a good 50% annual Return of Investment! Worst case scenario, even if it takes 4 years, it is still a decent 25% annual ROI, better than S&P average of returns of 9.2%.
Crypto Activity As of date, $BTC is still holding the 60SMA. In addition, the GOAT TA support at 39585.55 is still holding its fort as a backup level to support.
The flash crash on 4th Dec'21 has effectively flushed out $5.4 billion in contracts. This is similar to 19th May'21 flushed. So what happened after 19th May'21 flushed? Bitcoin price rebound +132% in half a year.
In view of all the factors including both SmurfTrading's watchlist, fundamentals, technical and on-chain analysis, we have high assurance that we are still far from this cycle peak. Based on math and risk reward analysis, holding at this juncture still yield the highest EV in the long run.
In the event if factors were to change, I will make adjustment to this thesis and act accordingly for my copiers.
For a more detailed status checklist based on SmurfTrading's signs, refer to telegram for regularly updated link. This link could only be accessed via telegram group. (t.me/Smurftrading) Exclusive for my eToro and YouTube regulars only.
Why am I still holding onto Doge despite the big drawdown?
https://etoro.tw/382sdzv
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" - Warren Buffet
Same for eToro copying function. As I said, minimum copy period is 1 year to reap the reward. Drawdown is inevitable along this journey. For every upwave, market need to take a breath before another upwave. Be patient and you will be like my longest copier.
https://www.etoro.com/people/kjavier/portfolio
Hope all have a great Christmas season thus far.