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Forex Education 78 replies

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Attachments: Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?
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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

Quoting Robinhood1
Markets have always been rigged. Cornering commodity traders was normal begining last century. The average guy did not have access to trading but now banks have made it possible as Technology comes into play. In the 80s Barclays bank had a round table with traders for each pair and ibm computers where on the go. Comunication between banks to wipe smart investors, big money. Singapur london NY etc. World has changed and a round table is not but AI that has information of each trader: positions, balances and leverage. The aim is to wipe small accounts...

Oh my God
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} You think Forex market makers are gods? Doing perfect business without risks? You actually believe there's riskless business????? And I'm the one with a flaw thinking? My goodness how many times do I have to say this... It's not my theory, it's facts!
Well go and make money fella, you are the man ! Unfortunately you went up against people that are making money in this business, some respected names came up here to try and help you with your thinking, But hey, I am not an expert and if you make it all work for you. I wish you well.

But your wife is right, you are arrogant.
read with interest your post and interpretations.
yes the Forex market is utilitarian which has a basic function of exchanging money from and to countries and for companies to pay for supplies and to profit from the goods and products imported or exported.
yes that market is very big and therefore can not be left for chance. can not be random. no business thrive on randomness.
if i remember correctly Mandelbrot had proven that chaos is not anything other than highly organized system, once understood, it will have fractals that govern the system.
what we see on the screen is not what happen in real life.
there are a lot of deals done off the exchanges and done for specific reasons.
we as retail traders we are not going to see them and we are not allowed to participate in them, these may show up in the imbalance seen on of your triangular theory, and that will not explain why that market moved at that time, without a trigger and better the move may coincide with a news event that appear trivial and the reaction to it is over blown. that is when the balancing happen, as it has to be zero sum game. that is when there is an opportunity for speculators.
yes the market is not made for speculators, but gives the opportunity for speculators to benefit as they provide risk mitigation to the other players.
the other assumption is that we as retail traders deal with the market as a whole.
some one commented that we are trading a simulation on our screens.
that is probably correct as most of trading firms are bucket shops. so they give you the illusion that they went into the market and bought or sold you contract (therefore no volume is shown, citing decentralized exchanges), when in reality they gave you the fill, probably at a better price (so you can feel good about yourself) as they see the other side of the market and they know that you are wrong so they take the commission and your stop loss.
if they are legitimate dealers they will take it to the market and fulfill the big boys needs and get the bigger commission.
Pareto principle 80/20 is in play. when 80 percent of player agrees on to something usually the 20% win.
I will be interested in hearing your theory and seeing your mathematics about how that three shell game is played.
sorry for lengthy reply.
sam
Quoting rogerha
{quote} You are not comparing apples with apples. If you could take a £1m position long on behalf of a client knowing you can see an £800k volume short to a £2m liquidity pool of long stops, and you had the power to make that happen, would you take the client trade ?
On behalf of a client? What em I? A broker?

I give up, you win, yes market makers are Gods, they have all the money in the world, infact they already have trillions, not disclosing it afraid of the IRS.

One day I dream of being in a risk free business like them too
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} On behalf of a client? What em I? A broker? I give up, you win, yes market makers are Gods, they have all the money in the world, infact they already have trillions, not disclosing it afraid of the IRS. One day I dream of being in a risk free business like them too
You'd need a different mentality fella
Quoting rogerha
{quote} Well go and make money fella, you are the man ! Unfortunately you went up against people that are making money in this business, some respected names came up here to try and help you with your thinking, But hey, I am not an expert and if you make it all work for you. I wish you well. But your wife is right, you are arrogant.
Respected where?

Thank you for the compliment

Cheers
I read your lengthy opinion of your observation and experiences, but am not sure where all that leads. Are you interested in making profits from trading or from selling EAs to others? Personally, after having studied the ideas and concepts of many others, most of whom profess to be experts, I have realized that one has to glean the best knowledge that these people offer and come up with a simple, logical, and repeatable methodology of ones own. When that has been accomplished, success comes from sticking to the methodology that works, and closing one's mind to further influence from others. When I have determined, in my practice account, that a certain repeated, mechanical activity brings in one profit after another, then I go to my live account and repeat the process. Anytime I lose, it is because I violated my rules or some dramatic announcement has been made such as covid, Brexit, etc. and I got caught with an open position over the weekend.

In summary. I don't monitor the news because the price has already baked it in by the time I receive it. I monitor charts alone and look for a definitively clear trend in D1. I confirm it in H4 and lower, and take all pullbacks against that established trend in M30. It is difficult to understand how a person can lose, doing this, unless one over trades or panics. I use no stop losses so the brokers can't hit them with a widening spread. I play big tickets for a few pips, such as 20 maximum. I don't let my trades ride over the weekend, even if I have to close them out at a loss. Again, once a method has proven consistently profitable, I don't want to hear the opinions of experts, Online Trading Academy, or any other self promoted guru. Keep it boringly simple my friends.
Quoting stelpm
I read your lengthy opinion of your observation and experiences, but am not sure where all that leads. Are you interested in making profits from trading or from selling EAs to others? Personally, after having studied the ideas and concepts of many others, most of whom profess to be experts, I have realized that one has to glean the best knowledge that these people offer and come up with a simple, logical, and repeatable methodology of ones own. When that has been accomplished, success comes from sticking to the methodology that works, and closing...
My lengthy opinion is being misunderstood and it's ok I've made peace with it. I should have deleted this thread by now but somehow I still have hope that someone will read it with an open mind and understand exactly what I'm trying to do.

I'm not offering a 'System' nor do I offer an EA, I'm not a Guru.

What I was trying to is, make people aware that everything they know and being taught about Forex MIGHT be misleading.

Why I say that? Because of the facts behind how the prices that plot those daily candlesticks move. I presented a fact on how they move. This is not my opinion or observations, it's FACTS! Prices move because of business transactions, not because of support levels.

And people didn't want to accept the possibility that they've been doing it wrong all this time. A little JUST MAYBE!

What I was expecting was questions like, hhuh so you say these charts are meaning less, spectucally useless for predicting future movements, so what you propose we do? Then we come up with possible solutions together.

I'm currently testing one, it's been 3 months now and it's profitable, I provided a link to it's performance results. Not even one person ask about that or even noticed that part I'm sure.

What I'm working on if you're interested doesn't use charts, not even a bit, instead I calculate every tick that comes and make probalistic decisions based on them and it's working fine and profitable.

Can it be improved? Absolutely yes, it is why I came here to share the idea so that perhaps I'll find like minds that will help to develop it even more or even come up with a completely different idea altogether.

But did I get?

'Respectable members' of this forum trying to convince me that the facts I presented are wrong. The right ones are those that have not been working for years!
All brokers have different tick amount. Where is reliable data?
Forex is business transactions [what you mention] - may be there's business habits?
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} I'm saying the market is random because it's impossible to control the buying and selling ... the random buying and selling.
there is no selling going on here. the real action is BUYING. both sides are BUYING.

GBPUSD. your account is in USD. you wanna press the SELL button? a "sell" trade is opened. in reality, you are buying USD, but the liquidity provider (LP) on the other side is buying GBP (the equivalent in USD at the current rate, as you only have USD in your account) from your USD balance/equity. Both parties are BUYING. one and only...

money is inventory here. you just happen to have more of one currency and less of the other or vice versa. the net difference in between is your current temporary profit or loss.

now, think of how you bought the USD (the sell button was pressed) in exchange of the GBP equivalent (in USD) bought by the LP (from you) on the other side? how this action does affect the price movement (including from inventory point of view)?

the players with the largest inventories will always command the direction of the price however they want... and this is NOT a random market with a random movements. this FULLY CONTROLLED MARKET with fully controlled movements. it just appears to be random to those who does not understand it...

by the way, the buy and sell buttons, on the chart, should be called BUY GBP and BUY USD instead (in my GBPUSD example)...

they are misleading us, making us thinking we are selling something when we are buying only and they are also buying only on the other side of the transactions we make.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
Where do I see remona
Quoting Ihlas
All brokers have different tick amount. Where is reliable data? Forex is business transactions [what you mention] - may be there's business habits?
The point is not accuracy of tick data. Nothing is accurate, one won't find accurate data anywhere.

One minute data is not accurate, infact far from accurate, But ticks data is more accurate that 1 minute data. Monthly data is made up by 1 minute data, nothing special about it either.

This makes one wonder... How did the idea that bigger timeframes are better than smaller timeframes come from?

All Big timeframes are made from smaller timeframes. This is a fact too not my opinion or observation

By business habits you mean it might be possible to predict when Apple Inc might want to exchange USDs for Euro's? By predicting that, one might be able to tell when USD price will fall since Apple sold so much USDs?

I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'll ask how exactly one would do that? Perhaps they work at one of the biggest liquidity providers and can see incoming orders from Apple?

If this was possible then why UBSs JP Morgan and the likes have losses? Why can't they predict business habits so that they'll know exactly when not to take USDs sell orders when USDs is about to dramatically fall? Or maybe they can do all this, they're indeed in risk free business, just that they pretend to lose money now and then, you know... Just to confuse the masses and the IRS
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} there is no selling going on here. the real action is BUYING. both sides are BUYING. GBPUSD. your account is in USD. you wanna press the SELL button? a "sell" trade is opened. in reality, you are buying USD, but the liquidity provider (LP) on the other side is buying GBP (the equivalent in USD at the current rate, as you only have USD in your account) from your USD balance/equity. Both parties are BUYING. one and only... money is inventory here. you just happen to have more of one currency and less of the other or vice versa. the net difference...

Controlled by who?

Okay let's move away from speculation for now, it's confusing people while it's really not that important here. I think we're trying to understand how the prices move right?

So if I have USDs and I want to exchange them for Euro's. What it's called when I give you my USDs and take your Euro's? Is it wrong to say I'm selling my USDs and buying your Euro's?

And isn't what the foreign exchange market is all about?
if you have 40 winning trades and the market maker goes the opposite of your trade he is the loser one would think
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} there is no selling going on here. the real action is BUYING. both sides are BUYING. GBPUSD. your account is in USD. you wanna press the SELL button? a "sell" trade is opened. in reality, you are buying USD, but the liquidity provider (LP) on the other side is buying GBP (the equivalent in USD at the current rate, as you only have USD in your account) from your USD balance/equity. Both parties are BUYING. one and only... money is inventory here. you just happen to have more of one currency and less of the other or vice versa. the net difference...

By inventory you mean the amount of currencies they have with them ready to exchange to customers?

As the amount of fish they want gone?

I like simple. I hate complicated words and jargon, argh I don't want to sound like I'm a 'guru'
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} there is no selling going on here. the real action is BUYING. both sides are BUYING. GBPUSD. your account is in USD. you wanna press the SELL button? a "sell" trade is opened. in reality, you are buying USD, but the liquidity provider (LP) on the other side is buying GBP (the equivalent in USD at the current rate, as you only have USD in your account) from your USD balance/equity. Both parties are BUYING. one and only... money is inventory here. you just happen to have more of one currency and less of the other or vice versa. the net difference...

To the memories. Every trader must read, understand, read again and hammer this information into their heads.

Regarding to the topic questions.
1. Yes forex education is misleading
2. Yes most of traders are stupid

For proofs check this thread (or any, in fact). We have only 1 (one!) post with really indispensable information over 92 posted. So we can say that more than 99% are stupid.
All other posts are copy-paste of well-known forex bullshit repeated million times.
Observer effect
Quoting Aussi
if you have 40 winning trades and the market maker goes the opposite of your trade he is the loser one would think


I don't understand, are you saying you exchanged USDs for Euro's with the market maker and now USD is going up in value you're now in profit of course since the market maker will have to buy back(if he decides to) those USDs of yours with higher price than what he sold them to you for. And yes he will be on the losing side. Well it's a risky business . Luckily for him most of you sell those USDs back to him with loss almost 98% of the time so their rewards greatly surpass the risk

And another thing, market makers don't do leverage so they can hold on to their Euro's for a longer time in their inventories until there demand for them at a better price.
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} To the memories. Every trader must read, understand, read again and hammer this information into their heads. Regarding to the topic questions. 1. Yes forex education is misleading 2. Yes most of traders are stupid For proofs check this thread (or any, in fact). We have only 1 (one!) post with really indispensable information over 92 posted. So we can say that more than 99% are stupid. All other posts are copy-paste of well-known forex bullshit repeated million times.
You were laughing at @PeterCaleb when he said he can make make 5% a day, now you make more than that daily. So at least be open to new ideas. Sometimes you can find something valuable among BS, and no need to say if somebody is stupid or smart. Yet I have found also something important in volume too, I was rejecting volume back then. Good luck
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} You were laughing at @PeterCaleb when he said he can make make 5% a day, now you make more than that daily. So at least be open to new ideas. Sometimes you can find something valuable among BS, and no need to say if somebody is stupid or smart. Yet I have found also something important in volume too, I was rejecting volume back then. Good luck
Sure. Because it is impossible to earn >5% daily with the bullshit "strategy" he use. For example RickM can earn more than 5% for sure. But Profitfarmer never. It is just impossible not because of person but because of mathematics. If you are trading long-term you just can't open many trades and each trade last longer. So even if your winrate is 100% there will be no time to earn such a big percentage. Peter and Aussi are just scammers selling PDF to the newbies. Check how Aussi open 500+ lot size trades. Nothing to discuss, just scam.
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} To the memories. Every trader must read, understand, read again and hammer this information into their heads. Regarding to the topic questions. 1. Yes forex education is misleading 2. Yes most of traders are stupid For proofs check this thread (or any, in fact). We have only 1 (one!) post with really indispensable information over 92 posted. So we can say that more than 99% are stupid. All other posts are copy-paste of well-known forex bullshit repeated million times.

Exactly what is the key points made here that every trader should take away?

That liquidity providers exchange your USD for Pounds? No 1 knew that? Wow. Or that Liquidity providers always have almost all major currencies ready to exchange in their stock (inventory)? Really no one knew this?

I would like to add something too though on how prices move. The price you see your platform is the last price at which two parties exchanged that particular pair OK? If no one agree to exchange that pair at 1.30648 then it's price will stay quoted at 1.30648 until an exchange take place, the exchange might be now 2.34556 and that will be the new quoted price.

No one control this, but the market
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