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AUD/USD

  • #107,301
  • Edited 9:28am Dec 15, 2021 9:15am | Edited 9:28am
It will go back up....

.......this is totally a market state that is best left well alone......price is just going to where it is finding liquidity (mostly in the form of Stop Loss orders), without running so far as to meet actual entry orders that are aiming in the right direction.

.......but I aint gonna leave it alone......I think I can now see what is happening here, but amn't going to jinx myself by posting it.......(in my experience, trades I publicly post have a waaaay lower hit rate....must be something to do with 'ego' entering the frame and tampering with judgement).
  • #107,302
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:37am Dec 15, 2021 9:37am
Quoting MatDerKater
It will go back up.... .......this is totally a market state that is best left well alone......price is just going to where it is finding liquidity (mostly in the form of Stop Loss orders), without running so far as to meet actual entry orders that are aiming in the right direction. .......but I aint gonna leave it alone......I think I can now see what is happening here, but amn't going to jinx myself by posting it.......(in my experience, trades I publicly post have a waaaay lower hit rate....must be something to do with 'ego' entering the frame...
i'm long here.

posting - because before posting we look for too many conformations, that's the death of a good trade.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,303
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:41am Dec 15, 2021 9:41am
nervous long here. i'd expect it to give me better signals. we'll see.

edit - ok looking better now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,304
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:49am Dec 15, 2021 9:49am
Quoting Mcbeaners
nervous long here. i'd expect it to give me better signals. we'll see. edit - ok looking better now. {image}
i'm only looking for h1 20ema or maybe h4 20ema. that should bring us to fomc.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,305
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:51am Dec 15, 2021 9:51am
Simple Dow Theory Reversal.

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Series of lower lows n lower highs broken, with divergence on 30 minute chart.

Now we have higher low, and higher high, speculating on further higher high....Stop Loss has to allow room for a bit of dickfuckery, after all, it is a 'reversal'.

.....and if this falls flat on it's face, I shall review my log and see how many times I have stated that I should never trade on FOMC day.
  • #107,306
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:00am Dec 15, 2021 10:00am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} i'm only looking for h1 20ema or maybe h4 20ema. that should bring us to fomc.
a lot of volume just to do a retrace. hmmm. downside looking more interesting at this moment.

i closed on the h1 20ema.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,307
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:19am Dec 15, 2021 10:19am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} a lot of volume just to do a retrace. hmmm. downside looking more interesting at this moment. i closed on the h1 20ema.
cd is strongly suggesting they sold that retrace. so i will looking for shorts after fomc. i don't expect too much more now and reckon this will go sideways until the news.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,308
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:25am Dec 15, 2021 10:25am
cd porn for your enjoyment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,309
  • Dec 15, 2021 11:21am Dec 15, 2021 11:21am
Quoting Mcbeaners
cd porn for your enjoyment. {image}
How do you use it? Just as a standard oscillator looking for divergences and TLs?

What is your read on that?
  • #107,310
  • Dec 15, 2021 11:40am Dec 15, 2021 11:40am
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} How do you use it? Just as a standard oscillator looking for divergences and TLs? What is your read on that?
in this case its basically divergence but it more nuanced.

search for parcurve on YT. he's the man.

i use a number of his ta
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,311
  • Edited 12:44pm Dec 15, 2021 11:56am | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} in this case its basically divergence but it more nuanced. search for parcurve on YT. he's the man. i use a number of his ta
Can't find him, you got a link?

Edit: Found him. ParaCurve Trading.
  • #107,312
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:50pm Dec 15, 2021 12:50pm
still goling to short this, i'm looking just over today's high as an entry.

this doesn't preclude it dipping first which would be sclap buy.

we'll see.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,313
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:54pm Dec 15, 2021 12:54pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
still goling to short this, i'm looking just over today's high as an entry. this doesn't preclude it dipping first which would be sclap buy. we'll see.
i'm gonna short at previous day high
  • #107,314
  • Dec 15, 2021 1:03pm Dec 15, 2021 1:03pm
Quoting luizng
{quote} i'm gonna short at previous day high
lol looks like a straight short right now.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,315
  • Dec 15, 2021 1:12pm Dec 15, 2021 1:12pm
Quoting luizng
{quote} i'm gonna short at previous day high
closed my long.

btw i said today's high because of what i see on the 2021 vp.

i might get bck in

edit did
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,316
  • Dec 15, 2021 1:21pm Dec 15, 2021 1:21pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} closed my long. btw i said today's high because of what i see on the 2021 vp. i might get bck in edit did
wish i didn't....

bouncing off the today's poc. let's see where she goes....
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,317
  • Dec 15, 2021 1:50pm Dec 15, 2021 1:50pm
my execution is poor really is. anyway, i'll be shorting this above today's high. imo. or whatever the price in the next hour or less.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,318
  • Dec 15, 2021 1:52pm Dec 15, 2021 1:52pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} wish i didn't.... bouncing off the today's poc. let's see where she goes....
Seems like you were quite 'reactive' to the FOMC announcement.

I didn't even watch, thankfully or I would have probably been tempted to jump out my trade when it came back to scratch, after it having run so close to my SL....now I see AUDUSD is right back where it was before the announcement, as are all the other major pairs....just a big excuse to flush a bunch of positions out, is all it is.

US equities look like they are going to explore towards the upside, so I would expect the risk on currencies will follow.
  • #107,319
  • Dec 15, 2021 2:02pm Dec 15, 2021 2:02pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Seems like you were quite 'reactive' to the FOMC announcement. I didn't even watch, thankfully or I would have probably been tempted to jump out my trade when it came back to scratch, after it having run so close to my SL....now I see AUDUSD is right back where it was before the announcement, as are all the other major pairs....just a big excuse to flush a bunch of positions out, is all it is. US equities look like they are going to explore towards the upside, so I would expect the risk on currencies will follow.
my plan was ok, bought the dip, cash out but got suckered into poor quality trades after.

i'm still long and will wait for the high to be broken. then it will be a good'n to short.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,320
  • Dec 15, 2021 2:17pm Dec 15, 2021 2:17pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} my plan was ok, bought the dip, cash out but got suckered into poor quality trades after. i'm still long and will wait for the high to be broken. then it will be a good'n to short.
Perhaps the AUDUSD short is still on, but if someone were to make the case that the Dollar Index was going to pull back to 95 and change, I certainly wouldn't argue with them....

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.....heh.....the sound of banked profits as I type.....(makes up for the numbskulled b.s. AUDUSD trade from earlier).
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