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  • #143,341
  • Dec 15, 2021 8:45am Dec 15, 2021 8:45am
I am liking very much the varied views!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,342
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:13am Dec 15, 2021 9:13am
We are now in the heart of the volatility war , which I suspect will get much bigger still! Really great scalping opportunities from 15m cdls ends, especially when wicks aren't bigger than body!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,343
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:21am Dec 15, 2021 9:21am
Reposting pre-fomc H1 s/r levels... Good luck to all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1_Status.png Size: 36 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #143,344
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:59am Dec 15, 2021 9:59am
Wondering whether the current sell off is a precursor to a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact style reaction after FOMC. Could they be pushing it lower to get better buy positions?
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #143,345
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:03am Dec 15, 2021 10:03am
Quoting MrGuy
Wondering whether the current sell off is a precursor to a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact style reaction after FOMC. Could they be pushing it lower to get better buy positions?
Yes to 1.1180, then above 1.13
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,346
  • Edited 10:38am Dec 15, 2021 10:05am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting MrGuy
Wondering whether the current sell off is a precursor to a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact style reaction after FOMC. Could they be pushing it lower to get better buy positions?
Don't overcomplicate things. Look at the daily and 4 hr chart. See those bottom pins all the way to below 1.1200, they will most likely all be taken out before any buy shows up anywhere. They can as well finish off all the buyers today and Tomorrow ECB they knock out the sellers. I really don't care for now. Just focus on price wiping off those bottom pins. That's liquidity. That's stop losses. That's money!
  • #143,347
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:21am Dec 15, 2021 10:21am
Quoting MrGuy
Wondering whether the current sell off is a precursor to a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact style reaction after FOMC. Could they be pushing it lower to get better buy positions?
Possible. My two cents: after such long ranging, not much orchestration is needed, especially not when there are plenty of buyers in a downtrend.

I am not assuming that you are using "they" in the following fashion, but you make me think of a popular belief : I myself, doubt any orchestration or manipulation happens ever at all actually, . I better entertain the idea that the main movers simply have, overall, the better tools and traders, that altogether simply give the illusion. Probably wrong there though, as it is of course much more complicated than that considering all the different types of players. But that is another matter..

Back to your question. Also, It seems to me that price right now is just subject to its usual heightened volatility both ways. But also that, on the shorter-term, price is more and more likely to be at the precipice of the longer-term simply following its course. Some wait for the big news to pass, to jump back in for more serious positions, as ridiculous that may sound. Like me !

Crazy MTakos forever doubting views of course! Mmmm enjoyed the question MrGuy!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,348
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:25am Dec 15, 2021 10:25am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Possible. My two cents: after such long ranging, not much orchestration is needed, especially not when there are plenty of buyers in a downtrend. I am not assuming that you are using "they" in the following fashion, but you make me think of a popular belief : I myself, doubt any orchestration or manipulation happens ever at all actually, . I better entertain the idea that the main movers simply have, overall, the better tools and traders, that altogether simply give the illusion. Probably wrong there though, as it is of course much more...
Apols, should've made my comment a bit clearer. I wasn't trying to imply manipulation on a conspiratorial level, more that main market movers will be eyeing up certain entry/exit levels. Natural, regular, "smart money" trading stuff.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #143,349
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:39am Dec 15, 2021 10:39am
Quoting MrGuy
{quote} Apols, should've made my comment a bit clearer. I wasn't trying to imply manipulation on a conspiratorial level, more that main market movers will be eyeing up certain entry/exit levels. Natural, regular, "smart money" trading stuff.
No, not at all, your post was perfect, and the proof is my careful response about that subject in my reply. Thanks again for the question. I rarely think about this anymore, but it is needed. Contrary to appearances, the bulk of my trading is very rigorous and mechanical and I often completely forget about them main movers; and sometimes I feel like Tin Man, or a robot, yet always yearning for a heart, and in doing so, having one.

Scalping for a last 3-4 pips. Then eating and waiting for the news...
Attached Image
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,350
  • Dec 15, 2021 10:48am Dec 15, 2021 10:48am
Quoting mtako
{quote} No, not at all, your post was perfect, and the proof is my careful response about that subject in my reply. Thanks again for the question. I rarely think about this anymore, but it is needed. Contrary to appearances, the bulk of my trading is very rigorous and mechanical and I often completely forget about them main movers; and sometimes I feel like Tin Man, or a robot, yet always yearning for a heart, and in doing so, having one. Scalping for a last 3-4 pips. Then eating and waiting for the news... {image}
Always appreciate your ever respectful and thought provoking posts.
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #143,351
  • Dec 15, 2021 11:34am Dec 15, 2021 11:34am
The biggest 15m drop in volatility of the last 10 hours just ended 17 minutes ago. Sometimes that is the calm that indicates the last mini storm before the big thunder. Just as often, a stillness enough to kill all immediate aspirations.

On another note. I use 1W, especially when it can have an impact on my swings. It rarely happens, but it has for the better part of this quarter.
I use blank charts continuously, with and without lines. Here just a glimpse of one of my 1W.
To note, for example :
To be very very patient pays off, at the right time, and sometimes it is the opposite ! Developing approaches that exploits both worlds pays off even more.
To not be mislead by a single week or two.
And to not forget that, like in July and August or October, ranging periods in trend can be longer still.
But, the November fast 300+ drop gave it an extra push of momentum, which could accelerate things if it isn't an impulsive failed attempt before the start of a return to the Monthly middle of a tightening range, which for me is around .15-.17
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1W.png Size: 29 KB
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,352
  • Dec 15, 2021 11:45am Dec 15, 2021 11:45am
Quoting ForexGoose
I expect it to drop under 1.12 after a hawkish FOMC, where I will sell more when the daily closes below 1.118. If it goes up, I will look to sell rallies into 1.14.
Everybody expects a hawkish FED… It is clear that tapering will be accelerated to end in March, but more relevant are the number of hikes the FED expects for next year. They don‘t want to kill the economy so why should they move from 2 to 3 hikes now, before observing if inflation declines like expected due to strong basis effects over spring? They know this could kill the economy. They don‘t need to hurry on rate hikes now, only QE ending is urgend to get more flexibility regarding rates. Imho this would not be as hawkish as priced.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,353
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:02pm Dec 15, 2021 12:02pm
Bottom TGT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR4227.png Size: 43 KB
  • #143,354
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:06pm Dec 15, 2021 12:06pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Everybody expects a hawkish FED… It is clear that tapering will be accelerated to end in March, but more relevant are the number of hikes the FED expects for next year. They don‘t want to kill the economy so why should they move from 2 to 3 hikes now, before observing if inflation declines like expected due to strong basis effects over spring? They know this could kill the economy. They don‘t need to hurry on rate hikes now, only QE ending is urgend to get more flexibility regarding rates. Imho this would not be as hawkish as priced.
Your submission is spot on and logical, FED is likely to disappoint dollar bull, which will lead to sporadic move in USD pairs against dollar
  • #143,355
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:27pm Dec 15, 2021 12:27pm
Just placed my buy order @ 1.12579 (dont try this at home)
Drawdown is more important than Account Size !
  • #143,356
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:41pm Dec 15, 2021 12:41pm
Quoting procrude
Just placed my buy order @ 1.12579 (dont try this at home)
Please tell me your stop loss; we are coming for it. Lol... just pulling your legs.
  • #143,357
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:46pm Dec 15, 2021 12:46pm
Quoting procrude
Just placed my buy order @ 1.12579 (dont try this at home)
I second that. I guess this is not your ordinary intraday trade . I suspect more of a swing you have been concocting? Nice to read you.

Quoting mtako
Finally selling time again ! At last, 1270s which have been the fiercest support for awhile, could become resistance. Happy trading everyone.
And done... a relaxing couple 3-9 pips a trade day. Closing remaining intraday shorts here, without a care in the world if it goes 100000pips in their direction afterwards.

Let's see now what follies they have in store for us !

Ata you reminded me of this fool a long time ago I remember getting hammered with this everywhere I went when it came out, on a trip in the Baltics.

Crazyness to come, I pronounce your mascot(bloody 3billion views)! :
Inserted Video

Trade safe all, not crazy like this frog!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,358
  • Dec 15, 2021 12:58pm Dec 15, 2021 12:58pm
Two words:

DOT PLOT
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #143,359
  • Dec 15, 2021 1:07pm Dec 15, 2021 1:07pm
Quoting Austyno
For me this is how I think it will play out As long as 1.12560 continues to support, they will take it to 1.13260 then dump it to 1.12333 and then rise to 1.13733. Expect some craziness today and prepare accordingly
Both orders activated, bulls over to you. See y'all at 1.13733
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #143,360
  • Dec 15, 2021 1:09pm Dec 15, 2021 1:09pm
Quoting Austyno
{quote} Both orders activated, bulls over to you. See y'all at 1.13733
that's the level im looking to sell at
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