AUD/USD | Page 5364 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #107,261
  • Dec 13, 2021 8:59am Dec 13, 2021 8:59am
Bull View

I see another rejection @7000 will move north side. At least we would see 7360 to continue weekly downtrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 65 KB


OR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 61 KB
  • #107,262
  • Dec 13, 2021 3:20pm Dec 13, 2021 3:20pm
1h 20ema cross with 4h 20ema. either we get a bounce or we get a retrace to the 1h 20ema. win/win

i think we'll get one more push up. then it'll be a short imo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-12-13_16-17-28.png Size: 131 KB
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,263
  • Dec 13, 2021 4:18pm Dec 13, 2021 4:18pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
1h 20ema cross with 4h 20ema. either we get a bounce or we get a retrace to the 1h 20ema. win/win i think we'll get one more push up. then it'll be a short imo. {image}
Ok, so just a cross of the 20 and 80 ema....

....do you use any other filters? such as using the MAs as dynamic S/R levels, or looking at the direction that the higher timeframe MAs are moving in (in this case, horizontally)?

Fwiw, the big M shape which confirmed a technical breakdown of sorts, is wedged in between two Supply and Demand Zones, with the lower being right where I entered my AUDUSD long (full disclosure, I thought I would be smart and jump out, and jump back in again on dip....but so far have missed my re-entry by a ants ball hair....but I guess that is for me to worry about). And the other S&D zone is sitting directly above the M structure.....

.....taking a short on a confirmatory rejection of the upper S&D level would be trade that might fit my way of viewing the market...if I trusted the M.....which I don't....at least not yet.
  • #107,264
  • Dec 13, 2021 4:47pm Dec 13, 2021 4:47pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Ok, so just a cross of the 20 and 80 ema.... ....do you use any other filters? such as using the MAs as dynamic S/R levels, or looking at the direction that the higher timeframe MAs are moving in (in this case, horizontally)? Fwiw, the big M shape which confirmed a technical breakdown of sorts, is wedged in between two Supply and Demand Zones, with the lower being right where I entered my AUDUSD long (full disclosure, I thought I would be smart and jump out, and jump back in again on dip....but so far have missed my re-entry by a ants ball...
in the context of a trend these cross' are bankable. like i said either it bounces and you bank big or it crosses and retrace and you still bank. i use ma's, cummulative delta, price translation/structure, trendlines and fibs for retracement and price projection. vp as well.i have posted many charts on the eu thread, probably best you see what i post as i do so daily.

i also like M and W's - see if you can spot the W in the chart below. bullish of course.

i'm looking for .71436
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-12-13_17-46-00.png Size: 195 KB
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,265
  • Dec 13, 2021 5:01pm Dec 13, 2021 5:01pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} in the context of a trend these cross' are bankable. like i said either it bounces and you bank big or it crosses and retrace and you still bank. i use ma's, cummulative delta, price translation/structure, trendlines and fibs for retracement and price projection. vp as well.i have posted many charts on the eu thread, probably best you see what i post as i do so daily. i also like M and W's - see if you can spot the W in the chart below. bullish of course. i'm looking for .71436 {image}
Iceberg dead ahead captain!
grist for the mill
  • #107,266
  • Dec 13, 2021 5:09pm Dec 13, 2021 5:09pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} in the context of a trend these cross' are bankable. like i said either it bounces and you bank big or it crosses and retrace and you still bank. i use ma's, cummulative delta, price translation/structure, trendlines and fibs for retracement and price projection. vp as well.i have posted many charts on the eu thread, probably best you see what i post as i do so daily. i also like M and W's - see if you can spot the W in the chart below. bullish of course. i'm looking for .71436 {image}
Yeah, the big purple line at 0.71260 is ur bull W. It is where my re-entry is sitting unfilled by Pepperstone, which didn't quite do what Oanda done, with my SL way way down in it's original position, well beneath this afternoon's pivot low. I entered at 0.7117, but because I give myself a fair bit of headroom on these trades, the rr wasn't that great when I jumped out (I find having lower rr, but avoiding getting dickfucked on a trade that then goes whizzing off in my direction, is just psychologically more manageable, although not necessarily rational)....but since I 'knew' it was going to reverse, and I 'knew' your purple line area would be retested, I just done it on impulse.

I wouldn't enter a fresh trade at that level though. Not on a reversal. It might hold, but it might not. Indeed, there is every chance that this afternoon's pivot low is RINSED, and then the market jack knifes back up range (hence my extended SL policy), and of course there is always the chance that my range long idea falls completely flat, and your short starts working immediately.

I have never traded MA crosses, but have in the past tried using EMAs as dynamic support and resistance levels, but decided it just wasn't for me.......I still have emas on my charts, just to 'paint an image' of the market and which way I should be thinking, and do take signals using 5 ema bands (created by calculating 5ema on candle highs and candles lows) in certain situations, such as this afternoons AUDUSD long.

I find equilibrium zones is where it's at. A trade will generally work, providing the trader correctly guesses an area where a market is likely to turn (I almost never trade break-outs of zones or structure)....and the best way to figure out where price might react, is by looking at levels that it has responded to previously.
  • #107,267
  • Dec 13, 2021 5:11pm Dec 13, 2021 5:11pm
Quoting JackJones
{quote} Iceberg dead ahead captain!
omg - help me see it!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,268
  • Dec 13, 2021 5:18pm Dec 13, 2021 5:18pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Yeah, the big purple line at 0.71260 is ur bull W. It is where my re-entry is sitting unfilled by Pepperstone, which didn't quite do what Oanda done, with my SL way way down in it's original position, well beneath this afternoon's pivot low. I entered at 0.7117, but because I give myself a fair bit of headroom on these trades, the rr wasn't that great when I jumped out (I find having lower rr, but avoiding getting dickfucked on a trade that then goes whizzing off in my direction, is just psychologically more manageable, although not necessarily...
purple line is a trendline but yes there are W in there. the one i was thinking didn't complete (on the right). but i see an bullish M forming on the 15m chart.

target price adjusted.

as ever we'll see.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-12-13_18-12-38.png Size: 203 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-12-13_18-15-10.png Size: 209 KB
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,269
  • Dec 13, 2021 5:28pm Dec 13, 2021 5:28pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} purple line is a trendline but yes there are W in there. the one i was thinking didn't complete (on the right). but i see an bullish M forming on the 15m chart. target price adjusted. as ever we'll see. {image} {image}
Well, where that ever so slightly sloped TL is, I would draw a zone. ~71285 - 71256.

Price has reacted off that level 4 times so far in the past few hours trading session. It is a significant level. HOWEVER, because of the higher time frame picture and what is more broadly happening, I wouldn't place too much emphasis or importance on it holding on the next retest. I am rebuying at that level, only to reload my long position from much further down the price action, which I let go off, a decent bit above....simply because there is a reasonable chance that it will hold, and then continue up towards top of range without looking back.
  • #107,270
  • Dec 13, 2021 5:37pm Dec 13, 2021 5:37pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Well, where that ever so slightly sloped TL is, I would draw a zone. ~71285 - 71256. Price has reacted off that level 4 times so far in the past few hours trading session. It is a significant level. HOWEVER, because of the higher time frame picture and what is more broadly happening, I wouldn't place too much emphasis or importance on it holding on the next retest. I am rebuying at that level, only to reload my long position from much further down the price action, which I let go off, a decent bit above....simply because there is a reasonable...
any more then 3 hits to a r/s TL is probably going through. i would bet on it.

do post a chart as i'm not able to guess your TL.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,271
  • Dec 13, 2021 6:02pm Dec 13, 2021 6:02pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} omg - help me see it!!!!!!!!!!!!!
it's called DECEMBER all the vol goes away so anyone trying to offload or buy swings the market bg time, they do not respect the magic lines.. usually in Jan everyone comes back and we get a big move
grist for the mill
  • #107,272
  • Dec 13, 2021 6:05pm Dec 13, 2021 6:05pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} any more then 3 hits to a r/s TL is probably going through. i would bet on it. do post a chart as i'm not able to guess your TL.
Here: https://photos.google.com/share/AF1Q...ZHdTRQdzhlV1J3

The above shows what I am using, and explains my thinking.

I don't use TLs, but use S&D zones.

I use Heiken Ashi candles to define these zones.

The pink-purple boxes are Weekly S&D zones. You can see that price has come right down into one of these Weekly S&D zones, so if this just keeps on bouncing, it shouldn't come as a surprise.
The Blue Boxes are Daily
Yellow are 4Hr,
Green is one Hour.
  • #107,273
  • Dec 13, 2021 6:43pm Dec 13, 2021 6:43pm
Quoting JackJones
{quote} it's called DECEMBER all the vol goes away so anyone trying to offload or buy swings the market bg time, they do not respect the magic lines.. usually in Jan everyone comes back and we get a big move
we gots some heavy news tomorrow, so i do expect some action.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,274
  • Dec 13, 2021 7:41pm Dec 13, 2021 7:41pm
didn't reverse my trade quick enough. but target reached and banked some.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-12-13_20-41-02.png Size: 191 KB
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,275
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:33am Dec 14, 2021 12:33am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} we gots some heavy news tomorrow, so i do expect some action.
the action will be chop , i am expecting it to range big time for a couple weeks , looking forward to it, mid jan expecting a new trend, get ready for that

my bias continues to be down,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 130 KB

Attached Image

extreme positioning saw a 200 pip dump last time
grist for the mill
  • #107,276
  • Dec 14, 2021 9:01am Dec 14, 2021 9:01am
Double top ??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 66 KB
  • #107,277
  • Dec 14, 2021 11:11am Dec 14, 2021 11:11am
Support at 6970 is strong
Breaking this will could more downtrend till new support 6470.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 57 KB

Crossing EMA100xEMA50 Indicates trend reversal
Currently market is thinking where can she could go. Breaking bellow the 6970 will lead to 6400 era which has 49% and visiting 7400 will 51%.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 50 KB

NB Those 49, 51 is just some indication and not from analytical/forecast. Market is always 50/50.
  • #107,278
  • Dec 14, 2021 11:32am Dec 14, 2021 11:32am
Quoting Mcbeaners
didn't reverse my trade quick enough. but target reached and banked some. {image}
Nice trade.

Did you hit on the break of that TL?

Did you place your stop just above the 'flag' formation?

If both of the above are true, which would make for a very textbook style of trade (aka, usually won't work), do you have other filters at work to help cherry pick the good ones, from the stinkers......I realise the prevaling winds of the market were blowing North to South, but that is on higher timeframes?
  • #107,279
  • Dec 14, 2021 1:33pm Dec 14, 2021 1:33pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Nice trade. Did you hit on the break of that TL? Did you place your stop just above the 'flag' formation? If both of the above are true, which would make for a very textbook style of trade (aka, usually won't work), do you have other filters at work to help cherry pick the good ones, from the stinkers......I realise the prevaling winds of the market were blowing North to South, but that is on higher timeframes?
no it was the cross (thin red over thick red). tp was the fib. its in line with the 1h cross that happened yesterday so trend is down. just pick your moments.

i entered late so i put my stops just above the high as the cross was made. but generally i try to enter the trade on those highs or lows dedending on trend.

there are signature price moves made prior to the cross. this will tell you now its going to play ouy in most cases. just have to watch and see. this will tellyou if there is going to be a decent move or not. the h1 & h4 are the most powerful generally.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #107,280
  • Dec 14, 2021 1:34pm Dec 14, 2021 1:34pm
you can see the failed cross on the 15 here. though this happened during the combined session so the results are going to be mixed. i'm short again and looking for .70804
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2021-12-14_14-25-35.png Size: 248 KB
In tea leaves we trust!
261 traders viewing now