EURUSD only | Page 7162 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

Trading EURUSD only 43,756 replies

Eurusd-5m Trading Only 110 replies

LIVE Trades Only : EURUSD & GBPUSD 123 replies

Strategy behind 1 EA (buy only) and 1 EA (sell only) 2 replies

Script to change EA to long only/ short only at a price level? 1 reply

Attachments: EURUSD only
Exit Attachments

EURUSD only

  • #143,221
  • Dec 11, 2021 2:07am Dec 11, 2021 2:07am
H1 Status Update

For the next week I see trouble at two areas inside some sort of a flattish rising-wedge.. And inside this channel weird things happening with some sort of an expanding triangle(!) thingy..

Long story short: On the top edge of this mess I have an area around 1.1380 where we could expect strong resistance.. and on the bottom edge I have 1.1265 as clean support that bears need to break if they want continuation..

I hope it helps.. Keep enjoying your weekends folks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1_Status.png Size: 35 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #143,222
  • Edited Dec 12, 2021 4:04am Dec 11, 2021 4:05am | Edited Dec 12, 2021 4:04am
This last week [49th of 2021] I got the feeling Xanax is losing its efficacy (fourth week of my trial). I lost my cool a couple of times even while on up to 2mg/day (started with 0.75/day and 4 is the max advised dose). A day that would have been +100% turned out +29% and Friday on the last rise late in the day I panicked and hedged my incremental short right at the top , managed to disentangle myself moderately elegantly closing the week flat, at +27%. Reduced efficacy over time is a known effect of the drug. I'm afraid, like all the literature says, long term usage is not sustainable The brain adapts, requiring increasing doses with nasty and dangerous side effects. The last week-end (no meds.) I was unusually tense, possibly early manifestation of withdrawal symptoms.

Last week my account went in the green for first time in 28 weeks. The eight weeks geometric average factor is 1.16. The account grew by 16% per week compounded; a pretty good streak. If kept up for 48 weeks, the account would grow by a factor of 1240 All my account trending stats. actually were already improving before the Xanax.

Edit. The 1.16 is the eighth root of the product of the last eight weekly changes in equity expressed as factors (-57% would be 0.43 and +108% would be 2.08) So, that's the geometric mean of the weekly factors, not the mean compounding weekly change in equity. I erroneously assumed they would be the same.

Edit 2. I solved the discrepancy above. The geometric average of the last 'n' weekly changes in equity, expressed as factors, is the same as the geometric mean calculated by taking the 'n' th root of the quotient of the last 'n+1' equity values (last/first). So, 1.16 (or +16%) is the average compounding weekly change in equity of my last nine weeks of trading and is the same value I get with the GA of the last eight factor changes.

The above results, apart even from the very small sample period, apply to me and my way of trading. I will continue the Xanax experiment at least one more week to get more reliable indications.

----------------

Next week I expect EURUSD to head down again towards the lows before breaking upward above 1.14 in a long term up trend.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #143,223
  • Dec 11, 2021 9:11am Dec 11, 2021 9:11am
Next week, I am looking to sell rallies from either 1.135 or 1.138/9. I think that after the FOMC, there could be a surprise for the bulls, which they won’t like.

reasons:

1. ECB won’t reduce stimulus anytime soon since the pandemic is still affecting the economy
2. ECB won’t raise rates anytime soon
3. FED is cutting stimulus fast
4. FED will raise rates fast
5. FED recognized that inflation is not transitionary
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #143,224
  • Dec 12, 2021 3:12am Dec 12, 2021 3:12am
Quoting ForexGoose
Next week, I am looking to sell rallies from either 1.135 or 1.138/9. I think that after the FOMC, there could be a surprise for the bulls, which they won’t like. reasons: 1. ECB won’t reduce stimulus anytime soon since the pandemic is still affecting the economy 2. ECB won’t raise rates anytime soon 3. FED is cutting stimulus fast 4. FED will raise rates fast 5. FED recognized that inflation is not transitionary
This might already be priced. The wind of change rather blows in the opposite direction. The ECBs stance is about to change, making the euro a more risky funding currency for carry trades. And generally inflation will peak soon (Dec or Jan) due to base effects, also in the US. So let‘s see which sueprises central bank meetings have to offer next week.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,225
  • Dec 12, 2021 3:41am Dec 12, 2021 3:41am
Quoting ForexGoose
3. FED is cutting stimulus fast 4. FED will raise rates fast 5. FED recognized that inflation is not transitionary
Are you sure about all this and why?
  • #143,226
  • Dec 12, 2021 8:39am Dec 12, 2021 8:39am
Hey guys, it's been a while since I dropped an analysis here. So here is what I think. Happy Trading
Inserted Video
  • #143,227
  • Dec 12, 2021 9:05am Dec 12, 2021 9:05am
Quoting momo3HC
{quote} Are you sure about all this and why?
highest inflation in 40 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/fed-...re-coming.html
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #143,228
  • Dec 12, 2021 10:16am Dec 12, 2021 10:16am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} This might already be priced. The wind of change rather blows in the opposite direction. The ECBs stance is about to change, making the euro a more risky funding currency for carry trades. And generally inflation will peak soon (Dec or Jan) due to base effects, also in the US. So let‘s see which sueprises central bank meetings have to offer next week.
I doubt that it is all priced-in.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-hikes-2021-12

  1. Investors should sell the rally in stocks ahead of upcoming Fed interest rate hikes, Bank of America said in a Friday note.
  2. BofA's Michael Hartnett expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.50% in March 2022, ahead of consensus.
  3. The bank also highlighted the striking similarity between the unwind in tech during the 2000 dot-com bubble and today.

don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #143,229
  • Dec 12, 2021 10:25am Dec 12, 2021 10:25am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} I doubt that it is all priced-in. https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-hikes-2021-12 Investors should sell the rally in stocks ahead of upcoming Fed interest rate hikes, Bank of America said in a Friday note. BofA's Michael Hartnett expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.50% in March 2022, ahead of consensus. The bank also highlighted the striking similarity between the unwind in tech during the 2000 dot-com bubble and today.
I do think much of what you highlighted has been priced in, some time back now. Not a whole lot's changed since the idea of easing tapering was first hinted at. Also worth considering this: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/massive-...tion-1.1694390
A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will
  • #143,230
  • Dec 12, 2021 11:07am Dec 12, 2021 11:07am
Quoting MrGuy
{quote} I do think much of what you highlighted has been priced in, some time back now. Not a whole lot's changed since the idea of easing tapering was first hinted at. Also worth considering this: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/massive-...tion-1.1694390
If a lot was priced-in already, then why didn't EUR/USD rally?
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #143,231
  • Dec 12, 2021 3:13pm Dec 12, 2021 3:13pm
Quoting MrGuy
{quote} I do think much of what you highlighted has been priced in, some time back now. Not a whole lot's changed since the idea of easing tapering was first hinted at. Also worth considering this: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/massive-...tion-1.1694390
For sure he is trapped, also because government itself took on massive amounts of debt. Same for the ECB though with Italy...
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,232
  • Dec 12, 2021 3:14pm Dec 12, 2021 3:14pm
For me the picture is still bullish. The green support is strong as it has been confirmed by two falling wedges. Also please note that at this point we have to cross the red resistance before we can touch white again. If bulls push it above red, then white will probably be conquered too, after a retest of red.

It feels kind of wrong to go bullish into the FED, but in the end policy divergence might have seen its peak as outlined above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 103 KB
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,233
  • Dec 12, 2021 3:22pm Dec 12, 2021 3:22pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} highest inflation in 40 years https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/fed-...re-coming.html
Sure but buy the rumour sell the news, the peak is close. The next number will be much lower as energy will enter significantly negative and after January YoY inflation will most certainly decline due to technical base effects...
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,234
  • Dec 12, 2021 9:20pm Dec 12, 2021 9:20pm
Morning everyone, coffee's and croissants on the house for EurUsd-Only members !

Selling more on the mid-range, attacking the starting of the lowwwww, for 10pips. sell stop 12933!

Wishing to every fellow trader an incredibly happy, healthy, prosperous week!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,235
  • Dec 12, 2021 9:36pm Dec 12, 2021 9:36pm
Quoting mtako
Sold here 13165 !
This little fellow got stopped out at BE . Worst part is, if I had been awake, my Sl would have been adjusted to 1323 thanks to a new 5min counter-trend setup, and would have made it.
Kidding aside. This happens so often, for good and bad, that it cannot affect me anymore. "Next !" is the only reflex that I have.

Quoting mtako
... still going, to the end ! sell stop1306, back in 1H mid-high range, and where my previous short would be moved at BE
Will be moved at BE when/if price hits 12956 again, where I will sell again.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,236
  • Dec 13, 2021 1:38am Dec 13, 2021 1:38am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (808).png Size: 440 KB
  • #143,237
  • Dec 13, 2021 1:39am Dec 13, 2021 1:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (807).png Size: 481 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (809).png Size: 415 KB
  • #143,238
  • Dec 13, 2021 1:39am Dec 13, 2021 1:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (810).png Size: 434 KB
  • #143,239
  • Dec 13, 2021 1:41am Dec 13, 2021 1:41am
Quoting mtako
Morning everyone, coffee's and croissants on the house for EurUsd-Only members ! Selling more on the mid-range, attacking the starting of the lowwwww, for 10pips. sell stop 12933! Wishing to every fellow trader an incredibly happy, healthy, prosperous week!
Minor update for my 12933 : SL now set at BE, TP was readjusted to 1279 for 14pips.


Quoting mtako
In my previous posts, I have focused on bulls threats. When mainly selling, my main focus is on buying, and vice versa. This helps me stay objective. I will try to balance that a little more in my shares. This fresh 8H pullback setup(only to be confirmed under 1275) is starting to have an effect on my long-term shorts planning, and will even more so if we get a decisive 1275 to 1260 BO before any new 1350s reach. Has this pullback reached it's limits? Or will it, like the last one(October), reach even higher ground?...

I shared this above quoted setup and corresponding chart last week. Pullback traders we might have a good one on its knees at last!
Level of confirmation for this 8H setup has risen today to 1292, which was just broken through.
The confirmation of this setup is a first strong indication for me that the tension has reached a new level, and that the end is near.
Possible very important move coming soon :
The second 1259(previously1263) is reached, my above 1290 positions will all be at BE again, at last.
Not because the down momentum might be strong and steady enough for them to make it to their targets(most<1230), although that could be the case.
Noooo, it is because, under this prolonged indecision + tension, chances are just as great for price to again go against the trend, and in a bigger fashion, before continuation, if continuation prevails.

So..
Best scenario. If momentum maintains its strength here, price pursues its course downward with not enough bull volatility to take out most of my shorts.
Second best scenario. If it doesn't have the necessary momentum, my above 1290 remaining shorts get stopped out, and I re-enter them all one after the other, after a >1350s very fiery and colorful adventure.
Leaving aside the very important worse case scenarios for now, keeping this post lighter than usual...

Hope I made sense and it was interesting to someone.
Now let's see what this pair has in store for us this week!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (5889).png Size: 30 KB
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,240
  • Dec 13, 2021 2:03am Dec 13, 2021 2:03am
Good morning, hope you're great. I hope 1.1285 can be a good support for today.
133 traders viewing now