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  • #681
  • Dec 1, 2021 2:10am Dec 1, 2021 2:10am
Quoting Rearden
01 Dec 2021 Short Bias UP move The price went down to the white line area during the news. It also held below the MA. The direction of MA was UP and also it was coming up from the white line. So I didn't take the #3b trade due to the distance to the swing highs at the 1380. I was looking for a deeper retrace to the area it broke down (1340ish area) during news. So today morning When the price failed to go higher, I took a #3b trade. I placed the target at the white line. it May go lower, but since I am in the exercise I will stick to the area from...
i feel that there are a lot of uncertainity in this trade given that the price is in UP move, the direction of MA..... The Price has room to move to the upside etc. Also, even though the price went down and closed below the MA, it quickly came back up and closed above the MA. I exited the trade for -2 pips and decided to wait for the price to show some clues for my next trade.
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  • #682
  • Dec 1, 2021 5:37pm Dec 1, 2021 5:37pm
02 Dec Short Bias up move

The price opened below the MA and pivot in an up move. The MA is still going up. The price is above the weekly open and also the 1.1300 BRN. The price is near the lower part of the mini range it created yesterday. I took a long since its an up move. Since its short bias, I kept the target at where the price came down from yesterday.
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  • #683
  • Dec 2, 2021 9:00am Dec 2, 2021 9:00am
Quoting Rearden
02 Dec Short Bias up move The price opened below the MA and pivot in an up move. The MA is still going up. The price is above the weekly open and also the 1.1300 BRN. The price is near the lower part of the mini range it created yesterday. I took a long since its an up move. Since its short bias, I kept the target at where the price came down from yesterday. {image}
Closed the trade for +24 pips
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  • #684
  • Dec 2, 2021 11:28am Dec 2, 2021 11:28am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Closed the trade for +24 pips {image}
Awesome, good basic trade. Positive week.
Be bullish on you.
  • #685
  • Dec 2, 2021 5:39pm Dec 2, 2021 5:39pm
3 Dec short bias Up move

I will watch the market today but will not trade since its Friday. Also there is NFP and other major news releases
  • #686
  • Dec 5, 2021 4:50pm Dec 5, 2021 4:50pm
Weekly Summary 29 Nov to 03 Dec

The learnings of Monday and Tuesday is summarized in the above posts. With regards to the first #3b trade that I took, the price has already closed and held above the MA. And also the direction of the MA was UP. The good thing that I did was to exit with a very small loss of 2 pips.

I feel that if I want to take a short, it would be better to wait for the MA to turn down and price to reach the edges before I take a #1 short. This will help top reduce the risk. The area where I exited my profitable trade on Thursday was a confluence area where the MA was down, Near the edges and also near the Round number. In short this week was good in learning. I was able to identify long trades in a short bias week and also avoid trades which might have caused losses.
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  • #687
  • Dec 5, 2021 5:09pm Dec 5, 2021 5:09pm
Quoting Rearden
Weekly Summary 29 Nov to 03 Dec The learnings of Monday and Tuesday is summarized in the above posts. With regards to the first #3b trade that I took, the price has already closed and held above the MA. And also the direction of the MA was UP. The good thing that I did was to exit with a very small loss of 2 pips. I feel that if I want to take a short, it would be better to wait for the MA to turn down and price to reach the edges before I take a #1 short. This will help top reduce the risk. The area where I exited my profitable trade on Thursday...
Good... you had the right instincts and you know even though we are in an up move, good likelihood we'll continue with the bias. Notice the short you took would've worked, but the short from where you exited the long would have been at about the same place and the moving average was telling you price was drifting in a favorable direction, it worked as well and with less stress. Yes, good long, good exit.

Now you have to make decisions. What are some ideas you already have right now for the week ahead.
Be bullish on you.
  • #688
  • Dec 5, 2021 5:57pm Dec 5, 2021 5:57pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Good... you had the right instincts and you know even though we are in an up move, good likelihood we'll continue with the bias. Notice the short you took would've worked, but the short from where you exited the long would have been at about the same place and the moving average was telling you price was drifting in a favorable direction, it worked as well and with less stress. Yes, good long, good exit. Now you have to make decisions. What are some ideas you already have right now for the week ahead.
The weekly candle was not able to close near its high and has closed within the high of week before(22 Nov to 26 Nov) itself. Same applies for the Friday daily candle. The price is still within a Bigger range which was created on 30th November and is still in UP move. The price is now at the 75 pip mark of the 150 pip range (which is the middle).

In the 1 hour, price is making LH and LLs. Also, the price opened below the MA. But its still above the BRN(1.1300) and weekly open area. Since it open below the MA, I waited for it to retrace to MA and took a #3b short. Also, the MA is moving down. I am not sure if it will find support at the Weekly Open + 1.1300 BRN area and go up. If so I will exit when it holds above the MA . But it might go to the Friday or Thursday high area(1.1350) and still come down. I will see if its gives any PA here for a low risk short.

Looking at the weekly candle and the bias, my plan ahead for the week will be to find good place to short the market. If the price find support at the BRN+Weekly Open area, and go up, I have to wait to see if it gives me an opportunity for a low risk long once it clears 1.1350 area or at least I have to avoid taking shorts.
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  • #689
  • Dec 6, 2021 4:32am Dec 6, 2021 4:32am
The price came down to my target and missed it for 1 pip. Since it was near the previous day low area I exited the trade for 25 pip profit. I will watch what price does at today's high. I will not trade but will watch if it gives another short PA or if it will break the Friday highs and start going up.
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  • #690
  • Dec 6, 2021 6:38am Dec 6, 2021 6:38am
Quoting Rearden
The price came down to my target and missed it for 1 pip. Since it was near the previous day low area I exited the trade for 25 pip profit. I will watch what price does at today's high. I will not trade but will watch if it gives another short PA or if it will break the Friday highs and start going up. {image}
Nice, you made that look easy
Be bullish on you.
  • #691
  • Dec 6, 2021 4:52pm Dec 6, 2021 4:52pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Nice, you made that look easy
Thank you
  • #692
  • Dec 6, 2021 5:13pm Dec 6, 2021 5:13pm
07 Dec 2021 Short bias UP move

The price as expected came down 35+ pips from yesterday high to the Friday low but didnt break or poke it it. I will watch for PA at the MA/ Weekly open area and see if there is a short PA. The MA is moving down and price is making LHs. The price is also nearing the white line. I will watch the chart but not trade today.
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  • #693
  • Dec 7, 2021 5:16pm Dec 7, 2021 5:16pm
08 Dec 2021 Short Bias down move

The price went to the MA +Weekly open area and closed below. This was an area that I said I will be looking for short PA. It also had the MA supporting the short trade. Since I had a positive trade for the week I didn't take the trade.

For today, price is approaching Nov lows but there is nothing which tells that the price can start to go up. The price has poked the previous low. I will still be looking for short from the MA (It did push lower from there ystr) and also may be higher up at the ystr highs. The MA is still going lower. I will watch what the price does and not trade today as well.
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  • #694
  • Dec 7, 2021 9:10pm Dec 7, 2021 9:10pm
Quoting Rearden
08 Dec 2021 Short Bias down move The price went to the MA +Weekly open area and closed below. This was an area that I said I will be looking for short PA. It also had the MA supporting the short trade. Since I had a positive trade for the week I didn't take the trade. For today, price is approaching Nov lows but there is nothing which tells that the price can start to go up. The price has poked the previous low. I will still be looking for short from the MA (It did push lower from there ystr) and also may be higher up at the ystr highs. The MA is...
I want you to re-think your statement here "nothing which tells me price could go up"... it's this type of certainty that makes you miss things. Although price went lower than the previous close, it certainly didn't blow through the lows and didn't make it out of the wick. This might hint it will head back up. Heck, this might be the start of a move all the way back to the top of the range. Always see both sides. We had about 10 hits of that 50simple and all of them dropped. Now that price went into that wick and came back up... maybe the next hit is worth sitting back and watching. Hopefully you get the point I'm trying to make.
Be bullish on you.
  • #695
  • Dec 8, 2021 2:43am Dec 8, 2021 2:43am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I want you to re-think your statement here "nothing which tells me price could go up"... it's this type of certainty that makes you miss things. Although price went lower than the previous close, it certainly didn't blow through the lows and didn't make it out of the wick. This might hint it will head back up. Heck, this might be the start of a move all the way back to the top of the range. Always see both sides. We had about 10 hits of that 50simple and all of them dropped. Now that price went into that wick and came back up... maybe the...
Yes G. Although seeing the daily candle I thought there is a chance that price might go up, I was mainly referring to the 1 hour when I said that. I didn't even realize the certainty in that thought and it would have definitely made me enter a trade at the MA if I was trading. And I missed to notice all the things you mentioned.

The price went down, didn't close below and came back up. Also, it happened at the lower part of the bigger channel with Nov lows below. I think I have to work on these details and learn to see and consider both sides. And also sitting back and watching without getting involved when it was coming back up from the edges was also something I have to work on. I think this basically happens when I understand the context and apply a detached view on both sides regardless of price going up or down. Right now, I sometimes fit PA to my frame of thinking.

Thank you very much for the post. This was very helpful.
  • #696
  • Dec 8, 2021 7:30pm Dec 8, 2021 7:30pm
09 Dec Short Bias Down move

The price is still in a down move. The price has reached the 1350 area which is where the previous highs is. I will continue to watch the price to see if it will break the highs and proceed further after a retrace to pivot or 1.13 BRN. The MA has turned to the upside. I am interested to watch the yesterday highs to see if the price will fail to break that area. No trades for today as well.
  • #697
  • Dec 8, 2021 9:34pm Dec 8, 2021 9:34pm
Quoting Rearden
09 Dec Short Bias Down move The price is still in a down move. The price has reached the 1350 area which is where the previous highs is. I will continue to watch the price to see if it will break the highs and proceed further after a retrace to pivot or 1.13 BRN. The MA has turned to the upside. I am interested to watch the yesterday highs to see if the price will fail to break that area. No trades for today as well.
Hopefully it feels nice to have the pressure of figuring out a trade off your shoulders and more focus on what's occurring now.
Be bullish on you.
  • #698
  • Dec 9, 2021 6:57pm Dec 9, 2021 6:57pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Hopefully it feels nice to have the pressure of figuring out a trade off your shoulders and more focus on what's occurring now.
Hi G,

Yes. I was thinking of this and I believe I am unconsciously focused and looking for the next trade always instead of focusing on what' s occurring now and if what had occurred gives me a low risk opportunity. Usually I realise this for a while and then forget and focus on finding trades again. I have to find a way to get rid of this cycle psychologically. Only then I can start to think of consistent returns.
  • #699
  • Edited 8:48am Dec 10, 2021 8:13am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, Yes. I was thinking of this and I believe I am unconsciously focused and looking for the next trade always instead of focusing on what' s occurring now and if what had occurred gives me a low risk opportunity. Usually I realise this for a while and then forget and focus on finding trades again. I have to find a way to get rid of this cycle psychologically. Only then I can start to think of consistent returns.
Great observation. Try replacing it with... two profitable weeks in a row. Much learned. Keep building the momentum.
You can see we have the same ideas. It's not the entry as much as the idea. I see the potential danger and exit this week. As you mentioned, you are thinking about what's next, and miss the danger. Appreciate the momentum of now. Then, plan what's next with clear eyes. Slow down to go fast. I typed those words 10 years ago on here. Still hold true.

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Be bullish on you.
  • #700
  • Dec 12, 2021 5:12pm Dec 12, 2021 5:12pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Great observation. Try replacing it with... two profitable weeks in a row. Much learned. Keep building the momentum. You can see we have the same ideas. It's not the entry as much as the idea. I see the potential danger and exit this week. As you mentioned, you are thinking about what's next, and miss the danger. Appreciate the momentum of now. Then, plan what's next with clear eyes. Slow down to go fast. I typed those words 10 years ago on here. Still hold true. {image}
Thank you
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