EURUSD only

See - as I said there is a flaw to this logic - market had gone ahead of itself.

All you need to know of wooly butterflies

Booked my longs here at 1.13450.
Calling it a day here, see y'all tomorrow

Wo bulls !

I like seeing the happy posts! Thank you so much for sharing! I know some of you were waiting very long for another good bulls move. Your patience paid off ! I hope to join you soon, but am happy just breathing in the overall joy from you, while waiting some more in the red for my long-term shorts.

Price has just reached 1350s! And now it becomes interesting again, at the edge of the world !
Can it go beyond the highs of the 18th once and for all(from a few perspectives, it has been ranging for this long!)?
Will it break out of this ++days long ranging ?
Or will it, again, continue to prove its indecision and go back down? Will it simply expand the range or actually shift it up a bit more?
So many things can happen still. I continue to prepare for anything.

3H - 6H ranging conditions are still optimal, which has given me a long setup from 81, mid-bottom, all the way back up to mid-high. It is also bringing me to start doing the opposite with a first 5min countertrend setup, starting now. Sold here 13491, and also have sell stops for range trades at 1337, 13325, 1328 and 1319. I know, seems extreme, but half will probably be closed at BE or in a loss... The first and last aim at around the middle, now 1300 (raising with the bulls strength). The others depend on too many factors, at least one will be moved at BE when/if other end (now 1266, raising still) is reached, JUST in case the bears to take back control in the next wave... I will do my best to update as always, win or lose. I am trading with the expectation that the bulls will attempt 1380s again, 1460s at the most.

Will be selling aggressively till 1305, if bulls ever do let go !

Bloody Bulls!, forced me to hedge a little, again, and be a bit more patient with my shorts. If it wasn't for bears downtrend still very much in the works(12h-W), for me, I would be doing exact same thing, but the other way...

I see some do not understand my dynamic SLs and TPs, or my very rare hedging. I have done my best to explain it throughout my posts, and am sorry to have not been clear enough for some... If anyone is really interested, just Like this post and I will gladly add some info in my future posts.

And with this, I wish a merry merry night to all !

Sell limit @ 1.13483
Tp @ 1.12596
Sl 50 pips

Reason been that, we took out the lows of last week, meaning sell the high and I expect a bearish engulfing day tomorrow.
Looking at 4hrs chart, you can see that the target forms the right shoulder of the pending inverse head and shoulders pattern

There’s the start of the drop I’ve been waiting for - short @ 1346 the last ~4 hours holding my breath

curious how long you’ll hold this position for to reach your tp. I’ve always struggled with holding for longer time frames and “weathering the storm” vs jumping in and out each day or multiple times a day

set tp and sl.
walk away.
check and adjust at regular intervals.

don't get too excited with 50-100 pips move mate. There are no flaws to this topic. Market is right to pricing in the policy divergence with a stupid ECB at backyard, if things remain the same we could see EU trading 1.10 soon. only a rise above 1.1450 could ease the bear pressure and bulls could start gearing up...


Trade Safe
Happy Trading

Well, the resistance held again but the question is if we repeat the story again and move the whole way to 1.1240. Personally I look for signs of an early reversal around 1.1293-1.1307, as indicated below. If we were to see an early reversal this could indicate a coming break through the resistance at 1.1353, otherwise next stop is 1.1240 or even lower.

But the ECB has been moving as of late, check the rumours.

Yep you are right...but sometimes rumours helps to create opportunities .. at the end hard data remains as the fact .. if ECB doesn't move it's ass from it's current position(publicly) then I am afraid the policy divergence is here to stay



Happy Trading

Yes in principle you are right, currently the policy divergence is extreme. But forward looking the divergence could shrink because of two factors. First: US inflation is still primarily driven by energy and used cars. Without these components it would be half of the 7% we will see on Friday. The 1y1y inflation swap prices at 3%. Meaning if we see what the market expects, US inflation will ease significantly over the coming year and the FED could actually relax. Second: Voices are getting louder in the ECB to officially prepare for the case of permamently higher inflation, like other central banks do. This could take the market by surprise. Hence my conclusion is that policy divergence is currently huge, but it will probably shrink from here, though the FED will stay more hawkish than the ECB of course. But what do you think drives the currency more, changes in policy divergence (i.e. ECB becoming relatively less dovish or FED relatively less hawkish) or the mere direction of policy divergence (FED more hawkish than ECB)? I think the changes do matter more. But this is an open question.

I do hope that things gets turn around ... but a hawkish ECB ??? ... I have lost my faith on them .. I just can remember when was the last time they were publicly hawkish... they always want cheap EURO.. this is their main agenda as EU an exporting block of nations and cheap EURO actually helps them ....
EURO has been running under FED's mercy for the last 10 years or so...and I don't see any reason to change the stance anytime soon.


Happy Trading

Yes but I didn't say hawkish, I said relatively less dovish might be enough for the euro to rise
Damn my bullish euro bias is still too high. If we don't see EURUSD above 1.40 within the next two years I will give up on it I promise I will change my profile picture to a bear then.

Hi folks !

Bulls have perhaps not said their last word. I say now it is about 50/50% chance that they are going to take it to higher high today, and if they do, it is probably going to be starting mainly from right here.

This here 1316-1322, for me, is the first important level of the day, which, if it is broken through early enough (this or next 2H to 4H close below here + follow through a weeee bit under the the new low would do the job), and given the present ranging conditions, should stop Mr.Price from making it back and staying above 1320, today. Of course, everything is possible, but we have to continue our gymnastics around probabilities and risk.

I want to re-share something to put what happened today in perspective.

Tuesday night, after the new month low, I have shared my experience in ranging trading and regarding the great chances of price simply going back all the way up, and the space we were in at the time, which I call my "ranging Danger Zone" :

Once at 1270 break from below, the probability for it to rise again all the way back up increased considerably, but also to decline significantly again afterwards, at least to high-mid line(right here), and which has happened. I had to take action to make it possible for my longer-term shorts to make it through it. Longed a bit, hedged a bit, to put very simply. I explained it more in my previous posts, but I got the message, thank you, and will do my best to be even clearer in the future.

So yesterday, same conditions, but from above, but this time, because of the long-term downtrend, I am a little more aggressive, of course moving SL a BE at every two setup:

It is important to note that these 4 sell stops were set in place ONLY in anticipation of what was probable enough to happen, given the past and present conditions. And that I am there and have advisors to make sure significant enough setups, around each entry, from the different TF and approaches, are confirmed along the way.

Today, up to now, the best case scenario happened, similar the beginning of yesterdays bulls run, the move down was unwavering and the smallest stops could be used. So they have all survived, to my great surprise. Happens very rarely with this particular approach.

Closed only my 1337 a minute ago +20, the rest, except 1319, are at BE. Next dynamic TP is now at 1294(rising still), and is reserved for my 1319 entry which definitely will be at BE at 1302.

I will not be taking any new setups before tomorrows news. Also, I am not sure I will be there to update further today. It is a pleasure to read you and share with you all.

P.S when developing ranging strats, I always had our beautiful Earth in mind. Right now, we would be at the Exosphere, and Major Price is still floating.
Usually, at a given time, up moves are quite different from down moves, and different calculations have to be made whether it is to identify long or short opportunities. But, when ranging conditions are established, and at least till it all withers away without warning, there is a stronger center of gravity, and both longs and shorts can be calculated more similarly. Also, let's remember what happens if our spaceship gets catapulted well and hard enough and falls an inch too far from earth (average middle of range)? Lost in space... And happy bears or happy bulls at last ! Cheers warmly all !

still holding - but thinking 1.13000 isn’t going to give way easy. I mean it’s the number 13 and I’m short so of course it’ll probably bounce off that and scream back up in 15 minutes what it’s taken 15 hours to accumulate in pips lol

My guess: Fake channel breakout to the downside then up.

edit: moved my sl to a very tight 3250 to lock in some pips and letting it ride for now. Watching the 15m still looks very promising for continual drop. I’m central time so NY is about to open. Guess will see what happens there