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  • #143,061
  • Dec 7, 2021 8:09pm Dec 7, 2021 8:09pm
Quoting mtako
Good afternoon everyone ! Yesterday ended again with the feeling that bears did not convince me yet. How dare they, after a long awaited 1260s touch, come back this deep into this +30 trading hours indefatigable 1260s-1320s range ! At that time, the last 30m cdls at the bottom of the range were mirroring the previous 30m cdls above it, and oh so very nicely. Yesterday's result = bloody nothing new, if not a sprinkle added to bears momentum. Alas, bulls did not manage to reach anything but the low of the high of that range,...

Wow long time I had not been woken up by alarms twice the same night.
Worst case scenario I explained above is probably happening with this bulls pace. I was forced to temporarily remove all SL and TP of my shorts and hedge again, from 1276, 5 pips back. And also bought here at 1281. Again again again, fun ! Hope everyone is having sweet dreams, can't wait to see you again !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,062
  • Dec 7, 2021 8:23pm Dec 7, 2021 8:23pm
pa broke above 1276 definitely 1.13xx should print potential 1368
  • #143,063
  • Edited 9:04pm Dec 7, 2021 8:47pm | Edited 9:04pm
I’m trying a short here @ 1288

closed it 5 pip loss - wasn’t the quick fall back was hoping for.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #143,064
  • Dec 8, 2021 12:07am Dec 8, 2021 12:07am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Wow long time I had not been woken up by alarms twice the same night. Worst case scenario I explained above is probably happening with this bulls pace. I was forced to temporarily remove all SL and TP of my shorts and hedge again, from 1276, 5 pips back. And also bought here at 1281. Again again again, fun ! Hope everyone is having sweet dreams, can't wait to see you again !
Hey mtako, great to see that you stay active 24/7, this is commitment! I was just wondering about an aspect of your strategy you were mentioning. So you enter stop-losses and take profits, but when the price is about to reach the level you temporarily remove them?
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,065
  • Dec 8, 2021 1:27am Dec 8, 2021 1:27am
#EURUSD / Weekly & Daily
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  • #143,066
  • Dec 8, 2021 3:23am Dec 8, 2021 3:23am
Retail longs declining! In FF we are down to 50% now, in FXSSI we are at 56% also marking a significant decline. May be we will see the long awaited moment for the strategic bulls when retail longs turn negative.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,067
  • Dec 8, 2021 4:30am Dec 8, 2021 4:30am
Quoting nic9man
Retail longs declining! In FF we are down to 50% now, in FXSSI we are at 56% also marking a significant decline. May be we will see the long awaited moment for the strategic bulls when retail longs turn negative.
Do you think the rocket will pop up before next Wednesday FOMC?
  • #143,068
  • Dec 8, 2021 5:58am Dec 8, 2021 5:58am
Patience is key at the moment
  • #143,069
  • Dec 8, 2021 6:17am Dec 8, 2021 6:17am
Based on M15: 1.1272 is crucial.. If bulls want continuation, they have to stay above it... Let's see..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #143,070
  • Edited 6:36am Dec 8, 2021 6:22am | Edited 6:36am
Quoting bonnzi
{quote} Do you think the rocket will pop up before next Wednesday FOMC?
Only if US inflation shows some ease on Friday, otherwise the FED will be perceived as even more hawkish which might get nasty for the euro. If, however, we should reach a point where US higher inflation is perceived USD negative, this would be a game changer, because it would mean that the market would not be focussing on the FED stance any longer (higher inflation = more hawkish FED), but on the value of the dollar instead (higher inflation = USD devaluation), which would be a huge deal in my opinion. Right now we don't see this yet. This would mean that the USD would be traded like an EM currency, reacting with devaluation on higher inflation. It would also mean that its status as reserve currency would be at stake which would prompt an even more aggressive FED.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,071
  • Dec 8, 2021 6:25am Dec 8, 2021 6:25am
Quoting Monk
I’m trying a short here @ 1288 closed it 5 pip loss - wasn’t the quick fall back was hoping for.
Hey Monk, that was not a bad entry - quite sensible, actually - however the problem was that you wasn't ready to risk more than 5 pips. If you'd let it live its life for a day, I think you would have earned 40 to 50 pips. Very often, market does not go your way from the instant you place a trade. Sometimes it gets a bit too high above or low below your entry. Meaning 10 to 15 points before it makes the U turn, goes your way, and starts earning you pips. It is a typical situation with most larger trades, be it both intraday or lasting few days to TP (or SL) as the case may be. I do not mean scalpers for just several pips - there you normally buy or sell when price is ranging.
  • #143,072
  • Edited 6:58am Dec 8, 2021 6:40am | Edited 6:58am
Good boy my bull.. good boy..

Marking 1.1282 as nearest support on M15..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #143,073
  • Edited 8:20am Dec 8, 2021 7:33am | Edited 8:20am
Bulls have done well indeed! A lot of adapting was needed. That is what trading is for me. Reacting, adapting. Not predicting.

Price has entered my mid-high of probable range, so closed my long here 1301. +20, and de-hedged my shorts.

Some explanations for those interested :

Quoting mtako
... This week could be a good week for bears ! I say "could" because this is far from being over, for me. Price is now venturing in what is for me a bear's danger zone. And the first real danger would be a return in 1300s, which would probably slow bears down too much, and I would have to scale down my long-term shorts. 1240s without, at least, a clean break of 1220s, far enough from the low, in the middle of what could become typical ranging conditions all the way to 8H to 1D!... Now, more than ever, conditions have opened up the door to buy opportunities. One that first comes to mind, since first entry level is the closest (1270), a 3H-6H possible double-bottom strengthened by developing 3H-6H ranging conditions. Bears really need to maintain this +4 days pressure.... {image}
Updated to :

Quoting mtako
Sleepy Mtako here, this rarely happens, but I have had to push up my shared dynamic SLs quite a bit, for I need a good wick to place my closest SL above it, but now my closest is at 1285. Bulls please Back to bed, sweet dreams all and beware this danger zone !!
Updated to :

Quoting mtako
{quote} Wow long time I had not been woken up by alarms twice the same night. Worst case scenario I explained above is probably happening with this bulls pace. I was forced to temporarily remove all SL and TP of my shorts and hedge again, from 1276, 5 pips back. And also bought here at 1281. Again again again, fun ! Hope everyone is having sweet dreams, can't wait to see you again !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,074
  • Dec 8, 2021 7:39am Dec 8, 2021 7:39am
Notice for the past 3 weeks, price has not closed below 1.2800? lets see what happens this week. price may or may not retest 1.1190 area and then close back again above 1.2800. With DXY, price has remained below 96.24. COT also indicates dollar weakness EUR strength imminent. Perhaps surprise news about tapering may tip the scales.
  • #143,075
  • Dec 8, 2021 7:39am Dec 8, 2021 7:39am
Get ready for a DROP!!!
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  • #143,076
  • Dec 8, 2021 7:44am Dec 8, 2021 7:44am
Quoting andvk74
Get ready for a DROP!!! {image}
not until price reaches 1.13650
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #143,077
  • Dec 8, 2021 7:53am Dec 8, 2021 7:53am
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  • #143,078
  • Dec 8, 2021 10:15am Dec 8, 2021 10:15am
Quoting andvk74
Get ready for a DROP!!! {image}
WHY?

I don't see anything on your chart to indicate that. Personally I don't see any catalyst to precipitate a drop until Friday with the CPI numbers.

The large drop yesterday was due to the Omicron crap (the sky is falling - the sky is falling...)
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...because you never know - until you do!
  • #143,079
  • Dec 8, 2021 10:24am Dec 8, 2021 10:24am
Quoting SnaveForex
pa broke above 1276 definitely 1.13xx should print potential 1368
After some few hours we are above 1.13 well into 1333 the end of a ABC zigzag correction. At this point let's see what the europe close bring to the table.
  • #143,080
  • Dec 8, 2021 11:34am Dec 8, 2021 11:34am
Well, it was a long hard nail-biting road, but I finally exited my long positions from last week at 1.1346 with a couple pips.

Was able to grab a few extra pips at 1.1322 and 1.1339 from some orders I added as we were going down.

Don't think I'll be doing that again anytime soon!

Green pips to all, I'm out for the day, whew!
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