EURUSD only

Bear Market #2

EU would show strength next week. so I'm expecting a strong bullish next week

Friday 26th November
01:10 ST Short 1.1209 Thinking it will approach the lows again before going up.
02:15 ST Oh boy! That went underwater so fast and so deep... It doesn't swing this much at this time usually...
02:28 What a fucking bloodbath. I'm out after trying to get heavy. I was at +25% on week. Am at +15%.
02:48 Either this quiets down and reverses down, or it's going to be a 100+ upside PiPs day.
02:52 ...and now for the thing I dislike the most in trading. Getting on board a moving train... Trying to long this.
03:08 Long 10% of account 1.1217 ...reduced taking some profits.
03:21 I guess today I'll keep managing my long as I expect it to continue up all into London.
05:12 So, it retraced 12 PiPs. Didn't increase the long as I expected deeper retr. Hedged, hedges went into loss, averaged out of the hedge with profit. Still think it will go up in London but only have 6% of acc. long and now again the hated prospect of having to chase it to increment... Balance up 18% weekly.
06:48 Require a change of perspective. Reassess my bias. Closed everything. Acc. +20% weekly.
08:37 Maybe is the Xanax. Maybe is s.thing else, but I'm fading the new daiily high and am fading the ensuing drop. At least for now.
10:00 Short 1.1235 Played around a bit increasing higher and decreasing lower. Now flat. Acc. +22% weekly. It's kind of enticing but suspicious for a short entry. ...Yeah, and that's what I meant; broken to the upside.
10:38 Chasing the long from a (hopefully) safe distance.
11:02 What, 40 PiPs retr?! Fun.
11:57 I'm at 20% of acc. [long] 1.255 Not the best use of the retr...

19:00 Just woke up from extended nap. Most TPs executed. Balance up 67% weekly. Still one long open for 3% of acc. 1.1255 with a TP 1.134 it would make this week +87%. Many regrets. If I hadn't had doubts about my up bias, midway, this would have been a 200+% week easily...
20:20 I chickened out again closing main remaining long. Not sure how far they want to take this down retr. +79% on account this week. ...want to try keep playing this to get to a round +80%

20:34 At 06:48 I dropped my long bias based on minor signs. At 10:00 I played the up and down on the short side increasing account by 2% instead of building my long... What a sucker!

23:56 I failed to get my 80% weekly gain. Finished +77% on equity with 1.5% of account long.

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As you can see from my Friday log, I was at it for 24 hours, minus 6 hours I couldn't stay awake also because I was on double Xanax (1.5mg/day).
The thing played out exactly as I and others (I recall Wavegarr dude, for example) had anticipated; past 1.24 it exploded up. And yet I was still playing short then and just barely managed to get flat before the boom. So, I then had to build my long on the run which went sub-optimal, but still OK given how hard that is, with 20% of account at 1.1255 after the down retr. Then, the TPs I had set up before nap, were wrong; I didn't place them high enough. I was also wrong at the end when I anticipated a deeper retr. down before a last impulse up to 1.134...

Edit. I want to expand a little on my initial short. While totally convinced the direction was up, I, and others (I saw them on the chart), thought it would have been hilarious to take it down first, given that many were thinking up. Going down would have meant taking out of loss a lot of retail positions, but that doesn't matter during Asia session because those guys are asleep at that time. It often goes back into the losing retails positions in Asia, it almost never does it during London session. There were technical reasons to support it too. Well, we, fun people, were quickly overwhelmed, by those of more pragmatic mind. The swinging that ensued was, as it usually is, to balance out, the losing side reversing. I had to take a net loss because I was in very heavy, over 70% of account at one time and had no maneuvering margin.

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Next week. The top has not been reached. After a down retr. it will make new high, at least 1.134 but possibly [probably much] higher. The higher trend should still be down. [We might just have had (this week) the end of the 2021 down trend.]

Just saw your post - thanks for the discussion - but I disagree. On what basis would parity be fair?

The USD has been gradually losing purchasing power over the last years due to higher inflation. The fair value would be around 1.45. If we went to parity the deviation from the purchasing power would be of the magnitude of an EM country‘s deviation to its purchasing power parity. This can only be justified with high productivity differentials. I cannot explain the reason in short here but here is a link describing the effect. Take a cross section of many countries valuation vs the purchasing power parity and you will see that it strongly correlates to productivity differentials in the medium-term. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bala...muelson_effect. Now the eurozone productivity is nothing like the productivity of a banana republic, but that is what you are implying with your parity fair value statement.

H1 Status Update

End of month is almost there and bulls might keep the advantage, which they have recently gained, also for the upcoming week..

For Monday I am favoring bulls, but we must see if GREEN line and/or my nearest support area: 1.13045 will do its job.. Any break below nearest support could cause some temporary correction but as long as above GREEN, I think it is best is to stay bullish and to rinse and repeat.. Just my quick thoughts..

Keep enjoying your weekends folks

...

I have three levels I am interested on for today

First is 1.12812 for first buy targeting 1.13583

Second is 1.13583 for selling targeting 1.12812

Third is 1.12317 also for buying if we ever get to that level.

Price currently bounced off a resistance turned support monthly trendline which has been acting as resistance for the past couple of years. A monthly close above the trendline will give bulls upper hand and the journey to 1.3000 will begin. IMO it's advisable to buy the dips.

Wish y'all a happy and successful trading week ahead

Buy limit at 1.12812 active

I have obviously bent a few rules of cup and handle to overlay the graphic on the chart:

But on the other hand, there is something different about this pattern than the previous waves.
A graduating down of the slope of the decline. that sharp horn at the top of the last wave.
Just the exhaustion from all that descent.

I donno, just getting vibes.

Hope everyone had a great week end. I sure did. Sold again here 1268, moving above traded and this one at BE at 1255, which I suspect will most likely be strong support or get cut through like a hot knife in butter. Wishing to all a wonderful week!

Trying an additional short-term long here at 1.1262, SL 1.1252, TP around 1.1380 to see if a rejection or break happens.
EDIT: SL now set to BE

Simply beautiful entry mate. I suspect your first big obstacle is right here, then 80, then 90. Wishing you a straight cut through above these probable ranging levels so your tight SL can be enough. Very good start indeed nic9man!

Thanks, when we touch 1.1280 I put SL to BE because statistically the probability of hitting the SL is high as the profit to loss ratio of the trade would be highly skewed around 12:1...

We think alike !

I remember the long period we spent holding our longs. Sure was a nice ride we had there.
Are you planning another "many weeks in the longs" run? I am. Just waiting a bit more. For above 1350 minimum, or after a decent double bottom or the likes, from the 6H and up.

You will get the head start, I will do my best not to be too far behind !

As I laid out in a previous post it is all about what happens at 1.1380. If we get there I think it is worth trying a short, but if we get through I am in for a longer bullish try.
If we close below 1.12 I am generally out for the time being and observe what it happening.

(Picture below per Friday).
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...5&d=1637954951

Good morning Dealers

EU seems to be doing fine since Friday... we are now at month end junction .. Just beware of month end flows which could defy all your techs and fundies...

NB: Any news on OMICRON , good or bad could influence the market sentiment as well

Trade Safe
Happy Trading

Just sold a small amount @ 1.1285, aiming at TP 1.1235, SL BE + 20.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13803658
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