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Quoting JotaP
{quote} I see the reason you came here. Last time we talked you had 3 months trading, 61% DrawDown , 13% Profit, 1 month with losses and still you were very happy. Now you doubled your capital and you are even more happy. Congratulations, but you are a typical bad trader, you will blow your account any time soon. I know, I have been there, I have taken $500 to $30000 in less than 2 months then lost half of it in the time it takes to pick up a beer from the fridge. Anyway, you can always ask mum some more money to open another account and continue...
Watch and learn. You may want to show my system to your m*m as well. I am done with you
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Watch and learn. You may want to show my system to your m*m as well. I am done with you
Go to bed, kid. And have nice get rich fast dreams.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
It was a long wait for the announced Gold dip, but it is under way. I expect it to continue for a while, at least till around 1770, so will keep that target for now. {image}
It keeps declining. Still a short perspective?
Always ready to help
Quoting PaulMF
{quote} It keeps declining. Still a short perspective?
Sure, it will go down. It just went up because EURUSD made a retracement and XAUUSD is priced in USD. EURUSD started going down again.
(As you know EURUSD is almost the dollar index inverted, not exactly the real USD relative currency strength but is an indicator anyway)
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Oil drop, probably a little earlier than the expectations, changed a few things in the chess board. Energy companies stocks fall, and this is reflected in the indices, most notably Dow Jones, where Energy weights more. We may think that the XAUUSD move upwards means that we are going from a situation of risk on to a situation of risk off.
I don't think this is the right conclusion. XAUUSD main trend is still downwards.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
It was a long wait for the announced Gold dip, but it is under way. I expect it to continue for a while, at least till around 1770, so will keep that target for now. {image}
I missed the $1770 profit target by $8.55, then we had the pull back. I am still in good profit, but may close the position if NY open does not fix the existing global market rout.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
{quote} I missed the $1770 profit target by $8.55, then we had the pull back. I am still in good profit, but may close the position if NY open does not fix the existing global market rout.
The end of week context is bullish. You may exit before US open.
Always ready to help
Quoting PaulMF
{quote} The end of week context is bullish. You may exit before US open.
Let's see what happens.
Safe Heaven currencies, CHF and JPY, are moving up, Gold may follow. However, USD is a Safe Heaven as well and FED struggles to keep it strong.

In the chart below we see the Currencies situation:

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Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
When can we expect an analysis for the week ahead?
Always ready to help
  • Post #50
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:58am Nov 28, 2021 2:02am | Edited at 3:58am
Quoting PaulMF
When can we expect an analysis for the week ahead?
My outlook for the upcoming week (may be wrong, obviously) is as follows:

There is another variable to watch, which is the Covid-19 new variant, it will depress the global economy expectations.

Oil is expected to continue dropping, a target of $60.00 for USOIL is possible. If Oil continues dropping US indices will follow, with the possible exception of NASDAQ 100.
XAUUSD may continue ranging, I don't much expect it will break upwards unless global economy clearly starts collapsing.

From this, I see for this week:
- USD stable/weaker then stronger later in the week.
- JPY stronger
- CAD weaker
- AUD weaker
- NZD weaker
- CHF stable
- GBP usual zigzag speculation
- EUR stable/weaker

Note that USD continues very strong, EURUSD end of the week move upwards was mostly due to EUR efforts, see weekly and daily Relative Currency Charts below. This detail is not portrayed by the dollar index. Another detail that most people don't value, just because EUR got stronger does not mean the EURO economy is better off or that ECB did anything in particular, it may simply mean that FED purchased a few billion EUR to cause an EURUSD retracement for liquidity. Everything is manipulated.

Weekly:

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Daily:
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Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
{quote} My outlook for the upcoming week (may be wrong, obviously) is as follows: There is another variable to watch, which is the Covid-19 new variant, it will depress the global economy expectations. Oil is expected to continue dropping, a target of $60.00 for USOIL is possible. If Oil continues dropping US indices will follow, with the possible exception of NASDAQ 100. XAUUSD may continue ranging, I don't much expect it will break upwards unless global economy clearly starts collapsing. From this, I see for this week: - USD stable/weaker then...
Interesting. Keep us posted. I think that a weekly outlook will be good. Thanks.
Always ready to help
Quoting PaulMF
{quote} Interesting. Keep us posted. I think that a weekly outlook will be good. Thanks.
Maybe I will.
For this week, my projections were mostly based on oil. If oil does not comply, namely if OPEC reduces output things will change.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
{quote} Maybe I will. For this week, my projections were mostly based on oil. If oil does not comply, namely if OPEC reduces output things will change.
Hope you do.

Lately, as you already know, I have shared many BBC's links. This is a new one: US to release oil reserves in attempt to lower prices (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59353194)
Always ready to help
Quoting JotaP
It was a long wait for the announced Gold dip, but it is under way. I expect it to continue for a while, at least till around 1770, so will keep that target for now. {image}
It's gold again!

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Always ready to help
Quoting PaulMF
{quote} It's gold again! {image}
I think that it is waiting for EURUSD to drop below 1.186 to make another dip. May not take long.
Oil moving slowly down, so far all pairs moving approximately according to expectations.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
According to my expectations oil dropped (more to come, I think) with reverberating effects on CAD and JPY.

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Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
According to my expectations oil dropped (more to come, I think) with reverberating effects on CAD and JPY. {image}
Well done! Good week and just started!
Always ready to help
  • Post #58
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:57am Nov 30, 2021 11:46am | Edited at 11:57am
Quoting PaulMF
{quote} Well done! Good week and just started!
It was a good day. XAUUSD reached the Profit target of $1770.

Almost all objectives I have traced for the week have been reach this Monday.

Finally, I made 10% in my 5th FTMO trial challenge in a single day (respecting all Risk Management rules).

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Quoting JotaP
{quote} It was a good day. XAUUSD reached the Profit target of $1770. Almost all objectives I have traced for the week have been reach this Monday. Finally, I made 10% in my 5th FTMO trial challenge in a single day (respecting all Risk Management rules). {image}
Congratulations! This is your week. Keep pushing!
Always ready to help
This is the current Daily Relative Currency Strength:

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I am mostly a Fundamental Analyst and Price Action trader and only use a couple of helper tools, my Currency Strength Indicators included.

I believe that the market is all manipulated, the trader most endeavor to guess what is being prepared behind the scenes and how it will affect his/her trading choices.
This week I got it all right, some weeks I may fail some projections. Trading is a game of skill, we will never get it 100% right all the time, but important is turn the odds in our favor in the long run.

I am also done with my 5th Trial FTMO Challenge. I am on day 5, but will not trade more of it. On the 4th day I reached 10.2% profit then closed some open positions to prevent the worst and ended with 7.5%. It is enough to pass. Actually, the positions I closed turned again in my favor but I will not regret the decision. Why? Because Risk Management dictated that.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
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