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Attachments: AWTT - Trader Toolkit
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AWTT - Trader Toolkit

Let's have a look at the weekly currencies strength rank and how it compares with the situation 2 weeks ago (post #10).

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USD is clearly weaker, NZD has done a big push upwards, Yen always symmetrical with CAD, EUR about the same as before, AUD clearly surging.

Can you correlate these changes with fundamental events?

People that only follow traditional indicators can't. People that believe currency pairs move mostly due to supply/demand for the pairs can't. People that only look for patterns on charts may arrive too late to any conclusions.

It is necessary more. Think about it, I will help you out here.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Our Currency Strength Charts show candlestick 0 as ongoing. By this I mean that it shows the current relative strength for the currently opened candlestick.

This is more useful than waiting until the candlestick closes to have any light about what is going on.

For example, for the Weekly Time Frame, we notice a change from yesterday's chart (shown in the previous post).

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In weekly terms, we may say that USD appears to be confirming a recovery.
It is a very slight recovery though, as we can more clearly see on the daily-chart.

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Is there momentum to pursue the recovery?

Looking at the 4-hours chart we notice a clear push upwards, although other currencies were not disputing the move, most notably the EUR and CHF were even collaborating.

We believe USD will attempt to continue upwards, but the path is difficult. In the meantime, I would trade with other currency pairs or instruments until things become more clear.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Not much as changed on the weekly Currency Strength Chart in reference to yesterday.

In the daily Currency Strength Chart we noticed a slight move downwards of the GBP.

Let's look at the 4-hour Currency Strength Chart to see it better:

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Indeed, GBP is making a temporary move downwards. Time to trade it against USD or EUR (at the time of this post, of course). This is just my suggestion.

Good luck, Traders.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
GBP aligned with expectancies and traders that entered positions according to our yesterday's considerations made a good profit.

This happens almost all the time when are analysis are factual and objective.

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From the above 4-hour Currency Strength Chart (snapshot just taken) we can see that USD remains somewhat lazy and EURUSD is in a range. It is clearly difficult for EURUSD to break below the range, as it wishes, but it keeps trying.

Some people call it consolidation, this is just a word. The likely reason is that most institutional traders are selling. FED can't push EURUSD down (i.e. make USD stronger) without a heavy cost.

Unless the EUR becomes even weaker, and it is, just look at the chart again. Waiting to see what will happen.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Following up the yesterday's analysis, we saw an EURUSD false breakout north. This was a stop hunt to remove existing EURUSD sellers and at the same time enroll new buyers, those believing in a trend change, to be deluded later.

It appeared to be a coordinated action between EUR and USD Central Banks, EUR got stronger and USD weaker. But could as well have been a FED single effort, we never know what happens behind the scenes.

Other than cashing in liquidity, how useful was this false breakout for the top Smart Money entities? Probably not much, institutional traders have not been deluded, they are still Selling, and the situation may continue inconclusive for the next few days.

This is the daily Currency Strength Chart:

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Have a great weekend, Traders!
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
In practice, I can consider my 4th FTMO Challenge Trial, followed by Forex Factory Trade Explorer (like all the previous ones), passed with honors.

So far, I have done 4 FTMO Challenge Trials, 3 passed, 1 only profitable (could retry free). Since the probability of passing a single challenge is less than 5%, the probability of passing 3 challenges in 4 tries is:

4!/3! x 0.05^3 x 0.95 = 0.00285 or 0.285%

Very small and can't be considered pure luck.

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PS: My offering for 1 AWTT license with Unlimited Free Life Upgrades against an intelligent feedback will expire on 31st October (next Sunday) and will not be extended or renewed.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • Post #27
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:18am Nov 1, 2021 4:45am | Edited at 5:18am
We will have an interesting week ahead.

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As a guideline, let's look at the Currency Strength Chart.
We see a slow CAD downtrend, associated with the recent decline in the oil prices.
However, USD regained vitality last Friday, and this will help oil at least keep its current price level (we can't forget that the United States is a very important oil producer and will try to protect this asset).
Currently, AUD is well inversely correlated (does not always happen) with the USD. This means as well the Gold is responding well to the USD.
NZD shows that United States Wall Street is performing well.
GBP is a speculation currency, nothing new here. We can say the same about CHF these days.
JPY is inversely correlated with the CAD, just look at the chart.
EUR will be a question mark for a while, however the EURO economy is performing better than expected.

PS: My offering for free AWTT licenses has expired and will not be renewed. Interestingly, I noticed from the referral links that some people placed orders after coming from this website. The conclusion to take is that is not worthwhile to offer anything to real traders.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Please look at the weekly Currency Strength Chart from the last post.
Read as well our comments.

Now, let's look at the past week's Currency Strength Chart:

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So, it confirms everything we said, no wonders here. It was expected to, but the important thing is to find out explanatory reasons for larger than expected moves.

See, the GBP has really dipped. Is there an explanatory reason? Yes, the interest rates. Will it recover? I think so, GBP is a speculation currency, it will recover sooner than anticipated.

Another somewhat weird move is the Gold move. Of course, Gold is not represented on the Currency Strength Chart, but AUD is, and AUD moved as expected, Gold did not. So we should expect a significant Gold dip early next week! Let's bet on that? Anyone?

BTW, a new release of AWTT will be available soon. I know, the current one works very well but since I use AWTT myself, whenever something can be improved I simply do it (this is the advantage of knowing how to code).

Have a great week ahead, Traders!
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
The expected Gold dip did not happen yet, but will take place anytime soon, very likely this week. In the meantime AUD is stable, apparently all it had to move due to the Gold dip anticipation has already been absorbed by the market and reflected in its price.
As mentioned in the previous post, GBP has started recovering. It is a speculative currency above them all, it will move where the liquidity is.

This is the daily Currency Strength Chart.

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Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
It was a long wait for the announced Gold dip, but it is under way. I expect it to continue for a while, at least till around 1770, so will keep that target for now.

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Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Let's see what happens. Lately, it falls more aggressively than it rises. Anyway, very clean trends in any direction. That has to be exploited.
Always ready to help
Quoting PaulMF
Let's see what happens. Lately, it falls more aggressively than it rises. Anyway, very clean trends in any direction. That has to be exploited.
There is no reason for Gold to be so pricey.
AUD signaled that Gold was going down, Australia is the 3rd World producer.
This simple logic works well for all commodity currencies, sometimes with some lag, as was the case.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
Hello Traders, I have just released Atelier Web Trader Toolkit (AWTT) for MT4 and MT5. I am convinced I am presenting something important that you will find extremely useful. I have a long career in the software industry and am not the kind of individual to market scam solutions. Please confirm for yourself. You can download and read the Manual and you can download a 15-day full featured trial version from here: AWTT for MT4 and MT5 Download (www.atelierweb.com/products/aw-trader-toolkit-for-mt4-and-mt5/awtt-for-mt4-and-mt5-download/)...
You disgust me salesman. At least now you are a "commercial member" hahaha. Check my track record btw loser
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} You disgust me salesman. At least now you are a "commercial member" hahaha. Check my track record btw loser
I asked Twee to be commercial, initially he said no need. When I saw that I was waisting my time in EURUSD, 99.5% losers, I asked again. I like to be here, there are some good threads and I found for the first time some very profitable traders which provide good hints.
I am starting doing prop trading for real, something you can't because you are a DrawDown champ. So stay were you are doing what you do best, bully people.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
{quote} I asked Twee to be commercial, initially he said no need. When I saw that I was waisting my time in EURUSD, 99.5% losers, I asked again. I like to be here, there are some good threads and I found for the first time some very profitable traders which provide good hints. I am starting doing prop trading for real, something you can't because you are a DrawDown champ. So stay were you are doing what you do best, bully people.
Ahahaha you are funny. You asked for it dude. You tried to bully me first but check my results now, and you can also read my thread. It's all free btw i am not a salesman like you. Maybe you can learn a thing or two. Shame on you.
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Ahahaha you are funny. You asked for it dude. You tried to bully me first but check my results now, and you can also read my thread. It's all free btw i am not a salesman like you. Maybe you can learn a thing or two. Shame on you.
I don't know what you are doing now. You are always the same. If you made pips with the EURUSD drop, try to remember the only person that was always saying that it had to drop.
Now, that you are here, look above. My post on the XAUUSD 9 hours ago, you would have earned a lot if you had seen it earlier. You may still earn if you open a Sell now.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
{quote} I don't know what you are doing now. You are always the same. If you made pips with the EURUSD drop, try to remember the only person that was always saying that it had to drop. Now, that you are here, look above. My post on the XAUUSD 9 hours ago, you would have earned a lot if you had seen it earlier. You may still earn if you open a Sell now.
I didn't say you were wrong about the market. You were wrong about me and you tried to bully me. I hope you learned your lesson.
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I didn't say you were wrong about the market. You were wrong about me and you tried to bully me. I hope you learned your lesson.
How could I be wrong about you? Are you not a moron anymore? I suspect you will continue to be one your whole life.
Anyway, I prefer to talk about markets than about your peculiarities. Have a good day.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
Quoting JotaP
{quote} How could I be wrong about you? Are you not a moron anymore? I suspect you will continue to be one your whole life. Anyway, I prefer to talk about markets than about your peculiarities. Have a good day.
Look at this bravery! A commercial member, who tries to sell his useless sh*t to people tries to insult me with his 10 percent return track record! My my, you are barely earning more than the inflation haha You are the moron here mate. If you had 3 digit iq you would make more than 10% on any investment without even bothering to trade. Not to mention you are b*nding over to FTMO. Anyways, be careful when you bully people. Look at yourself first.
  • Post #40
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:08pm Nov 23, 2021 10:55pm | Edited at 11:08pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Look at this bravery! A commercial member, who tries to sell his useless sh*t to people tries to insult me with his 10 percent return track record! My my, you are barely earning more than the inflation haha You are the moron here mate. If you had 3 digit iq you would make more than 10% on any investment without even bothering to trade. Not to mention you are b*nding over to FTMO. Anyways, be careful when you bully people. Look at yourself first.
I see the reason you came here.
Last time we talked you had 3 months trading, 61% DrawDown , 13% Profit, 1 month with losses and you were very happy.
Now you doubled your capital and you are even more happy.
But you are a typical bad trader, you will blow your account any time soon. I know, I have been there, I have taken $500 to $30000 in less than 2 months then lost half of it in the time it takes to pick up a beer from the fridge.
Of course, you can always ask mum some more money to open another account and continue your fun showing off for losers in the EURUSD and Cable threads.
This until your mum tells you to make a living.
Capisce, student?
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
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