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Rearden's Journal

  • #661
  • Nov 21, 2021 5:50pm Nov 21, 2021 5:50pm
Weekly Summary 15 Nov to 19 Nov
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  • #662
  • Nov 22, 2021 9:58pm Nov 22, 2021 9:58pm
23 Nov Short bias down move

The price came down without hitting the PO yesterday. I placed another PO near t the weekly open area.
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  • #663
  • Nov 23, 2021 4:58pm Nov 23, 2021 4:58pm
24 Nov 2021 Short bias down move

The price came 2 pips close to my PO but missed to trigger that. I see that the market has made a equal lows and then a higher low. The MA is to the downside. Also the market has poked to the down side. I placed a PO near the ystr highs. I will close the trade if the market holds above the weekly open area and look for another short near the white line.
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  • #664
  • Nov 24, 2021 4:45pm Nov 24, 2021 4:45pm
25 Nov 2021 Short bias, Down move

The price didn't retrace to my PO ystr as well and came down. After the break down of the 1532 area, the price is in a trend mode. So the retraces is not very deep. I have to understand this and look for entries accordingly.

Today, I have placed an entry at the Pivot and just below MA.
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  • #665
  • Nov 25, 2021 4:45pm Nov 25, 2021 4:45pm
26 Nov 2021 Short bias UP move

The price has turned in to an up move. But didn't close above the the MA. Since the price is in a trend mode, I kept the short trades I had. I still have it for today. I will exit when it reaches the 1185 area and find trouble breaking it.

Seeing the daily chart it created a inverted hammer for yesterday. It was the same on Tuesday and there was a break down on Wednesday. Thursday, its again inverted hammer. I will wait to see if it breaks down.
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  • #666
  • Nov 28, 2021 6:13pm Nov 28, 2021 6:13pm
Weekly Summary 22 Nov-26-Nov

The price was near the 2020 June-July consolidation in weekly chart. I was watching out for an action in price which may cause an up move. But I think having missed the trades during first few days of the week, I was too focused on the short that I took on Thursday. It gave clear signs to exit. The biggest issue that I saw in myself this week was that I was aware of these levels but didn't act on it. I didn't exit thinking, what if price follows the trend and goes down again by end of Friday. I will miss the move. So if I exit with a loss or at BE, I will do the mistake of not holding the trade to work out. I think this is also another indication of wanting to be right than profitable.
So if I was thinking on being profitable, I could have noticed that the price is giving signs of going up and exit for BE or small loss. Then Reenter if it gives signs to enter short again.
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  • #667
  • Nov 28, 2021 6:18pm Nov 28, 2021 6:18pm
29 Nov 2021 -Short bias up move

The price has formed a big range of 120+ Pips. I will trade this as per the lessons that I got from the initial days of the exercise where I had traded ranges for few weeks. I will wait for the price to retrace further down before I take any long. Or if it goes up, I will see if it fails at the high for any #1 short with very low risk since its a short Bias week.
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  • #668
  • Nov 28, 2021 6:52pm Nov 28, 2021 6:52pm
Quoting Rearden
Weekly Summary 22 Nov-26-Nov The price was near the 2020 June-July consolidation in weekly chart. I was watching out for an action in price which may cause an up move. But I think having missed the trades during first few days of the week, I was too focused on the short that I took on Thursday. It gave clear signs to exit. The biggest issue that I saw in myself this week was that I was aware of these levels but didn't act on it. I didn't exit thinking, what if price follows the trend and goes down again by end of Friday. I will miss the move. So...
You definitely got too cute with things last week. I expected to see you short on the 23rd (but maybe you weren't at the charts) and then not sure why you didn't just close things down on Thursday since you had some profit on a US holiday and then take Friday off. It's those small decisions that make all the difference.
Be bullish on you.
  • #669
  • Nov 29, 2021 6:39pm Nov 29, 2021 6:39pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} You definitely got too cute with things last week. I expected to see you short on the 23rd (but maybe you weren't at the charts) and then not sure why you didn't just close things down on Thursday since you had some profit on a US holiday and then take Friday off. It's those small decisions that make all the difference.
Hi G,

Thank you for the feedback. Yes. I was looking to get short on the 23rd and placed a PO but the price missed to trigger it by 2 -3 pips. I should have entered on a retrace to the MA but then I didn't do it and waited. I was expecting for a deeper retrace. The same happened for 24th as well. I was disappointed with the continuous missing of those trade which led to the holding of the trades on 25th. As you said these small decision are really important and makes a lot of difference. Especially the context like US holiday and things like that.
  • #670
  • Edited 8:56pm Nov 29, 2021 7:29pm | Edited 8:56pm
30 Nov Short Bias UP move

The price held at the 1257 area and went back up from the MA. But this happened while I was sleeping and away from chart. The price has poked the Weekly open area and also the MA is up. I kept a PO at the MA and also at the previous day low(Edge to middle) . I am expecting a retrace due to the Short bias. I may miss the trade. I will exit the trade it it close below the 1257-50 area. The pivot entry is too close the 1.13 BRN
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  • #671
  • Nov 29, 2021 7:45pm Nov 29, 2021 7:45pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, Thank you for the feedback. Yes. I was looking to get short on the 23rd and placed a PO but the price missed to trigger it by 2 -3 pips. I should have entered on a retrace to the MA but then I didn't do it and waited. I was expecting for a deeper retrace. The same happened for 24th as well. I was disappointed with the continuous missing of those trade which led to the holding of the trades on 25th. As you said these small decision are really important and makes a lot of difference. Especially the context like US holiday and things...
I like how honest you are with yourself..."I was disappointed with missing of trades which led to the holding." I want you to really work on recognizing these feelings in the moment and finding the discipline to step away.

I would also say.. simplify. You've added a few things over the year that aren't really serving you so never forget the basics.
Be bullish on you.
  • #672
  • Nov 29, 2021 8:55pm Nov 29, 2021 8:55pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I like how honest you are with yourself..."I was disappointed with missing of trades which led to the holding." I want you to really work on recognizing these feelings in the moment and finding the discipline to step away. I would also say.. simplify. You've added a few things over the year that aren't really serving you so never forget the basics.
Sure G. Thank you. I will stick to the basic rules of the exercise.
  • #673
  • Edited 9:24pm Nov 29, 2021 9:11pm | Edited 9:24pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Sure G. Thank you. I will stick to the basic rules of the exercise.
Don't discount things you've noticed/learned, but never forget the basics in your evaluation.

Here is the basic trade from today that you mentioned. I saw it had hit the MA when I got home, it was still close, entered, looked for move back to weekly open area. It may continue on, but I grabbed 33pips in a very basic setup. If I were doing the exercise, I'd look at the chart each day, but re-engage next week. Learn to make a profit and then make myself patiently wait for the next opportunity.

As you eluded to, I don't love the pivot, big risk, but the MA with some structure from the overnight allows me to reduce the risk or if I am starting the exercise, I can let it go to failure if it would have moved against. Either way, I'm learning.
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Be bullish on you.
  • #674
  • Nov 30, 2021 6:49am Nov 30, 2021 6:49am
Price cont'd up... the basic rules tell me to wait for it to turn down, so practicing patience. Checking emotions about not trading the up move.
Be bullish on you.
  • #675
  • Nov 30, 2021 8:23am Nov 30, 2021 8:23am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Don't discount things you've noticed/learned, but never forget the basics in your evaluation. Here is the basic trade from today that you mentioned. I saw it had hit the MA when I got home, it was still close, entered, looked for move back to weekly open area. It may continue on, but I grabbed 33pips in a very basic setup. If I were doing the exercise, I'd look at the chart each day, but re-engage next week. Learn to make a profit and then make myself patiently wait for the next opportunity. As you eluded to, I don't love the pivot, big...
Hi G,

Thanks for the chart. Yes I have noticed this pattern(MA+ some structure) working out repeatedly.. especially when the move supports.

Another thing I noticed is that you took profit at weekly open even though you were not doing the exercise. I thought you would be running it. I was thinking about target during my weekly analysis and was thinking to myself that it could go higher especially after seeing the PA in weekly chart. 1. The price is in the consolidation area from June/July Last year. 2. It gave a weekly bullish Pin. 3. MA is UP. 4. You have an up move which happened on Friday.

Yes, I see a consistent approach in taking profit. Its easier to say now why we could have run the trade. But I think since it was a short bias this was the best thing to do for a long trade. We do not know what price does next.
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  • #676
  • Nov 30, 2021 8:35am Nov 30, 2021 8:35am
Quoting gejordan
Price cont'd up... the basic rules tell me to wait for it to turn down, so practicing patience. Checking emotions about not trading the up move.
Thanks for the reminder G. My PO's didn't trigger. I was ok not trading the up move. But in my mind I was contemplating a long from 1.1300 BRN(BRN+ Weekly Open area) or as close to the white line at 1257. The reason was the location on Weekly chart and the recent momentum price has gained to the upside and also the direction of MA.

But yes, this is a short bias week. The price has reached the previous swing highs at the 1365 area now, and it could turn to the downside too. So as per the exercise I have to wait for a #3b or for it to turn to a down move.
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  • #677
  • Nov 30, 2021 8:40am Nov 30, 2021 8:40am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, Thanks for the chart. Yes I have noticed this pattern(MA+ some structure) working out repeatedly.. especially when the move supports. Another thing I noticed is that you took profit at weekly open even though you were not doing the exercise. I thought you would be running it. I was thinking about target during my weekly analysis and was thinking to myself that it could go higher especially after seeing the PA in weekly chart. 1. The price is in the consolidation area from June/July Last year. 2. It gave a weekly bullish Pin. 3. MA...
Well, I showed you the trade yesterday to try and help motivate you back to positive trades after a mental letdown AND to show you this is all you need to do. In interest of disclosure, I did run the trade from the pivot... your instincts are good. What you described is all correct in both cases. Absolutely the target could be higher AND because of short bias in the exercise wise to not let it run as well and take what is still a substantial return in a non-exercise account. You can do this.

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Be bullish on you.
  • #678
  • Nov 30, 2021 8:46am Nov 30, 2021 8:46am
And yes, looking at the weekly could support a run to 1.15ish. Looking at daily, same thing OR a fakeout from here and slowly turn itself back to the down side. The secret is to not care either way and plan smartly for it.
Be bullish on you.
  • #679
  • Nov 30, 2021 6:51pm Nov 30, 2021 6:51pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Well, I showed you the trade yesterday to try and help motivate you back to positive trades after a mental letdown AND to show you this is all you need to do. In interest of disclosure, I did run the trade from the pivot... your instincts are good. What you described is all correct in both cases. Absolutely the target could be higher AND because of short bias in the exercise wise to not let it run as well and take what is still a substantial return in a non-exercise account. You can do this. {image}
Nice. Thank you G for the clarification and chart.
  • #680
  • Nov 30, 2021 7:14pm Nov 30, 2021 7:14pm
01 Dec 2021 Short Bias UP move

The price went down to the white line area during the news. It also held below the MA. The direction of MA was UP and also it was coming up from the white line. So I didn't take the #3b trade due to the distance to the swing highs at the 1380. I was looking for a deeper retrace to the area it broke down (1340ish area) during news. So today morning When the price failed to go higher, I took a #3b trade. I placed the target at the white line. it May go lower, but since I am in the exercise I will stick to the area from where it came up from.

Cons: The direction of MA is still UP. I will watch out for a close above the 1350 area and exit because its an up move and MA is still up. The price has also held above the MA and the weekly open area
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