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vsa with Malcolm

  • #34,981
  • Nov 19, 2021 2:37pm Nov 19, 2021 2:37pm
Hello Anotan, great stuff you posting here. Is that your broker's normal volume indicator? IF not, do you mind sharing it .. Thanks


Quoting Anotan
AJ short. If you look at the expansion bar, the biggest increase in volume of the day. Look at how big that increase in volume is. That huge increase tells you that professional money is active, which that is what we do. We follow professional money. {image}
  • #34,982
  • Nov 21, 2021 12:38pm Nov 21, 2021 12:38pm
Quoting Danku
Hello Anotan, great stuff you posting here. Is that your broker's normal volume indicator? IF not, do you mind sharing it .. Thanks {quote}
Looks like standard MT4 Volumes mate
  • #34,983
  • Nov 21, 2021 12:44pm Nov 21, 2021 12:44pm
On Anotan's chart, it is a clear Failed Test, but see what i have on my chart, same bar ...

Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Looks like standard MT4 Volumes mate
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  • #34,984
  • Edited 3:58pm Nov 21, 2021 1:08pm | Edited 3:58pm
Quoting Danku
On Anotan's chart, it is a clear Failed Test, but see what i have on my chart, same bar ... {quote} {image}
They look pretty much identical mate, plus volume reading is similair, unless im missing something?
  • #34,985
  • Nov 21, 2021 4:03pm Nov 21, 2021 4:03pm
Quoting Danku
On Anotan's chart, it is a clear Failed Test, but see what i have on my chart, same bar ... {quote} {image}
It's a clear Test (failed) on yours too.

But let's back up for a minute.

As I have stated numerous times, I believe that VZA is nothing more than a distinction without a difference. That's. not what this post is really about, but I thought it needed to be said.

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1. Okay, on this H1 chart we see a climactic volume bar on a DOWN bar that closes off its lows with the next bar level. This is strength. We don't know this at the time, but the strength is only enough to knock the market sideways-not change its behavior. And as previously noted, the prior UP bar was a bar of weakness.

A Trigger Number Matrix is then drawn on the chart on this Climatic volume bar. TG lite draws a Trigger Number Matrix (without the HB) on the most recent climatic volume bar. It turns out that this same level becomes Yesterday's Trigger Number Matrix used today in VZA. So anybody using VSA would be looking at the exact same Matrix as somebody using VZA (forgetting for the moment about different data packets can result in different volumes).

2. After moving sideways for a bit, a narrow range DOWN bar on volume less than the previous two bars appears. This is a Test. The next interval is UP so the Test is confirmed.

3-4. The very next interval is a WRB that closes lower than the close of the Test bar. This is No Result From a Test. This is also a 2 Bar Reversal. This is your first signal to get short. This is the current entry talked most about in TG webinars as it is a close below the lower Trigger Number.

5. However, this is entry is easier to spot for most VSA traders. It's an Up Thrust into HB that confirms with the next bar DOWN. And this DOWN bar is again breaking below the low of the Trigger Matrix.

6. No Buying Pressure which is confirmed with the next bar DOWN.

7. This is a Test. The volume is high and the next bar is DOWN. Both of which tell us independently, and certainly in conjunction, the Test has failed.

So if you were waiting for price to breach the low of the Trigger Number Matrix and then move back up towards it on No Demand, it moved back towards it on a No Demand equivalent, No Buying Pressure, and for good measure Tested and failed.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #34,986
  • Edited Nov 22, 2021 3:51pm Nov 21, 2021 4:39pm | Edited Nov 22, 2021 3:51pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} It's a clear Test (failed) on yours too. But let's back up for a minute. As I have stated numerous times, I believe that VZA is nothing more than a distinction without a difference. That's. not what this post is really about, but I thought it needed to be said. {image} 1. Okay, on this H1 chart we see a climactic volume bar on a DOWN bar that closes off its lows with the next bar level. This is strength. We don't know this at the time, but the strength is only enough to knock the market sideways-not change its behavior. And as previously...
Good post mate, I was watching a video today of GH and Grigory live trading the sharpshooter rules. Pretty interesting.

Although I guess thats where the benefits of Smart Centre comes into play, as you could be manually watching for a sharpshooter entry to play out, but if it doesnt materialise then you could miss other setups.... unless youve got the software to ping them up.
  • #34,987
  • Nov 22, 2021 1:12am Nov 22, 2021 1:12am
HG, Always a pleasure reading the way you look and analyze the market. Great info as always and keep them coming .. still learning but all makes sense .. cheers

Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} It's a clear Test (failed) on yours too. But let's back up for a minute. As I have stated numerous times, I believe that VZA is nothing more than a distinction without a difference. That's. not what this post is really about, but I thought it needed to be said. {image} 1. Okay, on this H1 chart we see a climactic volume bar on a DOWN bar that closes off its lows with the next bar level. This is strength. We don't know this at the time, but the strength is only enough to knock the market sideways-not change its behavior. And as previously...
  • #34,988
  • Edited 9:30am Nov 23, 2021 3:47am | Edited 9:30am
GBPAUD

This was a loss I took yesterday just after NY open.

I noticed climactic action on H1, so I moved down to M15 to mark off the high of the trigger bar and look for a test.

Im not too sure if this was a mistake or not but I anticipated that I might not see the test on M15 so I decided to drop down to M5 and look for a test there.

M5

1. Up bar after the stopping action which confirmed the SOS.

2. Low volume test bar which tested the bottom half of the trigger bar.

3. Up bar on increased spread which confirmed a successful test.

4. Another low volume test which tested the upper half of the trigger bar. This gave me some confidence that the whole trigger bar had been tested for supply.

I placed a buy stop at the high of the previous bar. Stop Loss below Bar 3.

I was triggered on the next bar and stopped out on the following bar after.


There was a few things I didn't do which could have kept me out of the trade.

1. I didnt wait for a trend change/MA turnover on my entry timeframe.

2. Although most of the trigger bar range was tested, I didn't wait for the high to be broken and tested so my entry was possibly too aggressive.

3. There was a potential support that could have acted as resistance (orange line). Im not too sure if this would be too rigid a rule though as we would have to break through many " Trend Clusters" to reach a potential target anyway.

4. My stop placement was potentially too tight. Other SL options would be at the low of Test Bar 1 (27 pips), or the low of the UHV Bar (36 pips) Both of which seemed a bit excessive.

5. From what I can see, Bar 5 provided a No Supply entry which was above the trigger and the MA but im thinking the SL would have got tagged here also on the move down if I use the previous swing low for stop placement.

6. Bar 6 seemed to be the highest probability entry after the high volume shakeout and background strength and would have got a 2RR trade out of it. Only thing that bothers me about this is that price rejected that resistance several times before this entry.

So I guess in hindsight there probably wasnt a safe way to get into this move.
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  • #34,989
  • Nov 23, 2021 8:46pm Nov 23, 2021 8:46pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
.... 5. From what I can see, Bar 5 provided a No Supply entry which was above the trigger and the MA but im thinking the SL would have got tagged here also on the move down if I use the previous swing low for stop placement. 6. Bar 6 seemed to be the highest probability entry after the high volume shakeout and background strength and would have got a 2RR trade out of it.
Great work. For what it's worth, I'm taking a loss on this chart too.

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As to be expected, I have added HB to the Tigger Number Matrix. This is a very important level for me. Not only did Wyckoff talk about HB, but in a recent TG webinar, Gregory was asked if he (and the TG team only traded at the extremes. i.e. the Trigger Number High and the Trigger Number Low. Gregory said they tend to place their stops on the opposite side (so if they are going short, they place the stop just above the trigger number High. He went on to say in order to reduce risk, they take trades "inside" the Zone. I submit that at least one of those "inside" places is HB (the 75% and 25% trigger number levels are two others, but let's leave those alone for now).

Note that after the Ultra High Volume interval, price never manages to close below HB. This is usually a good clue that the market wants to go higher from the strength that appeared on the Ultra High Volume DOWN interval.

But that does not constitute a change in behavior in itself. The change in behavior happens when price closes above the MA. Accordingly, my entry would be at #5. This is a great entry. Price has moved out of Zone/Matrix and pulled back to the Trigger Number High on low volume. I would take a long here 100 times out of 100. Note: 1. I would not have that orange line on my chart to dissuade me 2. I have not mentioned multiple timeframe alignment 3. I would also need the Volume Pressure gauge to be green.

But here's the rub. I would place my stop at just below either the 75% Trigger Number or just below HB. In either case, I would get stopped out, but in both cases, my risk is less than it would be by placing the stop just below the Trigger Number Low.

I am never going to enter/reenter on the beautiful Spring at HB. Price is on the wrong side of the MA. For those of you that follow SyntaxError's posts, this is an entry he has spoken about more than once. So there are some VSA traders out there that would have caught this entry. I'm just not one of them.

#6 is another great entry that I can't take because it's not touching any Trigger Numbers. I want my signal bar to share at least one tick with the trigger levels (there are some exceptions, but this is not one of them).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #34,990
  • Nov 24, 2021 1:11am Nov 24, 2021 1:11am
... great work
  • #34,991
  • Edited 1:47am Nov 24, 2021 1:19am | Edited 1:47am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Great work. For what it's worth, I'm taking a loss on this chart too. {image} As to be expected, I have added HB to the Tigger Number Matrix. This is a very important level for me. Not only did Wyckoff talk about HB, but in a recent TG webinar, Gregory was asked if he (and the TG team only traded at the extremes. i.e. the Trigger Number High and the Trigger Number Low. Gregory said they tend to place their stops on the opposite side (so if they are going short, they place the stop just above the trigger number High. He went on to say in...
Cheers mate, another solid post.

Just to confirm, the orange line was the current HVC of the H1 bar that just closed and reached into fresh ground (which I forgot to mention), this is what initially caught my attention.
After I saw this I went down to M5 to find the actual trigger bar responsible.

I get what you mean mate, technically it wasnt a "sharpshooter" (in trend trade), It was more a reversal of that H1 leg so maybe could be classed as a "TopBot" trade?

Thats interesting that you mention Grigory and GH talking about stop placement/risk, that really got me thinking.......
Personally I use "risk based position sizing" so regardless of the stop loss size my risk is always the same, for this evaluation account its set at 1% risk. I use the Trade Manager by Investsoft that makes this easy so that I dont have to do the maths when having to jump in a trade as its already pre-set.

Its funny because when watching the youtube trades Gavin uses the infinity platform which makes it slightly difficult to interpret where he has actually placed his stop loss because the trade itself is not marked on his chart.

But I did catch a video where the two of them are trading on MT5, and Grigory calls out a trade which they both take. They were using "sharpshooter" rules.

What surprised me was the stop loss distance of Grigorys trade, it was a long trade and the stop loss was below a massive UHV trigger bar which was a huge distance away for being a 1 minute chart. (I will try to find the video later today and post a screenshot)

So your comment has made the pieces come together abit more, and maybe explains GH and Grigorys success rate......
I notice gavin is very tight with his trade management, so I wonder if big stops coupled with tight/twitchy management means a much higher success rate because maybe they are risking more upfront than they win because they are closing out trades based on 1 minute vsa signals, negative RR ratio? therefore a trade with a 20 pip stop might be closed out at 7 pips of profit and classed as a successfull trade, then onto the next one.

It would be really handy if Gavin would use the tradingview Long/Short tool on his chart to mark off the trade for everyone to see..... I wonder if there is a reason he doesnt do this? Perhaps he doesnt know the tool exists? I wouldnt like to think so because I surely he would be clued up on Tradingview beforehand.
  • #34,992
  • Nov 24, 2021 2:23am Nov 24, 2021 2:23am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} They were using "sharpshooter" rules. What surprised me was the stop loss distance of Grigorys trade, it was a long trade and the stop loss was below a massive UHV trigger bar which was a huge distance away for being a 1 minute chart. (I will try to find the video later today and post a screenshot)
Here is the screenshot of the trade.

The chart shown is Grigory's, his stop loss was below the low on the chart which is out-with the charts view (but I did mark a line above for a rough idea to indicate).

Gavin's original stop loss was at the same place but he did move it up to the area shown after he noticed a couple of strong/purple "trend clusters"

Whats interesting to me is that Grigorys stop loss is just over 20 pips on EURUSD, It was also coming up to the "London Fix".

20+ pips? Surely thats the kind of stop loss you would use for an intraday move, and not a quick end of session scalp?

But I guess that if your strike rate is high then this is a pretty valid way of management, plus it also gives room to close out the trade if it gives some opposing signals.

I dont know if any of you guys know of The Scruffy Trader from the UK, this kind of stop placement kind of reminds me of his style where he will put his stop loss miles away (lets say 50 pips) but he will start scaling out of his trade at 15, then 20, then 25 pips for a totally negative RR ratio but with a 90% strike rate.


Now we could argue that this is totally valid and could be classed as an "advanced" way of trade management which is fine, but..... why are they doing this in the mentorship videos that are supposed to be for beginners?
The "sharpshooter" guide itself says that you should be aiming for 1:2 RR or 1:1 at a bare minumum any thing less than that could be negative on the account over time.

Was Grigory really looking to target 40 pips (2R) or even 20 pips (1R)? Isnt that quite a big target when your watching 1 minute bars and being twitchy about opposing signals?
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  • #34,993
  • Nov 24, 2021 4:53am Nov 24, 2021 4:53am
Here is a "Medium Term Trend" indicator for anyone thats interested.

I noticed that the Tradeguiders Medium Term Trend lines up exactly with the 2xATR stops.

So managed to find an ATR histogram which is the exact same as Tradeguider.

Settings to use are ATR-2 and Bar Width-9.

Now just to work out what the Volume thermometer is .

Guaranteed it will be something really simple.

"Tradeguider Diamonds are based on a moving average that looks at relative volume".......(Actually Just a colour changing 20SMA)

Tradeguider Medium Term Trend.....(Actually just a 2xATR Histogram)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ATR- Stops histo (mtf + alerts).mq4   38 KB | 427 downloads
  • #34,994
  • Nov 24, 2021 7:04am Nov 24, 2021 7:04am
Quoting Paulscaff1
Here is a "Medium Term Trend" indicator for anyone thats interested. I noticed that the Tradeguiders Medium Term Trend lines up exactly with the 2xATR stops. So managed to find an ATR histogram which is the exact same as Tradeguider. Settings to use are ATR-2 and Bar Width-9. Now just to work out what the Volume thermometer is . Guaranteed it will be something really simple. "Tradeguider Diamonds are based on a moving average that looks at relative volume".......(Actually Just a colour changing 20SMA) Tradeguider Medium Term Trend.....(Actually...
interesting observation and development accordingly. thanks for sharing. did you benchmark it against TG? as you seem to follow their content nowadays.
  • #34,995
  • Nov 24, 2021 7:16am Nov 24, 2021 7:16am
Quoting attique08
{quote} interesting observation and development accordingly. thanks for sharing. did you benchmark it against TG? as you seem to follow their content nowadays.
Yeah mate, what happened was I noticed it a while ago when Malcolm was posting, what I noticed was that when the 2xATR stops flipped, then so did the "Medium Term Trend Histogram".

I will find a screenshot to show the comparison.

I just did a random search today for "ATR Histogram" and straight away one popped up from forex station.
  • #34,996
  • Edited 9:25am Nov 24, 2021 7:25am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting attique08
{quote} interesting observation and development accordingly. thanks for sharing. did you benchmark it against TG? as you seem to follow their content nowadays.
I tried to find one of the more zoomed out charts.

Ive marked the changes in green. So once a bar closes past the 2xATR stops (blue) and flips over, you will notice the histogram changes colour.
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  • #34,997
  • Nov 24, 2021 7:31am Nov 24, 2021 7:31am
Interesting history about japanese DayTrader who has got insane profit of 34 Millions USD by shorting futures Nikkei225.

Total Short position 1700 contracts from 12 August - 24 August 2015
Buy position 970 contracts from 24 August - 25 August 2015

here is the link :

Inserted Video


Interesting Question is, is it possible as VSA trader to recognize the possible down movement?
luckily I still got the daily chart (D1) at the time from my broker, I would say it is possible to recognize the events before the Nikkei225 falling down.
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  • #34,998
  • Nov 24, 2021 7:59am Nov 24, 2021 7:59am
Hi guys again, sorry if someone felt bad of my comments ,but I am trying to be better at trading, I am learning VSA but it doesn't work well for me. I don't know what should I change, but a few of you ignored me because I wrote something. You are angry ok, but you could understand me.
but it doesn't work well for me
Daytrader
  • #34,999
  • Nov 24, 2021 9:08am Nov 24, 2021 9:08am
Quoting trezo
Hi guys again, sorry if someone felt bad of my comments ,but I am trying to be better at trading, I am learning VSA but it doesn't work well for me. I don't know what should I change, but a few of you ignored me because I wrote something. You are angry ok, but you could understand me. but it doesn't work well for me
All you can do is keep practicing and studying mate.
  • #35,000
  • Nov 24, 2021 1:22pm Nov 24, 2021 1:22pm
Change timeframe didn't do anything for me, I told that timeframe is not the problem.
Daytrader
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