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The Swamp

  • #92,561
  • Nov 19, 2021 5:51am Nov 19, 2021 5:51am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i was expecting some BS talk about USD Debt Ceiling - and dollar weakness. been wrong almost 2 weeks now. time for a break

German 10y y going down ... while inflation to the roof.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,562
  • Nov 19, 2021 5:52am Nov 19, 2021 5:52am
Quoting codyt.b
does anyone see Germany issuing a lockdown??
i read into more parts of Europe for i.e on Monday Austria.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,563
  • Nov 19, 2021 7:17am Nov 19, 2021 7:17am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i read into more parts of Europe for i.e on Monday Austria.
so you now have lockdown at least inflation will be transitory

absolutely the perfect storm
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,564
  • Nov 19, 2021 7:22am Nov 19, 2021 7:22am
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_Three_Important_Reasons_Why_The_USD_Will_Continue_To_Rise_-_UBS.pdf   173 KB | 146 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_USDRUB_To_Drop_10%_As_Pair_Set_To_Return_To_Fair_Value_-_HSBC.pdf   426 KB | 180 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_We_Expect_Recent_CAD_Softness_To_Be_Short-Lived_-_MUFG.pdf   124 KB | 169 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_We_Think_Real_Yields_Are_Busy_Bottoming_Out_-_TS_Lombard.pdf   392 KB | 162 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_With_Debt_At_Almost_350%_of_GDP_The_BoC_Will_Struggle_To_Deliver_On_Priced_Hike.pdf   285 KB | 185 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Insight_-_With_UK_CPI_Set_To_Peak_Around_5.4%_The_BoE_Is_Set_To_Hike_Dec_-_Deutsche_Bank.pdf   248 KB | 193 downloads
  • #92,565
  • Nov 19, 2021 7:26am Nov 19, 2021 7:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} the only argument for transitory camp is assets correction fast. (crude going down again today) dollar strength should also help fight inflation,
Yeah oils wise at this moment. The % movement in oil is so much wilder. compared to a currency % move.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,566
  • Nov 19, 2021 7:28am Nov 19, 2021 7:28am
Quoting codyt.b
does anyone see Germany issuing a lockdown??
yes
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,567
  • Nov 19, 2021 8:14am Nov 19, 2021 8:14am
1312 may be a spot.. looking deeper..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,568
  • Nov 19, 2021 8:17am Nov 19, 2021 8:17am
here we go again


GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER EXCLUDES NATIONAL GENERAL LOCKDOWN:BILD
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,569
  • Nov 19, 2021 8:22am Nov 19, 2021 8:22am
Quoting gatorinla
1312 may be a spot.. looking deeper..
1312 may be a soft R.. 1318/22 has some R value. .. Possible good area below 1369. For a step pattern. Look hard here using your system 1312 area,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,570
  • Nov 19, 2021 8:34am Nov 19, 2021 8:34am
Quoting DMA Trader
here we go again GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER EXCLUDES NATIONAL GENERAL LOCKDOWN:BILD
it stopped exactlu near 1.132 R
algo trading don't care about report. hopefully they don't come saying BILD was bs
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,571
  • Nov 19, 2021 10:18am Nov 19, 2021 10:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1312 may be a soft R.. 1318/22 has some R value. .. Possible good area below 1369. For a step pattern. Look hard here using your system 1312 area,
1318/23.. With that hammer looking 4h. Shorts may have a problem with a close above 1318 or 1323. Below 1311 may be better for shorts. But candle wise once pa is above the hammer, its bullish. Bullish into R that is being tested now. I dont know if R will hold or not. If it doesn't, 1369/74 area may be re-visited. I tend to go with the trend. But nobody knows the outcome till its history.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,572
  • Nov 19, 2021 10:30am Nov 19, 2021 10:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1318/23.. With that hammer looking 4h. Shorts may have a problem with a close above 1318 or 1323. Below 1311 may be better for shorts. But candle wise once pa is above the hammer, its bullish. Bullish into R that is being tested now. I dont know if R will hold or not. If it doesn't, 1369/74 area may be re-visited. I tend to go with the trend. But nobody knows the outcome till its history. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_qV-g1jZow&t=16s {image}
A lot of dynamic R above the Tested 1323 17/18 12. and so forth.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,573
  • Nov 19, 2021 10:40am Nov 19, 2021 10:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A lot of dynamic R above the Tested 1323 17/18 12. and so forth. {image}
LC was higher. This is a mixed bag. LC may be less important than before Brexit. The day is above yesterday (bull side). The week is lower (bear side). So I dont know if bulls will get back to 1374 again. I just need to respect the year's end trend. They last into Jan and Feb often.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,574
  • Nov 19, 2021 11:20am Nov 19, 2021 11:20am
Quoting gatorinla
pick a spot. we got 5.5 weeks to drop 416 pips. 1369/78 area may be a place to consider shorting. 15.5 pips per day average at low. Or a adr of 75. at 1369 the drop could be 521 pips. Or 19 pips per day. 95 pips per week average. Of course the higher it rises // The more adr it requires to reach 1.0848 by years end. To close 2021 {image}
Still time.. 5 levels and 6 weeks to do it. I may be conservative. This one is time related for 1.0928. For years end. I posted 1.0848 a few times when much higher. I may just be a little more conservative and use 1.0928 now. Because it may support some. That's good enough for me. Although the year close may be below it. Others 1.0848 1.0635. 1.0525 .. Where it struggles now 1315 is a level on another to chart. I use this one because its more time related. The first hit this week at 1262.7 is on this chart.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,575
  • Nov 19, 2021 11:35am Nov 19, 2021 11:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Still time.. 5 levels and 6 weeks to do it. I may be conservative. This one is time related for 1.0928. For years end. I posted 1.0848 a few times when much higher. I may just be a little more conservative and use 1.0928 now. Because it may support some. That's good enough for me. Although the year close may be below it. Others 1.0848 1.0635. 1.0525 .. Where it struggles now 1315 is a level on another to chart. I use this one because its more time related. The first hit this week at 1262.7 is on this chart. {image}
1262 is 75% mark to 1.0928.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,576
  • Nov 19, 2021 6:23pm Nov 19, 2021 6:23pm
Quoting Boulder
wow..I know some trade this one.,,UsdTry, {image}
This is country.. The feeling, the emotion. Close your eyes, the blind can see. Timeless emotion. Not a mood, heartfelt emotion.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,577
  • Nov 19, 2021 9:54pm Nov 19, 2021 9:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} EG Week close above .8435 may be bullish. Day support bounced it here. The week close may hot stove above 8435. {image} {image}
One day
  • #92,578
  • Nov 20, 2021 2:54am Nov 20, 2021 2:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Still time.. 5 levels and 6 weeks to do it. I may be conservative. This one is time related for 1.0928. For years end. I posted 1.0848 a few times when much higher. I may just be a little more conservative and use 1.0928 now. Because it may support some. That's good enough for me. Although the year close may be below it. Others 1.0848 1.0635. 1.0525 .. Where it struggles now 1315 is a level on another to chart. I use this one because its more time related. The first hit this week at 1262.7 is on this chart....
The week closed below. 1318 and 1312; The downside 1.1x looks like its coming. Each blue line, is more than a week. In the end of the year scenario. It could drop and never look back. It could also take 6 weeks (Dec 31). The levels are like timing it in a average pa move. Yes, I may be full of shit. Predicting the future is a fools game. It may bounce or not back to 1312/18 again. It needs to close below 1262.7. To be able to use the year end timeline of 1.0928. Before it 1274, has some S value. Chart 2.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,579
  • Nov 20, 2021 8:23pm Nov 20, 2021 8:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The week closed below. 1318 and 1312; The downside 1.1x looks like its coming. Each blue line, is more than a week. In the end of the year scenario. It could drop and never look back. It could also take 6 weeks (Dec 31). The levels are like timing it in a average pa move. Yes, I may be full of shit. Predicting the future is a fools game. It may bounce or not back to 1312/18 again. It needs to close below 1262.7. To be able to use the year end timeline of 1.0928. Before it 1274, has some S value. Chart 2. {image} {image}
Not at all your blessed your simply preparing for a future scenario. All the cliche's where to prove a point and then taken out of context as they gained popularity always prepare and never stop moving your chess pieces..
  • #92,580
  • Nov 21, 2021 12:00am Nov 21, 2021 12:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The week closed below. 1318 and 1312; The downside 1.1x looks like its coming. Each blue line, is more than a week. In the end of the year scenario. It could drop and never look back. It could also take 6 weeks (Dec 31). The levels are like timing it in a average pa move. Yes, I may be full of shit. Predicting the future is a fools game. It may bounce or not back to 1312/18 again. It needs to close below 1262.7. To be able to use the year end timeline of 1.0928. Before it 1274, has some S value. Chart 2. {image} {image}
I second your opinion. Infact if price remains below 1.1364 (50% mark of my WK candle), i will still stack sell stops on top of my current run. In my TA as ive mentioned too on my shouts, we should be saying goodbye to 1.13 zonal or soon. I may be wrong though, just my personal bias.
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
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