EURUSD only

Thank you very much Mitiblotch ! Yesterday was a well above average day for me. Most of the time I lose over half my trades, but that means nothing, as you know. It is all part of the game of risking small and going big.

Cheers fellow trader !


This last 1375 reach was what I was afraid of. Bulls still managed to hold on tight. Momentum building. 90 it most probably is, unless bears hold on just as tight under its 1384 resistance. Even if least probable. I am staying in, but have to adapt and tighten SL accordingly :

SL 1389

Who knows?!

Price pushing hard to reach "McDonald's" (W1) target! 1.1300-1.1270/ (0.618 fib ret. level.)
But now the question remains how soon is this going to happen? Price facing resistance and maybe a slight pull back before continuing downwards. Its still the 2nd day of the week!

Safe!

Quick Update for my Weekly S/R Levels..

The harmonic BULLISH BUTTERFLY pattern completed around 1.1401-1.1357... From here, many harmonic traders will start to line up their buy orders to trade the pattern with targets to 1.1750 and 1.20.. We can expect stop hunting 10 to 30 pips below 1.1357 before it goes up..

Based on chart below: 1.13435 is nearest support..
Bulls have to climb above weekly:1.1395 but a climb above daily:1.1413 would be much better..

More Then 500 Pips in 3 Months Starting from September

Yellow & Aqua Monthly and
White Yearly Downside

EU session volatility welcome !!

Now moved SL at BE, will have to reenter from above probably... Lets see where this volatility dance takes us ! What do you say Ata ?! Nice to be on the dance floor with you all !

Good Morning Dealers


I am still there with my Longs and will go through my pending buys if price goes down


Trade Safe
Happy Trading

Taking advantage of volatility in momentum, moving sl to 1.13658, securing 16 pips

Possible double bottom to watch for now

From the very long term view 1.12 seems to be a sweet spot. Would look kind of unfinished if it turned here from the perspective of those lines.

Price is firmly in my by-zone ( crossed my blue line - 1.1434 and is testing my green line - 1.1359). As you can see below, price has returned home to where the move commenced in 2020. End of this cycle, beginging of a new one. Cycles are initially bullish when they start. Buying begins. 61.8% fib level is also key monthly area.

Price could turn around anywhere from here to 1.1227, 1.12013. lets see how this goes. All the best.

Nic9man long time no see!!!! I thought of you more than once since I last saw you long ago! Especially when someone talks fundamentals ! I always tell myself, Nic would have an answer and one that I could perhaps understand !

Nice chart. I also think it will be a sweet spot if we get there. And more volatility or indecision the second it gets in the 1270-1330, major levels of battle on the monthly.

Mate, nice to read you.

Just saw that actually 1.15 is also a sweet spot (dotted lines). So there is a remaining possibility that this month closes above 1.15, which would the intramonth move make this a fake breakout from the 1.15 very long term supports.

In DXY a reversal would look promising if the week closed below 95.40.

A Repeat Scenario?? H4.

I wonder if we see 1.13 today after retail sales. This thing is getting so depressing on all time frames that there has to be a meaningful bounce. I am not talking about 30 pips but 100 to 150 pip retracement. Things do not move in one direction in the markets and this is getting a little disorderly.

I think personally that the markets are getting ahead of them self. Betting on a rate hike in July and factoring in 2,5 hikes before the mid-term election is something that I think is unlikely. That would infuriate the Democrats and the narrative would be that the Fed is influencing the elections in favor of Republicans.

I am watching the 1.13 area for a potential buy.

I am targetting 1.1332 today. That should be a sitting duck, but time will tell.

Haha, thanks mate, also great to see your posts back here!

To be honest all this economic reasoning does oftentimes not bring much forecasting power for the short-term. One can always argue both ways and in the end positioning seems to be decisive. BUT, in case you want to hear my view you are of course welcome to proceed reading..

Obvisously the market wants to play it like in 2014 as rising yield differentials between US and EU point to a hawkish FED compared to a dovish ECB. YTD the US 5Y yield rallied from 0,4% to 1,25%, while the EU 5Y rate only went from about -0,5% to -0,1%. While the US is expected to start hiking in 2022 the EU is expected to remain more or less at hold until at least 2024, making the euro kind of stuck in a zero rate environment, just like the yen. Personally, however, I am not sure if the situation is comparable to 2014 because real interest rates do currently deliver a different picture with US inflation running more than 2% above EU inflation. Sure the inflation differential might fade, making US real rates look more favorable, but with the inflation fading the FED would most probably delay rate hikes and come across more dovish. So this would not be beneficial for the USD. On the other hand even higher inflation would also be harmful for the USD in the medium-term as it would oviously lose its purchasing power at a faster pace. Actually US inflation was above eurozone inflation most of the time in the last decade, so that the OECD purchasing power parity (or big mac index) has risen from around 1.27 in 2014 to above 1.45 in 2021, which makes quite a difference. Besides, the market plays the current scenario like a late cycle (yield curves flattening extremely and USD surging), however, in my view this cannot be an economic late cycle as the EU economy will just start to rebound at max potential next year when billions from the Corona rescue package will be spent. The financial cycle is of course already further as stocks have risen to new highs already, however, I do not believe that this is the end of an economic cycle. Hence to me the USD strength and yield curve flattening came to early and should reverse until we really enter the late cycle in economic terms. (A different interpretation of the yield curve flattening would be a policy error, meaning high inflation will force central banks to hike rates on short-notice and reverse it afterwars if the economy collapses. To me this is a tail risk, but with risk-averse investors this tail risk might be significant.)

Sell stop 1.13573 8 pips sl, canceled if 1370 is touched before. Need the steadiest move or not its worth it

my 1382 entry shared earlier just missed its sl by 2 points. Sweet luck, warm feeling.

And retail positioning just won't normalize, according to these statistics retail investors keep flocking into longs. But at some point they have to win, won't they???

rejection so far

If you look at the monthly pics I uploaded that are zoomed out all the way, it seems as if structure is formed as soon as this monthly candle closes (filling the large green candle to the left on the monthly). I’ve locked al my trades in to profit and will hold until we touch 1.12365. [quote=Mitiblotch;13788450]