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There is no Magic Moving Average - You need only one

  • #981
  • Aug 22, 2021 11:27am Aug 22, 2021 11:27am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Michael could you explain how you use volume, I always have been intrigue by it but never been able to find clear rules for it kind regards
In past i use it to confirm price going my way. Volume will increase if price is going the way i will make my position. I must say that i am cut with them all and go a deeper way. I use only some candles to build my trading desicion.
Moving averages work well so far, but the same time a simple long candle can make trouble.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #982
  • Aug 28, 2021 11:08am Aug 28, 2021 11:08am
So this is my first post. I can't create a thread yet but want to get some thoughts on a trading plan. I thought this would be an appropriate place to post as it does use moving averages and a bit of price action. Hopefully I don't get told off or something for posting like this. I've been on and off Forex factory for the past 3 years or so and always wanted to share and discuss all sorts of other ideas. So here we go.

I've been playing around with a very simple concept at the moment. Using moving averages to line up a trade in site and then using price action, candle stick patterns to confirm entry.
Smoothed ma 21
Smoothed ma 50
Smoothed ma 200
15 min tf
I'm sure you've heard these numbers before. I've seen them a few times before. Because of the common nature of these MAs I like to think a lot of other people trade them and that price will obey these with some consistency.
I wait for price to break through 200 and then watch for a retest and pivot confirmed by engulfing, large candle wicks etc. I enter with a 1:1 RR. I then try to find a few more entries whilst the new momentum fresh out of the 200 break is there. Using the 50 ma and the same retesting and pivot confirmed by patterns and wicks.

Now MM wise, I guess I'm trying a somewhat risky idea. I would like thoughts on this part especially. So I've filled out a spreadsheet with adjustable risk and TP. But for now it's 10 pips and 15%. Yes 15%. It's only a small account. Now if you take something as small as £40 and make 1:1 trades for £6 TP and with every 120% increase you recalculate your 15%. So £40, £6 £88, £13.20 £193.60, £29.04 then yes you guessed it,
Your account grows at an unrealistically fast rate haha!

But bare with me. You take £40 for what I call 10 levels(10 recalculations of your risk/120% increase) or 86 trades, you reach a whopping £200,000. Yep. Stupid money. But but but. This is what I need your thoughts on. You take this figure and divide it by 5 years you make £40,000 a year. A very reasonable salary.
By using the 15 min tf you can safely say you might make 3 trades a week. Multiply that by 48 working weeks a year over 5 years. 3x48x5=720 trades. Let's say 716. Now using the progression plan suggested, you can reach £201,500 by the completion of your 86th trade. But you can lose it all in 76 trades. The break even point is 16:14 there abouts. So 716 trades - 86 trades to reach £200k = 630 trades break even. 630/(16+14)=21. So 630-(21x14 losing trades)= 336 winning trades. 336+86=422. (422/716)*100=59%

59% success rate. To make £40,00 a year. Risking only your original £40.

I mean when I say it all, it sounds silly. I'm sure it is. Probably just wishful thinking. So would like thoughts, suggestions. Whether I should just scrap this idea. Whatever really. I have the spreadsheet for trade progress tracking along with a check list to count and tally your trades keeping track of your current success rate and ratio.

Any better strategies to follow for a more reliable 1:1 RR welcome.
  • #983
  • Oct 31, 2021 11:55pm Oct 31, 2021 11:55pm
Thanks for this wonderful thread @ andoseg2

I have been reading up and learning a lot. thanks for sharing your system with us . I have a question....

Find attached is what happened in the EUR/USD pair last Friday. I was on BUY trade because i see it has created a mark up but all of a sudden NEWS came IN and the direction changed.

Could you please have a look at my screen shot and kindly explain to me what happened

Thank you very much for your immense support
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  • #984
  • Nov 15, 2021 4:08pm Nov 15, 2021 4:08pm
Quoting princiano
Thanks for this wonderful thread @ andoseg2 I have been reading up and learning a lot. thanks for sharing your system with us . I have a question.... Find attached is what happened in the EUR/USD pair last Friday. I was on BUY trade because i see it has created a mark up but all of a sudden NEWS came IN and the direction changed. Could you please have a look at my screen shot and kindly explain to me what happened Thank you very much for your immense support {image}

Hi,
Sorry for late answer.
In my opinion, you should closely look at price action. Deep retracements of prior swings near a resistance signify strong supply zone and you shall expect some kind of Distribution there.
You got a deep retracement then a good accumulation wich provided explosive breakout thus confirming Markup Phase, but it was suposed to be a spike (fake out) due to the deep retracement.

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Anyway, on the long term EUR/USD is expected to fall below 1$. This is the bearish wave wich will put $ above EURO for a long time.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #985
  • Nov 16, 2021 9:40am Nov 16, 2021 9:40am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Hi, Sorry for late answer. In my opinion, you should closely look at price action. Deep retracements of prior swings near a resistance signify strong supply zone and you shall expect some kind of Distribution there. You got a deep retracement then a good accumulation wich provided explosive breakout thus confirming Markup Phase, but it was suposed to be a spike (fake out) due to the deep retracement. {image} {image} {image} Anyway, on the long term EUR/USD is expected to fall below 1$. This is the bearish wave wich will put $ above EURO...
Thank you so much sir for your explanations.

I have another question on the attached chart below... what can you said about this chart? I thought there was a decline phase going to happen in H4, and on weekly time frame, price is sitting on a strong resistance level , am i right to have gon sell?

Thanks, as i await your response
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  • #986
  • Nov 16, 2021 9:57am Nov 16, 2021 9:57am
Also look at the below chart, according to price action cycles and levels i think it just complete first cycle up and PRICE reversed going South

I would like to know what happened here

Could you explain please ?
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  • #987
  • Nov 25, 2021 6:08am Nov 25, 2021 6:08am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Hi, Sorry for late answer. In my opinion, you should closely look at price action. Deep retracements of prior swings near a resistance signify strong supply zone and you shall expect some kind of Distribution there. You got a deep retracement then a good accumulation wich provided explosive breakout thus confirming Markup Phase, but it was suposed to be a spike (fake out) due to the deep retracement. {image} {image} {image} Anyway, on the long term EUR/USD is expected to fall below 1$. This is the bearish wave wich will put $ above EURO...
Hi Andoseg,

You mentioned that deep retracements are a sign of low demand for longs and low supply for shorts.

What do you consider a good retracement 50% of the previous move 60% but then you mentioned "deep retarcements of prior swings near a resistance signify strong supply zone and you shall expect some kind of Distribution there".

So Im a bit confused, please could you elaborate more on how to find good pullbacks or retracements

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #988
  • Dec 21, 2021 2:26pm Dec 21, 2021 2:26pm
Deep retracements are those who are testing prior accumulation phases in bulltrend swings or prior distribution phases in beartrend swings.

Deep retracements are also those who exceed 61.8%
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #989
  • Edited 5:12pm Dec 21, 2021 4:23pm | Edited 5:12pm
Quoting andoseg2
Deep retracements are those who are testing prior accumulation phases in bulltrend swings or prior distribution phases in beartrend swings. Deep retracements are also those who exceed 61.8%
All clear know about retracements. I do the same look for price returning to areas of interest.

Currently I'm exiting with a profit target of 2:1 it works for me because is mechanical and takes emotions out of the trade. I use to struggle with exits.

How do you exit? targets previous highs or lows or an extension or projection of previous accumulation/distribution area, basically how do you know when the swing is going to finish

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #990
  • Jan 9, 2022 2:36am Jan 9, 2022 2:36am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} All clear know about retracements. I do the same look for price returning to areas of interest. Currently I'm exiting with a profit target of 2:1 it works for me because is mechanical and takes emotions out of the trade. I use to struggle with exits. How do you exit? targets previous highs or lows or an extension or projection of previous accumulation/distribution area, basically how do you know when the swing is going to finish Thanks Kind regards
I am focused on scalp that mean I aim a 1:1 risk reward first where I can cover my position. if trade develop further in my favor i will use trailing stop.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #991
  • May 26, 2022 3:52pm May 26, 2022 3:52pm
Hello, good day to you all. I am back to the thread where I feel at home and on my radar is GOLD D1/H1 configuration. Accumulation and a potential mark-up building up.
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  • #992
  • Jun 3, 2022 9:36am Jun 3, 2022 9:36am
Greetings
I am reading page 1 for the fourth time! At different times and days, it is sounding easy or just nuggets but not. My little take is re-read the topic and go again on page 1. I found different traders in the info of the few pages. Information here is pivotal to each individual and his or her strategy.
Andoseg2 please keep going and thanks to you.
Will be back in 5years
  • #993
  • Aug 11, 2022 1:23am Aug 11, 2022 1:23am
Quoting sepramfx
Hello, good day to you all. I am back to the thread where I feel at home and on my radar is GOLD D1/H1 configuration. Accumulation and a potential mark-up building up. {image}

it's not yet accumulation
I will post some kind of accumulation to better form your eye
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #994
  • Aug 11, 2022 1:36am Aug 11, 2022 1:36am
Here we go.
Of course nothing is perfect, if you found something wich work for you, go on and continue study what you found. I do not say it is wrong, I say just is different than theory. But Market is very dynamic and there are plenty of pattern variations.
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #995
  • Edited 2:02am Aug 11, 2022 1:45am | Edited 2:02am
Quoting sepramfx
Hello, good day to you all. I am back to the thread where I feel at home and on my radar is GOLD D1/H1 configuration. Accumulation and a potential mark-up building up. {image}
Try to find the situations where you get app. perfect test on Moving Average. In most cases you can grab few pips ( scalp ) if the setup prove to be a bad one later.

Exciting setup with Accumulation and perfect test on Moving Average 24 (2 days) , thus confirming few bars later strong bull trend. (last photo)
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #996
  • Aug 14, 2022 1:25am Aug 14, 2022 1:25am
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #997
  • Edited 2:42am Aug 14, 2022 2:30am | Edited 2:42am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Try to find the situations where you get app. perfect test on Moving Average. In most cases you can grab few pips ( scalp ) if the setup prove to be a bad one later. Exciting setup with Accumulation and perfect test on Moving Average 24 (2 days) , thus confirming few bars later strong bull trend. (last photo) {image} {image}
GBP/USD probable outcome

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #998
  • Sep 5, 2022 6:28am Sep 5, 2022 6:28am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Long term view for Gold. Something wich seem to be accumulation : {image}

Update, 5 years later:

Markup confirmed :
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #999
  • Sep 6, 2022 1:31am Sep 6, 2022 1:31am
Quoting princiano
Also look at the below chart, according to price action cycles and levels i think it just complete first cycle up and PRICE reversed going South I would like to know what happened here Could you explain please ? {image}
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #1,000
  • Sep 6, 2022 1:32am Sep 6, 2022 1:32am
Quoting princiano
{quote} Thank you so much sir for your explanations. I have another question on the attached chart below... what can you said about this chart? I thought there was a decline phase going to happen in H4, and on weekly time frame, price is sitting on a strong resistance level , am i right to have gon sell? Thanks, as i await your response {image}
Switch to a higher timeframe to make sure the Distribution is @ resistance in a bearish trend.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
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