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vsa with Malcolm

  • #34,941
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:25am Nov 13, 2021 5:25am
This one is slighly off-topic perhaps.

How much attention do you guys pay to the daily range and does it affect whether you would take a setup or not?

Ive noticed quite a few entries throughout the week that ive not taken, mainly due to do measuring my risk reward with a sensible stop loss and realising that it doesnt look favourable based on the fact that there isnt "potentially" any room left in the range.

Half of me thinks im being really smart and disciplined by avoiding these setups, the other half says im being to strict for my own good and the adr is simply stopping me from taking valid trades that dont justify the activity level of an intraday trader.

Its funny because I follow a group (that I used to be a part of), they trade a simple support and resistance strategy, quite wide stops. When I see their trades im always concious of what the adr is due to their wide stops but they are pretty successfull. I.E the trades could have a 30 pip stop, with a 60 pip target, and rhe market has already moved say 40 pips (not an accurate example but you get what i mean)

Im thinking that it only serves as a stumbling block and considering deleting it from the chart alltogether. Whilst it maybe handy to know the adr figure in general, maybe I shouldnt be using it as a measure of reward.

Whats you guys thoughts?
  • #34,942
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:54am Nov 13, 2021 5:54am
Quoting Paulscaff1
This one is slighly off-topic perhaps. How much attention do you guys pay to the daily range and does it affect whether you would take a setup or not? Ive noticed quite a few entries throughout the week that ive not taken, mainly due to do measuring my risk reward with a sensible stop loss and realising that it doesnt look favourable based on the fact that there isnt "potentially" any room left in the range. Half of me thinks im being really smart and disciplined by avoiding these setups, the other half says im being to strict for my own good and...
talking about myself, if ADR is reached, until there is a cause (HVZ, HVC, SC/BC, stopping volume, open range and rejection whatever one follows) it will not affect my judgement. i remember i have been kept preoccupied no. of times by this indi that was totally my own fault. my trading psychology was messed up.
  • #34,943
  • Nov 13, 2021 9:09am Nov 13, 2021 9:09am
Quoting attique08
{quote} talking about myself, if ADR is reached, until there is a cause (HVZ, HVC, SC/BC, stopping volume, open range and rejection whatever one follows) it will not affect my judgement. i remember i have been kept preoccupied no. of times by this indi that was totally my own fault. my trading psychology was messed up.
Yeah thats what im thinking aswell.

Adr is going in the back burner for a while I think.
  • #34,944
  • Nov 14, 2021 2:54am Nov 14, 2021 2:54am
Quoting Paulscaff1
This one is slighly off-topic perhaps. How much attention do you guys pay to the daily range and does it affect whether you would take a setup or not? ...
I'm always a little mixed on ADRs, in choppy markets ADR is tends to shrink and trending markets ADRs tends to widen. USDCAD is a prime example, a pair that normally moves 60-70 pips a day hit upwards 130 pips when it was in an aggressive down trend during late September and early October.

If you have a setup on a pair that is getting close to its ADR range you really have to take into account whats going on with the pair. Look at the last 3-4 days and see how price reacted to each day's open. Is price choppy where each day price hangs both above and below its daily open? If so then you probably don't want to take any trades on pairs that are reaching its ADR range. Is price trending? Where each day is staying only above or only below the daily open? Then you can probably can take setups on pairs that are approaching the ADR range, but also keep that in mind. You will want to be quick to get out if price isn't doing what you expect as well these trades probably won't run on you so you'll want to treat them more like short term scalps.
  • #34,945
  • Nov 14, 2021 4:02am Nov 14, 2021 4:02am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote) So if it was a HLC bar it would be closing in the middle which maybe isnt a test as you say as Tom defines it as closing near the high.
Sorry guys I wasnt able to edit this post to add a correction so will just do it here.

Tom also says a test can close in the middle aswell, so I miss quoted in the first post.
  • #34,946
  • Nov 14, 2021 4:12am Nov 14, 2021 4:12am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I'm always a little mixed on ADRs, in choppy markets ADR is tends to shrink and trending markets ADRs tends to widen. USDCAD is a prime example, a pair that normally moves 60-70 pips a day hit upwards 130 pips when it was in an aggressive down trend during late September and early October. If you have a setup on a pair that is getting close to its ADR range you really have to take into account whats going on with the pair. Look at the last 3-4 days and see how price reacted to each day's open. Is price choppy where each day price hangs both...
Yeah makes sense mate, im trying to discount some if the things that stop me taking trades so I can justify my time on the charts.

From the example I used about about the other trading group im thinking potentially "ignorance is bliss" if that makes sense
  • #34,947
  • Edited 1:49am Nov 15, 2021 1:36am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} ... im trying to discount some if the things that stop me taking trades so I can justify my time on the charts....
There is a saying that took me years to understand, and I haven't seen anyone refer to it a long time. It something like: you can either try to be right or try to make money.

What I think it means is that you can can get stuck going in circles trying to revise and custom tailor your trading plan so that you aren't wrong, or you can treat trading like a grind. If you treat trading like a grind and go the RR route, I think if you ran a 2:1 RR you need like a 33% win rate to break even.

I'm curious why you left VZA, you started out there and moved to OR when Malcolm popped in. One of the things that stuck out to me with VZA was that you might have been using too tight of a stop loss. You can use a really tight stop loss with it, but I think that comes after a lot of experience.
  • #34,948
  • Edited 5:14am Nov 15, 2021 5:02am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} There is a saying that took me years to understand, and I haven't seen anyone refer to it a long time. It something like: you can either try to be right or try to make money. What I think it means is that you can can get stuck going in circles trying to revise and custom tailor your trading plan so that you aren't wrong, or you can treat trading like a grind. If you treat trading like a grind and go the RR route, I think if you ran a 2:1 RR you need like a 33% win rate to break even. I'm curious why you left VZA, you started out there and...
Thats a good question about VZA mate, im glad you asked.

The initial appeal of VZA is that I felt that it had some similarities to how I was trading before (using SD zones/order blocks)

Just before Malcolm popped back I was using a combination of marking the zones plus marking the OR. I smugly thought that this would give an extra edge but really it was just a filter to take less trades as there was often 2 opposing rules so I decided at the time to discount the OR and use only VZA.

My plan was to use no timeframes less than M15/M30 and catch intraday moves (much like OR) but I didnt appear to find as many trades as I initially thought, this was using about 12 pairs.

After looking back over Prez38s thread I noticed thats he was using VZA in a slightly more complex way of scalping between the zone internals using M5 entries, and also using M5 to catch external moves, this makes sense as maybe the entry signals wont appear above M5. (Your probably right about the tight stops but I was stuck between some opposing views on stop placement so I guess a large amount of trades would have tested this theory out)

The way I saw it was, that If I want to be active, and justify my time on the charts then I would have to be prepared to go down to M5 to catch enough trades, but wasnt prepared do do this at the time because checking every new M15/M30 bar was already alot of work. (Pres78 is welcome to pull me up on anything that I may have misquoted here as im just going off the top of my head).

Then obviously Malcolm pops back in and starts blasting out trades and the main thing I notice about his method was. Not having to go down to M5, less pairs/instruments needed, and a higher level of activity that justifies his chart time. If there is a move on one of his intruments, he is likely to catch it. So from this I gathered that Malcolm is a session trader which fits into the way that im trading.

After a small amount of forward testing and some live trades I noticed a bit more consistency (not a large amount I know, but psychologically it swung it for me).

Plus there was the element of support from Malcolm at the time, I.E theres is another person using the same method, also Attique started using some of the concepts which probably added some weight.

Another psychological advantage was that it pulled my account back over breakeven and got me into a free retake of my evaluation which as you can probably understand is hard to go against.

Another reason which may be seen as a bit petty, and slightly outside of the box is this theory I have (probably thinking out loud). If we take all the more "inspirational" traders here I.E Malcolm, HG, Prez38, Anotan (yourself ) and probably many others that I apologise if I have not mentioned. I ask myself who is showing the evidence of having more success with their method? Who are the more "casual" traders. Obviously no one is expected to go into detail about this so I can only base it on snippets of info that is placed around the thread to build a story. Malcolm is the one that stands out based on the amount of trades taken per day and success rate, plus an element of simplicity.

To narrow it off in simpler terms, my immediate term goal is to pass my evaluation, therefore I ask myself who would have most success in passing an evaluation based on the "subjective" evidence ive got, and If I had a gun to my head, I would likely say Malcolm, and this slightly lines up with some of the successful trades ive had.

I just want to point out that these are just immediate observations and could change over time.
  • #34,949
  • Nov 15, 2021 5:49am Nov 15, 2021 5:49am
What is significance of this high volume bar?

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  • #34,950
  • Nov 15, 2021 5:57am Nov 15, 2021 5:57am
Quoting Shantala
What is significance of this high volume bar? {image}
Im thinking potential SOS with next bar up confirming?

Also a low volume retracement back into the area of high volume.

So could be a SOS 6 maybe?
  • #34,951
  • Edited 6:48am Nov 15, 2021 6:35am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting Shantala
What is significance of this high volume bar? {image}
Definitely interested in more perspectives. I went in thinking it was still bearish but now I think it might rally
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  • #34,952
  • Nov 15, 2021 6:43am Nov 15, 2021 6:43am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Thats a good question about VZA mate, im glad you asked. The initial appeal of VZA is that I felt that it had some similarities to how I was trading before (using SD zones/order blocks) Just before Malcolm popped back I was using a combination of marking the zones plus marking the OR. I smugly thought that this would give an extra edge but really it was just a filter to take less trades as there was often 2 opposing rules so I decided at the time to discount the OR and use only VZA. My plan was to use no timeframes less than M15/M30 and...
Please continue to share your journey. My trades in this thread are live but backtesting is still the largest chunk of my trading by far and it is always reassuring hearing others also figuring out the kinks and persevering. Recently while backtesting, I've had a few 'aha' moments that were followed by 7-8 trade drawdowns lol. I've been focusing more on seeing market structure/breaks of structure to tighten up things a bit which has been mixed so far. Outside of that, just repetition and review to stamp out individual errors one by one which seems neverending
  • #34,953
  • Nov 15, 2021 6:51am Nov 15, 2021 6:51am
Quoting Shantala
What is significance of this high volume bar? {image}
Look at the high of the down bar, it tried to rally above the previous bar's high and failed which is bearish.

You have the top reversal as price tried again to rally into the highs. The only concerning thing is Friday which looks like it tested the lows of the top reversal, but with today moving down I think shorts are still in play.
  • #34,954
  • Nov 15, 2021 7:04am Nov 15, 2021 7:04am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Look at the high of the down bar, it tried to rally above the previous bar's high and failed which is bearish.
Thats a good point, I never paid enough attention to the high or open of that bar, your right it does look bearish.
  • #34,955
  • Nov 15, 2021 7:16am Nov 15, 2021 7:16am
Quoting Macallik
{quote} Please continue to share your journey. My trades in this thread are live but backtesting is still the largest chunk of my trading by far and it is always reassuring hearing others also figuring out the kinks and persevering. Recently while backtesting, I've had a few 'aha' moments that were followed by 7-8 trade drawdowns lol. I've been focusing more on seeing market structure/breaks of structure to tighten up things a bit which has been mixed so far. Outside of that, just repetition and review to stamp out individual errors one by one which...
I know what you mean mate, its easy to get caught up in the "aha" moments
  • #34,956
  • Nov 15, 2021 7:59am Nov 15, 2021 7:59am
EURAUD

Friday's highest volume bar was an absorption bar pushing through the lows of Nov 10th.

Today during Asia there was obvious selling which price tested the selling with with a negative result. Shorted a M30 UT into the close of the selling during Asia.
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  • #34,957
  • Nov 15, 2021 8:20am Nov 15, 2021 8:20am
Quoting Anotan
EURAUD Friday's highest volume bar was an absorption bar pushing through the lows of Nov 10th. Today during Asia there was obvious selling which price tested the selling with with a negative result. Shorted a M30 UT into the close of the selling during Asia. {image}
Nice trade mate, i notice you never moved your stop at any point. Were you tempted at any point to move to breakeven?
  • #34,958
  • Nov 15, 2021 8:55am Nov 15, 2021 8:55am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Nice trade mate, i notice you never moved your stop at any point. Were you tempted at any point to move to breakeven?
The short answer is I take partial profits and close trades manually to reduce my position if price moves against me in order to protect myself.

The long answer is I take multiple entries on a trade, sometimes 20-30 entries on a trade. It can get chaotic, sometimes, but most of the time I sort my entries by price and watch how they are moving.. If entries that were once in profit are starting to go negative then I start closing and reducing positions. If price stalls I may take partial profits or price starts moving quickly I'll reduce as well.

If you look at some of my past screen shots back when I was posting live you'll get an idea.
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  • #34,959
  • Nov 15, 2021 12:57pm Nov 15, 2021 12:57pm
though its too late session still took the trade based on recent development.
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EDIT:
quite high volume coming in with middle close probably, immediate countermanding signal, not worth holding. closed it manually.

EDIT: that bar closed as an upbar. took 0.7R loss.
  • #34,960
  • Nov 15, 2021 2:28pm Nov 15, 2021 2:28pm
Quoting attique08
though its too late session still took the trade based on recent development. {image} EDIT: quite high volume coming in with middle close probably, immediate countermanding signal, not worth holding. closed it manually. EDIT: that bar closed as an upbar. took 0.7R loss.
Unlucky mate.

I noticed this nice short entry earlier today , Upthrust followed by no demand.

I didnt take it though due to a few reasons, H1 didnt line up, plus no breakout of NYSE OR. But would have been a nice trade.
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