Trading 101

closing this pair too, trade was taken yesterday

will decide what to do with this pair before the week is up

It is so true, some traders just don't get it, they look for home run every trade they open,

Next Thursday, the Bank of England will have its monetary policy meeting. Analysts at ING expect a 15bp rate hike, following recent hawkish comments. They consider markets are overestimating the scale of future tightening, so they argue some modest pushback from policymakers in the form of lower medium-term inflation forecasts and a split rate hike vote, seems likely.
Key Quotes:
“Policymakers are likely to offer some modest pushback against the market's tightening expectations for 2022. That leads us neatly onto whether policymakers will attempt to lean more heavily against market pricing. We think they will, if only subtly.”
“For one thing, if the committee does indeed opt to increase rates on Thursday, then it's unlikely to be a unanimous decision. While a handful of committee members will likely take Governor Bailey’s lead and vote for a rise, we know at least one member is likely to dissent (Silvana Tenreyro). This should be a warning sign for markets: if the first – partial – rate rise can’t command a unanimous decision, then it’s harder to see a series of aggressive, future moves gaining similar levels of support.”
“When it comes to the forecasts, we may well see a downgrade to the inflation projections for two/three years' time. Don't forget that the Bank takes market interest rates and plugs them into its models. Back in August, a modest 40bp of tightening over its forecast horizon neatly kept inflation around 2% in the medium-term. All else equal, the much higher degree of tightening now priced into markets should result in that 2024 inflation forecast moving lower.
If that happens, then it would be an implicit sign that policymakers don’t see a need to act as aggressively as the markets.”
“GBP has undoubtedly benefited from the dramatic re-pricing of the UK money market curve since early September. However, the BoE’s broad, trade-weighted measure of GBP is up only 1.1% over the same period, so it seems fair to describe GBP gains as ‘hard-won’.”

Analysts at MUFG Bank are recommending a trade idea of shorting the EUR/USD pair with a target at 1.1300, an entry level of 1.1650 and a stop at 1.1850. They consider the EUR/USD could struggle to build on Thursday’s gains.
Key Quotes:
“The EUR bounced yesterday on a sense that ECB President Lagarde was less than enthusiastic in pushing back current market pricing for rate hikes next year. But senior central bankers rarely comment on specific market pricing and hence we did not view Lagarde as shifting the ECB stance in any way. We are in a market where investors are increasingly questioning the forward guidance of central banks – but we would argue that the ECB is on more credible ground than some of the other central banks and therefore a sustained divergence favouring a weaker EUR is likely to persist going forward.”
“The focus next week will shift of course to the FOMC and while we do not get any formal updated guidance on rates, we will get the QE tapering plan, the statement and the press conference and it is likely that Fed Chair will talk tougher on inflation given developments of late. We don’t expect any huge shift in tone or message but enough to prompt some reversal of the heavy USD selling in evidence in October.”
“Technically, EUR/USD is at an interesting point as well. The downtrend resistance on the daily intra-day chart from the highs in June and again in September comes in a little above the current spot rate (1.1706 today) and that could act to limit the upside over the short-term.”

Eu will move down I was expecting but yesterday the way mre move lower I don't expect that, I have few sell trade yesterday, I closed them I didn't swing them,

I told here I am looking for 1.145 or 1.142 level,
Some of the banks targeting 1.1300 levels. Lets see, over all Eur is weak,

GJ we are in corrective market conditions, it was like beginning of the years gold daily chart, Everyone tried to buy and market didn't go up, it is kind of that type. BTW with the proper fundamentals support we may see gj start moving up. In daily chart we are in chop, market is waiting for, You know what I am saying.

FX analysts at MUFG consider that the BoE could hike rates by 0.15% next week, although they warn about a negative GBP reaction: “Based on the recent FX response to central bank guidance we could well see GBP dismissing this guidance of slower tightening going forward. However, we would expect GBP to ultimately weaken on the back of a 15bp hike and guidance suggesting the need for less tightening than what is currently priced. That message may not be explicit but should be implied by the MPR forecasts.”

looks like a bull flag

Hi pips
It is idiot free place, we will trade break out, we will trade break in, tc, CT, now it is weekend so enjoy.

BTW music increase focus, Focus needed in trading ☺

Someone recommend me to read this book,
I have started reading, Thought share it here.

“How long are you going to wait before you demand the best of yourself?” You’re no longer a child but a full-grown person, and yet you procrastinate, Epictetus reminds himself “You will not notice that you are making no progress but you will live and die as someone quite ordinary.” From nowon, he warns himself, and all of us, to live like a mature human being and never set aside what you think is best to do. And whenever you encounter anything difficult, remember that the contest is now, you are at the Olympics, you cannot wait any longer. We don't have the luxury of postponing our training, because unlike the Olympic Games, the contest we participate in every day—life—has already begun. Life is right now.

“Dig within. Within is the wellspring of Good; and it is always ready to bubble up, if you just dig.” - Marcus Aurelius


Imagine the best version of yourself. Look inside, do you see and know who that highest version of you is, the one who acts right in all situations, the one who makes no mistakes and seems unbeatable? If you’re anything like me and have been trying to improve yourself, then you probably know this ideal version of yourself. Well, in Greek, this best version would be the inner daimon, an inner spirit or divine spark. For the Stoics and all other schools of ancient philosophy, the ultimate goal of life was eudaimonia, to become good (eu) with your inner daimon. (Not to be confused with demon, which is a bad spirit.)

After reading few page, I think this book will help traders to become better trader,
It is not trading book but I will help traders develop trader personality.

Seems like GBP is weaker

CFTC report, I use to gain perspective.

weak
1. GBP
2. USD
3. JPY
4. Chf
Strong
CAD, NZD, AUD, EUR,

I don't complete agree with this conclusions but Lets see.

mtf charts

Ok Lets understand GJ monthly chart, Price rejected 149 level many times and move up, That already happen.

Now we see previously price move sharply lower form 160 level.
we see this month price close below 157 and 156.50 level. if price close above this area we could buy but I don't see any buying below this area in Monthly chart.
previous month close bullish, there will be common tendency that people will try to buy since market over all structure and momentum is up.

Fundamentally also there is a reason for buy, But some traders like and love to buy the more deep pull back, we may get it, we may not get it.

In GJ weekly chart, I don't see any sell and I don't see any buy.
It is too late to buy and To sell this market market must come little lower. Price over all directions is bullish.
Last 2 week price couldn't close high of the previous candle.

we have to focus on, BOE after Effect, Over all context is JPY week and GU strong,
We have to understand market already discounted interest rate hike. we have to wait for BOE, How big players are thinking after BOE.

We don't have to always buy low and sell high, we can buy high and make money.

In Daily chart I don't see any swing trade, I see lots of LTF scalping opportunity some day trade opportunity. In this market conditions if you marry your trade you will lose the trade.
IMO You should take the profit, After taking few profitable trade you can hold few trade with stop BE, don't expect those will work out, expect your BE will taken out by market. In case you get lucky and price started to move sharply with one directions you will make big $$.

Be aware of what is going on with GBP, this GJ will dominate by GBP sentiment