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EURUSD only

  • #141,481
  • Oct 28, 2021 12:41pm Oct 28, 2021 12:41pm
& now for the Mastodon
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  • #141,482
  • Oct 28, 2021 12:45pm Oct 28, 2021 12:45pm
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  • #141,483
  • Oct 28, 2021 1:43pm Oct 28, 2021 1:43pm
Quoting Shaye
{quote} I have the exact same issue. I really got burnt today. Hence why I'm on this forum looking for answers. All my fundamental analysis showed that: 1. The ECB were dovish and were not going to even speculate on interest rate rise 2. The economic data that came out for the US was all bearish. Mind you European data was not bad 3. I even googled US GDP Q3 and it said it was predicted to be below expectations but that economists were not worried since this is mainly due to only supply chain issues and next GDP should resume upwards 4. We keep...
It was not 100% dovish because the ECB outlined conditions for rate hikes, in particular if inflation gets anchored above 2%. So they were talking about it and in this respect Lagarde said "it is not for me to tell whether markets are ahead of themselves" when referring to priced rate hikes which the ECB does not have in their guidance so far. Hence one could take it as: if the market is right about inflation it might be right about the ECB hiking earlier. But in the end this sentence of her just caused an aweful lot of confusion and interpretation and it apparently shocked the marked which was rather short. So generally the ECB was dovish, but not like the market is used to. Maybe they interpret it the other way around tomorrow..

Apart from today the current environment is generally not all about hiking rates and appreciating like in 2014. First of all hiking rates in the current environment could lead to policy errors if the underlying inflation does not originate from a strong economy but from supply disruptions as currently. This is a market concern. Second the persistant and growing inflation differences that the eurozone and the US have had over years now erodes the "fair" value of the dollar compared to the euro slowly over time. If the global economy recovers risk currencies can have a strong drag towards the purchasing power parity which sits around 1.45 in case of EURUSD. Thirdly the value of the dollar gets slowly eroded as the current account grows more and more negative. In the end currencies are needed to pay for traded goods and for every US import dollars have to be sold and someone has to take them. We have not seen any of those long term effects yet, but over the next year they might outweigh the effects of monetary policy. Also the eurozone will get a boost from the recovery fund billions being spent.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #141,484
  • Oct 28, 2021 2:04pm Oct 28, 2021 2:04pm
EU on my mind... Structurally!
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  • #141,485
  • Oct 28, 2021 2:11pm Oct 28, 2021 2:11pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} It was not 100% dovish because the ECB outlined conditions for rate hikes, in particular if inflation gets anchored above 2%. So they were talking about it and in this respect Lagarde said "it is not for me to tell whether markets are ahead of themselves" when referring to priced rate hikes which the ECB does not have in their guidance so far. Hence one could take it as: if the market is right about inflation it might be right about the ECB hiking earlier. But in the end this sentence of her just caused an aweful lot of confusion and interpretation...
Thanks. The market is very fickle. I could see on the charts that the bull run started when German inflation data surpassed expectations at around 13:00 GMT. At the same time German bond yields shot up wildly.

So there is some lesson for me to learn :-)

I guessed exactly; it would be madness to see rate hikes now especially when the global economy is not running on all cylinders. For example, people are calling the BoE hawkish stance a policy mistake (we shall see).

I saw the US trade balance worsen on Wednesday but it didn't seem to have much impact on EURUSD. If anything it went bearish
  • #141,486
  • Oct 28, 2021 2:36pm Oct 28, 2021 2:36pm
Hi guys,
Today I managed to retrieve an order that helped me make 96 seeds. I closed the last purchase of today 1.16883.

Thanks to everyone for your analysis, insights and fellowship.
"No pain no gain"
  • #141,487
  • Oct 28, 2021 2:57pm Oct 28, 2021 2:57pm
Quoting Shaye
{quote} Thanks. The market is very fickle. I could see on the charts that the bull run started when German inflation data surpassed expectations at around 13:00 GMT. At the same time German bond yields shot up wildly. So there is some lesson for me to learn :-) I guessed exactly; it would be madness to see rate hikes now especially when the global economy is not running on all cylinders. For example, people are calling the BoE hawkish stance a policy mistake (we shall see). I saw the US trade balance worsen on Wednesday but it didn't seem to have...
Such effects like from the trade balance are slow physical effects. The number itself does not affect the EURUSD. Just all else equal it adds slight upward pressure every day from physical transactions. If there are more imports than exports dollars are offered somewhat more agressively by nature unless the exporters can and want to keep dollars in favor of their domestic currency. In the end taxes have to be paid in domestic fiat money.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #141,488
  • Oct 28, 2021 7:55pm Oct 28, 2021 7:55pm
The Mastodon
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  • #141,489
  • Oct 28, 2021 8:03pm Oct 28, 2021 8:03pm
My view for today till next week.
Looking at 3 possible scenarios:

1st: Goes up to significant 1.17500 and doesn't break thus pushing the price back down
2nd: Goes up to significant 1.17500 then consolidates before going down
3rd: Breaks 1.17500 and closes above that price for continuation up to 1.18000 (major resistance)

Overall still bearish to me.
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  • #141,490
  • Edited 8:20pm Oct 28, 2021 8:04pm | Edited 8:20pm
Hoping This is The Highest of This Month, gonna hold many Sell Postion for a month - target 310 pips

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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #141,491
  • Oct 28, 2021 9:15pm Oct 28, 2021 9:15pm
Quoting pinksushi
My view for today till next week. Looking at 3 possible scenarios: 1st: Goes up to significant 1.17500 and doesn't break thus pushing the price back down 2nd: Goes up to significant 1.17500 then consolidates before going down 3rd: Breaks 1.17500 and closes above that price for continuation up to 1.18000 (major resistance) Overall still bearish to me. {image}
You might wanna close some if not all, there is a high probability we will see 1.16060 today. This week needs to close bearish if the down trend is to continue. We are not suppose to have 3 bullish weeks if the downtrend is still in play else, I will take it as bulls have taken over.
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #141,492
  • Oct 28, 2021 9:25pm Oct 28, 2021 9:25pm
Quoting Austyno
{quote} You might wanna close some if not all, there is a high probability we will see 1.16060 today. This week needs to close bearish if the down trend is to continue. We are not suppose to have 3 bullish weeks if the downtrend is still in play else, I will take it as bulls have taken over.
I highly doubt, but thanks for the advise. It's still too bullish in the lower tf in my opinion.
  • #141,493
  • Edited Oct 29, 2021 12:30am Oct 28, 2021 11:40pm | Edited Oct 29, 2021 12:30am
NY to close @1.1629
I'll be selling 1.1682,1.169191 and 1.1707 levels if it gets there today. Great fun with this spike!
Double Top at1.1692 on H1
  • #141,494
  • Oct 29, 2021 1:30am Oct 29, 2021 1:30am
Quoting Traderview
1.1567 is the 200ma on weekly. It's been providing support for the whole month. This is the last week of the month. Will it break or not? Lets see. Even If the support 1.1567 is true or not, and ECB do something stupid, i don't think we'll see move above 1.17. The Black Trend line is very strong. The above move 1.1650 is weekly 38% fib, the Black TL, as well as the GREEN ZONE 1.1680 - 1.1710 will all provide strong RESISTANCE, and will only wants to trade below 1.1650. Breaking above 1.1630 - 1.1650 is a determining zone to trade above 1.15 or below,...
Before and after
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  • #141,495
  • Oct 29, 2021 1:36am Oct 29, 2021 1:36am
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  • #141,496
  • Oct 29, 2021 1:45am Oct 29, 2021 1:45am
Hi Traders..

Just opened new buy order here at 1.1663... Stops at least 15 pips..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #141,497
  • Oct 29, 2021 2:08am Oct 29, 2021 2:08am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Hi Traders.. Just opened new buy order here at 1.1663... Stops at least 15 pips..
Closing here at 1.1671 with +8 pips.. (Total loss so far from yesterday's choppiness: -56+8=-48 pips..)
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #141,498
  • Edited 3:17am Oct 29, 2021 2:52am | Edited 3:17am
New Pending Order, Buy Limit: 1.1664.. Stops at least 15 pips..

Edit: Order got triggered!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #141,499
  • Oct 29, 2021 3:00am Oct 29, 2021 3:00am
Closed a few for about +75 pips each.
Setting up buy limits at 1.64xx area.

Reason for buy limits is D tf failed to close above 1.68xx.
I expect price to pull back a bit before moving upwards to my preferred key areas before continuation of downward movement.
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  • #141,500
  • Oct 29, 2021 3:33am Oct 29, 2021 3:33am
Quoting marcin.kamaj
I took short at 1.1681 for 10-15 pips ( will close from hand). Ultra riski game.
Finally closed now at 1.1663 and now stay sideline and look that is only correct or we back to route to down.

Green pips for everybody!
Everyone makes mistakes, but only few use equity management.
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