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Method or Man?

  • #21
  • Sep 30, 2021 5:45am Sep 30, 2021 5:45am
Always the man! At least 95% it’s all about “how” you apply a strategy and most importantly “when”. Mills of traders applying the same ol strategies on the same ol pairs at the good ol time, and yet, only a lucky few get to make the dough. It’s a hard world, as says Supertramp!
  • #22
  • Oct 1, 2021 2:23am Oct 1, 2021 2:23am
Agree.

5% method. 95% man.
  • #23
  • Oct 1, 2021 6:05am Oct 1, 2021 6:05am
both
Attached Image
Anything above the line is an uptrend, below the line is a downtrend.
  • #24
  • Oct 1, 2021 6:53am Oct 1, 2021 6:53am
I would divide the work with the trading system into 2 types of data processing.

- work with algorithms for analysis and risks, as he says in the first post, this is the Method.
- work with thinking and psychology, that is Man

The split training method always works in almost every area.
For example, you came to the conclusion that always when the market exits a triangular correction, you make several trades, and their overall performance approaches 0.
You can consider your method and signals that influence the determination of the entry point and risks and find out that to confirm the breakout of the correction, you need to use another additional indicator, for example, the EMA line. You add this to your Method.
Then, you analyze the behaviour and psychology of trading and at what point you get weakness and your trading plan fails. For example, you found out that an error in determining the entry point affects your psychological stability, and when you see the first loss trade, then on a subconscious level you understand that your result will most likely approaches 0 again. Thus, you can conclude that working with your self-control and self-confidence, you will be able to react more disciplined to possible losses.
  • #25
  • Oct 2, 2021 4:49am Oct 2, 2021 4:49am
Quoting FXEZ
I want to start a discussion on the most important factors in your success as a trader. Is it the method of trading that makes the results?
Hi FXEZ,
An excellent question, right at the core of trading successfully. Observably, good traders can make profits using almost any system whereas poor traders can be disastrous even with what is on paper an excellent system. To this extent, the trader matters more. That said, it does help rather if you employ a strategy that has decent and robust positive expectancy.

So, clearly, both are important and the relationship between trader and strategy is vital. By this I mean you must use a system that suits your personality and psyche. If you are at heart a high frequency, very short trade duration scalper you are probably going to comparatively struggle as a long term trend follower, no matter how great a scalper you are, and vice-versa. If you cannot completely engage and feel totally comfortable with your system you are never going to be able to stick with it through inevitable bad patches; and as soon as the discipline and consistency starts waning you are in trouble, regardless of your talents or your system's virtues.
  • #26
  • Oct 5, 2021 6:29am Oct 5, 2021 6:29am
I have been following this forum for a long time and noticed that new ideas and new strategies rarely come across. Just look, for many years, we still use those methods of analysis (technical) that were known decades ago. This is a very long period of time when in other areas we see the greatest progress throughout the year, for example.
That is why I want to say that everything has already been invented, and you need to work on yourself, on psychology.
  • #27
  • Oct 10, 2021 8:55am Oct 10, 2021 8:55am
Quoting Barrg1
I have been following this forum for a long time and noticed that new ideas and new strategies rarely come across. Just look, for many years, we still use those methods of analysis (technical) that were known decades ago. This is a very long period of time when in other areas we see the greatest progress throughout the year, for example. That is why I want to say that everything has already been invented, and you need to work on yourself, on psychology.
well yes, for years the same non-working strategies have been superimposed on the sides of ff.
there is nothing new.
  • #28
  • Oct 10, 2021 9:38am Oct 10, 2021 9:38am
Quoting Barrg1
I have been following this forum for a long time and noticed that new ideas and new strategies rarely come across. Just look, for many years, we still use those methods of analysis (technical) that were known decades ago. This is a very long period of time when in other areas we see the greatest progress throughout the year, for example. That is why I want to say that everything has already been invented, and you need to work on yourself, on psychology.
Yeah.
If it was a strategy or system that can be defined by rules ... that´s what EA-s do. But there isn´t profitable EA´s; only HTF-s have some edge. They cost millions as internet (speed) you need to run them. They are far away from reach of ordinary person.

It is you. Againt the market, against those HTF-s, against... yourself. Tough game.
Markets will move to the right.
  • #29
  • Oct 10, 2021 12:57pm Oct 10, 2021 12:57pm
Quoting scherzi
Agree. 5% method. 95% man.
I see it differently.
95% method.
5% people if your ego is okay.
  • #30
  • Oct 10, 2021 8:14pm Oct 10, 2021 8:14pm
trading its all about mathematical unbalance, statistics and basic probability; there is no such thing as "subjective" constants in this game, you either do it right based on logic and math OR you fail.. plain and simple

MAN??

are you mature enough to follow the guidelines each and every time?? Good !! then you are ready to trade =)

Or

Are you one of those that think every single step made, every single minor thing that comes to your mind and overthink it to exhaustion? Good !! now that you realized you are an undisciplined/inmature person that isnt fit for trading in your current state you can do 2 things:


Grow up and act like an adult

Make a Robot/EA and let it take the trades for you



Your choice =)

EDIT: Grammar
  • #31
  • Oct 10, 2021 10:27pm Oct 10, 2021 10:27pm
Quoting havo
trading its all about mathematical unbalance, statistics and basic probability; there is no such thing as "subjective" constants in this game, you either do it right based on logic and math OR you fail.. plain and simple MAN?? are you mature enough to follow the guidelines each and every time?? Good !! then you are ready to trade =) Or Are you one of those that think every single step made, every single minor thing that comes to your mind and overthink it to exhaustion? Good !! now that you realized you are an undisciplined/inmature person that...
If only a EA could be by programmed to be as good as a talented trader.

No chance unfortunately.

They are inefficient and wasteful but at least they never break it’s owns rules.
Sure you can build portfolios of EA’s and run different strategies together to offset some of the drawdowns, but they will eat much of your profits in broker fees.

I have yet to meet a Algo builder who just kills the market with his / her EA’s.

Even the professionals who trade them normally only place them on the market for very brief periods, in effect they act more like trade managers than long term traders.

The brutal truth is money is made by not being in the market until absolutely necessary, then robbing the brokers and running for the hills before they know you were trading.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #32
  • Oct 11, 2021 1:43am Oct 11, 2021 1:43am
Quoting havo
trading its all about mathematical unbalance, statistics and basic probability; there is no such thing as "subjective" constants in this game, you either do it right based on logic and math OR you fail.. plain and simple MAN?? are you mature enough to follow the guidelines each and every time?? Good !! then you are ready to trade =) Or Are you one of those that think every single step made, every single minor thing that comes to your mind and overthink it to exhaustion? Good !! now that you realized you are an undisciplined/inmature person that...
well I see that you may have problems interpreting text.
and you can’t think through the fact that an opinion can have multiple meanings.
I'm sorry for my poor English.
  • #33
  • Edited 2:51am Oct 11, 2021 2:38am | Edited 2:51am
Quoting havo
trading its all about mathematical unbalance, statistics and basic probability; there is no such thing as "subjective" constants in this game, you either do it right based on logic and math OR you fail.. plain and simple MAN?? are you mature enough to follow the guidelines each and every time?? Good !! then you are ready to trade =) Or Are you one of those that think every single step made, every single minor thing that comes to your mind and overthink it to exhaustion? Good !! now that you realized you are an undisciplined/inmature person that...
Perception is subjective. No human being can apprehend the objects themselves. Trading gyrates around the perception and thinking of the trader that is 100% subjective. Your brain does not have direct acces to the nature of the objects you perceive nor to the signals that any instrument emits and your thinking is a product from your brain that is an organic structure different (and subjective) from those of the rest of people. If you have not read it, Critique of Pure Reason is a classic book you will enjoy.

Then, Logic is a part of Maths, it is the formal language of Maths, your statement is wrong when you split "logic and math" as if they were separate subjects. Roughly speaking logic can be considered a part of discrete Maths (that also include sets and other concepts).

Additionally, trading is not exclusively a probability problem as you also affirm. The idea of a future return can be expressed as a stochastic problem, but it is not restricted to it. Trading can be resolved using optimization techniques such as fuzzy sets theory and limits.

For some, talking about trading is just a funny hobby; while for others it is a serious conversation about how they make their living and put at risk their weath day after day. I think we all have to respect the rest on this forum and avoid expressions such as "grow up", because this is not a game and there a few of us who take very seriously this matter.
  • #34
  • Oct 11, 2021 2:46am Oct 11, 2021 2:46am
Quoting RickM
{quote} If only a EA could be by programmed to be as good as a talented trader. No chance unfortunately. They are inefficient and wasteful but at least they never break it’s owns rules. Sure you can build portfolios of EA’s and run different strategies together to offset some of the drawdowns, but they will eat much of your profits in broker fees. I have yet to meet a Algo builder who just kills the market with his / her EA’s. Even the professionals who trade them normally only place them on the market for very brief periods, in effect they act...
It is possible. In my opinion, the main problem is that you are not going to explain to anyone your trading secrets.

This constitutes a division between what you are going to be disposed to code and what you are going to just trade manually.

I have techniques that could be translated to code very easily. So simple that it seems practically impossible that they constitute a trading strategy because people are biased to think that trading must require necessarily some type of secret mystical and intrincate process.

Others would require an entire team and, as I say, I would never publicly say how I actually trade, which makes impossible to me handling a direct development process. Of course anyone could build it as a modular project, but if you are making enough trading two or thee hours per day, why doing it?

Many of us have been working as engineers or have the required background to code EAs by ourselves, but most of the people do not.
  • #35
  • Oct 11, 2021 2:47am Oct 11, 2021 2:47am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} well I see that you may have problems interpreting text. and you can’t think through the fact that an opinion can have multiple meanings. I'm sorry for my poor English.
I understand your English perfectly. No worries.

Mine is not that good either lol.
  • #36
  • Oct 11, 2021 6:10am Oct 11, 2021 6:10am
I read a lot about putting the ego aside in trading. well, a healthy ego is needed. because a healthy ego will weigh on the knowledge and experience gained so far.
and it helps a lot in making the decision.
now surely many do not agree with me.
sorry for your poor english knowledge.
  • #37
  • Oct 11, 2021 7:58pm Oct 11, 2021 7:58pm
Quoting scherzi
{quote} Perception is subjective. No human being can apprehend the objects themselves. Trading gyrates around the perception and thinking of the trader that is 100% subjective. Your brain does not have direct acces to the nature of the objects you perceive nor to the signals that any instrument emits and your thinking is a product from your brain that is an organic structure different (and subjective) from those of the rest of people. If you have not read it, Critique of Pure Reason is a classic book you will enjoy. Then, Logic is a part of Maths,...
Oh yes, perception its always based on the mindset of the viewer, however there are "realitys" are absolute, wheter we like it or not.. and maybe "logic" isnt the proper word, maybe its something like an "structured aproach"? to a problem.. like a step by step/guideline, sorry but english its not native for me, but i have the idea very clear and i can explain easily.. in my language

and yes, logic (my explanation) and math goes hand in hand

as the "grow up" part, YES, when we have a bad/negative personality or character TRAIT (again, not 100% sure how to say it), then we have to "grow up" that trait and leave it in the past and become someone better !!
  • #38
  • Oct 11, 2021 8:33pm Oct 11, 2021 8:33pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If only a EA could be by programmed to be as good as a talented trader. No chance unfortunately. They are inefficient and wasteful but at least they never break it’s owns rules. Sure you can build portfolios of EA’s and run different strategies together to offset some of the drawdowns, but they will eat much of your profits in broker fees. I have yet to meet a Algo builder who just kills the market with his / her EA’s. Even the professionals who trade them normally only place them on the market for very brief periods, in effect they act...
you dont need to "kill" the market, you just need the return to be a bigger than your risk (PLUS commission/spread) consistently with a good, repeatable, equal and consistent entry method every single time, period.. Hell, even at least just 1 pip+spread over risk with a >51% hit rate will make money non stop but thats an entire different topic!!

and what better tool to "execute" this than robot? a good EA can achieve it easily, the problem its the logic/coder behind it and the zillions bad habits and wrong opinions he could have about the market.. And yes, a good trader its disciplined, patient and consistent, but guess what? all those 3 things make this activity super mega BOOOOORING, tedious and time consuming and mistakes are made along the way and those mistakes can and IT WILL mess with your win rate/profit whether you like it or not !! and lets be honest, who wants to be bound to this "working conditions" if there is an alternative way to do the same thing?

And if a robot its inefficient and wasteful because its a reflect of the rules its bound to.. and who made those "rules" ? yep, exactly, the "trader" in itself so its no the tool, its the maker of it

Oh !! and I dont know if you have ever tried renko with a pure mathematical approach, but if you haven't i highly recommend it, you could be surprised how consistent can make $$ (Extra + bonus, its super easy to code a robot for it)

=)
  • #39
  • Edited 9:49pm Oct 11, 2021 9:24pm | Edited 9:49pm
Quoting havo
{quote} you dont need to "kill" the market, you just need the return to be a bigger than your risk (PLUS commission/spread) consistently with a good, repeatable, equal and consistent entry method every single time, period.. Hell, even at least just 1 pip+spread over risk with a >51% hit rate will make money non stop but thats an entire different topic!! and what better tool to "execute" this than robot? a good EA can achieve it easily, the problem its the logic/coder behind it and the zillions bad habits and wrong opinions he could have about the...
Hi Havo

My problem is I have worked very closely within an Algo development team of about 15 talented traders within three groups.
I have also worked with a handful of professional Algo traders on various strategies to build them into working EA’s with the aim to running them within portfolio’s.
We actually have about 120 strategies and builds on the data base last time I looked.

Here is my problem.

No one made any much money, ever.
These were good traders with smart strategies but they generally fail in Algo’s.

A single manual trader placing large trades on A+++ setups just destroys Algo traders in profits.

Almost ever one in my group makes real profits with their manual trading now, just crumbs come out of EA’s.

The professionals make money by selling software, training, coding services, brokerage services but not that much out of profits in comparison.

Such a shame but Algo’s will mostly destroy good traders.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #40
  • Oct 11, 2021 9:50pm Oct 11, 2021 9:50pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Havo My problem is I have worked very closely within an Algo development team of about 15 talented traders. I have also worked with a handful of professional Algo traders on various strategies to build them into working EA’s with the aim to running them within portfolio’s. Here is my problem. No one made any much money, ever. These were good traders with smart strategies but they generally fail in Algo’s. A single manual trader placing large trades on A+++ setups just destroys Algo traders in profits. Almost ever one in my group makes...

Oh, i got your point, i dont understand either why some things are so easy to say/do, but not automate them? and they make sense and its its easy to do for example between us (both humans) to hear each other and do it but when it comes to set the same rules for a robot it just doesn't work, have no idea how to implement that, etc etc.. Obviously i have no where near the same experience as you in that specific field but hearing the same thing its interesting

I know from experience that i can take trades manually that my robot just flat out ignore it and viceversa.. and we both win and lose trades that the other dont take but the overall mid/long term result its practically the same? i dont know, i just take that as it is and enjoy withdraw a set profit once a month hehe

and i agree too, a successful trader doesn't need to sell anything.. period

EDIT: better use of words
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