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vsa with Malcolm

  • #34,241
  • Oct 5, 2021 8:13am Oct 5, 2021 8:13am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} An easy starting point for stops is finding trapped buyers if you're short or trapped sellers if you're long. And Climatic volume is a great starting point for exiting trades. I don't have any hard and fast rule for stops or targets, a lot of it has to do with how confident I am with the trade. Trades I'm less confident about I tend to put tighter stops. I do trade HVCs, so I expect that the HVC is going to act as hard resistance and once price starts moving away from my entry then I start protecting myself by moving stops down. Here is...
Thanks for your post, it is helpful
Daytrader
  • #34,242
  • Oct 5, 2021 8:26am Oct 5, 2021 8:26am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Regarding the test bar length, how are you defining it being too wide? From what ive learned, an ideal test will make a LL, so this bar had to be the width that it was to engulf (bottom and top) of the previous bar. Plus wouldnt the LL that the test made add to its weight? I know that narrow range "no supply" are desired, but is that the same with "test" bars? I see what you mean about the small bodied candle that triggered me in, so are you always looking to get triggered on a "strong" candle (sometimes referred to as a fortress candle)?...
A NS is a down bar closing in the middle, a test is a down bar closing on the highs. Same principle of price checking for sellers. You want them to be on decreasing volume and spread. I don't really pay attention to LLs and engulfing. Freemind has mentioned a few times that inside bars which are tests can be very reliable. Which I do agree but I don't actively look for them.

Don't get too caught up in rules and definitions, understand the context. In this example NS bar is your main focus, the NS already checked for sellers and price doesn't need to check for them again. If you see price repeatedly testing the same area with no positive result that's a huge red flag.

Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} are you always looking to get triggered on a "strong" candle (sometimes referred to as a fortress candle)? And if triggered on a weak candle, then think about tightening stops etc?
No I don't expect to get triggered on a strong bar every trade, but if I'm seeing multiple bars that are struggling to break high/low then yeah I start closing trades. Weak candles depends on what they are doing, its pretty common to enter off a test and the next bar closes on its low at the low of the test, I'll usually add a position but I expect the next bar to be immediately up in that case. If the weak bar closes well below the low of my entry bar then yeah Ill exit that straight away.
  • #34,243
  • Oct 5, 2021 8:56am Oct 5, 2021 8:56am
I have long on NQ, but I placed stop loss on +, because I noticed that USA has important news.

I have clear chart here - sorry, because I marked lines etc. on diffrent platform.
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Daytrader
  • #34,244
  • Oct 5, 2021 9:14am Oct 5, 2021 9:14am
EA finally pushing through the lows so I'm going to call it a day now.

See what happens at 5857.
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  • #34,245
  • Oct 5, 2021 9:51am Oct 5, 2021 9:51am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} A NS is a down bar closing in the middle, a test is a down bar closing on the highs. Same principle of price checking for sellers. You want them to be on decreasing volume and spread. I don't really pay attention to LLs and engulfing. Freemind has mentioned a few times that inside bars which are tests can be very reliable. Which I do agree but I don't actively look for them. Don't get too caught up in rules and definitions, understand the context. In this example NS bar is your main focus, the NS already checked for sellers and price doesn't...
Cheers mate il take that on board.

Closing a trade thats not moving and in drawdown is something il have to work on.
  • #34,246
  • Oct 5, 2021 11:13am Oct 5, 2021 11:13am
Quoting trezo
I have long on NQ, but I placed stop loss on +, because I noticed that USA has important news. I have clear chart here - sorry, because I marked lines etc. on diffrent platform. {image}
nasdaq was a good trade. was a bit late with entry as was trading other indices as well. and had a noob mistake (too tight SL on the second position), but overall +120p.
wyckoff and WW gave several confirmations to this one. as lately posts here are more focused on HVZ then i can tell the spring happened right at 50% of yesterdays HVZ. where we also had EvR bar on 15m.
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #34,247
  • Oct 5, 2021 11:17am Oct 5, 2021 11:17am
Quoting freemind
{quote} nasdaq was a good trade. was a bit late with entry as was trading other indices as well. and had a noob mistake (too tight SL on the second position), but overall +120p. wyckoff and WW gave several confirmations to this one. as lately posts here are more focused on HVZ then i can tell the spring happened right at 50% of yesterdays HVZ. where we also had EvR bar on 15m. {image}
I took only 25p :/ Because I secured position afraid of news from USA, but that was good move up. What was the reason that you closed there? I mean when you took profit.
Daytrader
  • #34,248
  • Oct 5, 2021 11:30am Oct 5, 2021 11:30am
Quoting trezo
{quote} I took only 25p :/ Because I secured position afraid of news from USA, but that was good move up. What was the reason that you closed there? I mean when you took profit.
if you are afraid of news, but the setup is good i suggest you to put SL in BE. often if the setup is good the news will lead the market in your direction.
i closed it because:
>volume was decreasing on up waves
>that white line is a monthly open line (we often bounce from them)
>its yesterday's NY open from where we saw a massive down move on yesterday which lead to overall LL!
>the up move was overextended
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #34,249
  • Oct 5, 2021 11:32am Oct 5, 2021 11:32am
I am still wondering what to do. Each bar is closing above previous bar, but with decreasing volume. Is it sign of weakness?

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  • #34,250
  • Oct 5, 2021 11:32am Oct 5, 2021 11:32am
Quoting freemind
{quote} nasdaq was a good trade. was a bit late with entry as was trading other indices as well. and had a noob mistake (too tight SL on the second position), but overall +120p. wyckoff and WW gave several confirmations to this one. as lately posts here are more focused on HVZ then i can tell the spring happened right at 50% of yesterdays HVZ. where we also had EvR bar on 15m. {image}
Nice trade mate, was it this HVZ that you mention?
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  • #34,251
  • Oct 5, 2021 11:43am Oct 5, 2021 11:43am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Nice trade mate, was it this HVZ that you mention? {image}
my main charting platform is sierra charts where i use futures data feed and it looks very different. but i can tell you as before stated by other respectable traders - trade the volume you have on your charts. the important thing is how you read the story that charts tell.
I can tell you that Malcolm does not use futures feed and trades from FX broker data feed and he does that well. Also superstar Anotan who often goes full margin trading uses FX volume data feed.
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #34,252
  • Oct 5, 2021 11:48am Oct 5, 2021 11:48am
Quoting Shantala
I am still wondering what to do. Each bar is closing above previous bar, but with decreasing volume. Is it sign of weakness? {image}
its possible signs of decrease in demand. but you can swing the trade, as overall yesterday might be a shakeout. Use ATR stops or just previous structure lows as a trailing place for your SL. also you can look at how we will react to yesterday's massive down bar highs if we have a test there then keep your trade open.
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #34,253
  • Oct 5, 2021 12:54pm Oct 5, 2021 12:54pm
I shorted it

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  • #34,254
  • Oct 5, 2021 1:03pm Oct 5, 2021 1:03pm
Quoting Shantala
I shorted it {image}
SL gone
  • #34,255
  • Oct 5, 2021 2:41pm Oct 5, 2021 2:41pm
I failed to identify phase C. I identified AR as it first time dipped below previous bull bar low. Mistaken 2nd ST as phase C. Saw what I wanted to see, but didn't take trade again.

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  • #34,256
  • Oct 5, 2021 2:44pm Oct 5, 2021 2:44pm
Quoting Shantala
{quote} SL gone
Unlucky. Not sure how sustainable the move lower will be but there was weakness on the 15m. Most up bars were reduced volume or narrow spreads w/ increased volume. I used QQQ for real-time data but the bars/volume are comparable:

  1. Reduced Demand
  2. No Demand
  3. EvR bar
  4. Distribution bar (Narrow range/heavier volume)
  5. Upthrust/Outside reversal. New highs tested on low volume means ND @ new highs also
  6. EvR bar. Selling present in the attempt higher

Hindsight is 20/20 as always

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  • #34,257
  • Oct 5, 2021 3:03pm Oct 5, 2021 3:03pm
My EvR was between your bars 2 and 3. I identified Sign of Weakness and trigger (that EvR), but failed to identify actual Weakness.

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  • #34,258
  • Oct 5, 2021 8:31pm Oct 5, 2021 8:31pm
Quoting Shantala
I failed to identify phase C.
Can you talk a little bit about phase C? Is this a wyckoff term?
  • #34,259
  • Edited 1:00am Oct 6, 2021 12:44am | Edited 1:00am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Can you talk a little bit about phase C? Is this a wyckoff term?
Phase C is where the spring, utad and final test happens, before the change of character-CHoCH (mark-up/mark-down).

In VSA it would simply look like either,

The last up thrust/no demand within a distribution.

Or.

The last shakeout/test within an accumulation
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  • #34,260
  • Oct 6, 2021 1:17am Oct 6, 2021 1:17am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Can you talk a little bit about phase C? Is this a wyckoff term?
Yes, phase C is Wyckoff term.

Trend is where volume (effort), price (result - close), and spread are in conformity. In a trend, volume should increase with each impulse and decrease with correction. But market is always dynamic. It keeps on changing its characteristics from trending to non-trending. When volume increases on corrective move, it is against our definition of trend and we watch for “Change of Characteristics or Character” (ChoCh), which is a phase A. At this point, either price halts or reverses.
Similarly, we observe ChoCh when market transforms from non-trending to trending, which is called a phase C.
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