DislikedOk all fine for me. Wrapping up ECB : => Statement : hawkish, shift in guidance by slowing down PP => Macro Projections : hawkish via revisions up in GDP & Inflation => Q/A highlights : Mainly, - walking on eggs, trying to downplay their tapering decision (trying to make the shift as smooth as possible for markets) - but at the same time, talking about new taper discussions in October for a decision in DecemberIgnored
Only spoiler would be FED adding fuel to the tightening expectations at next FOMC on 22nd but that's quite unlikely as last Jobs report flop very badly. The only important release before the meeting is next tuesday CPI release. It has marked its peak already (and today's PPI showed its peak is behind as well), and expectations are for another cooler print.
CPI's overshoot would really need to be super big, considering the jobs report, to change FED's plans (as for now : tapering in December).
Ok for the flows now :
=> on W1
Red, but bullish candle : last week's break up point (1.180x) from the lows held to the tick and the whole week, price has only traded inside last week's break up candle.
=> on D1
D1 is still in HH/HL sequence. Needs Monday to know if we have a LH.
The thing I don't like is that the break down point at 1.185x (the break down from the last HH) has capped the flow today very easily.
I don't know if buyers are just waiting for an uneventful CPI print next tuesday before pulling the trigger.
In any case, Map on D1 unchanged :
D1 Bottom 1.171x <==> D1 Flip 1.194x <==> D1 Top 1.222x
=> on H4
H4 Flip 1.180x has floored the flow the whole week, nice, but as seen above, only shy attempts to go up from there
H4 Bottom 1.174x <==> H4 Flip 1.180x <==> H4 Top 1.188x
The whole 1.17 handle is pretty much packed with plenty of supports,
mainly 1.176x on W1, 1.174x on H4, 1.171x on D1
MM to do if we get a dip in that handle