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It Doesn't Smell Right

  • #21
  • Sep 18, 2021 12:19pm Sep 18, 2021 12:19pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Fortunately for you, you are able to trade without being restricted by FIFO rules. Not so for me. I can't have multiple positions opened with 0.01 lots and get the same results as you. The way it is set up for me when I have multiple positions opened, is I can only close out any trade I want when the lot sizes are different. For example, If I have 3 trades, one for 0.01, another for 0.02, and another for 0.03, then I can close any one of these trades at any given time. But if I have 3 positions opened at 0.01 each, then I can only close...
maybe open an company in UK for example - can do that fully online. trade as that company in UK then.. some brokers allow to open accounts for companies for example darwinex. is that somehow limited in us too? can you have a company in UK?
  • #22
  • Sep 18, 2021 1:10pm Sep 18, 2021 1:10pm
Quoting Wags
{quote} The thing is there are traders making money and lots of it, This means its possible for the other percentage of traders to do the same So your post is a point of view of someone not acheiving the results that are possible
I have yet to see these successful traders. Apparently they are rarer than unicorns.
We should not confuse short term luck with long term success!
Short term anything is possible! Long term is another story.

I'm not a "pro" trader myself. But every second member here is a pro it seems. Strange......
For now I only play with the market mostly for research purposes and all I can do is to present my findings.
  • #23
  • Sep 18, 2021 1:31pm Sep 18, 2021 1:31pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} I have yet to see these successful traders. Apparently they are rarer than unicorns. We should not confuse short term luck with long term success! Short term anything is possible! Long term is another story. I'm not a "pro" trader myself. But every second member here is a pro it seems. Strange...... For now I only play with the market mostly for research purposes and all I can do is to present my findings.
[quote][We should not confuse short term luck with long term success!
Short term anything is possible! Long term is another story.
/quote]
True and a good punchline.
Quote
For now I only play with the market mostly for research purposes and all I can do is to present my findings
Post your trading results and we will look at your findings,
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #24
  • Sep 18, 2021 1:41pm Sep 18, 2021 1:41pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} I have yet to see these successful traders. Apparently they are rarer than unicorns. We should not confuse short term luck with long term success! Short term anything is possible! Long term is another story. I'm not a "pro" trader myself. But every second member here is a pro it seems. Strange...... For now I only play with the market mostly for research purposes and all I can do is to present my findings.

The thing is most who are long term successful or so they imply lol either do not post anything at all or give us the stuff that we already know

Pivot trading by davit you can be very profitable it has been proven, if you have a decent amount of money in your account to trade with and get your risk correct the wins by far outway any trades you have to cut off, but this is still down to the trader and their overall view of the market
  • #25
  • Sep 18, 2021 1:51pm Sep 18, 2021 1:51pm
Quoting Wags
{quote} The thing is most who are long term successful or so they imply lol either do not post anything at all or give us the stuff that we already know Pivot trading by davit you can be very profitable it has been proven, if you have a decent amount of money in your account to trade with and get your risk correct the wins by far outway any trades you have to cut off
I read most of the systems here. So far I found nothing very interesting or promising.
Pivot trading by davit, I read this one as well. Seems like a very subjective strategy open for interpretation and random discretion. The rules are not clear at all and no system can be defined. The results therefore are impossible to replicate.

General rule: If you can't define the rules, then you can't automate it. If you can't automated it, then you can't backtest it.
If you can't automate and backtest, then you are hopelessly stuck in the old world of manual random trading and emotional roller coaster where no progress can be made even if you live 1000 years.
  • #26
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:00pm Sep 18, 2021 2:00pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} I read most of the systems here. So far I found nothing very interesting or promising. Pivot trading by davit, I read this one as well. Seems like a very subjective strategy open for interpretation and random discretion. The rules are not clear at all and no system can be defined. The results therefore are impossible to replicate. General rule: If you can't define the rules, then you can't automate it. if you can't automated it, then you can't backtest it. If you can't automate and backtest, then you are hopelessly stuck in the old wold...
But this could be the reason why the majority of traders are unsuccessful because they feel everything has to be set in stone and cannot see past this
  • #27
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:12pm Sep 18, 2021 2:12pm
Quoting Wags
{quote} But this could be the reason why the majority of traders are unsuccessful because they feel everything has to be set in stone and cannot see past this
Yes. This could be the reason. But it's not.

Let's analyze this problem.

On the assumption that you can't win with static fixed rules this means that every moment in the market is new and unique and nothing repeats.
But IF every moment in the market is new and unique and nothing repeats this means that the market is random and unpredictable.
So, how do you win in such environment? Who or what can beat randomness?

On the other side, IF there are some hidden patterns in the data and they repeat from time to time with small changes then it makes sense to find and define these patterns and to create a robot to trade them.

It's one or the other. Can't have both because they contradict.
  • #28
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:23pm Sep 18, 2021 2:23pm
Quoting here2there
I am starting to believe Forex swing trading is a sham. All of this wild price action makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to succeed trading Forex. Scalpers might be doing OK, but swing trading no longer seems to work in this chaotic market. I see mostly irrational sideways movement on higher time frames such as the Daily, and the 4 Hour is filled with false signals. Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
Two things you can do. Of the 28 FX pairs, several of them are correlated. Trade the correlated pairs that expresses your idea. The next thing you can do is find a broker that allows you to trade in units. 100,000 units and 100,001 units are two different orders.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #29
  • Edited 2:51pm Sep 18, 2021 2:32pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} Yes. This could be the reason. But it's not. Let's analyze this problem. On the assumption that you can't win with static fixed rules this means that every moment in the market is new and unique and nothing repeats. But IF every moment in the market is new and unique and nothing repeats this means that the market is random and unpredictable. So, how do you win in such environment? Who or what can beat randomness? On the other side, IF there are some hidden patterns in the data and they repeat from time to time with...
You say "but its not" just out of interest how do you know this?

This is way off, just because you cannot win with static fixed rules does not mean every moment in the market is unique

Even worse is the small changes are precisely why most traders fail and majority of robots are absolute crap
  • #30
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:39pm Sep 18, 2021 2:39pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} well at least you have a TE, don't remove it like everyone else!
Yep lol i do see a lot of TE's with losses as well to be fair which are still left there by traders
  • #31
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:55pm Sep 18, 2021 2:55pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Hmmm where are all these TE's that show losses ?
There is quite a few, you are obviously mixing with all the winners

My TE is actually not based on a startegy it is a complete mix up of different styles of trading since i started it lol
  • #32
  • Sep 18, 2021 6:01pm Sep 18, 2021 6:01pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} I read most of the systems here. So far I found nothing very interesting or promising. Pivot trading by davit, I read this one as well. Seems like a very subjective strategy open for interpretation and random discretion. The rules are not clear at all and no system can be defined. The results therefore are impossible to replicate. General rule: If you can't define the rules, then you can't automate it. If you can't automated it, then you can't backtest it. If you can't automate and backtest, then you are hopelessly stuck in the old world...
I read something about conscious knowing versus unconscious knowing once. I have never backtested anything, but I do use statistics. One I use a lot is that there is 100% probability that the monthly range of a currency will be more than the upper or lower wick of the first day of that month. This alone is enough to trade well. General rules should be there for sure, but sometimes we are too busy backtesting to actually get to the level of unconscious knowing.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #33
  • Sep 18, 2021 9:23pm Sep 18, 2021 9:23pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} The market is technically random with a few small exceptions where profits can be made occasionally. Short term trading, day trading and scalping offers the worst odds from probability standpoint. Long term macro trading is best in terms of odds but significant capital and proper automation is needed to do it effectively. The potential percentage gains from macro trading however are quite small and therefore not attractive for the small retail traders. For example, 20% yearly profit on 5K (the average retail account size according to industry...
I agree with most of what you said, except the idea of needing a million dollars.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #34
  • Sep 18, 2021 11:31pm Sep 18, 2021 11:31pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
So, how do you win in such environment? Who or what can beat randomness?
Fluctuations. Start using any pattern on fluctuations extremes.

See here in this my post a chart of fluctuations on EURUSD for 20 years
  • #35
  • Sep 18, 2021 11:39pm Sep 18, 2021 11:39pm
Quoting HeyYou
Hmmm where are all these TE's that show losses ?
see my profile... I keep losing TE's..

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  • #36
  • Sep 19, 2021 12:41am Sep 19, 2021 12:41am
Quoting here2there
I am starting to believe Forex swing trading is a sham. All of this wild price action makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to succeed trading Forex. Scalpers might be doing OK, but swing trading no longer seems to work in this chaotic market. I see mostly irrational sideways movement on higher time frames such as the Daily, and the 4 Hour is filled with false signals. Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
Hi h2t

I did not see your total question. I only saw the FIFO component.

How do you define success?
It's different for everyone. When I realized I could make an income trading, for me that was successful. Trading is a very isolating job. I would rather be outside the house.

How do I cope with the price action?

First, I know that it is not irrational. People are trying to find what they think is fair value. That is rational.
Second, if I see a two or three bar range, I drop down in timeframes until I can see legs. I drop down until I can see AB=CD. Then, I trade that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #37
  • Edited 5:06am Sep 19, 2021 3:59am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting here2there
I am starting to believe Forex swing trading is a sham. All of this wild price action makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to succeed trading Forex. Scalpers might be doing OK, but swing trading no longer seems to work in this chaotic market. I see mostly irrational sideways movement on higher time frames such as the Daily, and the 4 Hour is filled with false signals. Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
What? Where are wild price action?
Actually I am falling asleep... was waiting that EUR moves 5-10 pips for hours for last week. The algo machines and maybe the restrictions in margin level in the EU and down under have slowed the trading activity dramatically.

When I first got in touch with trading in the mid 1990th the Yen was a wild!!! 250-300 pips minimum every day!!! Even 10 years ago the EUR standard daily move was 100-120 pips! For the larger time frame there were numbers of 1000-2000 pips swings.

That all changed in mid 2016. Today.... EUR 40pips? 50pips? If EUR has a rookie day we can get 80pips.
When I look back I am intended to say... no/low price action/and this 15/20 pips yittering makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to make money.

The 15/20 pips moves today are for the algos the 150/200 pips movements of the manual traders 15/20 years ago!
  • #38
  • Sep 19, 2021 6:48am Sep 19, 2021 6:48am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} What? Where are wild price action? Actually I am falling asleep... was waiting that EUR moves 5-10 pips for hours for last week. The algo machines and maybe the restrictions in margin level in the EU and down under have slowed the trading activity dramatically. When I first got in touch with trading in the mid 1990th the Yen was a wild!!! 250-300 pips minimum every day!!! Even 10 years ago the EUR standard daily move was 100-120 pips! For the larger time frame there were numbers of 1000-2000 pips swings. That all changed in mid 2016. Today.......

I also studied this problem with the shrinking volatility and I found that there is another side to this story. IF you study the history in more detail (the exact tick history of bid and ask prices) you will see that in the past the spreads were very large! During 1990's the average spread for the major pairs is 10 pips! In the early 2000's average spread for EURUSD is 5 pips and around 2005 is 3 pips. Now in 2021 the average spread for EURUSD is below 1 pips including commissions. Many brokers can give you as low as 0 pips on raw quotes.

In the end you have the same conditions but on a different price scale. In the early days Forex prices had 2 and 4 decimals. Quotes in the format 0.0000 and 0.00 for yen pairs. Now we have 3 and 5 decimals. 0.00000 and 0.000 for yen. 1 pips in the old quotes is equal to 10 pips in the current quotes.

So, if you divide the average daily range by the average spread you see that the conditions now are not much different than 20 years ago. In fact, now it's much better to trade overall because of technology and ease of access. Trading is much easier now. But successful trading is still harder because of competition.
The chart patterns are the same. But they happen on a different time-price scale.
  • #39
  • Sep 19, 2021 8:26am Sep 19, 2021 8:26am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote}...One I use a lot is that there is 100% probability that the monthly range of a currency will be more than the upper or lower wick of the first day of that month. This alone is enough to trade well...
Can you provide a few examples of what you are talking about?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #40
  • Sep 19, 2021 8:38am Sep 19, 2021 8:38am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Can you provide a few examples of what you are talking about?
On the first day of each month draw a horizontal line from the daily high and low extended to the right. What jmn6511 is saying that within that month, price will break through either the high or low 100% of the time. Now in terms of strategy, I'm not too sure if jmn6511 was implying this but what I took from it is that the high and low of the first day serve as target areas for interday trades. Say price still hasn't broke out of the daily high or low from the first day, it's a fair assumption that price eventually will, so the idea is to find a set up while the price is contained within that range and target either the high or low depending on the current interday trend... that's at least what I took from it lol
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