Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

Okay trade well

Nice sideways chop around the UK open again. The BillyBar just about delivered the +5 TP after the high break but almost reached the low at 08:45 UK time before going there. Haven't traded it. Probably best to manually adjust the range to at least a 15 Pips if deciding to enter on it. A range below 15 really seems to deliver a higher percentage chance to fail even if some of them just work out if the range is even tight as 5 Pips

Anyways, hope you have a good day all.

Here my FTMO Trial trades for today. "Trading what i see" proved me wrong 3 times in a row so far and the fourth try looks just about getting stopped out too.

Probably nothing you can do instead of luckily staying out, using a bigger stop loss per entry or exactly not doing this type of discretionary scalping and find that more mechanical/systematic approach. I am not sure what else people would do here. So getting stopped out 4 times in a row at -10, that's already a 40 Pips i then have to make just to be back to break even for the day (not including spread, commissions). So more like a 45 Pips after 4 entries which failed.

So having a daily goal i would now have to keep on entering trades and provide the necessary margin for doing so to be either back to break even and stop, reaching my profit target for the day and stop, reach what..., a further -4 trades at -10 SL stopped out so i am then at 8 trades lost in a row at -80 for the day. I don't know

Not sure if having a rule like "stop if 3 trades got lost for -X Pips" for the day will help. You then still have to fight it back but yes maybe that would help to avoid a even larger losing strike then where maybe just everything seems to work against you for the day.



Edit, Yup. The fourth try got stopped out too... I know it is not so glorious like posting winning trades but thats just the reality for me at the moment.

So i think the next FTMO trial i started that is going to fail. Only 2 days left and far behind the profit target. A little room of allowed drawdown left to still make it there.

Just stumbled upon it. The Pitch at least sounds good "simple, set, forget, work well". Maybe the Dax, Dow or the parameters used by Tom are somehow different as compared to the BillyBar and GBP/USD . Going to read it tomorrow. Enough trading disaster for one day again

"So, I created a similar but more profitable system. I realise that some people love a simple “set and forget” system. This will work well"

For anyone interested to read. Here is the link.

https://tradertom.com/resource/break...ow-index-open/

Here's an EA so you can back-test it

The 15 minute bars for Dax and FTSE. Yesterday I thought action was a bit scrappy?

Thank you!

I am going to look at it soon. I was brainstorming some more ideas this morning while scrolling back and fourth my GBP/USD M15 chart this morning.

One idea i had was simple. Maybe too simple/naive. Trading the breakout of the previous day's low/high at a fixed sl/tp. Probably not the idea of the year but if something like that could be profitable on its own, why not. In the end it's all about making money right. At least it's simple and probably easy to even automate.

So i started my little test today and placed a sell stop at yesterday's low a few hours ago. I actually placed it a bit below the actual low but that was only by accident. My yesterday's low was 1.3792. My entry was 1.37842, my actual fill at the moment the order was executed was 1.37839. 0,3 Pips spread as usual. + the commission.

The rules. TP = 6 Pips. (Actual 5 but i made it 6 to count in the spread/com). SL = 9 Pips. Buy if price hits yesterday's high. Sell if price hits yesterday's low.

Worked out for today.



Probably that would be also easy to backtest with an EA running it over a larger sample size of existing past price action.

I am also looking at the Pivots. Got some help here. Will have to keep studying it now.

The FTMO trial challenge i started is still running and i haven't exceeded the drawdown limit yet (even if close) but still far away from the profit target i have to reach by the end of tomorrow or it will be over. I am +9860 EUR and have to end at 10500 EUR, so there is little hope.

I did one short entry here today again and gave it more room to work out, SL -20 instead of the -10 that i used yesterday and got stopped out 5 times in a row after trying so. Today it worked. I then stopped. The trade is also on my chart. The stop loss of -20 was a mental one. I think price came down to -16 against me before it finally tanked. So with -10 like yesterday i would have lost it again. All this for sure has no meaning because i wouldn't be able to repeat what i did because i had no real logical criteria for doing so that could be repeated. So let's call this pure luck.

Anyway hope you had a good day all. I got my second covid jab today and feel totally exhausted by everything, life, work, trading.

Friday music is go!
Today, more than a passing nod to Clapton, Bruce and Baker

All flat here and done for the day thanks to some nice moves to the downside. Have a great weekend!

Been a cracking trading week, all done now..



Have a great weekend!

Most of you here listen to Rock 'n' Roll right?

Have a good weekend too Fagin.

have a great weekend all

Not working for me to place orders for the correct timed ranges or i might be doing something wrong.

For example using Session 3 (London) and setting it to 10:00-10:15 (The BillyBar) should place a buy/sell stop at the red vertical lines. But here the EA is placing two orders at different locations.

we all need to be a...

Can't see this in the UK.

Works perfectly for me on live account

Aha. Well then i am perhaps doing something wrong. Let me know what your settings for trading the breakout of the 08:00-08:15 UK time range.

BillyBar statistics for August

Date | Range | First Break ≥ +5 Pips | Second Break ≥ +5 Pips | Second Break ≥ Range | Third Break ≥ +5 Pips

02/08/2021 | 4,3 | No | Yes | Yes | No
03/08/2021 | 11,8 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes
04/08/2021 | 12,3 | No | Yes | Yes | Yes
05/08/2021 | 17,1 | Yes | No | No | No
06/08/2021 | 18,8 | No | No | No | Yes
09/08/2021 | 19,3 | Yes | No | No | Yes
10/08/2021 | 15,3 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes
11/08/2021 | 5,2 | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
12/08/2021 | 9,9 | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
13/08/2021 | 7,9 | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
16/08/2021 | 8,6 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes
17/08/2021 | 11,9 | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
18/08/2021 | 11,2 | Yes | No | No | No
19/08/2021 | 10,6 | No | No | No | Yes
20/08/2021 | 13,5 | No | No | No | No
23/08/2021 | 14,4 | Yes | Yes | Yes | No
24/08/2021 | 18,4 | Yes | No | No | Yes
25/08/2021 | 12,4 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes
26/08/2021 | 9,9 | No | Yes | No | Yes
27/08/2021 | 4,8 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes
30/08/2021 | 12,9 | Yes | No | No | Yes
31/08/2021 | 10,5 | No | No | No | Yes

Total Days: 22
Average Range Size (In Pips): 11,8
First Break Win Rate reaching +5 = (15/22) 68,18%
Second Break Win Rate reaching +5 after First Break failed = (3/7) 42,86%

So thats pretty bad, even for martin gale on the second or third break you would have killed doing that (as a fix).

Last month the average range for the setup was still 18 Pips. So very compressing month. 1 day where it not reached to a +5 after breaking the range for more than 4 times.

Counting in the potential stop loss at the opposite end of the BillyBar and just taking the first break for the hole month:

Positive Pips = +75
Negative Pips = -79,9
Spread/Com = -22 Pips (22 entries) where spread+com = 1 Pips.

So that would be +75 vs -101,9. A net -26,9 Pips (or in Billy's world -26,9% without fixing and just taking the first break for +5)

Put the EA on a M1 chart and set the time to 10-00 to 10-14 if your server is +2

Think i got it, 10:00 is ok. It won't place the sell stop at the low of today's setup range because price is already lower

There is no option however to cancel a opposite order, so if a range is small and price quickly hits both ends in a second i assume it then would open both positions.

Otherwise it looks good. I am going to try backtesting the Dax/Dow idea by Tom according to the given rules. Don't have that TickDataSuite for MT4 anymore, it was only a trial version that got expired. The standard historical data that can be downloaded by MT4 would probably deliver poor results.