It Doesn't Smell Right | Forex Factory

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It Doesn't Smell Right

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 1:23am Sep 17, 2021 1:12am | Edited 1:23am
I am starting to believe Forex swing trading is a sham. All of this wild price action makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to succeed trading Forex. Scalpers might be doing OK, but swing trading no longer seems to work in this chaotic market. I see mostly irrational sideways movement on higher time frames such as the Daily, and the 4 Hour is filled with false signals.

Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #2
  • Sep 17, 2021 1:48am Sep 17, 2021 1:48am
Quoting here2there
I am starting to believe Forex swing trading is a sham. All of this wild price action makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to succeed trading Forex. Scalpers might be doing OK, but swing trading no longer seems to work in this chaotic market. I see mostly irrational sideways movement on higher time frames such as the Daily, and the 4 Hour is filled with false signals. Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
It's just fundamentals and fundamentally, forex is complete bollox.
It's just a game.
Play the game.
  • #3
  • Sep 17, 2021 1:59am Sep 17, 2021 1:59am
Thank god the swings are chaotically irrational. If not every Tom, Dick and Harry bank/institutional trader would read the swings correctly. There would be no money to make from these big boys.
Know what you trade
  • #4
  • Sep 17, 2021 1:36pm Sep 17, 2021 1:36pm
Quoting here2there
Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
Mostly now focus on stocks where swings seem still working ok.

Have some EAs on fx.. for example, this GBPUSD "swing" EA performs the best in a choppy market... still working well...

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trades opened from 1 to 8 days...

"how to deal with irrational price action?" ... with the power of money. using averaging. using SL on account 30% dd. Still can open a lot averaging levels if starting with 0.01 lots. Ok, no more than 40-60% profits yearly with capital 10k here.. but quite safe. averaging is dangerous if no SL used and too big initial volume or too small level step in pips. balancing and not be greedy. 40% yearly target is good for me.
  • #5
  • Sep 17, 2021 3:05pm Sep 17, 2021 3:05pm
Quoting gepards
{quote} Mostly now focus on stocks where swings seem still working ok. Have some EAs on fx.. for example, this GBPUSD "swing" EA performs the best in a choppy market... still working well... {image} trades opened from 1 to 8 days... "how to deal with irrational price action?" ... with the power of money. using averaging. using SL on account 30% dd. Still can open a lot averaging levels if starting with 0.01 lots. Ok, no more than 40-60% profits yearly with capital 10k here.....
Fortunately for you, you are able to trade without being restricted by FIFO rules. Not so for me. I can't have multiple positions opened with 0.01 lots and get the same results as you. The way it is set up for me when I have multiple positions opened, is I can only close out any trade I want when the lot sizes are different. For example, If I have 3 trades, one for 0.01, another for 0.02, and another for 0.03, then I can close any one of these trades at any given time. But if I have 3 positions opened at 0.01 each, then I can only close the trade that was placed first, and so on. It's incredibly unfair for US citizens.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #6
  • Sep 17, 2021 3:20pm Sep 17, 2021 3:20pm
What is your setup for swing trading?
  • #7
  • Sep 17, 2021 5:59pm Sep 17, 2021 5:59pm
Quoting Wags
What is your setup for swing trading?
I generally look at recent swing highs and swing lows, and how price responds to them.

It's messy price action like this that I have a problem with. And do note that this is a Daily chart.

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Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #8
  • Sep 17, 2021 6:52pm Sep 17, 2021 6:52pm
Quoting Wags
What is your setup for swing trading?
And also must ask, what is your time frame for swing trading?

Sure you can look at Daily as posted, but is that the trigger for entry or do you drop down to 4-hour, 1-hour?

Looks as if you like fractals highlighting the highs and lows, but I find the Close price is a better guide.

Cheers
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #9
  • Sep 17, 2021 7:15pm Sep 17, 2021 7:15pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I generally look at recent swing highs and swing lows, and how price responds to them. It's messy price action like this that I have a problem with. And do note that this is a Daily chart.
A messy chart or a messy analysis?

What do the fractal highs and lows tell you?

What do the swing lines tell you?

Maybe take the time to look at the most recent data, mark upon the chart what is important to YOU?

What is PRICE telling you?

Which PRICE do you read? I prefer the CLOSE on all time frames.

Here is my 20/20 hindsight just for you.

Cheers

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #10
  • Sep 17, 2021 7:15pm Sep 17, 2021 7:15pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} And also must ask, what is your time frame for swing trading? Sure you can look at Daily as posted, but is that the trigger for entry or do you drop down to 4-hour, 1-hour? Looks as if you like fractals highlighting the highs and lows, but I find the Close price is a better guide. Cheers
I usually trade higher time frames. Lower time frames than H4 don't work well for me. And H4 is often filled with false signals.

Yes, I look for a strong bullish or bearish candle pattern on the Daily, and for an entry on H4. The problem isn't getting into a trade, but what happens in the midst of a trade. The market is wild and messy for swing trading, as can be seen on the image I posted. It's a long wait for a trading opportunity, and when one finally shows up, it gets ugly.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #11
  • Sep 17, 2021 7:17pm Sep 17, 2021 7:17pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} A messy chart or a messy analysis? What do the fractal highs and lows tell you? What do the swing lines tell you? Maybe take the time to look at the most recent data, mark upon the chart what is important to YOU? What is PRICE telling you? Which PRICE do you read? I prefer the CLOSE on all time frames. Here is my 20/20 hindsight just for you. Cheers {image}
It always looks clear in hindsight. But you are likely a better trader than I am.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #12
  • Sep 17, 2021 8:18pm Sep 17, 2021 8:18pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It always looks clear in hindsight. But you are likely a better trader than I am.
I know what you mean



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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #13
  • Sep 18, 2021 9:05am Sep 18, 2021 9:05am
Quoting here2there
I am starting to believe Forex swing trading is a sham. All of this wild price action makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to succeed trading Forex. Scalpers might be doing OK, but swing trading no longer seems to work in this chaotic market. I see mostly irrational sideways movement on higher time frames such as the Daily, and the 4 Hour is filled with false signals. Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
The market is technically random with a few small exceptions where profits can be made occasionally. Short term trading, day trading and scalping offers the worst odds from probability standpoint. Long term macro trading is best in terms of odds but significant capital and proper automation is needed to do it effectively. The potential percentage gains from macro trading however are quite small and therefore not attractive for the small retail traders. For example, 20% yearly profit on 5K (the average retail account size according to industry data) is only 1K. This is why small traders gravitate towards short term trading with high leverage where significant gains are possible, but unfortunately not sustainable.

I invested a lot of time and money into research over the last year in order to find out if forex trading is really feasible as a business. And if yes, at what level.
My current conclusion is that forex as a potential business is not feasible for the average retail trader and results confirm this (95%+ are losing money consistently). Unless you have at least a 1 million dollars trading free capital and access to advanced automated systems you should approach forex as a small hobby and entertainment only. Keep the account size as small as possible and trade with smallest lots because your chance to win in the long term is close to zero anyway.
  • #14
  • Sep 18, 2021 9:47am Sep 18, 2021 9:47am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} The market is technically random with a few small exceptions where profits can be made occasionally. Short term trading, day trading and scalping offers the worst odds from probability standpoint. Long term macro trading is best in terms of odds but significant capital and proper automation is needed to do it effectively. The potential percentage gains from macro trading however are quite small and therefore not attractive for the small retail traders. For example, 20% yearly profit on 5K (the average retail account size according to industry...

The thing is there are traders making money and lots of it, This means its possible for the other percentage of traders to do the same

So your post is a point of view of someone not acheiving the results that are possible
  • #15
  • Sep 18, 2021 9:47am Sep 18, 2021 9:47am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I generally look at recent swing highs and swing lows, and how price responds to them. It's messy price action like this that I have a problem with. And do note that this is a Daily chart. {image}
It has nothing to do with swing trading.. it has a lot to do with your inability to read charts unfortunately.

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  • #16
  • Sep 18, 2021 10:01am Sep 18, 2021 10:01am
look for a trending market that looks like this.

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  • #17
  • Sep 18, 2021 10:08am Sep 18, 2021 10:08am
Its there to be traded but its having the foresight and confidence to see it before it happens

Just picked a random chart on H4

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  • #18
  • Sep 18, 2021 10:18am Sep 18, 2021 10:18am
Break south enter maybe

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  • #19
  • Sep 18, 2021 10:25am Sep 18, 2021 10:25am
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  • #20
  • Edited 11:11am Sep 18, 2021 10:56am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting here2there
I am starting to believe Forex swing trading is a sham. All of this wild price action makes it almost impossible for a swing trader to succeed trading Forex. Scalpers might be doing OK, but swing trading no longer seems to work in this chaotic market. I see mostly irrational sideways movement on higher time frames such as the Daily, and the 4 Hour is filled with false signals. Who here is having success swing trading Forex? And how are you coping with all of this irrational price action?
Consider what the market does over a period of a week (what BW showed us on several posts). You might want to stick to 2/3 days on some pairs. Perhaps Steve Mauro (BTMM) might have a point on the Market Maker Cycle.
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