The Strength of USD | Page 29 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

EUR/USD Strength 3 replies

Will USD gaining strength for the next couple of weeks? 7 replies

Unexpected USD strength in the last few hours 2 replies

USD short term strength? 0 replies

Change in USD Index and its effect on USD strength 8 replies

Attachments: The Strength of USD
Exit Attachments

The Strength of USD

  • #561
  • Sep 13, 2021 12:30pm Sep 13, 2021 12:30pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Actually the Win-Rate of the strategy was not high, it only won 10 times out of the 24 trades (=41%). While the strategy never risked more than 5% on a trade, it employed a 1:3-RRR which turned out to be 14%-Average-Reward versus 4.6%-Average-Risk ...
41% is very good with this strategy. Average Absolute Drawdown around 10% and Expected Max Absolute Drawdown around 66%. You will continue profitable in the long run if you don't drop much below 41%. As always, just my opinion.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #562
  • Sep 13, 2021 3:50pm Sep 13, 2021 3:50pm
Quoting JotaP
{quote} 41% is very good with this strategy. Average Absolute Drawdown around 10% and Expected Max Absolute Drawdown around 66%. You will continue profitable in the long run if you don't drop much below 41%. As always, just my opinion.
So far, the drawdown happened in 4 consecutive losses (about 20%) …
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #563
  • Sep 14, 2021 11:33pm Sep 14, 2021 11:33pm
The market has no boundaries. To successfully trade it, a trader needs to focus on just a few market conditions or behaviors before playing. Treat trading as fishing a specific type of fish which uses a specific bait …
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #564
  • Sep 15, 2021 3:50am Sep 15, 2021 3:50am
Now, the USD is at a cross road. FED still insists the USD must be stronger but given the state of the economy it will have to consider to raise interest rates for that. But this will have negative effects, otherwise they would have already done that. Wall Street is struggling, inflation not controlled, tapering on the horizon, China expecting a weaker USD.
I am keen to see what will happen in the next days. I still believe that in short term the EUR/USD will fall aiming for 1.175 or lower tricking more sellers into the move and get liquidity from them when it reverts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: f4f687907a47dd5e1d5a25f7ef0fd2ef.png Size: 122 KB
higher.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #565
  • Sep 15, 2021 6:31am Sep 15, 2021 6:31am
Quoting JotaP
… I still believe that in short term the EUR/USD will fall aiming for 1.175 or lower ...
At which point (level) will you consider your analysis is wrong?
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #566
  • Sep 15, 2021 12:20pm Sep 15, 2021 12:20pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} At which point (level) will you consider your analysis is wrong?
At the moment, I don't think it will be much wrong. It is moving down. Market Makers have lots of liquidity to collect below the "support" level at 1.1800. It may continue down for at least another 20 pips to collect the stop losses. I am open to be wrong, of course.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #567
  • Edited 9:18pm Sep 15, 2021 5:44pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting JotaP
{quote} At the moment, I don't think it will be much wrong. It is moving down. Market Makers have lots of liquidity to collect below the "support" level at 1.1800. It may continue down for at least another 20 pips to collect the stop losses. I am open to be wrong, of course.
Are you trying to buy or sell? Isn’t 1.1750 your current target?
Btw, having a contingency plan is the proper risk management practice. If you are open to be wrong, be wrong technically by determining a level …
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #568
  • Edited 11:29pm Sep 15, 2021 11:06pm | Edited 11:29pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Are you trying to buy or sell? Isn’t 1.1750 your current target? Btw, having a contingency plan is the proper risk management practice. If you are open to be wrong, be wrong technically by determining a level …
If it breaks above 1.85 I will consider that it is going to push further upwards because there is liquidity there to be collected. But Smart Money needs to collect first the liquidity that is below 1.80 and may well go below 1.1750.

Well, prices don't move because chart indicators say so or because we have drawn nice trendlines. But support and resistance zones have a meaning in all time frames. We need to (attempt) to think like Central Banks and other Smart Money entities. They have an advantage, they know were the liquidity is (but we can also suspect where it is) and their algorithms will find the best path to maximize the collection.

Do you know these guys?

"We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall."
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #569
  • Sep 16, 2021 12:15am Sep 16, 2021 12:15am
Quoting JotaP
If it breaks above 1.85 I will consider that it is going to push further upwards ... and may well go below 1.1750 ...
I will assume you meant 1.1850 (not 1.85) ...
After having a tradable range, we can then calculate a planned EP based on 1:3-RRR as follows:
Sell-Limit EUR @ 1.1825 —> 1.1850 / 1.1750 ... [-25 vs +75]

Note: I just want to give an illustration of how we arrive planning a 1:3-RRR trade, not to discuss any fundamental and/or technical analysis ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #570
  • Sep 16, 2021 12:50am Sep 16, 2021 12:50am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} I will assume you meant 1.1850 (not 1.85) ... After having a tradable range, we can then calculate a planned EP based on 1:3-RRR as follows: Sell-Limit EUR @ 1.1825 —> 1.1850 / 1.1750 ... [-25 vs +75] Note: I just want to give an illustration of how we arrive planning a 1:3-RRR trade, not to discuss any fundamental and/or technical analysis ...
Thank you for notifying the wrong values, I tend to do it on EURUSD even when placing orders. Need to fix my mind about that.

I understand how you establish your levels. In general the odds will be in your favor if you spot good entry points.

For risk management, namely to establish lot sizes I always make a first calculation based on the ATR, then will adjust based on my convictions about the trend and liquidity zones.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #571
  • Sep 16, 2021 2:42am Sep 16, 2021 2:42am
Quoting JotaP
… to establish lot sizes …
To determine the lot-size of the planned trade, I use the 5%-Maximum-Risk limit …
Let’s assume the account = 10000 pips. Its 5% = 500 pips.
Taking the above example, the planned order will become:
Sell-Limit 19 EUR @ 1.1825 —> 1.1850 / 1.1750 … [-475 vs +1425]

Note: Since I try not to exceed the 5%, I will use 499 pips as reference instead of 500 pips.
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #572
  • Sep 16, 2021 3:20am Sep 16, 2021 3:20am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} To determine the lot-size of the planned trade, I use the 5%-Maximum-Risk limit … Let’s assume the account = 10000 pips. Its 5% = 500 pips. Taking the above example, the planned order will become: Sell-Limit 19 EUR @ 1.1825 —> 1.1850 / 1.1750 … [-475 vs +1425] Note: Since I try not to exceed the 5%, I will use 499 pips as reference instead of 500 pips.
That is a rule of thumb, which only takes into account the amount of capital you want to risk on each trade. This is the poker way.

There are better ways that take into account the the recent candles sizes on that Time Frame, like below:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1b0f5e8323f14d5450fc2a594dcbbef9.png Size: 58 KB


A value for the SL above 2xATR is highly improbable to be reached, in particular if the market is trending in our favor or is ranging.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #573
  • Edited 4:36am Sep 16, 2021 4:02am | Edited 4:36am
Quoting JotaP
That is a rule of thumb, which only takes into account the amount of capital you want to risk on each trade ...
Yes, I try to source my trading strategies internally as much as possible without depending on outside indicators, except the charts.

The reason why I’m willing to risk about 5% on each trade (which is quite big for some) is because my trade frequency is low and I will pass all trades that have (EP-SL) < 50pips.
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #574
  • Sep 16, 2021 7:22am Sep 16, 2021 7:22am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Yes, I try to source my trading strategies internally as much as possible without depending on outside indicators, except the charts. The reason why I’m willing to risk about 5% on each trade (which is quite big for some) is because my trade frequency is low and I will pass all trades that have (EP-SL) < 50pips.
The most important is to reach a point in time where we become sure that we have a strategy that works most of the time. This is called to be consistent.
I took a long time to become consistent and it happened when I discarded all sorts of indicators - after trying hundreds of them, modifying them, crossing them and reinventing them. Finally, I understood why indicators, in general, can't help.
I don't use any chart indicators. I only use multicurrency and multicorrelation tools not attached to any chart (can be called indicators, after all, but not in the classic sense).
The most important is a good naked eye look at charts.

Of course, other people think otherwise, although I don't understand why they can be consistent trading with charts loaded with indicators.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #575
  • Sep 16, 2021 8:37am Sep 16, 2021 8:37am
Quoting JotaP
... The most important is a good naked eye look at charts ...
Learn to identify the impulse and corrective waves of a trend, and know when a trend changes its direction ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #576
  • Sep 16, 2021 10:34am Sep 16, 2021 10:34am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Learn to identify the impulse and corrective waves of a trend, and know when a trend changes its direction ...
Absolutely, although a few times times it is repricing (no real market demand) from the Algorithm to make people jump in and be trapped.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #577
  • Sep 16, 2021 8:07pm Sep 16, 2021 8:07pm
Trend and wave recognitions can’t be automated, only identified visually …
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #578
  • Sep 17, 2021 12:15am Sep 17, 2021 12:15am
Quoting 4for4
Trend and wave recognitions can’t be automated, only identified visually …
Naked eye view is the best way, it provides real insight when we know what what to look for. There are indicators for trend and waves, but you will only lose money by using them.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #579
  • Sep 17, 2021 12:25am Sep 17, 2021 12:25am
Quoting JotaP
{quote} Naked eye view is the best way, it provides real insight when we know what what to look for. There are indicators for trend and waves, but you will only lose money by using them.
All indicators are lagging, while trading is about the future …
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #580
  • Sep 17, 2021 5:04am Sep 17, 2021 5:04am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} All indicators are lagging, while trading is about the future …
Brokers love to promote indicators, they know they don't work most of the time. At least 99% of them don't.
Smart Money have their own strategy. Only when we can figure that strategy out we can increase our win rate.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
1 trader viewing now