My OSAMA System | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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My OSAMA System

  • #21
  • Nov 10, 2006 12:18pm Nov 10, 2006 12:18pm
Didnt you had one already sold in EUR/USD from 1.2771?

I remember you telling me this is in one thread in Forex Discussion room..
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  • #22
  • Nov 10, 2006 12:23pm Nov 10, 2006 12:23pm
Quoting lifetime_trader
Didnt you had one already sold in EUR/USD from 1.2771?

I remember you telling me this is in one thread in Forex Discussion room..
...why dont you lets the guy post its trades and see what happens...
  • #23
  • Nov 10, 2006 12:32pm Nov 10, 2006 12:32pm
Quoting lifetime_trader
Didnt you had one already sold in EUR/USD from 1.2771?

I remember you telling me this is in one thread in Forex Discussion room..
yes...but that closed..and then I had a long trade...and now I have another sell....?
  • #24
  • Nov 10, 2006 12:35pm Nov 10, 2006 12:35pm
Quoting aicccia
If I risk 10% on a $1000 mini account with a eur/usd trade and lose 20 pips on a bad trade, I've only lost $40, disregarding spread.
Wouldn't 10% be $100?
  • #25
  • Nov 10, 2006 12:52pm Nov 10, 2006 12:52pm
Quoting hidethereal
Wouldn't 10% be $100?
This is what I was confused about. If you risk 10% on a trade, and you lose the trade, you've lost 10%, so your drawdown is already 10% if you lose one trade. Maybe you set a stop at say 100 pips and that is your 10% risk, but you close the trade way before it hits that 100 pips?

But as you said, if you lose 20 pips, you lose $40. That right there is 4%, so if you lose two trades in a row, you're at 8% drawdown give or take a few fractions of a percent.

I'm just trying to understand how you can risk so much and have such little drawdown.
  • #26
  • Nov 10, 2006 10:14pm Nov 10, 2006 10:14pm
Let me see if I can get this right. On Oanda, I can choose to entry a trade by units or a percentage of my account size. I can say I wish to trade at 5% per entry, but depending on my stoploss, I don't have to lose 5% of my account. If I set my stoploss at 100 pips away, then I would be losing 5% of my account which is what I was trading with. But most of the time, my stoploss would be less than 100 pips so therefore, my draw down can be of a smaller percentage.
  • #27
  • Edited 11:34pm Nov 10, 2006 11:03pm | Edited 11:34pm
Drawdown and risk, though related, are not the same.
Assume I have a $1000 mini account.

Risk is the percentage of your accounts equity that you're using as leverage for a trade. If I "risk" 10% on a trade, and the trade goes bad, 10% is not what I lose. Drawdown is what I lose. Drawdown is the value of each pip(determined by your risk, this is how they are related) x the number of pips. Risk determines how quickly you lose or make money, not how much. Pips determide the actual amount. If you will think of risk as a slope, it's steepness(degree of risk) determines how quickly you can move up and down it.

With my $1000 account:

5% risk ($1 a pip) + (-10 pips) = -$10 = Drawdown
10% risk ($2 a pip) + (-10 pips) = -$20 = Drawdown
20% risk ($4 a pip) + (-10 pips) = -$40 = Drawdown
5% risk ($1 a pip) + (-20 pips) = -$20 = Drawdown
10% risk ($2 a pip) + (-20 pips) = -$40 = Drawdown
20% risk ($4 a pip) + (-20 pips) = -$80 = Drawdown
5% risk ($1 a pip) + (-40 pips) = -$40 = Drawdown
10% risk ($2 a pip) + (-40 pips) = -$80 = Drawdown
20% risk ($4 a pip) + (-40 pips) = -$160 = Drawdown

 I hope this clears up any confusion. Just ask if you have more question.
  • #28
  • Nov 11, 2006 2:27pm Nov 11, 2006 2:27pm
Quoting aicccia
Drawdown and risk, though related, are not the same.
Assume I have a $1000 mini account.

Risk is the percentage of your accounts equity that you're using as leverage for a trade. If I "risk" 10% on a trade, and the trade goes bad, 10% is not what I lose. Drawdown is what I lose. Drawdown is the value of each pip(determined by your risk, this is how they are related) x the number of pips. Risk determines how quickly you lose or make money, not how much. Pips determide the actual amount. If you will think of risk as a slope, it's steepness(degree of risk) determines how quickly you can move up and down it.

With my $1000 account:

5% risk ($1 a pip) + (-10 pips) = -$10 = Drawdown
10% risk ($2 a pip) + (-10 pips) = -$20 = Drawdown
20% risk ($4 a pip) + (-10 pips) = -$40 = Drawdown
5% risk ($1 a pip) + (-20 pips) = -$20 = Drawdown
10% risk ($2 a pip) + (-20 pips) = -$40 = Drawdown
20% risk ($4 a pip) + (-20 pips) = -$80 = Drawdown
5% risk ($1 a pip) + (-40 pips) = -$40 = Drawdown
10% risk ($2 a pip) + (-40 pips) = -$80 = Drawdown
20% risk ($4 a pip) + (-40 pips) = -$160 = Drawdown

 I hope this clears up any confusion. Just ask if you have more question.

This link will explain how trade risk is calculated.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=3690
  • #29
  • Nov 11, 2006 2:32pm Nov 11, 2006 2:32pm
Quoting hidethereal
This link will explain how trade risk is calculated.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=3690


You know, I've been reading your name as hide-the-real. I just realized you may mean it to be read as hid-ethereal. Is that right sir? What does it mean?

Thanks

Dial
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  • #30
  • Nov 11, 2006 8:48pm Nov 11, 2006 8:48pm
Quoting diallist


You know, I've been reading your name as hide-the-real. I just realized you may mean it to be read as hid-ethereal. Is that right sir? What does it mean?

Thanks

Dial
You were spot on the first time.

It was actually a part of a phrase I saw on a t-shirt one time that said "drugs hide the real you". The "hide the real" part just stuck in my head for some reason.


And thats how I became hidethereal. Wish it was more exciting LOL.
  • #31
  • Edited Nov 12, 2006 1:02am Nov 11, 2006 11:52pm | Edited Nov 12, 2006 1:02am
After further review of my system, I'm realized that my numbers were off a bit. To acheive 200% a month as I claimed, would require an investment of 9% risk, instead of 5%, in each trade. This 9% only brings a 7% drawdown so it shouldn't be a problem.

If 5% is risked per trade then the rate of return is only about 55% a month.
  • #32
  • Nov 12, 2006 12:02am Nov 12, 2006 12:02am
Quoting aicccia
After further review of my system, I'm relized that my numbers were off a bit. To acheive 200% a month as I claimed, would require an investment of 9% risk, instead of 5%, in each trade. This 9% only brings a 7% drawdown so it shouldn't bring any problems.

If 5% is risked per trade then the rate of return is only about 55% a month.

I'll be changing the first post to reflect this.

How can 9% risk only bring 7% drawdown? You need to read the link I posted because I don't think you are understanding how to calculate your risk per trade.
  • #33
  • Nov 12, 2006 12:19am Nov 12, 2006 12:19am
Quoting hidethereal
How can 9% risk only bring 7% drawdown? You need to read the link I posted because I don't think you are understanding how to calculate your risk per trade.
I understand it, this is how.

$1000 mini account.

I open a trade with 10% risk where each pip is worth $2.

The trade goes negative 20 pips and I close it.

20(pips I lost) x 2(value of each pip)= -$40 that I lost.

The -$40 is my drawdown, and you'll see that it's less than the 10% of $1000 which was my risk. My drawdown percentage in this case was 4%, which is less than my risk percentage 10%. That's how.
  • #34
  • Nov 12, 2006 12:46am Nov 12, 2006 12:46am
You guys may be throwing a great chance to learn a thing or two you know? How do you know that Aicccia is not a born trader and has found a system that would lead to great returns? Now all you can do here is worry and point out some mathamatical problems.

It is true what many have said, people post a strategy they use on the board and all people do is pick at it. This is Aicccia's thread, leave it be. I know most of the questions were legit as far as risk and reward potential, though enough is enough.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #35
  • Nov 12, 2006 12:49am Nov 12, 2006 12:49am
Quoting StockKJay
You guys may be throwing a great chance to learn a thing or two you know? How do you know that Aicccia is not a born trader and has found a system that would lead to great returns? Now all you can do here is worry and point out some mathamatical problems.

It is true what many have said, people post a strategy they use on the board and all people do is pick at it. This is Aicccia's thread, leave it be. I know most of the questions were legit as far as risk and reward potential, though enough is enough.
it's okay, I would be doubting too if I was in their shoes. The risk vs drawdown question is starting to bug me a bit though. I can't explain risk vs drawdown any better. If you still don't understand I'm sorry.
  • #36
  • Nov 12, 2006 2:47am Nov 12, 2006 2:47am
Allright, lets focus on the trades guys. what happend to the first trade you took?
Contact me for Custom Indicators/EAs.
  • #37
  • Nov 12, 2006 2:50am Nov 12, 2006 2:50am
Quoting zalakinc
Allright, lets focus on the trades guys. what happend to the first trade you took?
that trade won't be over till around tuesday morning but I'm +10 pips right now.
  • #38
  • Nov 12, 2006 5:09am Nov 12, 2006 5:09am
aiccia has already booked some major losses in short eur/usd trade earlier this week, those are not included in this journal.
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  • #39
  • Nov 12, 2006 11:27am Nov 12, 2006 11:27am
Quoting StockKJay
You guys may be throwing a great chance to learn a thing or two you know? How do you know that Aicccia is not a born trader and has found a system that would lead to great returns? Now all you can do here is worry and point out some mathamatical problems.

It is true what many have said, people post a strategy they use on the board and all people do is pick at it. This is Aicccia's thread, leave it be. I know most of the questions were legit as far as risk and reward potential, though enough is enough.
I'm trying to help him out, which is why I posted a link. Money management is the most important part of any system and your going to send a system into the dirt if you can't get your risk per trade right.
  • #40
  • Nov 12, 2006 11:48am Nov 12, 2006 11:48am
Quoting lifetime_trader
aiccia has already booked some major losses in short eur/usd trade earlier this week, those are not included in this journal.
well I was short at around 1.2771, but I got out at 1.2786, loss of 15 pips. That's a very small loss to me, and it was my only loss last week.

Why would you claim that I had major losses last week when all you knew was a single point where I entered??

Nvm though, it's errelevent.
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