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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #59,581
  • Sep 9, 2021 6:46am Sep 9, 2021 6:46am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Thanks - with the 'brokers' most here use (self included) they know where your stop is and the infamous MT4 plug in come in to its own increasing spreads etc.
And they've managed to brainwash a whole industry. If they were swimming instructors they'd be saying NEVER hold your breath, if you do you'll drown...
  • #59,582
  • Sep 9, 2021 6:47am Sep 9, 2021 6:47am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} And they've managed to brainwash a whole industry. If they were swimming instructors they'd be saying NEVER hold your breath, if you do you'll drown...
Lol perhaps that's what happened to Billy - hope he's ok wherever he maybe to be serious.
  • #59,583
  • Sep 9, 2021 6:54am Sep 9, 2021 6:54am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Lol perhaps that's what happened to Billy - hope he's ok wherever he maybe to be serious.
I think he won the euromillions lotto... hope so.
  • #59,584
  • Sep 9, 2021 7:10am Sep 9, 2021 7:10am
Good enough
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  • #59,585
  • Sep 9, 2021 7:41am Sep 9, 2021 7:41am
Quoting claudia1
Good enough {image}
Ftse and Dow on the one Minute -
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,586
  • Sep 9, 2021 7:45am Sep 9, 2021 7:45am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Ftse and Dow on the one Minute - {image} {image}
Good stuff. Am going to add Dax open to this ea and all the other market opens.
  • #59,587
  • Sep 9, 2021 8:19am Sep 9, 2021 8:19am
Quoting claudia1
@T - FTSE again. Lem have a look at Doncaster if you're around. Mr Gosden has 3 or 4 interesting entries. {image}
Hi Claudia. Good luck with them. I have vet duties today, so won't be doing much of anything else all day.
  • #59,588
  • Sep 9, 2021 9:17am Sep 9, 2021 9:17am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I'm simply trading range breakouts without hard stops and taking adr into account. Generally look for reversals off a high - 90% of my trades are GU and 90% sells. Pivots are important to me for entry on the daily. FTSE, NTBB, US30, EJ (thanks to ikdenk for reminding me of the Dreams ea) are a different matter as I will only trade them with the new advisor using a hard stop. Haven't answered your questions too well I know, but it's so difficult as we are all different in our approach. Also I am happy to add to losing trades and fight my...
Thank you Claudia. It's a very good answer. So as i understand your 'main' trading is a little more 'flexible' and not so much systematized in a mechanical way. That is awesome and great if that works for you. I can only envy you for that and to encourage you to keep doing it. There are probably not many who can do that.

Do you then have a specific result/monetary oriented goal in mind that you try to hit at the end of x period, like a week, month, quarter, year? Because "fight my way back to profit" sounds to me like there is. And it makes sense to me. Otherwise you should probably just keep trading your setups how they keep popping up on the screen and that would take care of these losses on its own then. At least that is what i understand, why people want to apply a positive risk to reward for their entries, to make sure these winners then will compensate for the losses without having to place x further trades on x new setup/strategy (having to fix).

To me it so far looks like that trading with a specific monetary goal in mind (for example to realize a living at the end of a month) is a different beast and the usual advice you can read about in books and the internet is probably not what you really need to know.

For example you then often hear all these gurus and experts talking about the "expected value" or "expectancy". One user told me the expectancy is king but that's kind a hard to calculate with a strategy where "fixing a trade" or say "fighting back to profit" is what makes the difference of realizing a profitable P/L at the end of that x period. Maybe even reached the actual profit target for that period instead of just having it fixed for break even. Or, well not.

Here a quote i found on the net

Quote
Trading expectancy is a calculation that shows what the typical profit is for each trade placed. If it's negative, the strategy is a loser.

So that would mean for the BillyBar setup/strategy with a typical risk:reward of 3:1 (5 Pips take profit, 15 Pips stop loss) that "trading expectancy" is out the window right from the beginning. BUT, does that mean the strategy is/has to be a losing one IF i will have it fixed and be net profitable by the end of x period again? Probably all these in theory nice sounding maths with having a positive trade expectancy in case of fixing to me looks obsolete.

Anyway, all that is just still giving me a lot of food to think about.

I hope we will find something working out together with that upcoming EA and FTSE, US30. To me there is nothing much to lose at the moment, things only can get better hah.

Have a good day all.
  • #59,589
  • Sep 9, 2021 10:28am Sep 9, 2021 10:28am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hi Claudia. Good luck with them. I have vet duties today, so won't be doing much of anything else all day.
3 wins from Gosden and Hayley got a place at 15/2 in the first race. Good day.
  • #59,590
  • Sep 9, 2021 12:22pm Sep 9, 2021 12:22pm
BillyBar, high broke and worked out for the +5. Range 11,2 Pips. Missed it.

First look at a chart today for me. So today seems to be one of these rare occurrence GBP/USD after crossing the high or low trigger of the BillyBar just keeps going into that direction. Let's call that a trending day. I am still not sure how to benefit from that as you only know it after the event.

I thought of maybe splitting my hole risk unit for the first break trade entry. So say instead of targeting the +5 Pips TP at one full 10 lots i might target only a 5 Lots for 5 Pips and let the other half untouched. However the problematic then seems to be how far you let it go and where do you cut the loss for it. Most of the days it will come back to hit the opposite end of the BillyBar trigger and then in sum even if booking some larger profits on these trending days you would then still give it away again booking all these many losing examples too.

It somehow seems to be a waste to leave these many pips on the table while "only" targeting 5 Pips. Not that i started to become greedy but i just thought of it as a way to fix/compensate for the losing days to stay overall profitable for at least +5 by the end of a week. Not sure but doesn't seem to work like that.

Looking and the day before to the left side of the chart you have the direct example where leaving the trade running for "more" would have stopped me out instead. The +5 however was reached. So i would have ended up with a loss instead looking for that "more" then.

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  • #59,591
  • Edited 1:53pm Sep 9, 2021 1:34pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thank you Claudia. It's a very good answer. So as i understand your 'main' trading is a little more 'flexible' and not so much systematized in a mechanical way. That is awesome and great if that works for you. I can only envy you for that and to encourage you to keep doing it. There are probably not many who can do that. Do you then have a specific result/monetary oriented goal in mind that you try to hit at the end of x period, like a week, month, quarter, year? Because "fight my way back to profit" sounds to me like there is. And it makes...
Yep I think in terms of £'s not points/pips. Have weekly target.

Start the day being positive, tell yourself 'I will make money !'

Have a plan but be flexible. Markets are volatile as you know.
  • #59,592
  • Sep 9, 2021 5:27pm Sep 9, 2021 5:27pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} FTSE is more inline with the strategy it gets better
@q_import

Regarding the indicator i am looking for. Something like that.

Settings

# General
_Mode = Boxed/Lined
_GMT Offset = +3
_startTime = 10:00
_endTime = 10:15
_Use Buffer = Yes/No
_Buffer = 0.0
_Show For X Last Days = 20

# Take Profit Levels
_Show Take Profit Levels = Yes/No
_Take Profit Line Style = dotted
_Take Profit Line Color = Green
_Take Profit Price Font = Arial
_Take Profit Price Font Size = 12
_Take Profit Price Font Color = Grey
_TP 1 = 5.0
_TP 2 = 10.0
_TP 3 = 25.0

# Additional Range Information
_Show Range High Price = Yes/No
_Range High Price Font = Arial
_Range High Price Font Size = 12
_Range High Price Color = Green

_Show Range Low Price = Yes/No
_Range Low Price Font = Arial
_Range Low Price Font Size = 12
_Range Low Price Color = Green

_Show Range Size in Pips = Yes/No
_Range Size in Pips Font = Arial
_Range Size Price Font Size = 12
_Range Size Price Color = Grey

#Boxed Mode (if used)
_Box Fill Color = #E1E1E1
_Box Width = 250 px
_Show High/Low Lines = Yes/No

#Lines Mode (if used)
_High/Low Line Style = solid
_High Price Line Color = Green
_Low Price Line Color = Red

Example Boxed Mode (no buffer)
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Example Lines Mode (no buffer)
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Example Lines Mode (with buffer, example 3.0 Pips)
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  • #59,593
  • Edited 5:54pm Sep 9, 2021 5:39pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} @q_import Regarding the indicator i am looking for. Something like that. Settings # General _Mode = Boxed/Lined _GMT Offset = +3 _startTime = 10:00 _endTime = 10:15 _Use Buffer = Yes/No _Buffer = 0.0 _Show For X Last Days = 20 # Take Profit Levels _Show Take Profit Levels = Yes/No _Take Profit Line Style = dotted _Take Profit Line Color = Green _Take Profit Price Font = Arial _Take Profit Price Font Size = 12 _Take Profit Price Font Color = Grey _TP 1 = 5.0 _TP 2 = 10.0 _TP 3 = 25.0 # Additional Range Information _Show Range High Price =...
Ok I will work it.. Give me some time to work out saving of data to file that way you can work statistics..
I use a similar setup already based on monthly I can scale it down to intraday.

reminds me of Xaphod's indicator for sessions..
another is sm_WorkTime_v1.5 indicator
Attached Image
  • #59,594
  • Sep 9, 2021 6:30pm Sep 9, 2021 6:30pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Yep I think in terms of £'s not points/pips. Have weekly target. Start the day being positive, tell yourself 'I will make money !' Have a plan but be flexible. Markets are volatile as you know.
Yes, exactly. I so far also haven't found a restaurant where you can pay in points/pips...
  • #59,595
  • Sep 9, 2021 6:46pm Sep 9, 2021 6:46pm


Inserted Video
  • #59,596
  • Edited 7:41pm Sep 9, 2021 7:17pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Not meaning to jump in and answer for Claudia but just an observation, you seem to be stuck on SL. I only know 2 other successful pro traders and they don't use them...
I know a 100 more traders now working at Burger King again after they decided to do the no stop tactic. Where can I please talk to these professionals sir? :-)

All I read and hear from so called pro traders is exactly the opposite. Before they even think about where to enter they
would know exactly where to be out, let alone slippage and some black swan event that might still would erase such pre defined risk limit and showing you the middle finger.

So you say I shall not stuck in a „where to define my stop loss“ loop and instead let my $1000/Pip trade float against me by a 1000 Pips instead cutting the loss somewhere if it doesn’t reach the +5 target.

If you hear that Goldman Sachs, let me be your no stop loss trader please, I can do that

I will pack in my Super Martin Gale Bot 7.1 Deluxe Edition too and book the next flight... I take 10% of all my returns and in case of your company goes downhill, it wasn’t me...
  • #59,597
  • Sep 9, 2021 7:35pm Sep 9, 2021 7:35pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Ok I will work it.. Give me some time to work out saving of data to file that way you can work statistics.. I use a similar setup already based on monthly I can scale it down to intraday. reminds me of Xaphod's indicator for sessions.. another is sm_WorkTime_v1.5 indicator {image}
Thank you, there is no rush, if you can do this, take your time.
  • #59,598
  • Sep 9, 2021 10:50pm Sep 9, 2021 10:50pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Not meaning to jump in and answer for Claudia but just an observation, you seem to be stuck on SL. I only know 2 other successful pro traders and they don't use them...
No stop loss does not mean no stop loss people hedge in different ways to emulate a stop 1 trade is not a single trade. Every trade has multiple back ups so that profit will not be an issue of loss. You may be trading Spreads while trading Euros and maybe Eurodollars at the same time to offset a stop loss or maybe a future and request for physical so the product can be packaged and delivered while you are watching or listening to a youtube video or other form of investment information there is a back end that is not discussed and the people in those videos or documents are not being 100% about the information saying it but leaving the details out of the conversation and just generalizing it for consumption so that it not boring the listener or viewer. Fagin could you kindly give a detailed example of trading without a stop loss spare no detail as to the reasoning behind every trade and why the multiple trades where made.
  • #59,599
  • Sep 10, 2021 1:03am Sep 10, 2021 1:03am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I know a 100 more traders now working at Burger King again after they decided to do the no stop tactic. Where can I please talk to these professionals sir? :-) All I read and hear from so called pro traders is exactly the opposite. Before they even think about where to enter they would know exactly where to be out, let alone slippage and some black swan event that might still would erase such pre defined risk limit and showing you the middle finger. So you say I shall not stuck in a „where to define my stop loss“ loop and instead let my...
I use an 8 pip SL when i place a trade, when it moves +10 i move SL to B/E, many might say irs waaay too close but it works for me, yes i get a few B/E stop outs per day, rather that than a loss, here's my current position on FTSE taken in the wee small hours this morning, on the break of the open
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  • #59,600
  • Sep 10, 2021 2:14am Sep 10, 2021 2:14am
Quoting q_import
{quote} No stop loss does not mean no stop loss people hedge in different ways to emulate a stop 1 trade is not a single trade. Every trade has multiple back ups so that profit will not be an issue of loss. You may be trading Spreads while trading Euros and maybe Eurodollars at the same time to offset a stop loss or maybe a future and request for physical so the product can be packaged and delivered while you are watching or listening to a youtube video or other form of investment information there is a back end that is not discussed and the people...
"No stop loss does not mean no stop loss" Correct..

Show me a single shot trade plan with a fixed stop loss that makes money... all these systems on Forex Factory, where is it?
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