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Old School Percentage Trading

  • #21
  • Edited 6:14pm Sep 1, 2021 5:57pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi rosspetX, you wrote an honest view. That's why I wrote traditional TA lacks this direction info making it useless. If the trader knows direction then he can simply press the buy/sell button at any crossroad. How many traders knew the direction for GU today is up 64pips to profit from it?


BWilliams,

You should know by now that I don't waste my time with tools and approaches that do not work medium to long term. Therefore, I don't speak about things that I just 'read in a book' and now declare "this is the best/only way to do it". I use only those things that work on every market and are present in every market. It's the only way to really learn, otherwise a person system hops or tool hops or seeks an EA to trade for them. I'm afraid just because you wrote something about 'traditional TA' has nothing to do with real life and trading in real time. If a person bothers to cast aside everything they "think" they "already know" about trading and ONLY take on what I have shown here already, along with some sensible money and future management, then they would probably outperform most "traders" on FF and elsewhere. Why? Because you're only dealing with the market and the aspects that interact and not a story to mask a person's fear or ignorance or over-confidence.

And yes, to some of us the GBPUSD made a lovely move and yes it was pretty easy to see coming. That is not arrogance or 'know it all' rubbish, that's just experience. I will say to you what I say to everyone, deal with your personal issues and then they won't interfere with your vision to see what is happening.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #22
  • Sep 1, 2021 6:07pm Sep 1, 2021 6:07pm
Quoting Rixmix
{quote} Thanks for posting this, just made me think twice. Old school, what does that mean. I'm an engineer and sometimes the old school stuff still works which we can learn from and we should learn from our pasts for better or the worst. Things have changed so much sense I started my trade (some decades ago) best example Computers vs Tracing paper for design engineers. I am not saying that some people could not make that theory work, more look at it as a tool for your toolbox.


Rixmix,

The markets haven't changed as much as you may think or believe or as people keep saying. I started using counter trend lines back in the 80's because I saw that rate of change affected the way perception is making me trade. So I stopped isolating my view with the use of normal pro-momentum trend lines. Some tools are useful in certain situations while others are good all the time. If the person has marshmallow for brains then even a tool with a 100% Win SR is going to fail them. So my experience tells me as does yours, the person wielding the tech, or the tool, or the spreadsheet, or the price chart without addressing their biases/prejudices and their limitations or blockages, is surely going to run into strife.

So yes while the outward parts may have changed, the internal elements have not changed.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #23
  • Sep 1, 2021 7:55pm Sep 1, 2021 7:55pm
Another Old School methodology that has withstood the test of time, is the dual direction profitability. I just call it that, but it's been called many things in the past.

Below is an example ........

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Imagine for a sec, that you have identified a strong big picture bias. And it's going sideways. NOW look at that pic. Does it seem sensible to consider what likely outcomes will arrive from this paired observation? Of course it does because once you understand that you're working within a controlled, self contained environment, then the rest is pretty simple. When people use selfish desire and greed as their compass to guide and gauge their approach and their trading mindset, then you know they've strayed from using common sense. And they are not working with the market, they are expecting the market to do their bidding and bend to their will. To me, this is why so many of these stupid arguments arise.

My motto is this = What you are like, in real life, is how you'll be in your trading.

The dual probability approach is a great way see your options. But only when you are willing to learn from your mistakes and assumptions.

The two others that can help also ......

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Study them and see what you can learn. The more 'options' you come up with instead of chasing 'facts' or 'answers', the more you learn through your experiences.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #24
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:06pm Sep 1, 2021 8:06pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Another Old School methodology that has withstood the test of time, is the dual direction profitability. I just call it that, but it's been called many things in the past. Below is an example ........ {image} Imagine for a sec, that you have identified a strong big picture bias. And it's going sideways. NOW look at that pic. Does it seem sensible to consider what likely outcomes will arrive from this paired observation? Of course it does because once you understand that you're working within a controlled, self contained environment, then the rest...
Awesome Peter. i see why lots of people get lost. but i don't think you could trade only using this idea right? it looks too simple. are those your trades on those pics? they look good.

hope i'm not being too forward.
I believe simple is best
  • #25
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:22pm Sep 1, 2021 8:22pm
Quoting ArnoldPike
{quote} Awesome Peter. i see why lots of people get lost. but i don't think you could trade only using this idea right? it looks too simple. are those your trades on those pics? they look good. hope i'm not being too forward.


It's fine Arnie. I know one person who has been trading longer than me and ALL she uses is what I have shown here on this thread re: technical analysis. She also uses real world details and knowledge to help distinguish where the world is up to. So you can make it as simple OR complex as you want, but whether you're talking about 100,000 yrs ago or today in 2021, common sense is always the same. No those trades on the pics are actually done by someone else from another thread during a discussion we were having. I grabbed them to draw up the structural probability overview you see over the top of the charts. I did that to show them how to perceive something beyond the chart itself.

For one person, an entry within say, the 25% quarter, may be another person's exit. So one person's 25% is another person's 75% etc. Most people do not naturally think in probabilities. And in 2021 this is a real problem. For eg. you can see this reflected in people's thinking re: this worldwide virus stuff. I'm sure I'll make people upset by saying that probabilities NOT statistics, do not lie. Stats can be fudged. And objective observations bridge the gap. That's all I'll say about that. It's the same with trading. When you introduce context into your probability awareness, the usual, run-of-the-mill crap that people are fed within this industry, stop making sense. And this is when you begin to see if your broker is weak/greedy and is cheating or working against you.

I hope that helps.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #26
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:30pm Sep 1, 2021 8:30pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} It's fine Arnie. I know one person who has been trading longer than me and ALL she uses is what I have shown here on this thread re: technical analysis. She also uses real world details and knowledge to help distinguish where the world is up to. So you can make it as simple OR complex as you want, but whether you're talking about 100,000 yrs ago or today in 2021, common sense is always the same. No those trades on the pics are actually done by someone else from another thread during a discussion we were having. I grabbed them to draw up...
thanks for explaining that Peter. yeah i gotta say its making my head spin a bit but i can see the use of what youre talking about. I want you to know its cool that you're sharing this. i know some people will not agree but thats ok.
I believe simple is best
  • #27
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:40pm Sep 1, 2021 8:40pm
Quoting ArnoldPike
{quote} thanks for explaining that Peter. yeah i gotta say its making my head spin a bit but i can see the use of what youre talking about. I want you to know its cool that you're sharing this. i know some people will not agree but thats ok.


Well people have a choice to make don't they. Think or don't think. Learn or don't learn. It might be Sept 2021 but I don't see people generally being any smarter than they were 10 or 20 or 30yrs ago. They just have more distractions and like to take credit for other people's inventions especially in the field of technology. But interestingly don't want the potential negative consequences of being ignorant of many things. What people must understand, is if you won't think for yourself, there are plenty of others out there who would LOVE to have that power over you. And if that happens people have lost their right to raise any grievance with the system or society they live in. Again .... common sense. It's IN the common area but each person needs to harness their own access to it.

Trading is the same.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #28
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:43pm Sep 1, 2021 8:43pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Most people do not naturally think in probabilities. And in 2021 this is [still] a real problem. For eg. you can see this reflected in people's thinking re: this worldwide virus stuff. I'm sure I'll make people upset by saying that probabilities NOT statistics, do not lie. Stats can be fudged. And objective observations bridge the gap. That's all I'll say about that. It's the same with trading. When you introduce context into your probability awareness, the usual, run-of-the-mill crap that people are fed within this industry, stop making sense....
PC, you wrote the best post on FF. Simple, obvious yet gold stuff.

However, forum members likely ignore what you wrote there.
And if they read it put it on ignore, do their same old thing.
There's no way to change FF mindset.
Know what you trade
  • #29
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:58pm Sep 1, 2021 8:58pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} PC, you wrote the best post on FF. However, forum members likely ignore what you wrote there. And if they read it put it on ignore, do their same old thing. There's no way to change FF mindset.


B,

I have no fight with FF. It's like any other entity. But it doesn't dictate a person's thinking, the person does. So the FULL responsibility sits with the person. Be it self destructive or not. And this is why I have always said to people - Learn from Life lessons instead of trying to cram 'trading stuff' into your head. Life lessons are BETTER teachers of EXACTLY THE SAME LESSONS as need to be applied to trading. Only those people who want you to hyper-specialize in your thinking and beliefs want you to try and 'be a trader' and take on the identity of a trader .... whatever that is. So what a person does when faced with something more than just plain information or knowledge .... real life living breathing wisdom ..... is what they are like in the real world. People are foolish to believe they can separate one from the other. The hilarious things is, these same lessons come around again and again and again within a single lifetime. So why continue to ignore it and try and 'get away with something'? Why not just grab your courage and face it head on..... and get it over and done with?

Mmmmmm. It's exactly the same with trading. People's fake life generates personal problems that festers into their trading. So why do our children have to put up with our BS? Because we choose to be cowards and ignore the problem and 'hope it'll just go away on its own'. It's the same with trading.

Probabilities provide insight.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #30
  • Sep 1, 2021 8:58pm Sep 1, 2021 8:58pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Well people have a choice to make don't they. Think or don't think. Learn or don't learn. It might be Sept 2021 but I don't see people generally being any smarter than they were 10 or 20 or 30yrs ago. They just have more distractions and like to take credit for other people's inventions especially in the field of technology. But interestingly don't want the potential negative consequences of being ignorant of many things. What people must understand, is if you won't think for yourself, there are plenty of others out...
PC, on point harsh truth that hurt.

That underlined statement equals ego that lead to the "cheat" mentality.
"Learn" is the difficult traditional path. Too hard to "think" for many in 2021.
Know what you trade
  • #31
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:04pm Sep 1, 2021 9:04pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} ...That's why I wrote traditional TA lacks this direction info making it useless. If the trader knows direction then he can simply press the buy/sell button at any crossroad. How many traders knew the direction for GU today is up 64pips to profit from it?
That's why hedging is so powerful. You don't have to know where price is going. TA is of little importance to a hedger.

It's possible to place a buy and sell trade at the same price and still come out ahead in time. Some people think it's stupid to trade like this. But they only think this way because they refuse to think outside the box.

The trick is knowing where to hedge, how long to ride it, and when to get out. I'm still working on figuring this out.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #32
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:07pm Sep 1, 2021 9:07pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} PC, on point harsh truth that hurt. That underlined statement equals ego.


Steady on there B. Let's NOT go down that rabbit hole here. This thread is about Percentage trading and use of probabilities. Not ego. That's a subject that many people haven't a deep grasp of from what I have seen. They talk themselves in circles with anecdotal information and ideas but that's about it.

Let us all just realize that learning is a process.

What I was saying is to show that you cannot separate real life from your trading. Sure you can lock the door to your office etc and stay in there while you trade BUT, that is not where you stay all the time is it. So let's stop pretending and share and learn something useful.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #33
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:07pm Sep 1, 2021 9:07pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} That's why hedging is so powerful. You don't have to know where price is going. TA is of little importance to a hedger. It's possible to place a buy and sell trade at the same price and still come out ahead in time. Some people think it's stupid to trade like this. But they only think this way because they refuse to think outside the box. The trick is knowing where to hedge, how long to ride it, and when to get out. I'm still working on figuring this out.
Hi here2there, your hedging idea sits on probabilities of "x" deviation from the mean.
Collate the deviation numbers from recent history for the pairs of your choice.
Know what you trade
  • #34
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:10pm Sep 1, 2021 9:10pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} That's why hedging is so powerful. You don't have to know where price is going. TA is of little importance to a hedger. It's possible to place a buy and sell trade at the same price and still come out ahead in time. Some people think it's stupid to trade like this. But they only think this way because they refuse to think outside the box. The trick is knowing where to hedge, how long to ride it, and when to get out. I'm still working on figuring this out.


I sense if I completely blindfolded you, THEN I chose the position size of your next trade for you THEN told you that I randomly selected the lot size THEN asked you to press the Buy and/or Sell button, you'd be sweating a bit. Lets' try and use some common sense here OK.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #35
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:15pm Sep 1, 2021 9:15pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi here2there, your hedging idea sits on probabilities of "x" deviation from the mean.
Finding a reliable mean is the hard part. Perhaps 50% of the previous candle's range would suffice. The candle would obviously have to be more than a doji.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #36
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:22pm Sep 1, 2021 9:22pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} I sense if I completely blindfolded you, THEN I chose the position size of your next trade for you THEN told you that I randomly selected the lot size THEN asked you to press the Buy and/or Sell button, you'd be sweating a bit. Lets' try and use some common sense here OK. Peter
Suppose I buy and sell at the same price, and then close out the trade that is showing signs of weakness, and then allow the stronger trade to run 2x, I can still come out ahead. The hard part is finding the right spot to start. Trading like this would involve little TA.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #37
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:23pm Sep 1, 2021 9:23pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Finding a reliable mean is the hard part. Perhaps 50% of the previous candle's range would suffice. The candle would obviously have to be more than a doji.
I follow through with your idea structure.

Lets say you determine the range of day candle.
Average range of the last rolling "month" = 20days approx. a month.
You can filter out those candles whose "form" that don't represent the norm.
Lets assume that's the mean.

50% is good enough to cover most of the data distribution.

Imv, simple ideas like yours based on probabilities show a consistent result.
Test it out, let us know how it goes.
Know what you trade
  • #38
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:28pm Sep 1, 2021 9:28pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I follow through with your idea structure. Lets say you determine the range of day candle. Average range of the last rolling "month" = 20days approx. a month. You can filter out those candles whose "form" that don't represent the norm. Lets assume that's the mean. 50% is good enough to cover most of the data distribution. Test it out, let us know how it goes. Imv, simple ideas like yours do work.
That seems to be a good idea.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #39
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:44pm Sep 1, 2021 9:44pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Suppose I buy and sell at the same price, and then close out the trade that is showing signs of weakness, and then allow the stronger trade to run 2x, I can still come out ahead. The hard part is finding the right spot to start. Trading like this would involve little TA.
Your solution is sitting in the same chair as your problem with TA. You want to try and operate with an extreme mentality but want the results of someone using a well rounded mindset. Ever heard of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde? Same situation.

You need to reconcile the areas of your ignorance re: all trading aspects before hitting the centre dot on the dart board.

Find yourself an (Open - Close)/2 MA and put it on the chart and TF of choice and make observations. Make notes of your observations.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #40
  • Sep 7, 2021 7:43pm Sep 7, 2021 7:43pm
Simon says ......

Eat an apple a day and you'll keep your teeth.

Walk for 10 mins a day and you'll keep your knees.

Learn and understand how to use your own mental language and you WILL learn how to trade in ways that helps you sleep well at night.

It still amazes me that people ASSUME they are healthy. That is until some calamity happens and then they're looking round frantically to help explain "what the bloody hell just happened??!!"

Case in point ....


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Life is full of wonderful little surprises. Have a Roses chocolate.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
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