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Old School Percentage Trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:14am Sep 1, 2021 4:34am | Edited 5:14am
This is to help people scratch up on their percentage trading. Nothing flashy but something that underpins most REAL things about trading, about financial investment and sometimes your everyday life. This is not for storytellers, conspiracy storytellers, perfectionists or naysayers. I don't have the time or desire to police people so if you're thinking of posting rubbish or just want to start arguments, I'm sure there's plenty of 'Day Care threads' that will tolerate that kind of BS. This thread is strictly for someone to gain competency in the use of percentages. There's a no warning exclusion from the thread so just stick to the thread's subject and you'll be fine.

Percentage trading is something a lot of people talk about but really cannot do or do very well. I know that's going to piss off a lot of people but bad luck, some things withstand the test of time while others do not.

Here's the first shot to show where to start ......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 1H %'s.png Size: 49 KB
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #2
  • Sep 1, 2021 4:43am Sep 1, 2021 4:43am
Hi Peter. I am really glad you're starting to talk about this. Sometimes I think we make trading too complex.

Can you explain this screenshot more?

Arnie
I believe simple is best
  • #3
  • Sep 1, 2021 4:55am Sep 1, 2021 4:55am
Quoting ArnoldPike
Hi Peter. I am really glad you're starting to talk about this. Sometimes I think we make trading too complex. Can you explain this screenshot more? Arnie
Sure Arnie.

When someone enters the world of "trading", they aren't aware of what they don't know or understand. And unfortunately, this leaves people vulnerable to being used, manipulated and lied to. But once you remove the unwanted drama you are left with the bones of a market. And from a private trader's perspective, this is where %'s come into view.

Direction, Time. Price Value. Personal timing. Best price positioning. Intent. These are the other things that help strengthen %'s.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 1H %'s.png Size: 49 KB


The above view is a simple way to observe the generic nature of a market. Up. Down. Left to right. Price over time. Time over price. And biases.

You need to just spend some time looking at the view and make notes on everything you see and everything you see repeating.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #4
  • Sep 1, 2021 5:11am Sep 1, 2021 5:11am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Sure Arnie. When someone enters the world of "trading", they aren't aware of what they don't know or understand. And unfortunately, this leaves people vulnerable to being used, manipulated and lied to. But once you remove the unwanted drama you are left with the bones of a market. And from a private trader's perspective, this is where %'s come into view. Direction, Time. Price Value. Personal timing. Best price positioning. Intent. These are the other things that help strengthen %'s. {image} The above view is a simple way to observe the...
I see you're using the Fib ext tool but it looks different to how people use it. Why are your percentages different?
I believe simple is best
  • #5
  • Sep 1, 2021 5:23am Sep 1, 2021 5:23am
Quoting ArnoldPike
{quote} I see you're using the Fib ext tool but it looks different to how people use it. Why are your percentages different?
Many people just follow what they're told to do but never question too much. The usual %'s of the Fib extension tool are not based on actual percentage relative investment. They're based on the idea that the Golden ratio is omnipresent and evergreen. It's personal choice I suppose but I haven't seen enough evidence that the golden ratio is more powerful than proper structure + %'s and using market participant awareness and intentions.

The percentages I use are geared around finding outcomes and so they are used relative to Price, time and movement.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF MICRO 1.png Size: 684 KB


The micro relative view.

Many strategies and insurances are based on stage %'s.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #6
  • Sep 1, 2021 5:29am Sep 1, 2021 5:29am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Many people just follow what they're told to do but never question too much. The usual %'s of the Fib extension tool are not based on actual percentage relative investment. They're based on the idea that the Golden ratio is omnipresent and evergreen. It's personal choice I suppose but I haven't seen enough evidence that the golden ratio is more powerful than proper structure + %'s and using market participant awareness and intentions. The percentages I use are geared around finding outcomes and so they are used relative to Price, time and...
OK cool thanks for sharing that. I've noticed that some people think you're a bit arrogant. Why do you think they see this?
I believe simple is best
  • #7
  • Sep 1, 2021 5:39am Sep 1, 2021 5:39am
Quoting ArnoldPike
{quote} OK cool thanks for sharing that. I've noticed that some people think you're a bit arrogant. Why do you think they see this?

It's OK. That's really their problem. I'm not really all that arrogant. At my age, I see people wasting so much time. Instead of resolving their personal issues, that usually block people's ability to function better than average, they chase false solutions. This is where their obsession with indicators, EA's, multiple layers of data comes from. And so because I see them wasting so much precious time on superfluous things, it does piss me off because these are the same people who crave money and solutions to their problems and bitch and winge about the problem and fear the real solutions.

If a person learned to persist with their use of percentages and anchor them to what is foundational in trading, or as I say, generic, then they can grow beyond the wannabe's and "I know a lots" in the world.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #8
  • Sep 1, 2021 5:50am Sep 1, 2021 5:50am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} It's OK. That's really their problem. I'm not really all that arrogant. At my age, I see people wasting so much time. Instead of resolving their personal issues, that usually block people's ability to function better than average, they chase false solutions. This is where their obsession with indicators, EA's, multiple layers of data comes from. And so because I see them wasting so much precious time on superfluous things, it does piss me off because these are the same people who crave money and solutions to their problems and bitch and...
Ok yeah I see what you mean.
I believe simple is best
  • #9
  • Sep 1, 2021 5:59am Sep 1, 2021 5:59am
And here's the basics of the macro .....


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF MACRO 1.png Size: 37 KB


This view and approach is simple, easy to apply, accurate and helps to see the stretch or extension of the market from a technical position. It uses a simple trend line to observe rate of change using the counter side to its movement, the general centre of its activity and then the 50% marker. I suppose it depends on what tactics and strategy you want to apply to the situation. All of this is done in real time and so it is applied as the market does its thing. So no 'hindsight trading' is happening here.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #10
  • Sep 1, 2021 6:06am Sep 1, 2021 6:06am
Quoting PeterCaleb
And here's the basics of the macro ..... {image} This view and approach is simple, easy to apply, accurate and helps to see the stretch or extension of the market from a technical position. It uses a simple trend line to observe rate of change using the counter side to its movement, the general centre of its activity and then the 50% marker. I suppose it depends on what tactics and strategy you want to apply to the situation. All of this is done in real time and so it is applied as the market does its thing. So no 'hindsight trading' is happening...
Thanks for this Peter. i'll go away now and study this.

Arnie
I believe simple is best
  • #11
  • Sep 1, 2021 6:12am Sep 1, 2021 6:12am
What is “The Percentage Trading”
  • #12
  • Sep 1, 2021 6:25am Sep 1, 2021 6:25am
Quoting BlackNapkins
What is “The Percentage Trading”
I sense it started as a fad back when Mark Douglas and the others before and after (who wrote books and made a name for themselves in the world of trading) started to promote the idea of "Do 100 trades and count up how many are successful vs how many are not successful".

Eg.

A trend trader who wins on 35 out of 100 trades. Therefore, a 35% Win Strike rate. But the parameters of each trade will be individual in some way, so each scenario is independent of the sum total. However IF each trade is performed in almost exactly the same way, taking into account the variables of wicks and news and all the rest, then you can gain a more insightful look at how the approach would do. But people seem to take it all a little too literally. The human factor is the cream on top. The initial 35% in that above eg is only a starting point.

Percentage trading has changed over the years and people have moved away from manual trading and are trying to "cheat" with EA's and fandangled indicators. So from my perspective, it's not surprising that people are having a hard time learning.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #13
  • Sep 1, 2021 6:48am Sep 1, 2021 6:48am
Hi Peter, are the white colour areas you have marked in post 5 'price vacuums' ?
  • #14
  • Sep 1, 2021 6:58am Sep 1, 2021 6:58am
H Peter, thanks for sharing your experience. I just want to share a bit of my understanding after years of looking at charts. I am not arguing at all that markets move in percentages or in waves, etc… Yes, they do. My issue is that these percentages and lines are easy to draw in the past and easy to fit to existing charts when you have a choice of start and end points. What is crucial is market direction… I now do not really care about these percentage lines or fib levels… they are like crossroads without any signs… crossroads which do not tell me whether I should turn left, right or should continue ahead… If I know which direction to take, even if I miss one crossroad, I will turn on the next one.
So, all in all, your lines may look beautiful, I have seen these in many books I paid for, however, they are an invitation for disaster if you try to enter the market at any of these lines without knowing what is the market direction (going up or down or nowhere). Your pictures reveal what I am saying… at times the market may just go through your lines like a waterfall or, at times, it may decide to change direction. So, direction is key, not percentages.
So, not sure what else you are planning to show here but just wanted to say that people should carefully consider whether using percentage lines is useful.
  • #15
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:03am Sep 1, 2021 9:03am
So the target is 1.87107 and back up again 100

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDH1.png Size: 50 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDH1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #16
  • Sep 1, 2021 9:06am Sep 1, 2021 9:06am
Quoting rosspetX
H Peter, thanks for sharing your experience. I just want to share a bit of my understanding after years of looking at charts. I am not arguing at all that markets move in percentages or in waves, etc… Yes, they do. My issue is that these percentages and lines are easy to draw in the past and easy to fit to existing charts when you have a choice of start and end points. What is crucial is market direction… I now do not really care about these percentage lines or fib levels… they are like crossroads without any signs… crossroads which do not tell...
Hi rosspetX, you wrote an honest view. That's why I wrote traditional TA lacks this direction info making it useless. If the trader knows direction then he can simply press the buy/sell button at any crossroad.

How many traders knew the direction for GU today is up 64pips to profit from it?
Know what you trade
  • #17
  • Sep 1, 2021 2:38pm Sep 1, 2021 2:38pm
Quoting rosspetX
H Peter, thanks for sharing your experience. I just want to share a bit of my understanding after years of looking at charts. I am not arguing at all that markets move in percentages or in waves, etc… Yes, they do. My issue is that these percentages and lines are easy to draw in the past and easy to fit to existing charts when you have a choice of start and end points. What is crucial is market direction… I now do not really care about these percentage lines or fib levels… they are like crossroads without any signs… crossroads which do not tell...
Thanks for posting this, just made me think twice. Old school, what does that mean. I'm an engineer and sometimes the old school stuff still works which we can learn from and we should learn from our pasts for better or the worst. Things have changed so much sense I started my trade (some decades ago) best example Computers vs Tracing paper for design engineers. I am not saying that some people could not make that theory work, more look at it as a tool for your toolbox.
  • #18
  • Sep 1, 2021 7:20pm Sep 1, 2021 7:20pm
Quoting nozzer
Hi Peter, are the white colour areas you have marked in post 5 'price vacuums' ?


nozzer,

I put those lines there merely to draw a person's eyes (and mind) to the happenings of the market activity. Yes they could represent a price vacuum/price markup/mark down or anything else that you find situation appropriate. The one thing I find that people don't do enough of, is just observe, without judgment or assumption. So if I was a student of that "situation", I would create a list of everything I can think of that "could" relate to what I see going on. It's the only way to figure out what you do and do not know.

I hope that helps.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #19
  • Sep 1, 2021 7:41pm Sep 1, 2021 7:41pm
Quoting rosspetX
H Peter, thanks for sharing your experience. I just want to share a bit of my understanding after years of looking at charts. I am not arguing at all that markets move in percentages or in waves, etc… Yes, they do. My issue is that these percentages and lines are easy to draw in the past and easy to fit to existing charts when you have a choice of start and end points. What is crucial is market direction… I now do not really care about these percentage lines or fib levels… they are like crossroads without any signs… crossroads which do not tell...
rosspetX,

I have a question for you if I may - Are you a broker or introductory broker? Because in my experience that is exactly what one would say in response to things here. EVERYTHING in trading requires context. Especially direction. Brokers and book writers and promoters in this industry want people to obsess over certain aspects without considering context. That's why we still have people trying to trend trade the 1m chart. From my own experience, and now looking into how you think, I would say that you don't know how to use the tool put in front of you. Sorry. A line, ANY line, is useful IF used properly and in a timely context. As for percentages, a chart is FULL to the brim with percentages (in all different contexts) so I have to wonder who you really are.

I do not use my percentages as others use their Fib extension tool %'s of 23, 38, 50 etc. I'm not looking to "predict" using a level of some "creative" percentile based math. I am looking to observe the market in ITS context and not my presumptuous efforts to 'make money'. THIS is the key difference between genuine methodology or 'Old School' approaches vs all these so-called modern day ideas and mentality.

Below are two charts. One is the Daily chart for Gold 1980 and the other is the chart I recently posted .......


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD 1980 pic 1.png Size: 40 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF MICRO 1.png Size: 684 KB


So, if you are ONLY using direction as a cornerstone context for your trading, then you are ripe for manipulation and misdirection.

So, to sum up for you here. What worked 50yrs ago, STILL works today. That which is in the hands of the TRADER still works today as it did in the past. Yes some parts of these markets have changed BUT many parts have not. If you have been trading profitably for the long term, you would have already learned this life lesson. Perhaps it's time to rethink your assumptions.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #20
  • Sep 1, 2021 7:47pm Sep 1, 2021 7:47pm
Quoting Ihlas
So the target is 1.87107 and back up again 100 {image} {image}


Ihlas,

Remember that percentages are fluid just as the market is fluid. Once the Big and medium contexts are observed, you need to think as the market does - in both directions. I see on your screenshot that your %'s are only going one way. Therefore only declaring to your eyes that movement is singular. Each active movement of the market has its cut off point before the process begins again in the opposing direction short term. Please try again and this time consider both directions in the short term within the bigger picture context.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
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