Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2974 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #59,461
  • Aug 31, 2021 4:34am Aug 31, 2021 4:34am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Oops wrong chart ...
Yes looks like it was a good one for the +20 again. Similar picture here.

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  • #59,462
  • Aug 31, 2021 4:49am Aug 31, 2021 4:49am
Quoting lddd
{quote} That helps enormously to know... Here we are Pivots. They also giving contradicting signals again for me. Still would have no idea how to build a repeating strategy on that. The hardest part here seems to be timing. If you don't want to sit on front of the chart all day you never know when these levels will be approached by price so you never know when to act on!? Secondly, the successrate with the Pivot Points alone from a intraday perspective seems to be quiet low. I haven't yet found one month...
Have a read of the attached might give some ideas on pivot trading. Worth taking the time - it's not a 5 minute read there's 300 + pages but I promise you will learn.
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File Type: pdf Secrets-of-a-Pivot-Boss-by-Frank-Ochoa.pdf   1.5 MB | 2,517 downloads
  • #59,463
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:35am Aug 31, 2021 5:35am
This is how I trade pivots every single day as routine as clockwork.
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  • #59,464
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:37am Aug 31, 2021 5:37am
My next FTMO trial deinitely failed by now. But this time due to hitting the drawdown limit.

I was reading this last night and it catched me by these two paragraphs

- Indices have less consolidations and market whipsaws (Good if you don't want to get slaughtered every day)
- Indices move more points per day than currencies (Good if you only have a small daily profit target and you have to fix after your first entry failed)

Now here is my last entry on GU and it shows what i mean by "whipsaw/chop". It's like nearly every second candle changes color. I don't even want to look down to M5 or M1, that must be even more like this then.

What the article says that there is less of such whipsaw or consolidations with indices, idk. Looking over at the FTSE or DAX M15 chart, there is actually not that much of a difference to spot for me. You have a bar going up instantly followed by a far going down that would probably take you out with a reasonable sl.

But what are the options. Maybe setting a stop loss of -500-600 Pips because that is approx. the range the Pound/Dollar is moving in a month. So where to enter becomes less or a problem. You simply let your trade run for ever and take profit as soon at it comes back into profit. I don`t think thats a good strategy taking 5 Pip wins but just 1 trade like that where price then NOT came back and you`re done. Also you then have to wait and have lots of time for making a small profit.

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  • #59,465
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:41am Aug 31, 2021 5:41am
Quoting lddd
My next FTMO trial deinitely failed by now. But this time due to hitting the drawdown limit. I was reading this last night and it catched me by these two paragraphs - Indices have less consolidations and market whipsaws (Good if you don't want to get slaughtered every day) - Indices move more points per day than currencies (Good if you only have a small daily profit target and you have to fix after your first entry failed) Now here is my last entry on GU and it shows what i mean by "whipsaw/chop". It's like nearly every second candle changes color....
The DAX can chop you to bits
  • #59,466
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:42am Aug 31, 2021 5:42am
Quoting herewego
This is how I trade pivots every single day as routine as clockwork. {image}
If i understand it correct you then enter on the Daily Pivot Point and have multiple take profit levels, in this case below the daily Pivot. How do you decide what direction to enter then once price is hitting the Pivot Level?

A 40 Pips SL is huuuuuge for me. But if risking 4k every day would end up in making +4k by the end of the day, even that wouldn't worry me too much.
  • #59,467
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:45am Aug 31, 2021 5:45am
Quoting lddd
{quote} If i understand it correct you then enter on the Daily Pivot Point and have multiple take profit levels, in this case below the daily Pivot. How do you decide what direction to enter then once price is hitting the Pivot Level? A 40 Pips SL is huuuuuge for me. But if risking 4k every day would end up in making +4k by the end of the day, even that wouldn't worry me too much.
Its a 3 day rolling pivot range with a scale i made for entries and exits
  • #59,468
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:46am Aug 31, 2021 5:46am
Quoting herewego
{quote} The DAX can chop you to bits
Yes, i heard Lem and Billy saying this. However you then read such articles and so on and end up with a total mixed mind. It's almost unpossible for a noob like me to find out what is really working and what not having millions of different answers to the same basic question then.

I more and more come to the conclusion throwing my money into a slot machine would make more sense lol.

Thanks for your help. Will need to get out now and clear my head of all that and take a walk.
  • #59,469
  • Aug 31, 2021 5:52am Aug 31, 2021 5:52am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes, i heard Lem and Billy saying this. However you then read such articles and so on and end up with a total mixed mind. It's almost unpossible for a noob like me to find out what is really working and what not having millions of different answers to the same basic question then. I more and more come to the conclusion throwing my money into a slot machine would make more sense lol. Thanks for your help. Will need to get out now and clear my head of all that and take a walk.
If you find a slot machine with an edge in your favour then I agree with you
  • #59,470
  • Aug 31, 2021 6:39am Aug 31, 2021 6:39am
Quoting herewego
{quote} If you find a slot machine with an edge in your favour then I agree with you


I like you.

Well, i now have a lot of food again for my already confused head with trading and what, where, when could work to realize my goals.

The Pivots Book by Claudia i already started reading, i am also looking at the 3 day's rolling Pivot range now.

Maybe i should leave the BillyBar, idk. I thought that this would be the best for me to have something clear and repeatable where i know my trading times and risk and possible profit in advance but without getting the fixing part figured out for me i am no longer so sure.

The question is then still open what market, instrument i should trade, if i might need to trade more than one or if all that is the wrong question in the first place and i should trade what ever the strategy is based on. But most strategies seems to be universal, so you then still have no idea if trading it only for one instrument each and every day will be enough to hit such goals or not.

Regarding to the slippage question again. I watched my account and i got only slipped two 2 times positive in 2 years with that account. 1 x 0,1 Pips on a TP and 1 x 0,3 Pips. So thats a 0,3 Pips positive vs a -14 Pips negative on a stop loss order where the broker told me that it would have been the best available price at the liquidity that was there at the time. A trade at $1/Pip and there is not enough "liquidity" to get stopped out at my exact level still sounds like a joke to me but okay.

I know there is nothing i can do about slippage with a ECN type broker on the stop loss or take profit orders but i thought at least i could limit it on my entries. But without real limit orders or the max. spread/deviation setting not working on MT4 even that would be not possible. I therefor looked at cTrader because there you seem to have at least real limit orders working for you and that market range option where you can define your max. slippage on the entry. The order then gets either executed or not but at least not executed with a worse price than expected.

Anyways, going to have my walk now and maybe swimming. See you.
  • #59,471
  • Aug 31, 2021 7:00am Aug 31, 2021 7:00am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I like you. Well, i now have a lot of food again for my already confused head with trading and what, where, when could work to realize my goals. The Pivots Book by Claudia i already started reading, i am also looking at the 3 day's rolling Pivot range now. Maybe i should leave the BillyBar, idk. I thought that this would be the best for me to have something clear and repeatable where i know my trading times and risk and possible profit in advance but without getting the fixing part figured out for me i am no longer...
My advice would be stick to one thing and do it damn well
  • #59,472
  • Aug 31, 2021 7:06am Aug 31, 2021 7:06am
Quoting herewego
{quote} My advice would be stick to one thing and do it damn well
I'd go with that - I stick 90% of the time with GU and have for years. You get to know how it behaves.
  • #59,473
  • Aug 31, 2021 7:12am Aug 31, 2021 7:12am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I'd go with that - I stick 90% of the time with GU and have for years. You get to know how it behaves.
i agree 100%

the thing is you will not make more money, when you split between pairs and you will not diversify. two common thinking errors
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #59,474
  • Aug 31, 2021 8:20am Aug 31, 2021 8:20am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Oops wrong chart .. {image}
Doing a "shuffle" towards the channel boundary so will leave it there. A nice move down that, unfortunately, does not happen everyday but at least the old girl is not as savage as the Dax
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,475
  • Aug 31, 2021 9:58am Aug 31, 2021 9:58am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Doing a "shuffle" towards the channel boundary so will leave it there. A nice move down that, unfortunately, does not happen everyday but at least the old girl is not as savage as the Dax {image}
Leave Dax to Lem. Think we'll ever see head gnome again ?
  • #59,476
  • Aug 31, 2021 10:28am Aug 31, 2021 10:28am
Quoting herewego
{quote} My advice would be stick to one thing and do it damn well
Thank you and the others. I would like to stick to that BillyBar setup and GU only but it just looks so hard to me (not that anything else would be easier).

But here. Looking at the UK session for the last 5 days, the highest range was about 86 Pips. This is the UK session without NY but i think even with NY included it wasn't much more. So these would be my trading times where i could be actively monitoring the chart and entering or exiting a trade before i would need to call it a day (not holding positions opened over night) 08-17 UK time.

Now there was only 1 fail over the last 5 days on the BillyBar setup where it broke one end (high or low) and haven't hit the +5 TP. But sometimes 2-3 days in a 5 days week cycle fail and some days it happens even in a row, so increasing stake size on the next day's first break entry and such MG tactics can bring you even in more trouble then (like a blown up account).

With such low volatility and all that choppy price action (every second M15 bar changing direction again) to me it seems impossible to end up net positive by the end of a week after trading costs (i forgot about every day already).

I mean you then have to nail it after your first entry failed right. I ask my self how much risk (Pips) i should keep giving it then to "fix" that. I could easily losing 3-4 more entries in a row (see today) and i am then back in reality at a -50 Pips or so instead of a +5.

Today a 60 Pips range again so far.

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  • #59,477
  • Aug 31, 2021 10:30am Aug 31, 2021 10:30am
Swimming was fine. Now looking for some soccer bets i might could do this evening. Yesterday i lost. Germany kicking soon again with a new team, can only get better lol.
  • #59,478
  • Aug 31, 2021 11:18am Aug 31, 2021 11:18am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thank you and the others. I would like to stick to that BillyBar setup and GU only but it just looks so hard to me (not that anything else would be easier). But here. Looking at the UK session for the last 5 days, the highest range was about 86 Pips. This is the UK session without NY but i think even with NY included it wasn't much more. So these would be my trading times where i could be actively monitoring the chart and entering or exiting a trade before i would need to call it a day (not holding positions opened over night) 08-17 UK time....
There are others in this thread that are much more qualified to offer advice than myself but my points would be:
1. Control your losses and accept them.
2. Accept that you will not win every trade/day/week
3. Switch your emotions off when you enter your trading room.
4. Treat your trading as if you are an Algo.
5. Know when not to trade.
6. Zoom out of your chart and see the bigger picture.
7. Make the system fit you and not vice-versa.
8. Be more relaxed when trading.
9. Don't take anybodys word for anything......prove it yourself.
  • #59,479
  • Aug 31, 2021 11:18am Aug 31, 2021 11:18am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Leave Dax to Lem. Think we'll ever see head gnome again ?
Well - it seems someone is desperate to find him !
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,480
  • Aug 31, 2021 11:22am Aug 31, 2021 11:22am
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Interesting Monday Doji, 50% fib retracement, bounce off squiggly thing, bounce off round number, potential close below a 50 level today, 36 a tasty lure.... hmm oh and month end and NFP....
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