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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,381
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:29am Aug 21, 2021 11:29am
Quoting Nordling00
Guys, guys listen up. Whether there's 70% or 90% losing rate that still means most of the people are not profitable. Trading is not an easy thing and not for everyone whether you daytrade, scalp, swing or position trade. Majority will fail anyways.
Since the OP assumes day trading is 95% lose and the others here “guess” 99% of all traders lose. If they are all correct, that means close to all non day traders lose so as to skew the 95% to 99%...

This is a very interesting topic that requires large scale research on multiple aspects. The OP is kind enough to share with us some scientific papers about day trading. I have been asking if there is any objective information regarding trading as a whole and non day trading.

If not then the first paragraph can be right... just a saying
  • #3,382
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:49am Aug 21, 2021 11:49am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Since the OP assumes day trading is 95% lose and the others here “guess” 99% of all traders lose. If they are all correct, that means close to all non day traders lose so as to skew the 95% to 99%... This is a very interesting topic that requires large scale research on multiple aspects. The OP is kind enough to share with us some scientific papers about day trading. I have been asking if there is any objective information regarding trading as a whole and non day trading. If not then the first paragraph can be right... just a saying
Of course we don't have the chance to give an exact number. But we have a poll here in the first page. That can give an idea.

The problem is everyone should ask themselves if they are profitable or not. If they are not profitable, does the percentage of winners really matter? Will people choose their trading style depending on the winning percentage or depending on what's suitable for them? If people's answer is the first one, then even if there's 90% win rate on a trading style, they will still get themselves on the losing 10%. "What's easy gets harder with time, what's hard gets easier with time" So my advice would be no need to care about the loser/winner percentage, just pick the one that suits you.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,383
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:50am Aug 21, 2021 11:50am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Since the OP assumes day trading is 95% lose and the others here “guess” 99% of all traders lose. If they are all correct, that means close to all non day traders lose so as to skew the 95% to 99%... This is a very interesting topic that requires large scale research on multiple aspects. The OP is kind enough to share with us some scientific papers about day trading. I have been asking if there is any objective information regarding trading as a whole and non day trading. If not then the first paragraph can be right... just a saying
Exactly, the thread has to be called the brutal truth of trading......
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,384
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:51am Aug 21, 2021 11:51am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} {image}


What I am about to say is for someone to learn not argue and debase reality.

Criticism comes in 2 forms ....

1. Harmful or destructive attempts to minimize a person's/thing's worth
2. Constructive feedback

However, this is based on the premise that you are only looking at the giver of that criticism. IF the receiver is mentally and/or emotionally unhealthy, then this will affect the situation greatly. People who have not really grown out of being 'emotional teenagers' find it hard to be objective and determine 1 from 2. Examples of this litter the internet and this site for eg. is a bee hive of such examples. And so interpretations are considered 'good enough'.

It's also funny and rather disturbing that so many people have not yet learned (Despite being IN the information age now) the difference between an opinion and true life experience. Again, this site hold a plethora of examples for someone to do some proper study and research, while they're not too busy just chasing money.

The root of statistics is what lets most people down. If you just wave around any old stats then they have no value or merit. This virus stuff is a prime example. If people chose to learn the basics of biology, virology and similar areas, putting aside the usual assumptions re: intelligence, and instead simply apply some common sense, then one would find it quite easy to arrive at specific conclusions. The same goes for trading.

From what I have seen, most people don't understand their own personality to THEN choose or apply said style. If they did, they would not argue over such silly and futile things, they would arrive at better conclusions faster, see through and into a situation deeper and more proficiently. All without immature judgment or prejudice. The same applies, again, to other egs such as this virus stuff.

"Truth" is only a dirty word to those who are too cowardly to seek out the reality of something in all its facets that go beyond opinion, laziness, "facts" and information overload.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #3,385
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:02pm Aug 21, 2021 12:02pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Of course we don't have the chance to give an exact number. But we have a poll here in the first page. That can give an idea. The problem is everyone should ask themselves if they are profitable or not. If they are not profitable, does the percentage of winners really matter? Will people choose their trading style depending on the winning percentage or depending on what's suitable for them? If people's answer is the first one, then even if there's 90% win rate on a trading style, they will still get themselves on the losing 10%. "What's...
I am intrigued by the mentality behind traders making the guesses.

Many here should be actual traders, and the general virbe here is against day trading. But when diving into numbers, people have no issue believing 5% day trader succeed and being majority of the 1% profitable traders. This contradicts with the general belief here.

it makes me think, are they profitable or not themselves to act against egocentric bias since the numbers I proposed favours their beliefs but rejected pretty quickly compared with the “guesses” mentioned in last paragraph. Anyway that is a side track
  • #3,386
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:06pm Aug 21, 2021 12:06pm
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} And what was my last attempt?
Lol...that attempt that didnt succeed
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #3,387
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:10pm Aug 21, 2021 12:10pm
Quoting tommydoginti
it makes me think, are they profitable or not themselves to act against egocentric bias since the numbers I proposed favours their beliefs...
What does it matter to you whether another trader is profitable or not? If ABC trader is profitable or not your account won't move a dime either way.

This I don't understand.

You plucking numbers from the sky not going to magically transform our account from loss to profitable vv right? Even if the numbers are real.

However, it's normal for a holy grail seeker tend to be optimistic with his stance about this long term profitable %? Broker rep perhaps selling the fantasy?
Know what you trade
  • #3,388
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:33pm Aug 21, 2021 12:33pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} What does it matter to you whether another trader is profitable or not? If ABC trader is profitable or not your account won't move a dime either way. This I don't understand. You plucking numbers from the sky not going to magically transform our account from loss to profitable vv right? Even if the numbers are real. However, it's normal for a holy grail seeker tend to be optimistic with his stance about this long term profitable %? Broker rep perhaps selling the fantasy?
That was an inquiry to the OP as he was the one opening this thread and stating day trading is worse than other styles.

being optimistic? I actually don’t think so. Considering 29% profitable in a month is fact, 13% net gain on an average year for day traders (that is from the Taiwanese paper suggested by the OP), 0.1-0.3% making more than local annual income (both the Brazilian and Taiwanese study as suggested by OP), and the common advocation of “seeing fx trading as business” with the actual success rate of 5-10% in start up companies, I see and shared other sources of info that support this. If you aren’t willing to discuss by providing actual information then I think we can just stop replying each other.

But I see people who against day trading, believe in extremely low numbers and agree on more day trader make money. That contradiction makes me think of a reply in the first 2/3 pages of this thread: losing traders trying to justify their failure.
  • #3,389
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:35pm Aug 21, 2021 12:35pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I am intrigued by the mentality behind traders making the guesses. Many here should be actual traders, and the general virbe here is against day trading. But when diving into numbers, people have no issue believing 5% day trader succeed and being majority of the 1% profitable traders. This contradicts with the general belief here. it makes me think, are they profitable or not themselves to act against egocentric bias since the numbers I proposed favours their beliefs but rejected pretty quickly compared with the “guesses” mentioned in last...
Well egocentric bias and beliefs won't get anyone anywhere. So let people believe what they want, it will only harm themselves.

"One trouble is better than a thousand advice"

I am trading for over 3 years. I have tried daytrading, scalping etc. i also have tried probably few hundred indicators and trading systems. They didn't work for me. What worked for me is position trading and it made me profitable. That doesn't mean position trading will make others successful too. Let them try what they want. Believe what they want. They are the ones that will succeed or fail in the end.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,390
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:38pm Aug 21, 2021 12:38pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Well egocentric bias and beliefs won't get anyone anywhere. So let people believe what they want, it will only harm themselves. "One trouble is better than a thousand advice" I am trading for over 3 years. I have tried daytrading, scalping etc. i also have tried probably few hundred indicators and trading systems. They didn't work for me. What worked for me is position trading and it made me profitable. That doesn't mean position trading will make others successful too. Let them try what they want. Believe what they want. They are the ones...
Agree and I hope your message can be received by the Op and other traders.
  • #3,391
  • Edited 12:57pm Aug 21, 2021 12:45pm | Edited 12:57pm
Being short term profitable is one thing.

Being profitable over 10years is another. >$1 included.

Having retired from trading for a living after 3-4decades is another.

Being profitable that significantly change the traders life is another level.

What FF members in similar discussions are interested in is this last category.

0.01%

Such elite traders will never point to himself.
Know what you trade
  • #3,392
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:50pm Aug 21, 2021 12:50pm
Quoting deanyakobs
For me it is ITC a.k.a Michael Huddlestone and George Aus that change my trade result BETTER. Appreciate my English ....please
Hi DY

Its ICT and your English is good.

Quoting deanyakobs
Me myself always learn to join the best mind in trading IF suit my market view. Theres real nugget in Bilal, RickM, MoodyBoot, Donpato, Bionics, Darkstar, David pivot, Mladen, Swingman, TimeTell, GeorgeAus, TheRealDeal, ICT, Jupiter, CrucialPoint, Alpha-Omega, CJA, Zznbrm, Fractalfreak, CaptainJack, FTI, Stevehopwood and OTHERS AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION IS COMPLETING MY EDGE. One by one whatever SMALL. I much appreciate it and THAAAAANKS BROTHAS IN LORD. Your contribution IS NOT SMALL Everyone has their own craft and their own art in trading Lets building...
I dont worth it to be honest as i am learning it and sharing the same, even if you insist to put me in your list i would be the last among so experience and real traders.

Quoting deanyakobs
Hi folks ... i just have a dream live like you live in your country. All of you seem live happy and playfulness. In our country we must fight even that thing IS our right. Yes, i must not complain and moaning here. The show must go on. @ RickM your post is difficult for me to absorb because my slow brain but slow I will learn . I mean about delta volume and so on. Now following Bilal 1 minute trading. Happy Trading

Dear DY
RickM has practiced it over years and runing it like business not gambling like most of FF and even myself didnt understand it fully but a little so we dont worry he is on a different level, meanwhile you're welcome to learn ICT and ask questions anytime, i will respond of what i know.

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,393
  • Aug 21, 2021 12:58pm Aug 21, 2021 12:58pm
Quoting bfx17
{quote} Lol...that attempt that didnt succeed

Succeed of what?
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,394
  • Aug 21, 2021 1:25pm Aug 21, 2021 1:25pm
Quoting HeyYou
being profitable in the long term is meaningless. for instance, I traded for 10 years and I lost about 7k euro during the first 8 years. only recently I doubled a 10k euro account... there's no consistency.. not that I really care lol
Think that you doubled that 10k account for 10 years.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,395
  • Aug 21, 2021 1:31pm Aug 21, 2021 1:31pm
Quoting HeyYou
being profitable in the long term is meaningless. for instance, I traded for 10 years and I lost about 7k euro during the first 8 years. only recently I doubled a 10k euro account... there's no consistency.. not that I really care lol
That's the wish and desire people have with forex, and revenge trading is the outcome, borrowing funds from friends, relatives, selling spouse jewellery to recover all of the losses one day end up where ... hopelessness, darkness, Suicide.

If people spend time on learning rather discovering a holy grail indicator.

Meanwhile doing their job or business or whatever skill God has provided them and taking up the responsibility of life.

Life will be much more satisfying.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,396
  • Aug 21, 2021 1:36pm Aug 21, 2021 1:36pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} That's the wish and desire people have with forex, and revenge trading is the outcome, borrowing funds from friends, relatives, selling spouse jewellery to recover all of the losses one day end up where ... hopelessness, darkness, Suicide. If people spend time on learning rather discovering a holy grail indicator. Meanwhile doing their job or business or whatever skill God has provided them and taking up the responsibility of life. Life will be much more satisfying.
Exactly. That's why I'm against selling the dream of easy and quick money.
Know what you trade
  • #3,397
  • Edited 2:07pm Aug 21, 2021 1:50pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Exactly. That's why I'm against selling the dream of easy and quick money.
true, however, i gambled with around 15k yesterday over 126 trades, i spend full day from asian till london close it was very tough day to be honest.

perhaps if i stay consistent and start from 1k and turn 4-5K in a month not in a day like this and lost 4 times still can say positive yet it is still gambling perhaps i wont even win once.

may be practising this over and over or adding some risk management rules can make it possible dont know to be honest unless tried.

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"Exchange of hands"
  • #3,398
  • Edited 4:13pm Aug 21, 2021 3:02pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Wags This is just my opinion. When Buyers enter the market, we get two results. 1.. Positive delta if the buyers volume produces bullish delta bars with a bullish trend. 2.. Negative delta if the buyers volume produces a bullish delta bars but a bearish trend. Therefore Buyers and Sellers don't decide trend, its the big players liquidity (limit orders that are either real or fake) that's accept or reject price directional movement to suit their objectives. On Thursday London session, EURUSD was positive delta and the big players were...

Powerful

Question, did you enter on that small candle with all the positive deltas or wait until footprint also broke above as well?

This is something i look for without the footprint charts in my trading previously before i was trading pivots but using broker tick volume

But i think delta is very misleading with tick volumes

Wags

EDIT: Hmmn maybe i got this wrong?
  • #3,399
  • Aug 21, 2021 3:10pm Aug 21, 2021 3:10pm
Quoting Wags
{quote} Powerful Question, did you enter on that small candle with all the positive deltas or wait until price also broke above as well? This is something i look for without the footprint charts in my trading previously before i was trading pivots but using broker tick volume Wags
Also at what time zone is on the chart?
  • #3,400
  • Aug 21, 2021 3:11pm Aug 21, 2021 3:11pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} Also at what time zone is on the chart?

Its 1m TF look at image bottom left corner
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