The brutal truth of day trading | Page 169 | Forex Factory

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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #3,361
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:18am Aug 21, 2021 8:18am
Quoting bfx17
{quote} Indeed, lets just say that the value of that "less than 1%" is closer to 0 than closer to 1%. We agree on something, so I hope you wont delete your post EDIT: or edit it again
Yes, ITS ok to edit your post like I do.

Cause to improve my English i must write better and practice more.
  • #3,362
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:20am Aug 21, 2021 8:20am
Quoting bfx17
{quote} Indeed, lets just say that the value of that "less than 1%" is closer to 0 than closer to 1%. We agree on something, so I hope you wont delete your post EDIT: or edit it again
It all depends on what market we are trading, Stocks, Metals, Forex, Index's, Futures, two fly's leaving a wall etc. etc.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #3,363
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:32am Aug 21, 2021 8:32am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Extrapolating the probability tells us the expected value for those traders able to do it consistently over a few years is a miniscule figure. However, on FF don't expect members to accept this stark reality given it kills the fantasy for many members here. {quote} Hi B, you're generous with your figures, the real % is a lot less than that, under 0.1%.
Do you have source of information of 0.1%?

The account gain/loss statistics are disclosed by brokers by law, so it is actual. However to elaborate it further is up to others but more often than not very careless.

For instance, the “99% traders cannot profit for 4 continuous quarters” can be calculated simply by powering the 29% to 12 months. In reality the 29% traders profitable probably comprise of many of the truly profitable traders. Gamblers and failed traders have low chance of profitable month(s) to contribute to the winning %.

the approach to seek statistics from traders side is better if the study is careful enough, like the Brazilian study which is peer reviewed

this below is very unscientific but the numbers are concurring with other speculations
https://www.forexschoolonline.com/fo...ry-statistics/

5-10% with net gain within the entire trading career (however length) is a more reasonable figure to me, which is roughly the proportion of registered companies in HK that have ever been taxed (seeing trading as a business)


Yet I have been waiting to see some better information able to at least deduce day trading being worse (the brutal truth) as of the initial message of this thread. 95% traders fail as a common consensus without actual proof and 95% people voted in a public forum poll being day traders do not have any logical deduction to the brutal “truth”. So...
  • #3,364
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:41am Aug 21, 2021 8:41am
Hi folks ... i just have a dream live like you live in your country.

All of you seem live happy and playfulness. In our country we must fight even that thing IS our right.

Yes, i must not complain and moaning here.
The show must go on.

@ RickM
your post is difficult for me to absorb because my slow brain but slow I will learn .

I mean about delta volume and so on.
Now following Bilal 1 minute trading.

Happy Trading
  • #3,365
  • Aug 21, 2021 8:49am Aug 21, 2021 8:49am
Quoting tommydoginti
5-10% with net gain within the entire trading career (however length) is a more reasonable figure to me,...
Lets assume the global retail traders population at 10million.

5% of 10million give 500,000 long term consistent traders.

0.1% of 10million give 10,000 long term consistent traders.

Those traders that collect significant life changing money is one tenth of 10,000 = 1,000 or 0.01%

My guesstimate look more plausible, logical and consistent with the 29% per month statistics.
Know what you trade
  • #3,366
  • Edited 9:51am Aug 21, 2021 9:16am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} The Ghost Flying Dutchman in financial market Untouchable Forever invisible with naked eye The core of the core Our VISION as Mr. G said He is nowhere but everywhere THE ONLY CONDUCTOR His identity is not important at all. What is important is : - WHAT IS HE ALWAYS DO !! - WHAT IS HE MUST DO !! on our charts. WHY HE DO IT ! WHAT IT MEAN FOR ME ? IS now best time to BUY, SELL OR NO TRADE based on his subtle massage ! Atonement with His intent and mind is the most important things. His care only our money. That is his highest morality in infinity....
ok.... why MSFT stock goes up so steady? what "intelligence" push that price higher?

here from the year 1986:

Attached Image


here my ideas:
1) MSFT stock is priced in USD. USD is paper money printed without limits as US gov wants it. This is one reason why good stuff gets more expensive. USD is devaluated from 1986 by 249%.
2) MSFT grow as a company. All fundamentals look very good - "The software giant is still growing at a good clip as management guides it into a new era of subscription-based products and cloud services. Last quarter, revenue and earnings increased by 14% and 21% year over year, respectively. Those are impressive growth rates for such a large company."
3) Constant demand by pension funds - they buy good stocks no matter what price no matter what do market.

The services they provide are real. Pension funds constantly buy that stock when the money arrives in their accounts for pensions - this is every month. The company grows steadily year by year. Money is printed year by year. Therefore this particular stock grows year by year. I don't see any ghost behind this company's growth.

Here from 2019 December article from Nasdaq:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: msft_ipo.png Size: 67 KB

And here is the answer to all brutal questions "how how how"... bla bla bla... too many activities... too complicated... just buy good companies stocks. That's it. No magic here. Most people here want money and don't want to stear on charts 8 hours per day to earn for living. Most people want capital. Want security. Want fortune.

Now MSFT price from that 154 usd is 304 usd 100% growth in 18 months. Even with covid crash between. Better focus on few but good decisions where to invest. Make some diversification. Ok if not MSF then find other good company... This is way out. Not manual daytrading. Better spend that time learning about stocks and finance. do regular work. Gain some capital and buy stocks.

It is better not spend 10 years daytrading, learning how to trade currencies. Better do standart work. Earn money and buy stoks. Every month 20% from earnings save. Then once a year decide and buy some good stocks. Maybe CRM, maybe Google, maybe FB or MSFT.. plenty what to choose. Diversify. It is better than spent so many time with manual day-trading. Ok if you know how to code EAs then ok... but manual stear on charts, draw lines etc?

My father told me when I was kid and buy some lotery tickets as kid. He said - " Every time you want to buy lotery ticket - put that money in piggy bank. Eventualy after several years you will "win" something more than 0 what you get now".

Every time when you want to trade 100 usd capital - put that money in good stocks via etoro, robinhood, revolut etc various regulated/safe brokers. And all time you now spend on daytrading spend on learning about companies prospects and learn how to choose stocks and how to make portfolious and diversify.
  • #3,367
  • Aug 21, 2021 9:35am Aug 21, 2021 9:35am
Quoting gepards
{quote} ok.... why MSFT stock goes up so steady? what "intelligence" push that price higher? here from the year 1986: {image} here my ideas: 1) MSFT stock is priced in USD. USD is paper money printed without limits as US gov wants it. This is one reason why good stuff gets more expensive. USD is devaluated from 1986 by 249%. 2) MSFT grow as a company. All fundamentals look very good - "The software giant is still growing at a good clip as management guides it into a new era of...

Yeah, don't believe my post.
I'm appreciate your view.

Happy peepz
  • #3,368
  • Aug 21, 2021 9:54am Aug 21, 2021 9:54am
Quoting gepards
{quote} ok.... why MSFT stock goes up so steady? what "intelligence" push that price higher? here from the year 1986: {image} here my ideas: 1) MSFT stock is priced in USD. USD is paper money printed without limits as US gov wants it. This is one reason why good stuff gets more expensive. USD is devaluated from 1986 by 249%. 2) MSFT grow as a company. All fundamentals look very good - "The software giant is still growing at a good clip as management guides it into a new era of...
You made a very good point on investing. Looks like you made a good, proper research on both MSFT stocks and USD. And that research payed out, and you found a good stock. That's investing and to make a good investment a proper economic knowledge is required. Same applies to trading as well.

Trading is speculative unlike investing. But they have fundamentals in common. With proper fundamental, economic knowledge it's easy to make money on both forex, stock market, real estate or even in opening a business.

Without a proper economic understanding, no one can make money from forex or stock market in the long run. Maybe for few lucky years but they can't be profitable for 10-20 years. Some sort of crash, crisis will take them back to were they started again.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,369
  • Aug 21, 2021 9:58am Aug 21, 2021 9:58am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} Its all calculated in price before it happens! There are no market makers who sit behind a desk anymore to implement liquidity, its all algorithmic controlled. Since you started on Corona let me find an example: {image} Do you guys think its coincidence thats when Corona is announced a gap and point of interest gets closed on EU? Inducing traders to go short right before they turn around for 1700 pips? Is it pure randomness? Is Corona real or created to keep the ball rolling? Its all manipulation and if you know what to look for you can...
It's simply just that at times like this, Smart money has targets zones - they may be bullish or bearish based on the current fundamantals, they don't have to create the news, they just act according to the news - their targets is based on the heaviness of the fundamentals.
  • #3,370
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:01am Aug 21, 2021 10:01am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} You made a very good point on investing. Looks like you made a good, proper research on both MSFT stocks and USD. And that research payed out, and you found a good stock. That's investing and to make a good investment a proper economic knowledge is required. Same applies to trading as well. Trading is speculative unlike investing. But they have fundamentals in common. With proper fundamental, economic knowledge it's easy to make money on both forex, stock market, real estate or even in opening a business. Without a proper economic understanding,...
Look where proper economic knowledge takes you in one year. I opened this Investopedia demo account on May 2020:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Investopedia 2.png Size: 113 KB


Portfolio:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Investopedia.png Size: 133 KB


You can see me on the rankings, just type: serhatarca
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,371
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:04am Aug 21, 2021 10:04am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} For instance, the “99% traders cannot profit for 4 continuous quarters” can be calculated simply by powering the 29% to 12 months. In reality the 29% traders profitable probably comprise of many of the truly profitable traders. Gamblers and failed traders have low chance of profitable month(s) to contribute to the winning %
So you go and get statistics to prove something, and when it is explained to you that the statistics that you provided dont explain the reallity of the situation you just said, you go and get them again and throw in some assumptions like that the 29% are probably long term profitable and that the gamblers and failed traders have a low chance of profitable months.
  • #3,372
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:45am Aug 21, 2021 10:45am
Quoting STrading
{quote} So you go and get statistics to prove something, and when it is explained to you that the statistics that you provided dont explain the reallity of the situation you just said, you go and get them again and throw in some assumptions like that the 29% are probably long term profitable and that the gamblers and failed traders have a low chance of profitable months.
I don’t think anyone here know the exact “reality” which is based on truth.

just like asking the OP, I always am open and curious about other reliable information to tell the brutal truth of trading / day trading.

not “plausible” or from someone’s experience please.

The 29% profitable IN A MONTH is an actual number disclosed by law by the way.

5-10% end with profitable outcome is borrowing the figure from doing a business. That is 1 in 10 to 20 that ever earn $1 from trading Forex, or 7 persons in 100,000 people. That is less than the number of oncologists in the world considering the statistics of 10mil forex accounts open (not meaning actively trading). I lean towards the high end considering the yearly summary of HK investors (stock to fx, all markets all trading styles) was 32% having net gain in 2020 one year period.

Trying to deduce the actual situation by gathering more statistics. “Plausible” does not help I’m afraid. I have been asking here for at least some backed statistics but so far not really seeing any.

If there is a study stating 0.1% profitable not by multiplying the profitable % per month, that is something I hope to see. The closest study stated 15% but sample size is too small.
  • #3,373
  • Aug 21, 2021 10:56am Aug 21, 2021 10:56am
Quoting tommydoginti
The closest study stated 15% but sample size is too small.
15% or 1.5million long term consistent profitable traders.
Got to be kidding.
If this was true the traders population can easily swell to 100million.
Know what you trade
  • #3,374
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:02am Aug 21, 2021 11:02am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Lets assume the global retail traders population at 10million. 5% of 10million give 500,000 long term consistent traders. 0.1% of 10million give 10,000 long term consistent traders. Those traders that collect significant life changing money is one tenth of 10,000 = 1,000 or 0.01% My guesstimate look more plausible, logical and consistent with the 29% per month statistics.
There are multiple sources stating active traders (which in fact is number of trading accounts) are 9.6 mil to date.

by the way the 29% per month is an actual figure disclosed by law, I don’t think there would be any guesswork that can overturn an actual figure.

However no information if they are currently active (or just idle accounts) and seemingly is for all markets. So it is likely the actual number of fx traders are less than 9.6 mil, and even less trading actively.

5% of all traders ever gaining $1 since the beginning of trading to quitting trading, just like success rate of start up companies. I agree with you of how few are life changing (it really is very subjective of what is “life changing”, just like approx 0.003% companies are “unicorns”.
  • #3,375
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:03am Aug 21, 2021 11:03am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} 15% or 1.5million long term consistent profitable traders. Got to be kidding. If this was true the traders population can easily swell to 100million.
Not to forget that is one of the unscientific studies that only involved 400 survey participants

I was talking about 5-10% able to gain >1$ since first day of trading to the last

Meaning, a net gain of account size.

it has no relationship with consistency. In fact no statistics has ever related to consistency, because it can only be obtained by long term monitoring the traders performance. Only brokers can do that but they probably won’t bother.
  • #3,376
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:13am Aug 21, 2021 11:13am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Not to forget that is one of the unscientific studies that only involved 400 survey participants I was talking about 5-10% able to gain >1$ since first day of trading to the last Meaning, a net gain of account size. it has no relationship with consistency. In fact no statistics has ever related to consistency, because it can only be obtained by long term monitoring the traders performance. Only brokers can do that but they probably won’t bother.
So is this the part where we thank you for bringing some irrelevant statistics that add nothing to the discussion?
  • #3,377
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:18am Aug 21, 2021 11:18am
Guys, guys listen up.

Whether there's 70% or 90% losing rate that still means most of the people are not profitable. Trading is not an easy thing and not for everyone whether you daytrade, scalp, swing or position trade. Majority will fail anyways.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #3,378
  • Edited 11:30am Aug 21, 2021 11:18am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting STrading
{quote} So is this the part where we thank you for bringing some irrelevant statistics that add nothing to the discussion?
Maybe we should thank you instead. You don’t even have anything constructive to say and support your “reality”
  • #3,379
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:25am Aug 21, 2021 11:25am
Quoting simnz
{quote} You have used a chart quite suitable for identifying footprints in the internal market. If you don't mind, can you please pass the link to download this indicator. It is good for a manual trader like me. Thank you.

These arent indicators but hand placed zones of interest like premium and discount areas where the "market maker" take their positions or unload of their current positions like shorts or longs. You dont need those lines, i just put them on there for you guys to see there is a certain predictability.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,380
  • Aug 21, 2021 11:26am Aug 21, 2021 11:26am
Quoting bfx17
{quote} Mr. Pimpin, you are back. So what are up to this time? Because your last attempt didnt go too well.

And what was my last attempt?
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
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