Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2964 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #59,261
  • Aug 12, 2021 3:18pm Aug 12, 2021 3:18pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} There seems to be quiet a lot of different techniques when it comes to MG. May i ask how you do this for your own purpose? I think the classic way of doing this is to then simply doubling the last entry size for the same distance but without changing direction. I found this image. {image} So based on this example a failed high break on the BillyBar setup you would then buying again at the low (or similar distance) but then keep this distance and keep buying while price is moving lower until hopefully that retrace kicks in bringing you then...
The ESMA margin rules have all but ended any effective strategy to MG a retail account ( I am more than happy for someone to show me if they think I am wrong ). So I would steer well clear of it because trading the size you want to trade you will run out of margin probably on your 3rd entry.

I average into and out of positions these days using the ADR. Recently I’ve been experimenting doing this with scalping which is working out ok. If I get time tomorrow I might post today’s trades on EURUSD, it’s pretty cool what you can get into with a 25 pip range bound laggard of a market.

Sorry to not really answer your question properly but hopefully you will not try to MG your account, it would be a mistake for you to go down this route. Better to find 3 separate non correlated methods with the same sort of expectancy and compound them to buffer your losses, personally I have lost the will with these kind of mechanical systems but they obviously work for some folks.
  • #59,262
  • Edited 4:08pm Aug 12, 2021 3:41pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting Fagin
The ESMA margin rules have all but ended any effective strategy to MG a retail account ( I am more than happy for someone to show me if they think I am wrong ). So I would steer well clear of it because trading the size you want to trade you will run out of margin probably on your 3rd entry.
I do not trade under EU regulations.

  1. 1:500 – up to $100,000
  2. 1:400 – up to $500,000
  3. 1:300 – up to $1,000,000
  4. 1:200 – up to $5,000,000
  5. 1:100 – up to $10,000,000

To open a 24.6 Lots a margin of $6.795,70 would be needed. If that second entry would fail again for the example of -12.3 Pips its another -3.198,00. Plus the first fail of -1.230,00. So for a third entry to offset $4400 with a TP of 5 again you then already need a 90 Lots. Still doable with that kind of leverage. For 90 lots a margin of "just" $24.862,32 would be needed.

So like said maybe a 3-4 failed breaks. I would more worry about the broker not able to get me filled at that size but i don't know. There is a trader regulary trading even far higher lots also with a AU based broker.

Quoting Fagin
I average into and out of positions these days using the ADR. Recently I’ve been experimenting doing this with scalping which is working out ok. If I get time tomorrow I might post today’s trades on EURUSD, it’s pretty cool what you can get into with...
Yes, sure that would be great
  • #59,263
  • Edited 4:11pm Aug 12, 2021 3:52pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting Fagin
Sorry to not really answer your question properly but hopefully you will not try to MG your account, it would be a mistake for you to go down this route. Better to find 3 separate non correlated methods with the same sort of expectancy and compound them to buffer your losses, personally I have lost the will with these kind of mechanical systems but they obviously work for some folks.
Yes i agree. This is the struggle i have. For me it's already hard to get the experience and consistency with just that one setup in the morning and "hopefully" just 1 trade per day to make my money or not. I would have even more time than just sitting there for the UK open. Maybe up to the 3 hours of NY. But then i would already need to make some money from this because i wouldn't have the time otherwise to watch the charts for 8-10 hours a day at such poor/unconsistent results i so far have. I would have no idea how to pay anything like that.

However so far I couldn't find these additional strategies that would fit this style and trading times for me to offset these losses. With the compounding i have a hard time calculating all that. Unfortunately there is no real help i find from people traveled that road before. I guess there is also no university for howto become a successful trader able to make a living from that lol. So all i can do is keep trying and learn from my mistakes and ask silly questions to people i hope can help.

I really don't like to do that kind of martin gale thing but it looks to be at least providing that more mechanical way without having to do so many more trades and strategies per day.
  • #59,264
  • Aug 13, 2021 2:35am Aug 13, 2021 2:35am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I do not trade under EU regulations. 1:500 – up to $100,000 1:400 – up to $500,000 1:300 – up to $1,000,000 1:200 – up to $5,000,000 1:100 – up to $10,000,000 To open a 24.6 Lots a margin of $6.795,70 would be needed. If that second entry would fail again for the example of -12.3 Pips its another -3.198,00. Plus the first fail of -1.230,00. So for a third entry to offset $4400 with a TP of 5 again you then already need a 90 Lots. Still doable with that kind of leverage. For 90 lots a margin of "just" $24.862,32 would be needed. So like said...
I think MG at the same spot is going to kill you. If I do it it is with a separate set up and if it is on the same pair it will be at a different price point using a new logic to enter the trade. Also you need to work out your commission costs as these obviously are exponential, like I said, I wouldn't go down this route.
  • #59,265
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:01am Aug 13, 2021 3:01am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} I think MG at the same spot is going to kill you. If I do it it is with a separate set up and if it is on the same pair it will be at a different price point using a new logic to enter the trade. Also you need to work out your commission costs as these obviously are exponential, like I said, I wouldn't go down this route.
Well. What i ask my self is this. Even if doing no MG and simply waiting for a new setup trying to make back my earlier loss, that new setup i have to place a stop loss and it can fail too? So lets say i have a two more setups/strategies i could apply for the day after the first breakout of the BillyBar got stopped me out, there is absolute no gurantee the next two setups will hit my TP before SL. So i could end up same as good having lost a far higher amount of Pips/%/$ than i actually wanted to.

But maybe this is just the downside to what i have to do if trading with specific goals in mind. I was reading yesterday to pre-define a max. daily stop if day trading with such goal in mind. Like if my trades are at 1% risk reach to have a daily stop of -3%. Meaning if 3 trades will be lost in a row that day i should consider calling this a bad day not going my way and stop trading before risking even more. I have no idea how to perform this in reality however. With a win rate of lets say even 80% a month after 20 days where my TP of the BillyBar then is twice or three times lower compared to the SL on that each trade it would mean a break even month if i am lucky after all costs but more like even a negative one considering doing these max 3 trades a day. It might be then needed to have a TP at a 1:1 or even 1:2 risk to reward instead. However that sounds easy in theory too but here is the thing. See that GBP/USD moving at the moment on a daily base? You will be lucky getting a 5 Pips with your setup. Now if that would fail at a breakout range of 10,15,20,25 Pips i don't see where to "easily" make back a -25 Pips then to be at least at break even again after the second trade would get won for that +25 and if not and having a another -20 setup it could mean beeing down -50 pips for the day instead.

I thought of only entering long at the BillyBar high break today but this thing is moving so slow again... The first first break seemed to have failed again even that 00-04 bias earlier and price fluctuating below the daily pivot point. Lets see.

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  • #59,266
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:04am Aug 13, 2021 3:04am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes i agree. This is the struggle i have. For me it's already hard to get the experience and consistency with just that one setup in the morning and "hopefully" just 1 trade per day to make my money or not. I would have even more time than just sitting there for the UK open. Maybe up to the 3 hours of NY. But then i would already need to make some money from this because i wouldn't have the time otherwise to watch the charts for 8-10 hours a day at such poor/unconsistent results i so far have. I would have no idea how to pay anything like...
Compounding is very simple but with simple things people have a hard time doing it.. I use different lots depending on how lucky I'm feeling, maybe something like this: 1st trade = 1 unit WIN..... 2nd trade = 1 unit WIN... 3rd trade 1.5 unit LOSS... 4th Trade (go back to 1 unit) 1 unit WIN.. 5th trade 1.5 unit WIN.. 6th Trade 1.5 unit WIN... 7th trade 2 unit LOSS.. (go back a unit) 8th Trade 1 unit WIN.. 9th Trade 1.5 unit WIN... 10th Trade 2 unit WIN

So you can see with a typical run rate of 60% if I was just trading the same size I would have made 6 units. Compounding so I never lose more than my bank (except the first two trades which is always your initial risk) the same sequence would have been 7 units.

I look for a 4 sequence run and then I will reset. So ideally 1 + 1 +1.5 + 2 Then restart from 1 again. IF I manage 4 positives in a row then that gives 5.5 units in the bank to cover my next allocation of risk, I'll probably lose the next three so even if I do I can start again at 1 and still have 2 unit in profit which covers me for the next two trades...

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Yesterdays EU scalping, I had four "rebalance" trades over two sessions, what you might call losers, but I only close them when I am in overall profit, as it was had I not been reaching my risk threshold and held them the market came back anyway, but that's trading for you. Yesterday I was only selling EU.

IDDD you have to open your mind and get away from trying to get the market to fit you.
  • #59,267
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:11am Aug 13, 2021 3:11am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well. What i ask my self is this. Even if doing no MG and simply waiting for a new setup trying to make back my earlier loss, that new setup i have to place a stop loss and it can fail too? So lets say i have a two more setups/strategies i could apply for the day after the first breakout of the BillyBar got stopped me out, there is absolute no gurantee the next two setups will hit my TP before SL. So i could end up same as good having lost a far higher amount of Pips/%/$ than i actually wanted to. But maybe this is just the downside to what...
" I was reading yesterday to pre-define a max. daily stop if day trading with such goal in mind. Like if my trades are at 1% risk reach to have a daily stop of -3%. Meaning if 3 trades will be lost in a row that day i should consider calling this a bad day not going my way and stop trading before risking even more."

Works for some, personally if I get punched in the face I'll punch back harder and don't back down. Reading that crap written by these people who can't trade makes my blood boil.
  • #59,268
  • Edited 3:47am Aug 13, 2021 3:35am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting Fagin
Works for some, personally if I get punched in the face I'll punch back harder and don't back down. Reading that crap written by these people who can't trade makes my blood boil.
That pretty much reflects my personal impression

But somewhere i would need to have a daily limit even if not set it stone. Like said, if the daily goal is to make 5 Pips at 10 lots ($500) and i have three setups/stragies for the day to get me there. At a 1:1 risk to reward per setup that would give me a -15 Pips (-$1500).

Look how many times price is just fluctuating that -5 Pips in a second just to change direction again. How likely it is to achieve a high win rate with such tight stop loss per entry? I would most likely get stopped out 20 out of 22 days.

On the other hand having a stop loss of -20 Pips or -$2000 on each setup. Losing three such trades in a row would mean beeing effectively net negative -$6k for the day or -60 Pips. It would need me to have 12 more winning days after such losing day at the +5 TP just to be back to break even and actually a bit more due to what was paid in spread and com.

So yes fighting back great, but i do not have millions in my account and risking half of my account on a single day to fight that back might be not so good of an idea for a beginner or even a experienced professional. And i am already risk friendly and risking far more than the common 1% per entry here.

So i guess i need some different approach, do the marting gale in any way or having potentially tons of more entries/trades splitted at a smaller trade size per day. I guess this is what many do and be more considered as scalping. But i wouldn't feel comfortable with that having to sit in front of my chart all day long doing maybe a 50 or more entries per day on a M1 chart or so where risking 1 Pip to make 2 Pips or similar. Having more than 3 entries/trades per day already feels a lot to me and thats where things get uncomfortable for me still finding thetime for other things than trading.

Or to put it more simple. My average monthly goal would be to make a min. $10k at the lowest entries/trades per day possible. Currently that is focused to make a entry per day at 10 lots targeting $500 and calling it a day whenever these 5 Pips net are reached

Edit 09:37 | Okay. The first break of the Low of the BillyBar delivered the +5 TP without hitting the high. So no fail, all good. However as my "bias" (i hate that word) was somehow to only enter long today here i am now effectively still flat for the day having no second strategy left to still make it to my daily goal or lose some.

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  • #59,269
  • Aug 13, 2021 3:40am Aug 13, 2021 3:40am
Just for reference......the drummer tried Martingale

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  • #59,270
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:12am Aug 13, 2021 4:12am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Claudia's FTSE type trade - 7:45am to 8am break doing well methinks. {image}
Another good break. Will take a closer look over the week end and put some stats together.
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  • #59,271
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:19am Aug 13, 2021 4:19am
Good weekend to all. Removed my pending buy on GU and stay flat for today. Going to the Gym now. Still can't afford that nice looking personal coach hah.

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  • #59,272
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:31am Aug 13, 2021 4:31am
@ Lem - check out Newbury. Adam and Hayley have rides and Gosden is around. Throw in Hollie Doyle who can pull some surprises and it's a great afternoon for me !
  • #59,273
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:37am Aug 13, 2021 4:37am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Another good break. Will take a closer look over the week end and put some stats together. {image}
Good catch. Have stopped monitoring the NTBB FTSE after i thought that staying at GU only would be enough for me at the moment.

But it stopped moving somehow. The low volatility is really shocking. Again we are 3,5 hours in the UK session and we have a range of 26 Pips so far.

Maybe these indices like FTSE, DAX are better for that sort of day trading i am looking at. Or maybe even Crypto. But again, really not sure.

Anyways. Good weekend to you too Claudia, how you after your hospital escapade?
  • #59,274
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:41am Aug 13, 2021 4:41am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Good catch. Have stopped monitoring the NTBB FTSE after i thought that staying at GU only would be enough for me at the moment. But it stopped moving somehow. The low volatility is really shocking. Again we are 3,5 hours in the UK session and we have a range of 26 Pips so far. Maybe these indices like FTSE, DAX are better for that sort of day trading i am looking at. Or maybe even Crypto. But again, really not sure. Anyways. Good weekend to you too Claudia, how you after your hospital escapade?
I'm fine thanks. Good weekend to you and all.

As it's Friday will post some music later - might wake Lem up lol.
  • #59,275
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:47am Aug 13, 2021 4:47am
Quoting lddd
Good weekend to all. Removed my pending buy on GU and stay flat for today. Going to the Gym now. Still can't afford that nice looking personal coach hah. {image}
Thanks...have a Gr88 weekend...
My journey to work today, not quite 400 bucks earned but not a long journey either.
A lot to be said for living rural..

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Onwards and upwards...
  • #59,276
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:51am Aug 13, 2021 4:51am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Thanks...have a Gr88 weekend... My journey to work today, not quite 400 bucks earned but not a long journey either. A lot to be said for living rural.. {image}
Have you seen who is playing on Sunday 14.00 UK time ?
  • #59,277
  • Aug 13, 2021 4:55am Aug 13, 2021 4:55am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Thanks...have a Gr88 weekend... My journey to work today, not quite 400 bucks earned but not a long journey either. A lot to be said for living rural.. {image}
That is good mate. My journey to work takes me from bed to the living room where my computer is then located but It can be boring at times being that isolated every day without seeing another person’s face. I started to look for co-working spaces or rent some office just to get the working place separated from being home nearly all day instead of leaving for sports or to buy something to put into the fridge at times. But also not so easy to find something during these constant lockdown situations.
  • #59,278
  • Aug 13, 2021 5:04am Aug 13, 2021 5:04am
Quoting lddd
{quote} That is good mate. My journey to work takes me from bed to the living room where my computer is then located but It can be boring at times being that isolated every day without seeing another person’s face. I started to look for co-working spaces or rent some office just to get the working place separated from being home nearly all day instead of leaving for sports or to buy something to put into the fridge at times. But also not so easy to find something during these constant lockdown situations.
Try hospital for a couple of days. Take your laptop you get free wi-fi and free food three times a day lol but avoid endoscopy !
  • #59,279
  • Aug 13, 2021 5:23am Aug 13, 2021 5:23am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Try hospital for a couple of days. Take your laptop you get free wi-fi and free food three times a day lol but avoid endoscopy !
  • #59,280
  • Aug 13, 2021 5:28am Aug 13, 2021 5:28am
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Onwards and upwards...
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