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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #59,241
  • Aug 11, 2021 6:26am Aug 11, 2021 6:26am
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Based on this Weekly chart of GBP/USD.

Is that last week of february perhaps an early indication/warning sign that "overall market conditions" (you always hear about that) changed? I mean because it there closed lower than the previous week and since there we are pretty much in a 600 Pips range going up and down a dozens of times. While the move before that looked far more smooth in one direction to the upside.

Now i am not sure because actually there were a few weeks that seemed to have closed below the low of the prior week but then the next week price still managed to keep on with the upwards move.

Anyways to me personally i think its much more important to have a strategy that is working well in all kind of market conditions especially if you do NOT want to trade more than one specific market. Would anyone disagree? So what i mean by that is you could otherwise easily keep switching from A to B because you think something changed just to then find out its actually back to normal and the market you changed trading to wasn't any much easier in reality.

I think Billy said to me some weeks before that i have to be flexible as a trader and lookout for the "easy money" after i asked him why he suddenly stopped posting his BillyBar entries on a daily base like before and instead started to post about DAX, Nifty and all that.

Maybe he is right with that, maybe not. To me it seems to make no real difference and it would probably be better to find something that is just working no matter the overall market condition. Maybe i just have to find that "recovery" plan for the BillyBar therefor, get a few more setups for the day i could then try to make back my earlier loss while still closing the day profitable or break even at least but without doing it in such gambling way of not knowing what and when.

Anyways. I am off for today and give you a rest. Cheers. And a good/profitable day to all of you.
  • #59,242
  • Aug 11, 2021 6:43am Aug 11, 2021 6:43am
Quoting lddd
{image} Based on this Weekly chart of GBP/USD. Is that last week of february perhaps an early indication/warning sign that "overall market conditions" (you always hear about that) changed? I mean because it there closed lower than the previous week and since there we are pretty much in a 600 Pips range going up and down a dozens of times. While the move before that looked far more smooth in one direction to the upside. Now i am not sure because actually there were a few weeks that seemed to have closed below the low of the prior week but then the...
The only thing you need is an edge. I think you are looking too deep into things which is giving you confusion. Its not a criticism but just an observation.
  • #59,243
  • Aug 11, 2021 7:43am Aug 11, 2021 7:43am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} I have a mechanical system I haven't used in ages I'll dig it out later and you can have a look at it (for free)
Claudia's FTSE type trade - 7:45am to 8am break doing well methinks.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,244
  • Aug 11, 2021 9:07am Aug 11, 2021 9:07am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Claudia's FTSE type trade - 7:45am to 8am break doing well methinks. {image}
Yep it's pretty good although I never seem to be able to find any consistency trading a London breakout unless I martingale the hell out of it at least once a month..

A chap I traded for lived in the Far East and I traded the Frankfurt/London session for him while we tried to get an EA up and running. To cut a long story short he mysteriously disappeared but he was a bit dodgy anyway so I wasn't surprised!

Anyway we measured the longest body 5 min candle during the Asian session and our trigger (long or short) was the next body candle longer than the Asian candle AFTER 7am GMT open. Stop was the high/low of that candle and the trade was executed on the close. A 2 to 1 set and forget target based on starting equity, one trade per pair per day. We started developing bias methods/martingale etc but eventually it fell apart when he got caught by the CIA or whatever ended him.. and that was that.
  • #59,245
  • Aug 11, 2021 12:03pm Aug 11, 2021 12:03pm
Quoting herewego
{quote} The only thing you need is an edge. I think you are looking too deep into things which is giving you confusion. Its not a criticism but just an observation.
Hi. It's not in my intention to look into things to deep. I am more the keep it simple type of a guy. BUT, it's also very easy to lose a lot of money not looking at things at all.

"The only thing you need is an edge". <- That is quiet a bold statement. If it would be "only" i would be already retired from trading?

The question was only/simple why you would prefer trading furtures for the 5 Pips a day and what your approach would loook like to realize that.

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So the BillyBar setup today worked out in both directions after only touching the low and high once (wohoo). And that even on a 5.5 Pips range, a rare event.

It touched the low and gave the +5, it touched the high and gave the +5. Even some more now but that would't bother me any longer once i would have achieved to the +5 Pips net for the day. More important would be not to getting "whipped to death" and knowing how to either filter out such whipsaw days before the day started or having a real plan how to make back what ever got lost on the first, second, third or so on breaks i then would have entered.

What Fagin said "martingale the hell out of it". I think he nailed it. However i am still not sure how to realize that in my way. Having 3 breaks on a range of lets say 20 Pips that failed to reach the take profit and my initital entry would be 10 Lots to be able to call it a day (after that worked). For the second entry in case of a fail I would then already need to increase my position size drastically unless i am not looking to make any much more pips instead of the +5 TP backed by the statistics. If that one would gave a fail too i would not even be sure anymore if my broker would then still get me filled on a second entry for XX more lots i would have to enter at. For a third break i would then probably already need to desposit more money to the account to be able to even place a third entry for xx more lots again. Last Friday i think it gave 4 breaks on the BillyBar in a row that failed to even reach to the +5 Pips target after the high/low was touched.

Now if you ask why then not start with less of a trade size as the initital entry. Well because like said, i would like to target a small profit target in Pips to be able to call it a day after reached such goal. Due to the low average daily volatility (just another day so far barely made a 70 Pips of movement) i think it's not too stupid to ONLY look for a 5 Pips and then calling it a day as soon as possible again without getting further involved into that whipsawing crap of price action you see most of the days.
  • #59,246
  • Aug 11, 2021 2:08pm Aug 11, 2021 2:08pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Yep it's pretty good although I never seem to be able to find any consistency trading a London breakout unless I martingale the hell out of it at least once a month.. A chap I traded for lived in the Far East and I traded the Frankfurt/London session for him while we tried to get an EA up and running. To cut a long story short he mysteriously disappeared but he was a bit dodgy anyway so I wasn't surprised! Anyway we measured the longest body 5 min candle during the Asian session and our trigger (long or short) was the next body candle longer...
More likely he was sussed out by an underworld crew and had to do a runner.
There was a very successful trader on here who had to constantly change his online identity as the gangsters would look for successful traders (successful anyone, in fact) based in the far East and muscle in for a cut using threats to family etc.
He eventually said that they were getting too close this last time and he had to go dark for a while.
Haven't heard from him since.
Serious stuff.
  • #59,247
  • Aug 11, 2021 2:24pm Aug 11, 2021 2:24pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Hi. It's not in my intention to look into things to deep. I am more the keep it simple type of a guy. BUT, it's also very easy to lose a lot of money not looking at things at all. "The only thing you need is an edge". <- That is quiet a bold statement. If it would be "only" i would be already retired from trading? The question was only/simple why you would prefer trading furtures for the 5 Pips a day and what your approach would loook like to realize that. {image} So the BillyBar setup today worked out in both directions after...
You only need look at the threads which are 1-2-3 and HOLO to see how an edge can work very well in my opinion. These two methods dont fit my style of trading but it just shows how something done with a strict routine will make money. Also I have very briefly looked at The Dead Zone on usdcad by Lem, and this looks just as good to my eyes.
I only trade futures and indices so Im not best placed to comment on currencies. The big advantage with futures as in ES etc is that the Depth Of Market etc is taken from real pending or market orders data direct from the exchange. In other words it is real data and not what the brokers (retail) are feeding mt4 etc. If i did want to scalp 5 pips on cable etc i would be using a proper data feed, and then possibly executing the orders on mt4 if I was concerned about trade size. Of course this is only if you need volume data for a strategy.
  • #59,248
  • Aug 11, 2021 2:25pm Aug 11, 2021 2:25pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} More likely he was sussed out by an underworld crew and had to do a runner. There was a very successful trader on here who had to constantly change his online identity as the gangsters would look for successful traders (successful anyone, in fact) based in the far East and muscle in for a cut using threats to family etc. He eventually said that they were getting too close this last time and he had to go dark for a while. Haven't heard from him since. Serious stuff.
He wasn't on this forum (at least to my knowledge) but he did use to swap his yahoo email addresses regularly.. this was pre whatsapp/facebook etc years ago. He became a bit obsessive about finding signals in charts that were manipulated by a trader in I'm guessing HK/Singapore (not a bank, an individual trading institutional size either through a bank or a group), this formation of price was a handoff to another trader in Europe, London, US etc to whack in large size, move it and then cash out when the rest caught up. Interesting stuff but waaayyy above my tiny head back then.

I do sometimes look at charts and think hmmm, that looks very suss,, but then again I like to sleep at night and leave conspiracy theorists to argue about the flat world and other wacky stuff. Trading is hard enough!

You are right though, serious stuff...
  • #59,249
  • Aug 11, 2021 3:12pm Aug 11, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} He wasn't on this forum (at least to my knowledge) but he did use to swap his yahoo email addresses regularly.. this was pre whatsapp/facebook etc years ago. He became a bit obsessive about finding signals in charts that were manipulated by a trader in I'm guessing HK/Singapore (not a bank, an individual trading institutional size either through a bank or a group), this formation of price was a handoff to another trader in Europe, London, US etc to whack in large size, move it and then cash out when the rest caught up. Interesting stuff...
I thought everybody knew the world is a disc, supported by elephants, and the whole construction hurtled through space on the back of a giant turtle !
TP
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,250
  • Aug 11, 2021 3:17pm Aug 11, 2021 3:17pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} I thought everybody knew the world is a disc, supported by elephants, and the whole construction hurtled through space on the back of a giant turtle ! TP
Awww shit, I was told a man with a beard made it all too.. now you’ve got me thinking..
  • #59,251
  • Aug 11, 2021 3:42pm Aug 11, 2021 3:42pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Awww shit, I was told a man with a beard made it all too.. now you’ve got me thinking..
Yes - Terry had a beard
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,252
  • Aug 11, 2021 11:16pm Aug 11, 2021 11:16pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Awww shit, I was told a man with a beard made it all too.. now you’ve got me thinking..
God created Man,
Then needed stuff done ... so then created Woman
Onwards and upwards...
  • #59,253
  • Aug 12, 2021 3:08am Aug 12, 2021 3:08am
@Lem - Lingfield this evening got both Adam and Hayley there. Get some good prices on her and she is capable of surprise wins. Worth small e/w's anyway.
  • #59,254
  • Aug 12, 2021 3:18am Aug 12, 2021 3:18am
Quoting claudia1
@Lem - Lingfield this evening got both Adam and Hayley there. Get some good prices on her and she is capable of surprise wins. Worth small e/w's anyway.
Ta much. Don't usually do evenings but will take a look.
  • #59,255
  • Aug 12, 2021 5:52am Aug 12, 2021 5:52am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Claudia's FTSE type trade - 7:45am to 8am break doing well methinks. {image}
Better one today - If I have drawn chart correctly
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,256
  • Aug 12, 2021 5:53am Aug 12, 2021 5:53am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Ta much. Don't usually do evenings but will take a look.
Lem -are you still "Wick Zoning" (into candle body) stuff ?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #59,257
  • Aug 12, 2021 7:31am Aug 12, 2021 7:31am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Lem -are you still "Wick Zoning" (into candle body) stuff ?
Always pay attention to it, yes. You looking for some info?
  • #59,258
  • Aug 12, 2021 12:36pm Aug 12, 2021 12:36pm
Quoting herewego
In other words it is real data and not what the brokers (retail) are feeding mt4 etc. If i did want to scalp 5 pips on cable etc i would be using a proper data feed, and then possibly executing the orders on mt4 if I was concerned about trade size. Of course this is only if you need volume data for a strategy.
Ah ok. Well. I never had a problem with that broker so far. It is advertised to be a true ECN where prices are feeded to MT4 directly by their liquidity partners. Is that a "proper data feed" or what else do you mean by that? I think that is as good as you get it for trading currencies as a retail customer.

I asked because of trade size mainly due to the slippage factor and maybe a order of a 100+ lots or even more would not be executed same as instantly for the same spread as a 10 lots would be filled at. My question here assumed i would have to do this kind of martin gale practice and increasing on trade size after a 2-3 breaks that fails on the setup i do trade each morning, where i then would have to increase the next entry heavily to recoup what i lost.

They also offer the cTrader platform like said, that i have tested a few days before and looks even better to me as MT4 in case of risk management and the slippage factor. They do also have the DOM thing you mentioned but i have no clue about that or how to use it or if that even makes sense in my case to learn/look at.

No, i thought the reasons for you to trade Futures might has to do with that you are from the US where i think CFDs are forbidden (the land of the free...) OR that the reason might has to do with that futures are "easier" to trade because the price action maybe would act differently or it would give a advantage in lower trading costs. But that seems to be not the case so i think there is no reason for me to start trading something else again.

Regarding to the edge thing and the 2 threads/strategies you mentioned. Yes i remember to have looked at the 1-2-3 by "TooSlow" if that is what you mean a while ago but as i tried so far to get the BillyBar working for me in any way i couldn't find the time to start trading/testing even a second setup/strategy so far. Also the entry/exit criteria's are not totally clear to me. The "Dead Zone", i looked at that too in the beginning of my journey as i came here but same thing. They all told me to start with the BillyBar and thats what i did. So i am not sure about the Dead Zone. I see that Lem user to be all over the place trading lots of different things and i have no freaking clue what he is doing, that is all far way over my head and i am not sure if that is all needed to become just a profitable consistent trader.
  • #59,259
  • Aug 12, 2021 12:41pm Aug 12, 2021 12:41pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Ta much. Don't usually do evenings but will take a look.
Hayley's had a good start. 16/1place in the first and a 9/2 win in the second.

Edit: Adam won the third at 7/2. Not a bad night so far !
  • #59,260
  • Edited 3:21pm Aug 12, 2021 2:40pm | Edited 3:21pm
Quoting Fagin
I never seem to be able to find any consistency trading a London breakout unless I martingale the hell out of it at least once a month.
There seems to be quiet a lot of different techniques when it comes to MG. May i ask how you do this for your own purpose? I think the classic way of doing this is to then simply doubling the last entry size for the same distance but without changing direction.

I found this image.

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So based on this example a failed high break on the BillyBar setup you would then buying again at the low (or similar distance) but then keep this distance and keep buying while price is moving lower until hopefully that retrace kicks in bringing you then back to B/E so you can close the hole sequence of entries.

Now what i was doing so far sometimes after faced a fail is different. So lets keep the example of a failed high break and the range is 15 Pips. I would then not simply placing new buy entries at a 15 Pips distance and double my size every time. I would then exit my first initital buy entry the moment price is hitting the low of the range (fail) and also place a new entry of what ever the position size needed to make back that first -15 Pips lost with targeting a TP of 5 again.

So not keep buying like the example image is showing but then exiting the failed buy and go SHORT at the new trade size. If that second entry would fail again i would then first wait and ONLY enter again if price is hitting the high of the range again and then considering this as a third entry to go long again at what ever new trade size would be needed then to cover what ever the loss has been at that time having lost 1 buy and lost 1 short at -15 Pips.

I am not even sure if this is considered to be "mg" then or if that is only increasing trade size on my next entry until i am back to break even so i can stop my day and wait for the next day. Targeting the +5 again at the first place with the first break and in case of a new fail the hole recovery procedure as i did the day before would start to kick in again.

Edit 21:06 | Here, this is what i mean and would have done talking of martin gale. Fail on the first break for last Wednesday. Range 12.3 Pips. My example doesn't covered for the spread/com. So the second entry in reality would have needed to be done at slightly a larger size to count this in so i would be back to break even net.

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And this is the stuff potentially getting you into trouble with such approach. Example, last Friday.

Now sure, if you have a bullet proof way of how to avoid such kind of whip where it then fails to break the range for many more times, great you have a money printing machine then. But so far i couldn't find how to filter these days out in advance. You never know.

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