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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #2,901
  • Aug 6, 2021 6:42am Aug 6, 2021 6:42am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi gepards Its best to pick it up on the footprint chart, the DOM can also help for order balance.
Here is what stop loss clusters look like via data.
This was a Gold day low that ryuryu and myself traded 10 minutes ago.
Notice the numbers in the box show us exhaustion occurring in the Bids & Asks as the market just ran the Stop Loss clusters.
Imbalance is the Yellow or white numbers.
Yes - BUY {image}


Hi RickM,

As always your charts are intriguing

I have read your notes a while back about the PVSRA vol indi (from another thread), and concur with your findings.

I cannot use them confidently, but print them on my charts for the 1min TF only.


And I try to always find some "crossover info" compared to your own.

(I keep studying and looking for some value correlation, but not for me yet ).


I do NOT trade Gold, but printed out my chart just for an interest. Thank you for posting yours.

My day is done with just 8 pips in total on the up & down on USDJPY only.


It is NFP night and I'm bailing out now beforehand, as usual.

All the best to all venturing on. Good pips to you.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,902
  • Aug 6, 2021 6:42am Aug 6, 2021 6:42am
Quoting RickM
This was a Gold day low that ryuryu and myself traded 10 minutes ago.
I have to add one thing for those who don't believe in math. Check this -0.53% level from daily open.

Attached Image


This is exactly -0.25% level for EU (master pair). That's why 0.1 lot size for EU = approx 0.05 for xau and so on.
When I see random drawn rectangles this is so bullshit.

Here we have: strong level, previous day low broken, asian low broken and huge delta. In most cases that will mean the reverse.
Observer effect
  • #2,903
  • Edited 7:50am Aug 6, 2021 6:47am | Edited 7:50am
You may think it's at random because you haven't put in the work, but the price is not a randomized roulette wheel. You Only feel like it because that's what you've put into it. I've only been in the market 3 years and can tell you that there is an ALGORITHM in every market. Whether you want to accept that as truth is not on me, but on you. It doesn't repeat like a pop song, but there are repetitive fractals within the algorithm. In my first year I trusted gurus and people and others that I could be a millionaire in no time and lost a lot of money. Took a step back and actually had a lot of time during the pandemic to study the forex markets. It doesn't matter what kind of trader you are you can make money at this as long as you know what the algorithm is possible to do. Now I agree with you, people overcomplicate things with indicators and harmonics and lord knows what else they try to justify the means of the price at that moment, and mostly contradict themselves. But after my understanding that the market IS an algorithm, I knew it was up to me to figure the rest of it out... with the help of a mentor that doesn't advertise himself but was a market maker at one time. Slowly, but surely, I went from a trader that lost a lot of money, to a break-even trader, to a profitable trader. Yes, there are historical trends that you want to follow. You also want to take the time into knowing that information. Everyone is different so everyone's trading style should be different. Not everyone will trade the same nor achieve the same results. Nor should you. You're never going to win every trade, that is statistically impossible. But as long as you put in the work, understand the algorithm, back your ideas up with historical data, you can be a profitable trader. Create a set of rules for yourself and stick to them. For example, I stick to ONLY trading Cable and Fiber because you have a base currency DXY, you can compare and cross reference each GBPUSD and EURUSD with the DXY. And if I question myself on making a call on those two, then I go to EURGBP or USDCAD, check for divergences in the charts themselves not in the indicators. IDF I can't make a call sit on the sidelines until you have a better to make a call. Never trade Wed-Fri on Non-FarmPayrol weeks. Only make 3 - 6 trades a week depending on the success I've had per trade in the market for that week. These are just some of the rules I have for myself. And I never stray from them either. So don't let this person discourage you from trading, if you really want something, you'll do whatever it takes to make it happen.


Quoting remonpilip
source: https://www.quora.com/Why-are-commod...ent-strategies I am giving everyone some free invaluable knowledge here. Most people, and especially people who profess to know what they are talking about, don’t! They spout verbage but they either don’t trade or they don’t trade successfully. Big hat, no cattle I call it! I find most self proclaimed experts spout a bunch of technical jargon and this and that, but as I said, big hat, no cattle. Now I am not selling anything so I don’t...
  • #2,904
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:09am Aug 6, 2021 7:09am
Quoting joyny
{quote} You Can't say by chart. If you look only at chart and no other data available then it is random system and at any point no matter if that looks like S/R or any other "pattern" price can go any dirrection.
Thank you, you have just made my point. You cannot trade just by chart. It would be like flipping a coin. You should be looking at fundamentals and understand for example why is EUR vs USD going down or up. Once you have fundamentals understanding, you can look at the chart and analyze supply/demand zones and from those zones, you can look for best possible buy or sell entries.
  • #2,905
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:14am Aug 6, 2021 7:14am
Quoting Wags
{quote} Instantly up
I don't think so. Both charts are EURUSD. The first chart is daily and second one is 5 minute. Looking at that daily chart it looks bearish but the reason behind it is fundamentals. USD is stronger and still is. Looking at that 5 minute chart, looking at the patterns and so on, majority of traders will look at that and think it is turning and going up and so on. It is not, and there is the prove that patterns and so on do not work. No matter what, fundamentals are the first you want to learn and technicals are there just to confirm where to buy, sell, exit, place stop losses, and so on. Supply/demand do not work on lower time frames. It works on daily, weekly and monthly. It will give you a clue where banks and institution traders are either buying or selling. You can't see that on lower time frames. Fundamentals 80%, and Technicals 20%. Trade safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,906
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:21am Aug 6, 2021 7:21am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} This person does not look rich. He looks like he has to tell the bullshit 5 days a week for a salary {quote} Be honest. Where did you get these EAs? On forum? If you created them yourself how much time did you spend for the algo? Let me guess your EA even don't have dynamic lot size...?
the video is just to illustrate the text
i dont know and i dont care if the person is rich or not

cheers
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Uncertainty of the market must be embraced and accepted.
  • #2,907
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:22am Aug 6, 2021 7:22am
Quoting BodiesXWix
You may think it's at random because you haven't put in the work, but the price is not a randomized roulette wheel. You Only feel like it because that's what you've put into it. I've only been in the market 3 years and can tell you that there is an ALGORITHM in every market. Whether you want to accept that as truth is not on me, but on you. It doesn't repeat like a pop song, but there are repetitive fractals within the algorithm. In my first year I trusted gurus and people and others that I could be a millionaire in no time and lost a lot of money....
There are many mutually exclusive ways to look at the same exact thing but describe it differently. It really doesn't make sense to say someone is doing something right or wrong. For example, someone could call themselves a trend trader and for the same exact piece of market they captured, a range trader will say that was his range trade. There is only ONE right way and that is making money.
  • #2,908
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:24am Aug 6, 2021 7:24am
Quoting slb
{quote} the video is just to illustrate the text i dont know and i dont care if the person is rich or not cheers {image}
Can you explain to us what is it that you circled on that 15 minute chart. What do you see and is it buy or sell?
  • #2,909
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:29am Aug 6, 2021 7:29am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Can you explain to us what is it that you circled on that 15 minute chart. What do you see and is it buy or sell?
go two or three pages back and you will see

cheers
Uncertainty of the market must be embraced and accepted.
  • #2,910
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:36am Aug 6, 2021 7:36am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I don't think so. Both charts are EURUSD. The first chart is daily and second one is 5 minute. Looking at that daily chart it looks bearish but the reason behind it is fundamentals. USD is stronger and still is. Looking at that 5 minute chart, looking at the patterns and so on, majority of traders will look at that and think it is turning and going up and so on. It is not, and there is the prove that patterns and so on do not work. No matter what, fundamentals are the first you want to learn and technicals are there just to confirm where...
sorry I thought you were just asking for an instant reaction as a visual because I said I see the opposite to what you were saying.

I will keep a close eye on your trades and thank you for the info
  • #2,911
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:40am Aug 6, 2021 7:40am
Closed my sell positions on EURUSD. keeping buy positions on USDCHF adding more buy positions. Will take the USDCHF all the way to daily supply zone 0.9196 price area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,912
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:45am Aug 6, 2021 7:45am
Quoting Techanalyst
Closed my sell positions on EURUSD. keeping buy positions on USDCHF adding more buy positions. Will take the USDCHF all the way to daily supply zone 0.9196 price area. {image}
Wait a minute. EU bullish you said few pages back?
Observer effect
  • #2,913
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:46am Aug 6, 2021 7:46am
Quoting Techanalyst
Closed my sell positions on EURUSD. keeping buy positions on USDCHF adding more buy positions. Will take the USDCHF all the way to daily supply zone 0.9196 price area. {image}

both clean trades
or simply said correlation
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 hh.png Size: 66 KB
  • #2,914
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:47am Aug 6, 2021 7:47am
Quoting kette
{quote} both clean trades or simply said correlation {image} {image}
Nice colors!
Observer effect
  • #2,915
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:49am Aug 6, 2021 7:49am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Nice colors!

one should see what is traded



all luck no can do
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,916
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:51am Aug 6, 2021 7:51am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Wait a minute. EU bullish you said few pages back?
USDCHF is bullish, EURUSD bearish.
  • #2,917
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:56am Aug 6, 2021 7:56am
Quoting slb
{quote} the video is just to illustrate the text i dont know and i dont care if the person is rich or not cheers {image}

GBPUSD
SIMPLE do not trade
for me this is an equilibrium
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,918
  • Aug 6, 2021 7:59am Aug 6, 2021 7:59am
gold

is out of balance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,919
  • Aug 6, 2021 8:04am Aug 6, 2021 8:04am
Quoting kette
{quote} GBPUSD SIMPLE do not trade for me this is an equilibrium {image}
yep, nothing better like trading at extremes
cheers buddy
Uncertainty of the market must be embraced and accepted.
  • #2,920
  • Aug 6, 2021 8:09am Aug 6, 2021 8:09am
Quoting slb
{quote} yep, nothing better like trading at extremes cheers buddy

You are right with your chart
better not to trade or look for another market
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 58 KB
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